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18:13
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
2h
GOOGL
▾
MED
Google's AI cost edge may reset narrative.
Google is trying to regain the AI coding battleground with Gemini 3.8 Flash, its third Flash release in six weeks. The model is described as Google's best reasoning and coding model yet, approaching much larger frontier models on performance benchmarks at a fraction of the cost. Google is leaning into smaller Flash models that are faster to ship and cheaper, which may be where the market is headed. Token prices are at record lows and Google has more room to compete on price because of its high-margin business, giving it a potential edge to reset the stock's losing streak.
GOOGL LONG
MED
18:04
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT
SPY
10-Year Treasury Note
ROSY 1ST
Hard assets
▾
HIGH
Avoid duration and de-risk stocks.
The Fed is making a policy mistake by shifting toward multiple rate hikes into a weak one-and-a-half percent economy and an oil shock; Treasury yields are rising because of Fed expectations and risk premia, not inflation, so investors should avoid bond duration and start de-risking equities.
TLT AVOID
SPY AVOID
Watch 10-year yield near 5%.
The 10-year Treasury note is the key rate for the economy, with 5% as the likely line in the sand; Treasury can influence the curve through supply, and the November 4 refunding announcement may act as a bazooka to bring 10-year yields lower, similar to the Q4 2023 refunding that took yields from 5% to 4%.
10-Year Treasury Note WATCH
Buy ROSY ETF diversified barbell.
The new ROSY ETF, managed by Corton Capital and inspired by Rosenberg Research's top conviction themes, is a low-to-moderate risk unconstrained portfolio built as a barbell of cash-flow fixed income in high real rate and flat yield curve markets plus hard assets, positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar.
ROSY LONG
Own hard assets for pricing power.
Hard assets and commodities have pricing power and hedge goods inflation, tariffs, wars, security of supply, and recurring supply shocks; the portfolio is overweight gold, gold miners, uranium, rare earths, pipelines/energy infrastructure, and base metals.
Hard assets LONG
GLD LONG
REMX LONG
GDX LONG
URA LONG
MLPX LONG
DBB LONG
Oil supported by supply-demand balance.
Oil is held as a hedge against escalation in the war and recurring supply shocks; even if the current war ends, unless there is a global recession the supply-demand balance should still favor higher oil prices.
WTI LONG
Own short duration and EM bonds.
The fixed-income side of the portfolio uses short-duration bonds and 2-year notes plus local-currency emerging market bonds to generate cash flow and to capture areas with flat yield curves and high real interest rates.
2-year Treasury notes LONG
SHY LONG
EMLC LONG
Short the US dollar.
The US dollar is in the early stages of a fundamental bear market, and the portfolio is deliberately positioned 70% inversely to the US dollar to benefit from that trend.
USD SHORT
Caterpillar drop warns AI trade.
Caterpillar is a non-tech poster child for the AI/data-center construction boom because its turbines and equipment feed data construction, yet the stock is down nearly 30% from its peak; Rosenberg sees this as a leading indicator and a warning about extrapolating the AI trade.
CAT AVOID
Mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.
The Magnificent 7 has gone nowhere for six months despite the AI narrative; strong rotational churn within the group has masked that the entire group has not made investors money, suggesting mega-cap tech leadership is stalling.
MAGS AVOID
Watch homebuilders for rate-peak entry.
Homebuilding stocks have already fallen a lot, but Rosenberg would not buy yet; once there is clarity that the Fed either hikes only in a truncated cycle or market rates peak and 10-year yields come down, homebuilders/HGX could become a tactical buying opportunity, especially around the November 4 Treasury refunding.
Homebuilding stocks WATCH
HGX WATCH
HIGH
18:03
Sep 02
Sep 02
NVDA
UBER
U.S. AI equities
Quality and dividend equities
EWJ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia buys Hugging Face software
NVIDIA is nearing a $14 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, the open-source AI model hub, to own more of the AI software layer and democratize model access; the deal could be announced as soon as this week, though antitrust/regulatory scrutiny remains a risk.
NVDA WATCH
Uber cuts jobs as growth slows
Uber is cutting 3,300 jobs and 20% of managers to reallocate spending into ridesharing, delivery, and robotaxi; the cost focus may signal flat or non-accelerating topline growth, while Waymo pulled back from its partnership.
UBER WATCH
US AI equities lead earnings growth
BlackRock's strongest equity conviction remains the US AI theme because it continues to see the largest earnings growth; hyperscaler cloud revenue and AI adoption are broadening into inference and enterprise use.
U.S. AI equities LONG
Quality dividends diversify AI concentration
Within AI-heavy portfolios, BlackRock recommends quality and dividend equities to diversify concentration risk while staying invested in US equities.
Quality and dividend equities LONG
Japan diversifies concentrated AI portfolios
Japan can be an area of strength for investors looking to diversify away from concentrated US AI exposure.
EWJ LONG
Korea Taiwan extend AI exposure
Emerging markets, specifically Korea and Taiwan, are areas to lean further into AI for investors seeking additional AI exposure beyond the US.
EWY LONG
EWT LONG
Higher yields make fixed income attractive
Higher bond yields driven by nominal GDP growth and supply create an opportunity to clip coupon in fixed income holdings, including bank and securitized asset ETFs.
Bank and securitized fixed income ETFs LONG
Liquid alternatives diversify stock-bond correlation
Because stocks and bonds are positively correlated more than ever, BlackRock recommends liquid alternative ETFs for diversified return sources without directional bets.
Liquid alternative ETFs LONG
Venezuelan crude benefits US refiners
US refineries were built on Venezuelan heavy crude; as Venezuelan production grows, it is a massive win for US energy buyers and refiners that prefer this crude.
XLE LONG
Chevron expands high-reserve Venezuela production
Chevron will invest $7 billion through three Venezuelan joint ventures over five years to more than triple production from pre-Trump levels, targeting over 600,000 barrels/day by 2031 with many billions of barrels of reserves and strong legal protections; overall capex guidance is unchanged.
CVX LONG
Venezuela supply surge pressures oil lower
Venezuela production is up 25% and exports up 50%, with production potentially doubling by end-of-decade as US-backed deals displace Chinese/Russian/criminal operators; this adds longer-term oil supply and supports lower energy prices.
BNO SHORT
WTI SHORT
Dell AI server demand boosts outlook
Dell raised its annual sales forecast by $25 billion, the fifth straight quarter its revenue outlook topped estimates, because AI server demand is strong; Dell is a key AI infrastructure buildout beneficiary.
DELL LONG
Broadcom must prove AI momentum
Broadcom earnings after the bell need to restore AI credibility after a 20% post-June drawdown; with Nvidia raising the bar, investors will focus on custom silicon customers like Google/OpenAI and sustainability of high growth.
AVGO WATCH
Ouster leads physical AI sensing
Ouster announced John Deere will equip vehicles with Ouster lidar/perception sensors, positioning it as a base layer for autonomous machines; drone mapping demand, Buy America/NDAA compliance, onshoring, and close Nvidia partnership support physical AI adoption.
OUST LONG
US entrepreneurship supports equities
Greg Fleming is optimistic on US equities because of high corporate profits, benign regulation, entrepreneurial business formation, broad wealth creation, and AI tools that could drive a productivity surge.
SPY LONG
US deficits pressure long bonds
US deficits and rising interest expense are the number one issue; interest payments now exceed defense spending and the bond market is making the deficit concern clear, pressuring long-duration Treasuries.
U.S. long-duration Treasuries AVOID
HIGH
17:37
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT
USD 1ST
BND 1ST
CASH 1ST
VT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Treasuries and dollar have no substitute.
