Venezuelan Oil Replenishing US SPR a ‘Pure Fantasy,’ Says Stephen Schork

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 02, 2026 at 13:00  |  5:20  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Steven Schork — President, The Schork Group

Summary

Stephen Schork argues that expectations for Venezuelan oil to quickly supply the global market or refill the US SPR are fantasy because the industry needs years to recover. He also warns the US SPR is being drained to dangerous import-cover levels. The most acute market setup he identifies is in distillates, where inventories are critically low even in weak seasonal demand and prices are near record futures levels.

  • Venezuelan oil reserves are not immediately available and may take 5-10 years to matter globally.
  • Using Venezuelan heavy oil to refill the US SPR is logistically and economically unrealistic.
  • The US SPR is on pace to fall to about 245 million barrels by November, with import cover down to roughly 14 weeks.
  • US commercial crude inventories are healthy, but diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories are low.
  • Distillate inventories are at record seasonal lows during weak demand, implying dangerous tightness into fall.
  • US refiners are running at max capacity and are the marginal distillate supplier to Europe.
  • Distillate futures are already at their third-highest level ever.
Ideas
Steven Schork President, The Schork Group 0:12
Venezuelan oil supply won't arrive soon
Venezuelan oil production has been decimated by 25 years of Bolivarian revolution policies, and the market is treating Venezuela's reserves as immediately available barrels; it will take at least five to ten years before Venezuelan oil is a significant global supply factor, so those barrels should not be counted on to loosen the global oil market.
WTI HIGH
Steven Schork President, The Schork Group 2:40
US SPR import cover dangerously low
The US SPR is being drawn down at an accelerated annualized rate and is on track to fall to about 245 million barrels by November, leaving only about 14 weeks of import cover versus 30 weeks at the start of the war; by Q2 next year, when seasonal demand kicks in, the US faces dangerously low strategic crude inventories.
USO MED
Steven Schork President, The Schork Group 3:52
Distillate inventories critically low, prices high
US distillate inventories are at their lowest seasonal level ever during the weakest demand period, and as intermodal, agricultural, and heating demand picks up into fall, the distillate market faces extremely dangerous tightness; distillate futures are already at their third-highest level on record.
Distillate futures HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 02, 2026, features Steven Schork discussing WTI, USO, Distillate futures. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Steven Schork  · Tickers: WTI, USO, Distillate futures