Calls
27
#222
Alpha Score 78.1
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Win Rate
55.6%
return
+2.4%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 04
$674.17
+10.2%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 03
$98.48
-0.3%
For the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio, use short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflation protection, short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-3 year bonds via SHY) for nominal safety, and a core total bond fund (AGG) as a recession hedge. Avoid high-yield bonds (JNK) because they have equity-like risk, as shown by large drawdowns.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Feb 17
$91.87
+2.9%
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 11
$104.94
-1.5%
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 04
$332.20
+10.5%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Equity Indexes
Long
Jul 01
$299.36
-1.9%
The Russell 2000 is up over 22% YTD with 67% of names positive and a median return above 15%. This broad participation across 900 stocks with 20%+ gains signals a significant market widening beyond mega-caps, which is very healthy for the bull market.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 26
$153.99
+0.7%
Global diversification protects against country-specific disasters; even with Japan's epic bubble and 35-year recovery, an investor in the MSCI ACWI still earned around 8% annually, demonstrating the power of owning a global index.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 24
$74.86
-1.4%
International equities, especially emerging markets like South Korea and Taiwan, are participating in the AI trade and outperforming the U.S. this year. Overweighting international stocks now makes sense as a tactical allocation while the broadening of AI benefits the rest of the world.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 24
$72.57
-4.8%
Netflix is undergoing a messy transition from a growth stock to a value stock. Ben Carlson owns it, is comfortable with the position despite being down 30%, and would buy more on further declines because he believes the value transition will eventually work in the stock's favor.
Streaming
Long
Jun 17
$69.50
-9.1%
Emerging market equities are up 26% YTD with earnings growth dwarfing other regions, heavily driven by AI-exposed Korean and Taiwanese tech (e.g., SK Hynix, Samsung). The EM index has shifted from China-dominated to Korea/Taiwan-led, making EM the unexpected big winner of the AI era, demonstrating the power of diversification.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 17
$90.42
-1.8%
European stocks offer a diversification hedge against the concentrated AI trade in the US. They are severely underweight tech and have less price buildup, so they would likely fall less if the S&P 500 declines, acting as a port in the storm.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 03
$81.96
+0.1%
For the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio, use short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflation protection, short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-3 year bonds via SHY) for nominal safety, and a core total bond fund (AGG) as a recession hedge. Avoid high-yield bonds (JNK) because they have equity-like risk, as shown by large drawdowns.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Jun 03
$102.56
-1.1%
For the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio, use short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflation protection, short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-3 year bonds via SHY) for nominal safety, and a core total bond fund (AGG) as a recession hedge. Avoid high-yield bonds (JNK) because they have equity-like risk, as shown by large drawdowns.
Bonds & Rates
Long
May 27
$49.62
+14.4%
Floor & Decor (FND) is a beaten-down stock (65% drawdown) that will benefit from a multi-decade home renovation boom. Aging housing stock, boomers staying in homes longer, and locked-in mortgage rates will eventually drive renovation spending, and the stock is a way to get ahead of that cycle.
Retail & Mobility
Long
May 13
$186.82
-13.6%
South Korean stocks, represented by the EWY ETF, have gone vertical in the last year, driven by a massive explosion in forward earnings per share as companies like SK Hynix and Samsung become AI plays. The earnings chart matches the price chart, showing fundamental support. The South Korean market has overtaken Canada and the UK in size, reflecting this AI-driven transformation.
Equity Indexes
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Ben Carlson has 27 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 27 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 56% across 27 evaluated calls, average return +2.4%. Ranked #222 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, AGG, EFA.