Ben argues he is not afraid of a financial crisis from government debt because there is no substitute for US Treasuries and the US dollar is the global reserve currency. In a safety-seeking environment, investors would still buy Treasuries and dollars, and he sees the bigger debt risk as political rather than financial.
TLT LONG
Treasuries and dollar have no substitute.
If a government debt crisis did occur, Treasury yields would spike, inflation would rise, and the US dollar would likely fall hard. The true hedge is to borrow as much money as possible at current rates because inflation would erode the debt; borrowing fixed debt is essentially shorting the US dollar. He mentions gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and euros as possible dollar hedges but favors the borrow-and-short-dollar logic.
USD LONG
Bonds now offer attractive five percent yield.
As of today, bond market index funds like BND or AG yield around 5%, which is the best yield among the main asset classes. Ben notes bonds have beaten stocks in about three and a half of every ten years and currently offer attractive income.
BND LONG
Cash offers most optionality and flexibility.
In a hypothetical choice among $1,000 cash, VT, or bonds, all are worth the same today, but cash gives the most optionality and flexibility because it can be invested in anything. Ben would take cash even though stocks have higher long-term expected returns and bonds have better yield.
CASH LONG
Use global market-cap baseline for diversification.
Global market cap, represented by Vanguard Total World Stock ETF VT, is about 65% US and 35% international. Ben says that is a good baseline for US/international allocation; investors can adjust more US or more international from there. International diversification still has a place because country returns vary by decade, US dominance is not guaranteed, and international stocks have come back recently.
VT LONG
International stocks LONG
Emerging and frontier markets offer early upside.
Duncan frames emerging and frontier markets as getting in early, similar to investing in private companies: high risk, high reward. Ben adds that the US was effectively an emerging market in 1900, supporting the early-stage upside argument.
EEM LONG
Frontier Markets LONG
South Korea and Taiwan ride AI buildout.
AI could level the playing field for international markets. South Korea and Taiwan have become huge players in the AI buildout, and their stock markets have been going nuts—though concentrated in a handful of companies. This demonstrates that international diversification can deliver winners from unexpected places.
EWY LONG
EWT LONG
Diversify into Europe, value, small caps, bonds.
If the AI trade or AI bubble bursts, European stocks are diversifiers because they are not heavily tied to AI, have high dividend yields, and little tech exposure. Value stocks, high-quality dividend/blue-chip strategies, and small/midcaps also have less AI exposure, while bonds would do well because bond yields would likely fall.
VGK LONG
Value stocks LONG
Dividend Stocks LONG
IWM LONG
MDY LONG
Park cash in simple Treasury/cash vehicles.
For emergency funds and shorter-term savings, most good options now yield around 3.5-4%, including USFR, short-term Treasury ETFs, money market funds, high-yield savings accounts, and CDs. After moving off zero, incremental yield differences do not move the needle, so the right move is to pick a simple cash vehicle and avoid chasing teaser rates.
USFR LONG
Short-Term Treasury ETFs LONG
Money market funds LONG
High-Yield Savings Accounts LONG
Certificates of Deposit LONG
HIGH
17:22
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
2h
10-Year Treasury Note
WTI
▾
MED
Bond yields are back to normal.
Yardeni argues global bond yields have returned to pre-Great Financial Crisis normal levels; the abnormal period was central banks rigging short- and long-term interest rates with quantitative easing between the GFC and the COVID crisis. He adds rates may have normalized a little too fast for some investors.
10-Year Treasury Note WATCH
Record Hormuz flows cap oil risk.
Wright says Monday saw record oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran conflict began, over 70 million barrels, and adding bypass pipelines meant more oil left the region than pre-conflict. He argues the U.S. Navy and President Trump are removing Iran's ability to hold the global economy hostage by threatening oil exports.
WTI WATCH
MED
17:18
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
3h
AI 1ST
AIQ 1ST
SMH 1ST
DTCR 1ST
CIBR
▾
HIGH
AI adoption is non-negotiable like electricity.
Sam Altman argues that AI is a general-purpose technology comparable to electricity and says it would be approximately as bad for a country to reject AI as it was to reject electricity 100 years ago. He believes every person, business, and society will need this 'new commodity,' and countries that do not embrace AI will constrain their capacity to think, grow, and build.
AI LONG
AI compute demand requires huge infrastructure.
Altman projects token usage is scaling from roughly 100,000 tokens per capita per month to hundreds of billions or more, with the heaviest users reaching 100 quadrillion tokens per month. Even with major efficiency gains, the world will need to build much more AI infrastructure, data centers, and more and better chips to make AI abundant and inexpensive rather than a scarce, highly priced commodity.
AIQ LONG
SMH LONG
DTCR LONG
Cybersecurity risks require urgent action.
Altman warns cybersecurity is a top-of-mind issue and that some things will go very wrong unless governments and companies act urgently; this creates a risk-driven setup for cybersecurity attention and spending.
CIBR WATCH
HIGH
17:11
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
3h
???
Tokio Marine
GOOG
BRK.B
TMHC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long-term hold in Japanese trading houses
Berkshire originally announced just over 5% stakes in Japan's five main trading houses six years ago as a long-term holding and has since built relationships, received approval to exceed 10% in each, and intends to hold the positions for many decades while the trading houses buy back stock, raise dividends, and pursue incremental opportunities with Berkshire.
??? LONG
Tokio Marine is exceptional long-term partner
Berkshire announced a transaction with Tokio Marine that includes a 2.5% quota-share interest in Tokio Marine's underwriting book, a 2.5% interest in the company, and a strategic partnership; Abel calls it an exceptional opportunity and great partnership and says Berkshire would love to pursue transactions that make sense for both sides.
Tokio Marine LONG
AI leadership makes Alphabet attractive long-term
Berkshire initiated and added to Alphabet after seeing AI's impact across its own businesses and concluding Google is a significant player; Abel describes the block equity offering participation as a significant opportunity and says these were fundamental reasons for a substantial investment.
GOOG LONG
Data center energy demand benefits Berkshire
Abel sees energy as the key constraint in the AI data center buildout and says it remains a significant opportunity for Berkshire and Berkshire Hathaway Energy; data centers already represent about 8% of Iowa load and incremental load is coming, with Berkshire prepared to serve hyperscalers under conditions that protect other customers and communities.
BRK.B LONG
Long-term homebuilding despite bumpy road
Berkshire is taking a very long-term view of North American housing, expecting the American dream to persist and Taylor Morrison to become a strong asset over five to ten years; Abel sees no immediate recovery or hockey stick and expects a bumpy road, but says it is an industry Berkshire definitely wants to be invested in for the long term.
TMHC LONG
US Homebuilders LONG
Data centers create huge local economic wins
Lutnick argues that data centers create huge economics for surrounding communities and that criticism of their water use is propaganda by adversaries meant to slow the US down; he says communities that invite data centers will win and be better off.
DTCR LONG
Canada underperforms due policies and leadership
Lutnick argues Canada is the worst-performing OECD economy and underperforms because it lacks the right tools, regulation, and leadership; he says Ontario/Toronto would rank last among the 51 states per capita and that Canada is being used politically in the trade fight.
EWC AVOID
Treasury yields should stabilize and decline
Lutnick expects the bond market to stabilize better than people imagine because restored tariffs will generate $300B-400B a year, reduce the budget deficit, lift GDP growth back above 3%, and the Iran economic pressure will be effective; he expects rates to stabilize and decline over the next six months.
TLT LONG
Tariffs drive US semiconductor manufacturing boom
Lutnick confirms the administration is pursuing semiconductor tariffs where companies that build in America get relief and companies that do not pay tariffs; he cites $1.2 trillion of US semiconductor commitments, a shift from under 2% to 40-50% US production, TSMC's $265B Arizona factory, Micron's $250B memory factories, and expects Intel to succeed.
