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06:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
03:35
Sep 05
Sep 05
SILVER 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Retirement savers should think like central banks and own physical gold and silver as non-correlated diversification to protect purchasing power against persistent inflation, government debt, and deficit spending; fixed income and homes can be unreliable, and retirees cannot afford to sell risk assets in down markets, so precious metals should be accumulated rather than trying to time Fed moves or waiting for a pullback.
SILVER LONG
Retirees should own physical gold and silver.
Gold has a structural bid from central banks that are diversifying away from the weaponized dollar; annual central bank gold buying doubled to over 1,000 tons, and central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. The macro conditions for gold to reach $5,000—geopolitical problems, deglobalization, global debt, interest costs, and government spending—are already in place, so temporary oil/dollar-driven pullbacks are buying opportunities rather than reasons to wait.
GLD LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
005930.KS
000660.KS
WONIK IPS
095610.KQ
030200.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean memory leaders deeply undervalued, re-rating
Citi turned more positive on Korean semiconductor companies after receiving heavy buy-side questions about tariff risk. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading at downturn-like valuations with 12-month forward P/E ratios near 4.0-4.3x, while Nomura also calls the undervaluation severe and maintains much higher target prices. The memory cycle is tightening, and the speaker expects re-rating when foreign supply returns, though near-term supply may be slow.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Korean semiconductor equipment cycle still strong
Semiconductor equipment and materials names may outperform Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the near term. Samsung and SK hynix are expanding DRAM capacity sharply, the equipment cycle is still in its early stage, second-quarter equipment earnings missed only because deliveries were delayed, and order backlogs rose 135% year over year while share prices fell about 30% from June. The speaker specifically noted Wonik IPS, Tes, and EO Technics as names to watch.
WONIK IPS LONG
095610.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
Tesla Energy benefits from AI power demand
Tesla Energy/Megapack is becoming a major beneficiary of AI datacenter power demand. Tesla is not just an EV company; its Megapack large-battery business is growing faster than its EV business. The new Texas plant started battery pack production in August, and Megapack supplies xAI, which has AI computing contracts with Anthropic and Google. Tesla battery revenue is rising sharply.
TSLA LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
US battery demand is exploding because AI datacenters are driving ESS demand. Tesla's Texas plant has about 50GW annual capacity, and Korean battery companies are set to supply roughly 23GW of that volume. The speaker says the core Korean secondary battery names to watch are Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, L&F, EcoPro, and EcoPro BM.
066970.KS LONG
247540.KQ LONG
086520.KQ LONG
Korean battery makers win US ESS boom
Samsung SDI is the top pick in Korean battery/ESS because it had lagged in US ESS but is now repositioning. It sold its Samsung Display stake to raise cash, is acquiring the GM joint venture, and plans to convert that capacity to ESS lines. Its production capacity can rise sharply, and it trades at about half the valuation of LG Energy Solution relative to fundamentals and capacity.
006400.KS LONG
KOSPI forward PER is extremely low
The KOSPI 12-month forward P/E has fallen to about 5x, below 2003 levels, indicating the Korean market is very undervalued. The speaker views this as a backdrop for potential re-rating if semiconductor and memory momentum gets reflected.
EWY LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
SPY 1ST
KBE 1ST
TLT FLIP
XLK 1ST
EWY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Liquidity expansion keeps asset markets supported
The old Fed-only liquidity lens is broken; Treasury spending from the cash account and reverse repo kept market liquidity abundant even as the Fed ran quantitative tightening. Going forward broad money and bank credit creation, not just Fed base money, will expand liquidity, so asset markets should remain supported and buyable on weakness.
SPY LONG
US bank deregulation unlocks credit creation
US bank deregulation, including SLR and LCR relief plus Fed standing liquidity backstops, is designed to get banks to lend rather than sit on cash. That lending creates credit and broad money, which is positive for US bank franchises and the wider liquidity cycle.
KBE LONG
Treasury will defend long-end yields
The US Treasury is actively managing the long end: buybacks begin September 9, long-dated issuance will be reduced while short-term bill supply increases, and the government is committed to defending long-term yields in the 5-5.5% area. If that cap holds, long-term rates fall and long-term Treasury prices recover.
