Ariana Salvatore

Mexico is structurally diverging from Canada as a beneficiary of North American trade policy reshaping. Mexico has become deeply integrated into US supply chains for computers, semiconductors, communications equipment, and advanced electronics, now supplying roughly 35% of US IT hardware imports and nearly 50% of US server imports. The north of Mexico has emerged as a vital interconnection hub driven by nearshoring, AI adoption, and multi-cloud strategies. Bilateral US-Mexico negotiations are progressing more substantively than with Canada, suggesting Mexico faces fewer trade frictions and is better positioned in sectors the US defines as strategic.

The US-Iran MOU brings a slightly more constructive outlook for oil, with normalization of flows expected by end of June and marginal upside to prices, though significant execution risks remain.