SMH LONG
INTC LONG
TSM LONG
MU LONG
Rare earths are strategic decoupling beneficiaries
Lutnick says critical minerals and rare earths are a key way for the United States to separate from China because China is weaponizing them against the US economy; domestic rare earth and magnet companies are strategically important.
REMX LONG
HIGH
16:53
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
3h
Jefferies’ David Zervos on bonds: Good levels for long-term investors to get involved in bond market
WTI
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil likely drops sharply when conflict ends
David Zervos agrees with Treasury Secretary Bessent that oil is likely to fall, probably sharply, as the Iran conflict ends. He is hopeful the conflict ends and takes comfort in the Secretary's confidence, though he notes timing is uncertain.
WTI SHORT
Bonds are buy for long-term investors
David Zervos says current levels are good for long-term investors to get involved in the bond market. He argues the rise in yields is about rising real rates from a large capital call and expected future productivity growth, not inflation expectations, Fed credibility, dollar collapse, or chaos. He also says the long-run impacts of this investment are highly disinflationary, and rate-hike excitement is overblown, even if yields could break a little higher first.
TLT LONG
HIGH
16:50
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
3h
CVX
▾
HIGH
Chevron Venezuela project accretive low-cost growth
Chevron is investing $7 billion through three Venezuelan joint ventures to triple production to over 600,000 barrels per day by 2031. New Venezuelan petroleum law terms have improved taxes, royalties, and legal frameworks, making returns competitive with Chevron's global alternatives; costs are under $20 per barrel because Chevron's existing infrastructure is in good shape, and the project will be accretive to free cash flow for Chevron shareholders.
CVX LONG
HIGH
16:50
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
3h
WTI
▾
MED
Tariff resolution would grow Canadian oil exports.
Alberta already supplies about 4 million barrels a day of crude to U.S. refiners, which helps keep U.S. gasoline cheap. Smith says Alberta wants to sell more oil, but reaching those conversations requires an overarching U.S.-Canada trade agreement and an end to the tariff fight, so a resolution would open room for more Canadian oil exports.
WTI WATCH
MED
16:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
ILTB Podcast
3h
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Nvidia ecosystem competition drives durable demand.
Nvidia under Jensen Huang deliberately avoids competing with its customers and instead fosters competition among Neoclouds, inference providers, and other buyers. That ecosystem competition creates multiple customers jockeying to drive demand for Nvidia; if any one customer vertically integrates or switches to AMD or another alternative, others are ready to fill the gap, which strengthens Nvidia's long-term demand and strategic position.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
16:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT 1ST
US long-end Treasuries
EMLC 1ST
SPY
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buybacks support Treasury liquidity and prices.
The Treasury buyback program is only about $48B a year in a $30T Treasury market, so it cannot determine rates or shape the yield curve. Its real purpose is to improve liquidity in off-the-run issues and support Treasury bond prices across the spectrum, signaling that US debt managers will keep the Treasury market liquid.
TLT LONG
Fed will hold long-end yields down.
The Fed and Treasury are coordinating to signal fiscal discipline while actually doing what is needed to hold down long-end interest rates, including Treasury market backstops and QE. Warsh is likely playing the hawkish good-cop role while actual policy drifts dovish.
US long-end Treasuries LONG
El Nino hurts emerging markets most.
El Nino is not primarily a US inflation story but will create severe droughts and floods in Australia, Brazil, the Mediterranean and parts of Asia. Emerging markets are almost certain to face more inflation and worse economic outcomes, making the bigger trade an emerging market currency and debt trade rather than commodities.
EMLC AVOID
EMB AVOID
US equity markets are too big to fail.
Markets have become so large relative to fiscal and monetary flows that signaling and market movement matter more than actual policy size. Equity markets are roughly $150T public and $300T public and private, so a 20% rally creates $50-60T of new collateral. That makes equity markets too important to fail and forces policymakers to manage them supportively.
SPY LONG
Commodity weaponization likely raises prices.
Protectionism, global conflict and commodity hoarding are sequestering supply. El Nino may create commodity haves and have-nots, and the haves will withhold or weaponize commodities rather than reallocate them, likely raising net commodity prices.
DBC LONG
HIGH
16:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
Pablo Gil
4h
Unitree Robotics (Yushu Technology)
Component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors
Humanoid robotics sector
▾
HIGH
Unitree excellent long-term but current valuation risky.
Unitree Robotics (Yushu Technology) is a real leader in humanoid robots with revenue growth above 300%, profitability, DeepSeek AI integration and a privileged position in China's strategic robotics push, so it could be one of the great long-term winners; however, after its 629% debut spike and partial deflation it still trades around 139x 2025 sales and roughly 850x net income, requiring near-perfect execution, while Q1 2026 adjusted profit fell 53% and risks remain from commercialization, competition, geopolitics and a thin retail-driven float, so investors should wait for a much less demanding valuation rather than chase the current price.
Unitree Robotics (Yushu Technology) WATCH
Play robotics via supply chain exposure.
Since ordinary European brokers generally do not offer access to Unitree's Shanghai STAR shares, the more prudent way for retail investors to participate in the humanoid robotics theme is indirect exposure through component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors, which benefit from robotics growth while avoiding Unitree-specific valuation, counterparty and liquidity risks.
Component manufacturers, automation, sensors, motors and semiconductors LONG
Humanoid robot adoption may hit inflection.
Optimistic forecasts see global humanoid robot shipments going from tens of thousands of units to more than 1 million before the end of the decade, with China representing a large part of production and demand, and automation helping China offset workforce aging; if this inflection arrives the humanoid robotics sector could be transformational, but it remains a developing theme rather than a proven commercial end-market.
Humanoid robotics sector WATCH
HIGH
15:48
Sep 02
Sep 02
Russell 1000 Growth Index
TLT
Short/intermediate U.S. Treasuries
SPY
U.S. government bonds
▾
HIGH
Equities keep rising; buy pullbacks.
He argues equities remain attractive because earnings growth is strong, valuations are elevated but not extreme, and AI/industrial capex spending is still accelerating. He would buy pullbacks, especially 10-15% declines, and is already modestly overweight stocks.
Russell 1000 Growth Index LONG
SPY LONG
Long rates climb on growth, inflation.
He says U.S. long-term rates are rising mainly because Fed rate expectations shifted from cuts to hikes, growth and inflation are strong, and oil and tariff shocks add upward inflation pressure, while term premium has not increased. That backdrop should keep long rates higher.
TLT SHORT
Prefer short bonds over long bonds.
He prefers short and intermediate Treasury maturities over long-end government bonds because global hiking cycles are now priced, the two-year still has positive total return, and fiscal and foreign-demand dynamics make long government bonds riskier.
Short/intermediate U.S. Treasuries LONG
Stocks beat bonds; stay overweight equities.
She holds an underweight duration stance and prefers equities over bonds because the economy remains strong, the fiscal deficit keeps bond yields under pressure, inflation is sticky above target, and equity earnings are driving returns.
U.S. government bonds AVOID
Gold substitutes bonds as safe haven.
She added gold to portfolios as a substitute for long-duration bonds because it can outperform duration, is less correlated to equity risk, and benefits from central-bank reserve diversification and geopolitical realignment.
GLD LONG
Refined product inventories are dangerously low.
Refined product inventories for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are at red lows, U.S. refiners are already running at max capacity, and seasonal demand is set to pick up, putting upward pressure on product prices.
DIESEL LONG
UGA LONG
CRAK LONG
Semiconductor AI demand remains exceptionally strong.