TLT LONG
AI cycle is still early, not peak
AI is not a peak; demand is still early. Like the 1990s PC-to-internet buildout, data center infrastructure spending is not yet producing productivity, but once AI is combined with agents, robots and industry applications, productivity and earnings can broaden across the AI ecosystem.
XLK LONG
Korea broadens beyond Samsung and SK hynix
From the second half into the first half of next year the core mechanism is broadening: money that was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, or in semiconductors, will diffuse across the broad Korean market. The era of concentrating only in the two semiconductor leaders is ending.
EWY LONG
Samsung/SK hynix recover via shareholder return
The memory cycle is not at its peak and Samsung Electronics and SK hynix should recover most prior highs, but the next leg depends on shareholder return. If buybacks and dividends build trust with investors, Korean semiconductor PER multiples can re-rate even as operating profit plateaus.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Defense and nuclear benefit from money diffusion
Defense and nuclear sectors were not bad; earnings continued, but money was drained into semiconductors. As semiconductor profit growth plateaus and liquidity broadens, these fundamentally stable sectors should benefit from money diffusion.
Korean defense sector LONG
Korean nuclear power sector LONG
Won strength supports Korean economy and equities
Current KRW strength is not enough to break semiconductor revenue, and it is actually positive for the broader Korean economy and equity market because many Korean SMEs carry heavy dollar debt. A stronger won relieves that bottom-tier stress and supports the domestic economy.
USD/KRW LONG
Next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment/materials
Hyperscaler capex first filled the memory bucket; now Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are raising capex, so the next bucket is Korean semiconductor equipment and materials, which is already climbing.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 05
Sep 05
IWF
TEM 1ST
KOSPI 200
KOSDAQ 150
SPY
▾
HIGH
Wait for GAAP operating profit inflection in US growth stocks.
For innovative US growth companies that can change the world, investors should not buy too early while they are deeply loss-making. Palantir is the template: after its first GAAP operating profit quarter in Q1 2023, the stock began its real repricing even though the market bottomed earlier in late 2022. If a company will not earn within three years, investors should wait. Once operating profit inflects, entering even then can still capture a 10x move. This timing framework is directly relevant to evaluating Tempus AI.
IWF WATCH
Accumulate Tempus AI on integrated data platform.
Tempus AI is building a precision-medicine operating system, not just a diagnostics business. Its diagnostic testing creates patient touchpoints and data, and that data is de-identified and sold to pharma for drug development and clinical trial design, creating a second revenue stream. Recent M&A extends the patient relationship from early cancer risk through post-treatment MRD monitoring. Industry tailwinds include Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer therapy, SoftBank's Japan JV, and Ark Invest's large position; Google Cloud's usage-linked financing also aligns incentives. Q2 cancer test volume rose 31% and data revenue rose 28%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive, though GAAP operating losses and SBC remain large. Claire views the growth direction positively and suggests gradual accumulation rather than chasing all at once, with GAAP operating profit inflection as the key confirmation.
TEM LONG
Trade Korean momentum with Bollinger breakout counts.
Using Bollinger Band breakout counts for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150, Korea behaves as a momentum market. When upper-band breakouts exceed 30 and lower-band breakdowns exceed 50, buying and holding has historically worked because retail-driven flows chase hot themes. When both upper and lower breakout counts shrink, the market is in a quiet phase and participants are already cautious; the current quiet phase warrants monitoring and caution. The indicator is a market temperature gauge, not a prediction, and should be used with other indicators.
KOSPI 200 WATCH
KOSDAQ 150 WATCH
Buy US indices after cold mean-reverting setups.
US equities are mean-reverting in this indicator, unlike Korea. When upper-band breakouts are numerous, US markets tend to rest or pull back. When lower-band breakdowns are numerous, and especially when the index has drawn down about 15% or more, buying S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has historically had about a 74% win rate. If the market does not pull back to -15%, the data suggests not buying. Daily Bollinger monitoring is less useful; VIX or index-level fear can suffice. The indicator should be used as a market temperature gauge rather than exact daily timing.
