Calls
30
#293
Alpha Score 77.1
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Win Rate
50.0%
return
+4.3%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 04
$674.17
+13.0%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 03
$98.48
-1.7%
For the bond portion of a 60/40 portfolio, use short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflation protection, short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-3 year bonds via SHY) for nominal safety, and a core total bond fund (AGG) as a recession hedge. Avoid high-yield bonds (JNK) because they have equity-like risk, as shown by large drawdowns.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Feb 25
$43.44
+1.5%
The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).
The prevailing doom narrative is that AI destroys jobs and income, crushing the economy. If AI is deflationary and replaces digital labor, the "Physical World" becomes the primary store of value. Furthermore, if AI causes deflation, the Fed will cut rates and the government may print money, both of which historically cause housing prices to skyrocket. Real Estate is the "best AI hedge" because it cannot be digitized or automated away. Mass unemployment (10%+) leads to mortgage defaults and a housing crash (the specific bear case cited in the Catrini piece).
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 17
$91.87
+3.8%
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
"We are looking at the worst start to the year for US stocks versus MSCI World since 1995... European stocks, Pacific stocks... are just smoking the S&P." A combination of a potentially weakening dollar, "Sell America" sentiment due to political/AI risks, and attractive valuations abroad is driving capital overseas. The momentum is now self-reinforcing as these markets hit multi-year highs. LONG International Equities (Developed and Emerging) to chase the momentum and valuation gap. A sudden strengthening of the US Dollar or global geopolitical instability.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 11
$104.94
+1.5%
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes.
Equity Indexes
Long
Feb 04
$332.20
+13.0%
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
"Since 1928, the US stock market is up 73% of all years. Since 1950, 80% of the time over 12-month periods, the stock market is up." Because the market has a statistically high "win rate" over any 12-month period, holding cash to "wait for a correction" or dollar-cost averaging slowly is statistically likely to result in underperformance. The probability favors immediate, full exposure to the broad market. LONG broad US equity indices immediately upon receipt of cash. "Murphy's Law" timing risk where the market drops immediately after the lump sum deposit (psychological risk, not statistical).
Equity Indexes
Long
Aug 26
$83.29
-1.8%
The risk/reward trade-off in bonds is currently heavily skewed to the upside. If rates fall 1%, investors can make 12% to 21% on long-term treasuries, but if rates rise 1%, the losses are capped at 2% to 8%. Furthermore, fears of a US government debt crisis are overblown and more political than financial. Bonds are currently the most hated asset class, presenting a strong contrarian opportunity, and they serve as an excellent hedge if AI capex pulls back and stocks fall.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Aug 19
$107.02
-0.1%
With inflation remaining sticky and government spending continuing, securing a 3% real yield on 20- or 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) represents a massive buying opportunity that the market is currently ignoring due to recent fixed income volatility.
Bonds & Rates
Long
Aug 12
$91.02
+4.5%
Ben cites Bill Bernstein's framework: putting 5-10% of a portfolio into a highly volatile, lower-return asset such as a precious metals equities fund can improve overall portfolio outcomes through rebalancing and correlation benefits. The volatility itself can reduce total portfolio volatility when systematically rebalanced.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jul 01
$299.36
-2.9%
The Russell 2000 is up over 22% YTD with 67% of names positive and a median return above 15%. This broad participation across 900 stocks with 20%+ gains signals a significant market widening beyond mega-caps, which is very healthy for the bull market.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 26
$153.99
+3.4%
Global diversification protects against country-specific disasters; even with Japan's epic bubble and 35-year recovery, an investor in the MSCI ACWI still earned around 8% annually, demonstrating the power of owning a global index.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 24
$74.86
+2.6%
International equities, especially emerging markets like South Korea and Taiwan, are participating in the AI trade and outperforming the U.S. this year. Overweighting international stocks now makes sense as a tactical allocation while the broadening of AI benefits the rest of the world.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 24
$72.57
+11.0%
Netflix is undergoing a messy transition from a growth stock to a value stock. Ben Carlson owns it, is comfortable with the position despite being down 30%, and would buy more on further declines because he believes the value transition will eventually work in the stock's favor.
Streaming
Long
Jun 17
$69.50
-4.5%
Emerging market equities are up 26% YTD with earnings growth dwarfing other regions, heavily driven by AI-exposed Korean and Taiwanese tech (e.g., SK Hynix, Samsung). The EM index has shifted from China-dominated to Korea/Taiwan-led, making EM the unexpected big winner of the AI era, demonstrating the power of diversification.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 17
$90.42
+0.3%
European stocks offer a diversification hedge against the concentrated AI trade in the US. They are severely underweight tech and have less price buildup, so they would likely fall less if the S&P 500 declines, acting as a port in the storm.
Equity Indexes
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Ben Carlson has 30 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 30 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 50% across 30 evaluated calls, average return +4.3%. Ranked #293 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, AGG, EFA.