Semiconductor demand outlook is exceptionally strong because global AI capacity is expanding by 30-40 gigawatts and each gigawatt represents $30-40 billion of semiconductor demand; constraints are adding discipline rather than ending the cycle.
SMH LONG
NVIDIA's sales and free cash flow soar.
NVIDIA remains a powerful AI beneficiary: if growth projections hold, it could generate about $2 billion in sales every week day and $1 billion of free cash flow, with only modest margin compression from supply costs.
NVDA LONG
Ten-year Treasury yields head to five percent.
He expects 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to keep rising toward 5% because core inflation around 3.5% is not acceptable and global government issuance is ballooning; Treasury buybacks alone won't lower back-end rates.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
Fed not hiking could pressure long bonds.
She warns the bigger risk for bond markets is that the Fed fails to hike in September despite hawkish rhetoric, repeating the July dynamic and leaving inflation simmering, which would put more pressure on the long end.
Long-End U.S. Treasuries WATCH
Corporate credit offers attractive absolute yields.
He likes corporate credit over government debt because demand for corporate paper is tremendous even with tight spreads, and high yield offers 7-8% and investment grade 5-6%, all-in levels not seen for three years.
HYG LONG
LQD LONG
Buy Microsoft debt over Treasuries.
She argues investors should consider Microsoft corporate debt over U.S. Treasuries because a high-quality corporate balance sheet looks fundamentally healthier than the U.S. government balance sheet.
Microsoft corporate bonds LONG
HIGH
15:38
Sep 02
Sep 02
GLD
USD FLIP
▾
HIGH
Gold attractive as hedge and monetary asset
Gold's late-summer rally shows the higher-for-longer strong-dollar story is losing credibility. Treasury long-end buybacks, large deficits and debt revived fiscal-dominance/currency-debasement concerns; softer July labor data pulled back aggressive Fed hike expectations; the dollar weakened and money flowed back into gold. Central bank buying and Iran geopolitical risk add support, and traders see a messier fall policy environment that makes gold attractive as both a hedge and a monetary asset.
GLD LONG
Strong dollar story losing credibility
The higher-for-longer strong-dollar story is starting to lose credibility heading into fall as Treasury long-end buybacks, deficits and debt revive fiscal-dominance/currency-debasement concerns, and softer July labor data reduces aggressive Fed hike expectations; the dollar weakened and money flowed back into gold.
USD SHORT
HIGH
15:36
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT
▾
MED
Watch Treasuries for fiscal dominance stress.
The U.S. is not in fiscal dominance today, but preconditions are visible and constraints tighten as public debt rises. With debt held by the public around 100% of GDP and roughly 30% of marketable debt rolling over within 18 months, higher rates feed quickly into debt-servicing costs, making U.S. Treasury markets the key area to watch for fiscal-dominance stress.
TLT WATCH
MED
15:35
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
4h
GOOGL
▾
MED
New Gemini models could lift Alphabet shares.
Google is releasing Gemini 3.8 Flash and a new cyber model as soon as today. Google says 3.8 Flash is its strongest model for coding and reasoning, with better benchmark performance and strong internal developer feedback. MacKenzie notes the cyber model is powerful enough that access is limited to trusted government and enterprise customers, and she highlights that after Gemini 3 reached the top of the leaderboard in November 2025, Alphabet began a massive run higher in its share price, implying the new launch could be a similar positive catalyst.
GOOGL WATCH
MED
15:29
Sep 02
Sep 02
Thread Guy
4h
BTC
BNO FLIP
IBB
HOOD
ANOM
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is a bull market hold.
He is a perma Bitcoin bull; he thinks the worst likely happened at $60K when Saylor selling could not push it lower, crypto is beaten down and sidelined, and after Bessent's comments crypto is looking for reasons to rally with more upside than downside.
BTC LONG
Short Brent oil on bearish chart.
He calls Brent oil horrifying at $96.4 and says he is shorting it aggressively, pointing to a shoulder-neck-shoulder chart pattern that looks like it will break down, even with war and rate-hike risk in the backdrop.
BNO SHORT
IBB biotech chart looks bullish.
He says the IBB biotech ETF high-timeframe chart looks sick and calls it one of his favorite coins, with IBB up 1% at the time.
IBB LONG
I like Robinhood stock trade.
He says he likes the HOOD trade, referring to Robinhood shares, as Robinhood Chain is on fire and the company is aggressively dominating on-chain stock/meme flows.
HOOD LONG
Anom is decent onchain play.
He says Anom might be a decent play here as well, likely as a Robinhood-chain ecosystem coin that can benefit from the onchain/stock-meme mania.
ANOM LONG
Wheat prices rising on supply concerns.
He flags surging wheat prices and attributes the move to Black Sea supply concerns and El Nino, adding that oil is lifting food inputs and bread prices at grocery stores.
WEAT LONG
Avoid Solana while Robinhood dominates.
He hard-rejects Solana as a hold because it has lost onchain thunder to Robinhood Chain; he asks why anyone would hold a coin with no motion, even as he owns Pump and debates the broader onchain thesis.
SOL AVOID
Betting December FOMC no change.
He put on a Polymarket position for no change at the December FOMC meeting, citing Bessent's short-term funding of the deficit, war/oil hike risk, and a 43% coin-flip market with his entry at 43-44.
Polymarket FOMC December no change LONG
FWA token will get its day.
He is fully positioned in FWA despite recent weakness because it is a token that launched day one and aligns incentives; he believes it will eventually have its day in the sun.
FWA LONG
Pawns leads Robinhood launchpad.
He bought Pawns after Noxa shut down because it was the leading Robinhood-chain launchpad with traction, and he believed the top launchpad on Robinhood Chain should be worth nine figures while it was trading around $4M; it has a revenue-buyback token and has since repriced.
Pawns LONG
Paired memecoins tie value to stocks.
He is very bullish on Robinhood-chain paired memecoins because AMM pools directly tie the memecoin's value to the underlying stock, connecting cultural assets to true value drivers such as Nvidia, HIMS, Anthropic or OpenAI; this should raise ceilings and become the new norm.
Bonercoin LONG
Pump launchpad is onchain winner.
He wants to be long both Pump and Pawns; he is not currently long Pump but says launchpads have clear product-market fit, low multiples despite millions per day in revenue, and Pump rallying back to highs would raise the ceiling for Pawns.
PUMP LONG
Stock memes are huge on Robinhood.
He says Robinhood launched tokenized asset management products such as MAG7X/ATPs, and the next leg will be doing things impossible in traditional funds: combining stocks with perpetual futures, mixing crypto assets and stocks, and putting portfolios into DeFi; he sees ATPs as the next evolution after closed-end funds, open-end funds and ETFs.
Robinhood Chain LONG
Farmmi delisting pair is wild event.
Farmmi Inc., a Chinese mushroom distributor below $1 and facing Nasdaq delisting, got an onchain Jincoin money-mushroom meme paired to its tokenized stock on Robinhood Chain; the onchain demand drove the Nasdaq stock up 71% on 16x volume as buyers attempt a $1/10-day compliance and possible short squeeze, but Thread Guy says it is probably a rug/zero, making it a wild event to watch.
FAMI WATCH
Jincoin WATCH
HIGH
15:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
CoinDesk
5h
AAPL
GOOG
META
NVDA
ETH
▾
HIGH
Tokenized US stocks on Base improve access/liquidity
Coinbase's tokenized equities product is a one-for-one representation of the actual underlying shares held in qualified custody in Abu Dhabi through ADGM and partner Alpaca, with authorized participants and market makers able to redeem tokenized shares for the real underlying ticker; this improves market-maker comfort, pricing, spreads and liquidity, while giving non-US investors 24/7 access to US stocks and eventually enabling the stocks to be used as DeFi collateral.