SPY WATCH
^NDX WATCH
HIGH
23:52
Sep 04
Sep 04
US technology/AI market
AI Data Center Infrastructure
NVDA
San Francisco residential real estate
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech euphoria has roughly three more years.
Chamath argues the current market is in the early part of a real tech/AI euphoria cycle, not yet 1999. He says the underlying market realities are real but participants are guessing how far forward to price them, and he does not see it stopping, expecting roughly three more years of this environment.
US technology/AI market LONG
Data center infrastructure revenue is real.
Unlike the dot-com bubble that was based on non-dollar metrics, the current AI boom is showing actual revenue and profit growth in data centers, infrastructure, networking and equipment, with real dollars flowing rather than speculative utilization.
AI Data Center Infrastructure LONG
Nvidia is winning open-source enterprise compute.
With the Hugging Face transaction, Nvidia is becoming the largest open-source AI provider and the #1 competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic for enterprise compute. Jensen can offer sovereign racks and cut token prices 80-90% because he makes money on hardware, enabling the US to blow past China by end-2027.
NVDA LONG
Sell San Francisco residential real estate now.
David Sacks says San Francisco real estate is in a bonkers, euphoric repricing driven by the upcoming Anthropic IPO and OpenAI to follow. He is selling all of his SF properties within the next six months because he feels the IPO clock is ticking and it is the perfect time to clear out.
San Francisco residential real estate AVOID
Venezuelan heavy crude benefits Gulf refiners.
Sacks argues the Venezuela deal is win-win because it secures heavy crude that is complementary to the light sweet crude from US fracking. US Gulf refineries were built for heavy crude and can turn it into diesel and other distillates, so they are structurally well positioned.
XLE LONG
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate may reprice.
Jason argues San Francisco's ultra-luxury housing market could easily move from around $3,000/ft to $5,000/ft, repricing toward London/Paris/Hong Kong levels because the Anthropic IPO alone is four times all prior SF IPO wealth, inventory is tiny, and local restrictions prevent enough building.
San Francisco ultra-luxury real estate LONG
Dynamic AI cyber defense becomes stronger.
Friedberg argues the world's software and cyber defense infrastructure is shifting from static code to dynamically generated, moving-target defenses. As a result, AI-powered cyber defense will become stronger than offensive AI agents, making cybersecurity a structural winner.
Cybersecurity / AI cyber defense LONG
HIGH
23:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters
▾
HIGH
Rate hike is not structural equity bear.
Even if the Fed raises rates, history shows US equities typically fall about 10% before the first hike and 15% around it, but then rally on average 45% afterward. Because a rate hike signals the economy is not weak, investors should not fear rate hikes and should maintain a long equity bias.
SPY LONG
Hold Samsung and SK hynix long-term.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are being sold by panicked retail investors and passive foreign flows, but long-term foreign buyers are accumulating the same names. Fundamentals and shareholder-return improvements remain acceptable for long-term accumulation. Short-term traders should reduce because the range has narrowed, but long-term holders should hold or add rather than dump.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold Korean equities, long-term accumulation continues.
Korean equities are under short-term supply pressure from foreign program selling and weak retail sentiment, but long-term foreign investors are quietly accumulating under the surface. Lee argues the correct stance is to hold positions rather than panic-sell, because the visible selling is not matched by a fundamental breakdown and long-term accumulation is expanding.
EWY LONG
Rapid won rise hurts small-cap exporters.
The won's rapid appreciation from the 1,500 area to 1,350 is too fast. Large-cap exporters with global production are less exposed, but KOSDAQ small/mid parts and materials companies are vulnerable because a rapid currency decline can hit their operating profits, so investors should exercise caution with that segment.
KOSDAQ small/mid parts/materials exporters AVOID
Favor tech, watch banks for rates.
Traditional rate-based sector formulas have broken recently, so rather than chasing rate beneficiaries mechanically, Lee suggests two-way positioning: if rate-hike fears ease, semiconductors and technology stocks move most; if rate-hike concerns return, banks and insurance can gradually reflect higher rates.
Korean semiconductor/tech stocks LONG
KBE WATCH
HIGH
23:12
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
UGA
DIESEL 1ST
UNG
GLD
▾
HIGH
Record crude, gasoline, diesel prices temporary.
