Ben Carlson 3.9 28 ideas

Nike's financial performance has deteriorated with declining direct sales and gross margins, and strategic missteps such as avoiding Amazon, making it a poor investment despite the brand not being tarnished.

DoorDash utterly dominated the US food delivery market, growing from a small share in 2016 to ~70% by 2025, while GrubHub collapsed from ~70% to ~10%. This represents a near-total victory in a major consumer market segment, suggesting superior execution, partnerships, or strategy. The extreme market share capture makes it a dominant force worth watching, though the speakers note its stock has done "absolutely nothing" since IPO, creating a dissonance between business success and shareholder returns. Regulatory scrutiny, changes in restaurant/consumer fees, or a new competitive paradigm could threaten its dominance.

Ben Carlson stated Microsoft is down about a third, is a "big high quality compan[y]," and that the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." The stock has experienced a significant drawdown (~33%), placing it in the context of a broader MAG7 selloff, but the speaker views it as a high-quality business whose long-term prospects remain intact. LONG because the drawdown presents a high-probability entry point for a long-term investor willing to tolerate further near-term volatility. The technology cycle could change, preventing these "behemoths" from recovering as they have in past cycles. The stock could fall further from current levels.

Ben Carlson stated Meta is down about a third and included it with Microsoft as a "big high quality compan[y]" where the "highest probability bet is plugging your nose and buying Meta and Microsoft here and just don't look at them for 5 years." Despite regulatory lawsuits and the failed Metaverse investment, the company's core business (Instagram) remains strong, and it has weathered significant drawdowns before (e.g., -70% post-Metaverse). LONG because the current bear market decline offers a long-term buying opportunity in a company with a proven ability to recover from major setbacks. Regulatory actions could have a material impact. The core Facebook platform is seen by some as a declining "ball and chain."

Ben Carlson presents a chart showing Home Depot stock "getting smooshed" and breaking below support. He notes it is flat since April 2021 despite $9 trillion in cumulative U.S. home sales over that period. The stock has completely failed to benefit from a massive housing sales boom, suggesting all future optimism was pulled forward and priced in earlier. This disconnect between business activity and shareholder returns exemplifies the perils of buy-and-hold individual stock investing. AVOID. The inference is that this is a broken thesis stock. Even with strong underlying market activity, the equity has been a poor capital allocator, making it an unattractive investment despite the seemingly favorable sector backdrop. A sudden, sustained thaw in the housing market coupled with a shift in investor sentiment could lead to a re-rating.

Ben Carlson states, "I was bullish on the housing market in 2021 and I bought Zillow and it's been crushed since then. Done nothing essentially. I sold it a while ago." This is a post-mortem on a specific trade. The speaker's bullish housing thesis was correct (as evidenced by $9T in sales), but the chosen equity proxy (Zillow) failed to capture that value, leading to a loss. AVOID. The explicit narrative is one of personal underperformance and divestment. The direction is inferred from the negative outcome and decision to sell, framing it as an asset to avoid based on failed execution. A new business model or market cycle could make Zillow an effective housing market proxy in the future.

The speaker states, "My only thesis continues to be for crypto that every time it doesn't die, that's the best thing that happens to it." Bitcoin is noted as being back above $75,000. Repeated survival through cycles builds resilience, legitimacy, and adoption, creating a positive feedback loop for the asset. The asset is worth monitoring (WATCH) as its continued existence and recovery from setbacks reinforce its long-term viability and potential for appreciation. A catastrophic regulatory crackdown, major security failure, or loss of core utility could break the cycle of resilience.

When asked what will be higher a year from now between energy stocks, tech stocks, or gold, Ben replies, "If it was like say software stocks, it seems like that would be the easiest one." Despite geopolitical noise and commodity volatility, the secular growth and earnings power of the technology and software sectors remain the most reliable drivers of capital appreciation over a 12-month horizon. LONG IGV / XLK as software and tech offer the clearest path to growth, independent of messy macro and geopolitical variables. A sudden spike in interest rates (due to inflation/oil) could compress the valuation multiples of high-growth software companies.

"If you own T bills or the BIL ETF... you're paying ordinary income tax on the distributions of the fund." While `BIL` is the standard for risk-free exposure, it is tax-inefficient for wealthy investors compared to the `BOXX` strategy discussed. It remains valid for IRAs where tax drag is irrelevant, but in taxable brokerage accounts, it is mathematically inferior to tax-optimized alternatives. NEUTRAL (Switch to BOXX in taxable accounts; hold in tax-deferred accounts). None (risk-free asset), other than opportunity cost of lower after-tax yield.

"Brent oil... was up 8% yesterday... Natural gas prices [in Europe] up 35%." A geopolitical supply shock (Iran strikes/Hormuz concerns) is driving input prices higher. While the US is energy independent, global pricing mechanisms (Brent/Nat Gas) are spiking, acting as an inflationary tax and boosting energy commodities. Long energy commodities as a hedge against the geopolitical flare-up. AI/Deflationary forces eventually trumping inflation narratives (as they have historically).

The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).

Ben notes that in "weak dollar regimes," International stocks tend to outperform US stocks significantly. He explicitly adds, "Gold outperforms by a ton when the dollar is down." The current environment (referenced by the viewer's currency drag and Ben's charts) suggests a shifting currency regime. If the USD continues to decline or remains weak, the multi-year tailwind for US stocks reverses, favoring assets denominated in foreign currencies and hard assets like Gold. Long International Developed Markets and Gold as a hedge against USD devaluation. A resurgence in the US Dollar (DXY) due to a "flight to safety" event or hawkish Fed policy relative to other central banks.