AAPL WATCH
GOOG WATCH
META WATCH
NVDA WATCH
Crypto market healing; allocate to scarce assets
Crypto markets are healing after an extended bear market, supported by demand for scarce digital assets in a world of fiat currency debasement and by improving regulatory clarity; even if the CLARITY Act does not pass, regulators can keep providing rules and demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Zcash can carry the asset class forward, making it a good time to allocate for longer-term investors.
ETH LONG
BTC LONG
Crypto market healing; allocate to scarce assets
The first Zcash ETF matters because the market is waking up to blockchain privacy: mainstream finance needs a privacy layer because public ledgers cannot expose all transactions and assets, and AI-powered surveillance is pushing some investors to rotate into privacy assets; Zcash is scarce, has strong monetary properties, has outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the ETF broadens access for institutional and retail investors.
ZEC LONG
strcUSX offers tranched Bitcoin yield exposure
strcUSX packages the economics of Strategy's STRC preferred into senior and junior tranches on Solana: the senior tranche targets about 7% with lower risk, the junior tranche targets over 20% with first-loss capital, giving USX holders one-click access to Bitcoin yields from Strategy's product line and providing a permissionless, composable DeFi yield product for corporate treasuries and institutional investors.
strcUSX LONG
Solana is fast, composable, institutionally favored
Solana is the chosen ecosystem because it is faster, better and cheaper, and crucially composable: building once on Solana gives immediate composability with other applications; stablecoin volumes grew from around $2 billion to over $16 billion, institutional and retail flows show investors want Solana as the home for their crypto, and it has been tested through multiple market events.
SOL LONG
HIGH
14:37
Sep 02
Sep 02
CVX
WTI
▾
HIGH
Chevron's Venezuelan JV triples production.
Chevron reached agreements to invest $7 billion over five years through three Venezuelan joint ventures, with unchanged corporate capex guidance and strong legal/fiscal protections; production is expected to more than triple from pre-Trump levels to over 600,000 barrels per day by 2031, backed by multi-billion-barrel heavy-oil resources that support decades of output.
CVX LONG
Oil market balanced but buffers drained.
Global oil markets are closer to balance after supply left the Gulf and China bought less crude, but the buffers that cushioned the market have been drained: commercial inventories are much lower, sanctioned barrels on ships are no longer a large cushion, and intermittent Middle East conflict upticks remain a concern, making the market hard to predict.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
14:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
5h
Venezuela 1ST
▾
MED
Venezuela risks losing oil control and sovereignty.
The U.S.-Venezuela oil deal is nontransparent and is not a partnership; it gives a private U.S. company with no oil track record and U.S. defense ties control over Venezuela's 65,000 barrels of reserves in the Orinoco belt and Maracaibo lake for 25-100 years, without Venezuelan participation, meaning Venezuela will lose control of its oil and sovereignty.
Venezuela AVOID
MED
14:18
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
6h
SPY
USO
▾
MED
Seasonally weak market into midterms.
With earnings season over, the market is shifting back to macro risks. A potential rate hike and midterm elections, which historically tend to cause pre-midterm selloffs, create a seasonally weak setup for equities, though the market could still surprise.
SPY WATCH
Oil supply risks are being neutralized.
Record oil volumes moved through the Strait of Hormuz and bypass export pipelines, and the US Navy and President Trump are taking away Iran's ability to hold the world economy hostage, reducing the risk of a supply disruption.
USO WATCH
MED
14:13
Sep 02
Sep 02
UBER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Uber restructuring reallocates spend; stock bid.
Uber's restructuring to cut about 3,300 roles and reduce management layers is designed to free up spending and reallocate capital into ride-sharing, delivery, and robotaxi businesses; the stock reacted positively and drew investor buying on the news even though it remains down on the year.
UBER LONG
HIGH
14:11
Sep 02
Sep 02
Bankless
6h
CIBR
FXI
GPUS
▾
MED
Major AI-fueled public exploit within six months.
Ejaaz argues the rogue AI incidents are a warning shot and predicts a major public AI-enabled exploit within roughly six months, such as data theft or financial transactions, which would make AI-driven cyber threats and cybersecurity demand increasingly relevant.
CIBR WATCH
China open-sources unguarded frontier AI.
China is taking the opposite path from US labs by open-sourcing frontier AI models like GLM 5.3 that are reported to be as cybersecurity-capable as guarded Western models but have no guardrails, accelerating unregulated open-source AI capability and creating a geopolitical/regulatory setup to monitor.
FXI WATCH
Monitoring AI reasoning consumes finite compute.
Josh says monitoring AI chain-of-thought reasoning traces consumes tremendous compute, and labs face a finite compute trade-off between safety monitoring, training, and serving users; this keeps AI compute/GPUs a key bottleneck and watch item.
GPUS WATCH
MED
14:09
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
6h
AIQ
XLE 1ST
INDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI industrial revolution is just beginning.
Huang says the world is at the beginning of an AI-driven industrial revolution and that AI technology has become productive economic infrastructure. This supports a structural buildout of AI capability as countries create their own AI economies.
AIQ LONG
America will lead the AI buildout.
Huang expects America to lead the AI industrial revolution by building the full stack, and notes Commerce Secretary Lutnick is supportive of building in the United States and proud of emerging US companies. This makes the US a favored geography for AI buildout.
XLE LONG
India can build its own AI economy.
Huang views India as one of the world's leading IT industries and sees this as the beginning of a new IT platform. He is excited for Indian companies and startups to use AI, contribute to it, and build a local AI economy.
INDA LONG
HIGH
14:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
SemiAnalysis
6h
SKYY 1ST
Neoclouds
AI compute providers
CIBR
▾
HIGH
Hyperscalers safer than most neoclouds.
Hyperscalers set the enterprise security bar, while neoclouds have huge security variability; only certain neoclouds are approaching hyperscaler standards, and startups spending large amounts of VC on GPUs face underappreciated counterparty risk if they choose the wrong providers.
SKYY LONG
Neoclouds WATCH
Compute access is frontier moat.
Access to frontier models and compute is becoming more important than access to top human experts for winning in math, cybersecurity, software engineering, trading, drug discovery, and autonomous vehicles, making AI compute/model access a key bottleneck and demand driver.
AI compute providers LONG
AI cyber impact slower than expected.
Public data do not yet show a rocket ship of AI-driven CVE discoveries or security patches; open source repos show more code churn and slightly more security-tagged changes, but no clear step-change, suggesting AI cyber impact is arriving slower than security company commentary implies.
CIBR WATCH
HIGH
13:59
Sep 02
Sep 02
CVX
E 1ST
GEV 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Venezuela deals boost Chevron, ENI, GE Vernova.
Chevron, ENI, and GE Vernova have signed multi-billion-dollar deals to grow their businesses in Venezuela as part of the new US-backed oil development arrangement, and Secretary Wright expects many more such commercial deals to follow.
CVX LONG
E LONG
GEV LONG
Venezuelan supply surge pressures crude prices.
Venezuelan oil production is already up 25% and exports up 50%, and output could double by the end of the decade; this supply surge is intended to drive down oil and energy prices globally.
WTI SHORT
HIGH
13:45
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
6h
AI compute/data center infrastructure
SRVR 1ST
XLU 1ST
AI Software and Services
▾
HIGH
AI demand drives unprecedented infrastructure buildout
Tom Brown states AI capabilities have been increasing rapidly and consistently, AI demand is exponential and multiplying every year, and this is creating an industrial buildout larger than the 1800s railroads. That supports a broad long-term investment case for AI compute and data center infrastructure.
