US and Iran Renew Fighting, Global Bond Rout Deepens

Name: US and Iran Renew Fighting, Global Bond Rout Deepens
Uploaded: 2026-09-02T15:48:44+00:00
Duration: 8651 s

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 02 сентября 2026, 15:48 | 2:24:11 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Sebastien Page — Директор по инвестициям и глава отдела глобальных мультиактивов, T. Rowe Price

Torsten Slok — Партнер, Apollo Global Management

Ashok Bhatia — Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman

Evan Brown — Guest, UBS Asset Management

Kate Moore — Глава отдела тематической стратегии, BlackRock

Steven Schork — Президент, The Schork Group

Vivek Arya — Аналитик, BofA Securities

Padhraic Garvey — Guest, ING

Kelly Kowalski — Guest, MassMutual

Jonathan Ferro — Ведущий, Bloomberg Television

Clayton Siegel — Старший научный сотрудник, CSIS (энергетическая безопасность)

Ariana Salvatore — Стратег по политике США, Morgan Stanley

Bloomberg Surveillance covers the global bond rout, US-Iran escalation, Venezuelan oil developments, and rising Fed hike expectations. Guests broadly favor equities over long government bonds, with specific bullish calls on gold, semiconductors and NVIDIA, refined products, and corporate credit. The main bond-market view is that sticky inflation, heavy issuance, and changing holder demand keep upward pressure on yields, especially at the long end. - US-Iran strikes keep crude elevated and complicate Fed policy. - Sébastien Page says equity pullbacks are buying opportunities. - Torsten Slok argues rates are rising on growth, inflation, tariffs, and oil, not only fiscal concerns. - Ashok Bhatia and Kate Moore see long government bonds at risk and prefer equities or short/intermediate duration. - Padhraic Garvey sees 10-year Treasury yields moving to 5% and likes corporate credit all-in yields. - Stephen Schork warns diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories are dangerously low. - Vivek Arya remains bullish on semiconductors and NVIDIA. - ADP private payrolls come in soft at 38,000, but CPI remains critical for the Fed's September decision.

Идеи

Sebastien Page Директор по инвестициям и глава отдела глобальных мультиактивов, T. Rowe Price 5:19

Equities keep rising; buy pullbacks.

He argues equities remain attractive because earnings growth is strong, valuations are elevated but not extreme, and AI/industrial capex spending is still accelerating. He would buy pullbacks, especially 10-15% declines, and is already modestly overweight stocks.

Torsten Slok Партнер, Apollo Global Management 31:01

Long rates climb on growth, inflation.

He says U.S. long-term rates are rising mainly because Fed rate expectations shifted from cuts to hikes, growth and inflation are strong, and oil and tariff shocks add upward inflation pressure, while term premium has not increased. That backdrop should keep long rates higher.

Ashok Bhatia Со-CIO и глобальный глава отдела инструментов с фиксированной доходностью, Neuberger Berman 44:03

Prefer short bonds over long bonds.

He prefers short and intermediate Treasury maturities over long-end government bonds because global hiking cycles are now priced, the two-year still has positive total return, and fiscal and foreign-demand dynamics make long government bonds riskier.

Steven Schork Президент, The Schork Group 86:15

Refined product inventories are dangerously low.

Refined product inventories for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are at red lows, U.S. refiners are already running at max capacity, and seasonal demand is set to pick up, putting upward pressure on product prices.

Vivek Arya Аналитик, BofA Securities 91:48

Semiconductor AI demand remains exceptionally strong.

Semiconductor demand outlook is exceptionally strong because global AI capacity is expanding by 30-40 gigawatts and each gigawatt represents $30-40 billion of semiconductor demand; constraints are adding discipline rather than ending the cycle.

Vivek Arya Аналитик, BofA Securities 94:59

NVIDIA's sales and free cash flow soar.

NVIDIA remains a powerful AI beneficiary: if growth projections hold, it could generate about $2 billion in sales every week day and $1 billion of free cash flow, with only modest margin compression from supply costs.

Kate Moore Глава отдела тематической стратегии, BlackRock 101:47

Stocks beat bonds; stay overweight equities.

She holds an underweight duration stance and prefers equities over bonds because the economy remains strong, the fiscal deficit keeps bond yields under pressure, inflation is sticky above target, and equity earnings are driving returns.

Kate Moore Глава отдела тематической стратегии, BlackRock 104:09

Gold substitutes bonds as safe haven.

She added gold to portfolios as a substitute for long-duration bonds because it can outperform duration, is less correlated to equity risk, and benefits from central-bank reserve diversification and geopolitical realignment.

Padhraic Garvey Guest, ING 128:04

Ten-year Treasury yields head to five percent.

He expects 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to keep rising toward 5% because core inflation around 3.5% is not acceptable and global government issuance is ballooning; Treasury buybacks alone won't lower back-end rates.

Padhraic Garvey Guest, ING 131:38

Corporate credit offers attractive absolute yields.

He likes corporate credit over government debt because demand for corporate paper is tremendous even with tight spreads, and high yield offers 7-8% and investment grade 5-6%, all-in levels not seen for three years.

Kelly Kowalski Guest, MassMutual 138:33

Fed not hiking could pressure long bonds.

She warns the bigger risk for bond markets is that the Fed fails to hike in September despite hawkish rhetoric, repeating the July dynamic and leaving inflation simmering, which would put more pressure on the long end.

Kelly Kowalski Guest, MassMutual 141:00

Buy Microsoft debt over Treasuries.

She argues investors should consider Microsoft corporate debt over U.S. Treasuries because a high-quality corporate balance sheet looks fundamentally healthier than the U.S. government balance sheet.