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Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have choked off Middle East exports of heavy crude, which yields more diesel and jet fuel. Combined with strong demand from heating (chemically the same as diesel), trucking, shipping, and military consumption, diesel prices are rising faster than crude and are expected to stay elevated even if crude pulls back.

Diesel will outpace crude oil on the way up due to constrained heavy crude supply and robust diesel demand, maintaining its relative strength even if crude oil prices decline.

Aluminum prices have surged due to a convergence of structural constraints and geopolitical events, including Middle East disruptions, US tariffs crushing cheap foreign supply, and low global inventories, supporting elevated price levels.