AI compute/data center infrastructure LONG
Data center power shortage supports infrastructure
Tom Brown says compute is clearly the bottleneck for AI progress, with a huge shortage of power and construction labor. Countries that permit land and support data center construction can capture jobs, tax revenue, and additional grid power, supporting data center infrastructure and power/utility investments.
SRVR LONG
XLU LONG
AI costs collapse, adoption and value accelerate
Tom Brown notes the economic value from frontier AI labs is doubling about every six months while the cost to access last year's best model has fallen roughly 20x. This cost collapse should cause AI models to proliferate into more use cases and support broad AI software and services adoption.
AI Software and Services LONG
HIGH
13:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
Wealthion
6h
SPY
TLT
▾
MED
Stock market stall could reverse consumer spending.
Rosenberg argues that if the stock market stops rising and the savings rate stops falling, consumer spending will mean-revert toward income, reinforcing excess supply over demand and acting as a negative shock; this makes the stock market a key downside trigger to monitor.
SPY WATCH
Treasury yields may stay elevated.
Rosenberg says Treasury yields may not decline even if inflation expectations fall because the risk premium may not ease, leaving bond prices exposed while real rates rise and economic growth slows.
TLT AVOID
MED
13:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
Supply Shock Created by Big Tech AI Investment Competition: Why Treasury Yields Can't Easily Go Down
005930.KS
TLT
LQD 1ST
AI large-cap leaders
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Samsung and Hynix essential AI memory.
If the US leads the AI race, Korea's memory semiconductor names, represented by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, are essential infrastructure in the AI value chain and cannot be left out. He sees the positive flow as still valid and suggests investors who cannot time short-term swings should simply hold these names through the volatility.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Bond supply keeps yields elevated.
The bond sell-off is primarily a supply problem: Treasuries and corporate bonds are being issued too heavily relative to available buyers. Shin Eol estimates this year's US Treasury issuance at about $12.9tn, up from $11.5tn last year, with roughly $4tn of net new supply, while corporate bond issuance is up 38% versus only 3% for Treasuries. The issuance is driven by AI capex from big-tech hyperscalers and Oracle totaling at least $750-850bn, forcing investment-grade issuers to pay higher rates and lifting term premiums.
TLT AVOID
LQD AVOID
Keep core positions in AI leaders.
The era when any stock rallied just by having an AI label ended last year. The market is now sorting winners from losers, and he expects confidence to keep shifting toward large-cap AI leaders with high visibility, stability, and the power to keep leading. Investors should keep core positions in representative AI leaders.
AI large-cap leaders LONG
HIGH
13:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
WTI
USO
Distillate futures
▾
HIGH
Venezuelan oil supply won't arrive soon
Venezuelan oil production has been decimated by 25 years of Bolivarian revolution policies, and the market is treating Venezuela's reserves as immediately available barrels; it will take at least five to ten years before Venezuelan oil is a significant global supply factor, so those barrels should not be counted on to loosen the global oil market.
WTI LONG
US SPR import cover dangerously low
The US SPR is being drawn down at an accelerated annualized rate and is on track to fall to about 245 million barrels by November, leaving only about 14 weeks of import cover versus 30 weeks at the start of the war; by Q2 next year, when seasonal demand kicks in, the US faces dangerously low strategic crude inventories.
USO WATCH
Distillate inventories critically low, prices high
US distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level ever during the weakest demand period, and as intermodal, agricultural, and heating demand picks up into fall, the distillate market faces extremely dangerous tightness; distillate futures are already at their third-highest level on record.
Distillate futures LONG
HIGH
13:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
UNG
DIESEL 1ST
▾
HIGH
European natural gas prices face upside pressure.
European natural gas prices should face continued upside pressure because LNG deliveries into Europe are down about 20% year-on-year due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG supply. Europe is not rushing to refill and has not set hard inventory targets like after the Ukraine invasion, so lower inventories will drain further and force future natural gas prices higher, raising costs for European consumers and fueling inflation.
UNG LONG
Diesel market tightening on supply disruptions.
Diesel prices are at multi-week highs and the diesel market should remain tight because Ukrainian attacks are increasingly knocking out Russian refining capacity and exports, while Middle East diesel and energy flows are also disrupted through Hormuz. With winter heating demand increasing and diesel serving as the workhorse fuel for transport and industry, diesel cracks and producer profits are rising with no clear let-up in supply losses.
DIESEL LONG
HIGH
12:49
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
7h
U.S. Treasury yields
Interest-rate-sensitive sectors
▾
HIGH
Higher bond yields reflect strong economy
Higher bond yields are largely a reflection of a strong U.S. economy and strong economic outlook fueled by big investments in AI, data centers, and technology; the move is mostly in real rates rather than inflation compensation, so strong investment demand is pushing the cost of funding up rather than tighter financial conditions dragging the economy.
U.S. Treasury yields LONG
Higher yields hurt interest-sensitive sectors
Higher longer-term yields are raising funding costs and mortgage rates and are affecting interest-sensitive sectors in negative ways, creating some crowding out even though the yield rise is driven by strong investment demand.
Interest-rate-sensitive sectors AVOID
HIGH
12:43
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
7h
AIQ 1ST
ROBO 1ST
NVDA
▾
HIGH
AI infrastructure buildout is a massive investment
AI is becoming economic infrastructure rather than a device cycle. Countries need to invest in the AI stack—energy, chips, data centers and local AI capacity—to participate; buildout is tens of trillions, with about $1 trillion being invested in U.S. infrastructure this year and 100 GW planned by the end of the decade at $50-60B per GW.
AIQ LONG
AI is expanding into robotics and hardware
AI is moving beyond software into agentic physical systems embodied in robots, self-driving vehicles, manufacturing arms, logistics/surgical robots and autonomous labs; this expands the AI opportunity to edge hardware, robotics and advanced manufacturing.
ROBO LONG
Nvidia is safest AI architecture, growth accelerating
Nvidia's GPU architecture is general-purpose, fungible, durable and runs every AI model and modality. Because AI infrastructure is expensive and models change quickly, customers view Nvidia as the safest architecture to invest in, which is why Nvidia's growth is accelerating.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
12:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
KOSDAQ Index
010140.KS 1ST
006400.KS
005380.KS
055550.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI rebound after mid-September likely.
The current correction is not a repeat of the July crash. KOSPI is unlikely to break the 6,000 level; the Jackson Hole-driven Fed communication confusion, oil spike, and war noise should begin resolving by next week. After the Fed rate outlook becomes clearer and key events pass, the market can normalize from mid-September, with KOSPI rebounding toward 7,000-7,500 and KOSDAQ toward 920.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
EWY LONG
Sell already broken Hyundai Motor, Samsung Heavy.
Stocks that have already broken down toward or below their July lows, such as Hyundai Motor and Samsung Heavy Industries, show the weakest chart patterns; in a correction these are the names to sell first rather than wait, because they have already lost their leadership and are sliding from lower highs.
010140.KS AVOID
005380.KS AVOID
Buy leaders Samsung SDI, Shinhan Financial.
Samsung SDI and Shinhan Financial Group show the strongest relative patterns: Samsung SDI has pulled back after a second upleg rather than breaking down, and Shinhan Financial has been making new highs. If the market stabilizes, these leading patterns are the first candidates to buy or hold, not to sell immediately.
006400.KS LONG
055550.KS LONG
Hold sideways SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics.
The semiconductor/AI infrastructure story still has positive catalysts: next week's AI Infrastructure Summit with Meta, Google, and Amazon can confirm data-center investment; Dell reported strong AI-server orders and backlog; Broadcom earnings should be good because its AI revenue is tied to AI investment; Micron can surprise later; Korean August semiconductor exports were a record despite the stronger won; and memory prices are rising. This supports continued favorable SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics earnings expectations.
