Summary
Bloomberg's Michael McKee breaks down the August ADP private payrolls report, which showed a below-consensus 38,000 jobs added, the smallest increase since the start of the year. Wage growth remained moderate, and McKee cautioned against leaning too heavily on ADP to predict official payrolls. The details showed manufacturing weakness but strength in education, health care, and leisure/hospitality.
- ADP private payrolls rose 38,000 in August, below the 47,000 estimate.
- Base pay rose 3.2% and gross pay rose 4.7%.
- Goods-producing jobs fell 10,000, with manufacturing down 17,000, while construction added 12,000.
- Service-providing jobs rose 48,000, led by education/health services at 45,000 and leisure/hospitality at 16,000.
- Large businesses added 34,000 jobs, medium businesses were flat, and small businesses added 3,000.
- McKee said the July ADP-to-payrolls miss means the August ADP print should not be given much weight.