000660.KS WATCH
005930.KS WATCH
AVGO LONG
MU LONG
DELL LONG
Avoid bank/insurance/defensive rotation now.
Rotating into Korean banks, insurers, or high-dividend defensives such as Samyang Foods is not attractive as a defensive trade: they have already risen, have limited upside, and in a bad AI/fiscal outcome rates and bank stocks can fall together. He would rather hold cash than add to crowded defensives at current levels.
KBE AVOID
Korean insurance stocks AVOID
003230.KS AVOID
Watch 10-year yield 5% trigger.
The US 10-year Treasury yield's 5% level is the key risk trigger; if it breaks 5% despite Treasury buybacks and Fed communication, he would reduce risk even if late because it could hit KOSPI by 5-6% and Nasdaq/S&P 500 by 2-3%. For now he is not that pessimistic and expects the market to treat it as a shock, adapt, and then refocus on Q3 earnings.
US10Y WATCH
HIGH
12:22
Sep 02
Sep 02
WTI
▾
HIGH
Oil flows shift from Hormuz to pipelines.
Bessent argues Iran is trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint, but the route will be bypassed within two years as oil moves overland by pipelines, making the waterway strategically worthless and reducing its importance for global oil transit.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
12:20
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT
WTI
USD
CBON
JGBUX
▾
HIGH
Treasury yields reflect rate expectations, not dysfunction.
Higher US Treasury yields are explained by a roughly 100bp swing in policy-rate expectations—from three Fed cuts priced at the start of the year to at least one hike—rather than by US fiscal stress or Treasury market dysfunction. Swap spreads versus OIS/SOFR are not widening, so the Treasury market is functioning normally and credit/default/fiscal-risk fears do not hold water.
TLT WATCH
Persistent oil prices may force more hikes.
The key risk is that the oil/energy supply shock is not temporary and energy prices remain elevated long enough to force central banks, including the ECB, to hike again—invalidating earlier assumptions that inflation pressure would fade.
WTI WATCH
Cooling US economy could weaken dollar.
The US dollar has been supported by US cyclical strength and rate differentials, but if the US economy cools against a backdrop of negative structural and political issues, the dollar could start to decline against other currencies.
USD WATCH
China bonds are safety bond choice.
China's backdrop is disinflationary and stable, and Chinese bonds have been the safety bond of choice in hindsight, distinguishing China from other Asian bond markets that are selling off.
CBON LONG
BOJ hikes make Japanese yields rise.
Japanese yields are high because the Bank of Japan is almost inevitably going to hike, and the only question is how hawkish the forward guidance will be; this argues against Japanese government bonds.
JGBUX SHORT
HIGH
12:19
Sep 02
Sep 02
ERUS 1ST
▾
MED
Russia faces sustained war-driven strain.
Ukraine's drone campaign is designed to make Russian airspace too dangerous for civilian aircraft and to bring the war's costs and disruptions closer to Russia; President Putin has acknowledged economic damage from the strikes. This leaves Russia under sustained strain while peace talks remain stalled and Putin stays defiant.
ERUS AVOID
MED
12:17
Sep 02
Sep 02
EWJ
▾
MED
Japan's reforms worked; next phase positive.
Abenomics successfully brought Japan out of disinflation and restructured the corporate sector by reducing regulation; Japan has already implemented many structural reforms, so it is now time for the next phase, Takaichinomics, supporting a positive structural view on Japan.
EWJ LONG
MED
12:16
Sep 02
Sep 02
CNBC
8h
Energy Sec. Wright on Venezuela oil deal: U.S. government will not be the operator of those reserves
Venezuela 1ST
WTI
XLE
▾
HIGH
Venezuelan oil production can surge significantly.
Venezuela holds roughly 12-15% of global oil reserves but produces just over 1% of global oil, making it a large underutilized oil opportunity. With U.S. partnership, private business development, and improved rule-of-law/contract security, Wright expects Venezuelan production to rise from about 1.2 million barrels per day to well over 1.5 million by the first half of next year and over 2 million by the end of the decade.
Venezuela LONG
Venezuelan supply surge pressures oil prices.
A large increase in Venezuelan oil output—from about 1.2 million barrels per day to over 2 million by decade-end—will add significant global supply and create downward pressure on global oil prices.
WTI SHORT
U.S. refiners benefit from discounted Venezuelan crude.
U.S. refineries were built in the 1960s and 1970s when Venezuela was the largest oil exporter and are configured to run on Venezuelan heavy crude. A U.S.-backed deal that brings discounted Venezuelan oil should benefit U.S. taxpayers and give U.S. refiners advantaged feedstock.
XLE LONG
HIGH
12:16
Sep 02
Sep 02
European natural gas futures
FXY
NZD 1ST
DELL 1ST
MDB 1ST
▾
HIGH
European natgas at one-year high.
European natural gas futures are around their highest in more than a year as Middle East disruptions affect the region's inflation outlook.
European natural gas futures LONG
BOJ hawkishness supports yen strength.
A hawkish BOJ board member indicated he favors faster rate hikes, supporting Japanese yen strength as markets price more tightening.
FXY LONG
RBNZ gradualism pressures kiwi dollar.
The RBNZ raised rates but signaled a more gradual path, which pressured the New Zealand dollar as it lagged more hawkish peers.
NZD SHORT
Dell AI demand boosts sales forecast.
Dell raised its annual sales forecast by $25 billion on strong AI services demand and record server backlog, driving shares higher.
DELL LONG
MongoDB outlook miss pressures shares.
MongoDB came under pressure because growth revenue for its product outlook missed expectations even though earnings forecasts were lifted.
MDB AVOID
GitLab solid quarter drives strong gains.
GitLab posted a solid quarter and was up as much as 20 percent, setting up for strong gains.
GTLB LONG
Middle East escalation keeps oil supported.
Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a reported tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting energy flows; Abeer notes Brent has moved above $95 and crude products are edging higher as escalation continues.
BNO LONG
HPE lifted by AI infrastructure strength.
HP Enterprise shares are higher ahead of earnings and are seen boosted by Dell's strong AI infrastructure results.
HPE LONG
Fed must hike or long bonds suffer.
Cayla warns the Fed under Chair Warsh needs to deliver on promised rate hikes with inflation still above target; if it fails, the long end will react poorly, keeping long-term Treasury yields pressured.
US 30-year Treasuries AVOID
Equity rotation risk near real-yield threshold.
Historically when long-end real yields approach 2.5%, money rotates out of equities into fixed income; real yields are not there yet but are getting close, making the equity trade vulnerable.
SPY WATCH
High-yield demand remains strong.
Despite heavy corporate issuance, State Street still sees strong demand and high quality in the high-yield space, with no crowding out yet.
HYG LONG
High-quality tech withstands higher rates.
Equity concentration remains in large-cap, high-quality tech names that can withstand higher rates; until revenue or margin deterioration appears, investors are likely to stay in high-quality high-beta tech.
XLK LONG
Dollar underweight, DM hikes pressure dollar.
State Street real-money investors remain underweight the dollar since spring 2025; ECB and BOJ tightening pose medium-term risks to dollar strength, although the dollar could still strengthen against a weak pound.
DXY WATCH
Chevron expands Venezuela oil output.
Chevron is increasing operations in Venezuela as the U.S. administration encourages oil companies to return under the new 100-year concession, potentially bringing unprecedented Venezuelan oil flows to U.S. customers.
CVX LONG
Nvidia deal secures open AI ecosystem.
The Hugging Face acquisition would give Nvidia more influence over the open AI ecosystem, keeping it plugged into an alternative that can stimulate growth and avoid revenue loss if closed models dominate.
NVDA LONG
Broadcom set for strong AI-driven results.
Broadcom is expected to report a positive outlook with full-year revenue above $100 billion; strong Nvidia 12-18 month demand may extend to Broadcom's semiconductor offerings, supporting upside.
AVGO LONG
HIGH
12:15
Sep 02
Sep 02
TLT 1ST
G20 government bonds
US30Y 1ST
WTI 1ST
Developed market long-end government bonds
▾
HIGH
Higher global bond yields have no cap
Rising energy prices are threatening higher yields against a backdrop of government spending and corporate borrowing; Treasury buyback expansion is not enough, there is no cap to the upside for yields, and higher yields are coming not just for Treasuries but across the G20 universe.
TLT SHORT
G20 government bonds SHORT
Traders bet 30-year yield reaches 5.7%
Traders are paying for protection in the options market and positioning to benefit if yields keep climbing, including a notable $6.5 million bet on Monday that the 30-year Treasury yield rises to as high as 5.7% by the end of November.
US30Y LONG
Oil prices resurge on Middle East conflict
The oil price resurgence is driven by escalation of the Middle East conflict, and the conflict could persist well into next year's midterms, making the duration and oil price reaction a lingering inflation risk.
WTI LONG
Oil and fiscal risks hurt long-end bonds
The global bond repricing is driven by two common forces: the resurgence of oil prices from the Middle East conflict and long-standing loose fiscal policy across most developed markets with no systematic fiscal consolidation; these pressures are hitting the longer end of developed market bond curves.
Developed market long-end government bonds SHORT
Extreme Treasury action may bring short-term relief
Investors are bracing for the U.S. Treasury to take an extreme, out-of-left-field action beyond buying long-term bonds to stabilize the long end; such an action may bring short-term relief even if it is normally damaging in the long run.
long-term U.S. Treasuries WATCH
HIGH
12:13
Sep 02
Sep 02
CVX
▾
MED
Chevron plans $7B Venezuela output expansion.
Chevron is making the largest private-sector financial commitment so far in the U.S. government-led push to revive Venezuela's oil industry, planning to invest $7 billion over five years to more than double its Venezuelan oil production adjacent to existing operations with state-owned PDVSA; current Venezuelan output is roughly 1.1 million barrels per day.
CVX WATCH
MED
11:31
Sep 02
Sep 02
Bouygues 1ST
TFI 1ST
XLK 1ST
XLU 1ST
EUFN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bouygues has diversified, visible, sustainable growth.
Bouygues sees limited direct Middle East impact because contract indexation from the Ukraine war protects margins, and it has a diversified portfolio, solid order book, good visibility into 2026/2027, plus exposure to data center, nuclear, hospital and energy-transition construction trends; it is expanding in the U.S. and Germany.
Bouygues LONG
TF1 Netflix deal grows audience.
TF1 has a special win-win agreement with Netflix that exposes younger audiences to TF1 content, increases TF1's audience growth and provides Netflix better content/licensing, creating new growth for TF1.
TFI LONG
AI benefits tech, software, and power.
AI is not just about semiconductors; software and power/utilities are seeing real AI-driven benefits in earnings, sales growth is real, multiples have de-rated, and ING remains overweight tech and power to lean into the AI earnings bonanza.
XLK LONG
XLU LONG
European banks, insurers, energy are attractive.
Europe is challenged by lack of AI innovation, data center capacity and energy costs, but its appeal is diversification away from heavy USD exposure; within Europe, stock-specific opportunities are banks, insurance companies and energy companies, some energy names trading at about a 2x valuation gap versus US peers.
EUFN LONG
European energy companies LONG
Oil ratchets higher on Hormuz risk.
The renewed US-Iran conflict and attacks around the Strait of Hormuz are causing energy traders to price in a reinstallation of conflict risk, with oil prices ratcheting higher; oil is up nearly 10% over five days and diesel is up 10%.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
European gas supply remains tight.
European natural gas supply looks really tough with one month to boost inventories before winter; there is growing global competition for gas supply, with countries like Pakistan needing more natural gas, leaving Europe facing a tight market.
UNG LONG
Dell has AI server upside, growing.
Dell's results included a large revenue upside of about $25 billion this year, roughly 10% ahead of consensus, likely to carry into FY27-28; Dell is a big Nvidia partner and its server sales in both AI and traditional inference servers confirm the broader AI server environment is still growing strongly.
DELL LONG
Nvidia defends AI ecosystem with Hugging Face.
Nvidia's advanced talks to buy Hugging Face for about $14 billion are an offensive/defensive move to keep its AI ecosystem flywheel going and ensure open-source AI models thrive alongside closed models, because closed-model players are working with rivals on alternatives to Nvidia's technology.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
11:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
EWY
KRW Cash
005930.KS
000660.KS
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials
▾
HIGH
Hold cash until KOSPI settles above 7,000.
The KOSPI is in a hard-to-trade sideways range between 6,500 support and 7,000 resistance. Foreign and institutional selling is overwhelming individual buying, so the market key is held by foreigners. Until foreign inflows return and the index confirms settlement above 7,000, the speaker favors holding cash and waiting rather than aggressive buying or selling. A confirmed 7,000 settlement would open the path toward 8,000-9,000.
EWY WATCH
KRW Cash LONG
Keep accumulating Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have not broken their key support levels, with Samsung holding 250,000 won and SK hynix holding 160,000 won, while next supports are 230,000 won and 150,000 won. The speaker believes their fundamentals and eventual supply inflows are intact, so within the sideways market he remains positive and would keep accumulating these two semiconductor majors.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Accumulate Korean semiconductor equipment/materials.
The speaker says Korean semiconductor equipment/materials names are worth selectively accumulating because they have already produced profits and equipment revenue should expand over time as cluster construction progresses. He is positive on the group as a structural supply-chain beneficiary.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
Take profits on secondary battery stocks.
After a sharp run, secondary battery leader L&F has printed two consecutive strong bearish candles and Samsung SDI has also shown two heavy black candles. The speaker believes the secondary battery group is likely to rest and advises taking profits on 30-50% of positions rather than chasing the rally.
066970.KS AVOID
006400.KS AVOID
Buy Cosmax on cosmetics export strength.
Consumer and cosmetics sector charts were strong, and Cosmax is showing the will to hold its trend. The speaker says that if cosmetics names pull back, buying at the low can be one way to position behind export data strength.
192820.KS LONG
Watch Korean defense and shipbuilding rotation.
In September, the speaker is personally most interested in defense and shipbuilding. Defense began rising in August, while shipbuilding did not rise in August, creating a potential rotation or catch-up setup to monitor.
Korean Shipbuilding Stocks WATCH
Korean defense stocks WATCH
Gaon Cable's busduct growth deserves accumulation.
Gaon Cable is seeing busduct sales ramp sharply as AI data centers and high-power applications adopt busducts. The analyst report highlights that busduct margin is about 15% versus legacy margins of only 2-4%, so sales growth plus mix improvement can drive a rerating. Coverage initiation sets a 290,000 won target, implying about 37% upside.
000500.KQ LONG
Medytox coverage initiation supports re-rating.
Eugene Investment & Securities initiated coverage on Medytox with a buy rating and 100,000 won target price. Known negatives such as litigation costs of about 45 billion won and US liquid toxin uncertainty are already reflected, while toxin export growth, third plant cost reductions, and improving profitability support downside and re-rating. The stock surged about 13% on the report.
086900.KQ LONG
HIGH
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