McGlone argues the record-high prices in crude oil, gasoline, and diesel are temporary. Gasoline typically falls in the second half of the year as fuel blends switch, the US surplus of crude oil and fuels is reaching a record, the Western Hemisphere is becoming the price maker, and these petroleum markets are highly correlated and rarely stay up long. He sees the bigger risk as prices falling.
WTI SHORT
UGA SHORT
DIESEL SHORT
Natural gas collapse signals lower prices.
McGlone views natural gas as a key indicator for US heat and electricity costs, and notes the January natural gas futures price just fell to its lowest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and is down nearly 20% on the year. He says this points to lower energy prices and that natural gas led the way lower in 2023 and 2024.
UNG SHORT
Gold too expensive; sell precious metals.
McGlone turns bearish on precious metals. He says gold is facing very high interest rates, is at its highest level versus the T-bond index in 40 years, and has become too expensive. He has selling inclinations in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and thinks gold may be stuck in a range for years if Treasury bonds are the guide.
GLD SHORT
SILVER SHORT
PPLT SHORT
PALL SHORT
Bitcoin is stock puppet; expect lower.
McGlone calls bitcoin a 'stock puppet' that has shifted from a stud to a dud. He says bitcoin has only matched the S&P 500 on a performance basis since 2021, has unlimited supply, and that its glory days are over. He fully expects bitcoin to go lower, especially if the stock market does.
BTC SHORT
HIGH
23:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
8h
STOCKS
Speculative single-digit stocks
XBI
SPY
actively managed mutual funds
▾
HIGH
Young investors should favor stocks over bonds.
Younger investors should be almost entirely in stocks and avoid bonds until at least their mid-50s, because over the last 40 years stocks have been the right way to grow wealth and young people have decades to ride through down markets.
STOCKS LONG
Young investors can take more risk.
Investors in their 20s can afford to take much more risk, including speculative single-digit stocks and tiny biotech companies, because if they lose money they have decades in the workforce to earn it back; older investors need more caution.
Speculative single-digit stocks LONG
XBI LONG
Use low-cost S&P 500 index funds.
A low-cost S&P 500 index fund is the best passive core holding for most investors, especially inside restricted 401k plans, because it has ultra-low fees and lets participants capture broad market performance without picking individual stocks.
SPY LONG
Avoid actively managed mutual funds.
Actively managed mutual funds are a bad deal for most investors because managers are paid based on assets under management rather than performance, most underperform their benchmarks, and high fees eat any outperformance.
actively managed mutual funds AVOID
Avoid sector ETFs for stock pickers.
Individual investors should avoid sector-based mutual funds and ETFs because a diversified fund should already provide adequate exposure, and if an investor is going to take the time to play sectors, they are better off picking individual stocks.
Sector ETFs AVOID
Most ETFs are for trading, not investing.
Most ETFs should be treated as trading vehicles rather than long-term investments because many rebalance daily, which can erode long-term performance and cause losses even when the investor is right; the main exceptions are GLD and S&P 500 ETFs.
ETFs AVOID
GLD is simple gold exposure.
GLD is an ETF he likes as a simple way to play gold, making it one of the few ETF exceptions he endorses for investors.
GLD LONG
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Investors should trim dominant winners such as Eli Lilly and Apple so a portfolio does not become overly concentrated in one company; even the best companies were hit in the 2022 pullback, so reducing position size manages risk.
LLY LONG
AAPL AVOID
Prefer Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers.
Cramer prefers Eli Lilly over Bristol-Myers because Lilly's growth rate makes him less worried about its price/earnings ratio, implying the growth justifies the valuation.
BMY AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Korean secondary battery sector
ESS 1ST
SOLAR 1ST
EWY
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Secondary batteries/ESS rise on data-center power needs.
Secondary batteries are emerging as a standout sector while semiconductors pause. Data center construction is being delayed because power infrastructure takes far longer than the data center itself, and data centers require uninterruptible power. Renewable energy needs energy storage systems to be viable, and solar is the fastest near-term solution, especially as the US avoids Chinese products and related demand surges. The theme is backed by actual earnings improvement and valuation expansion, not just narrative.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
ESS LONG
SOLAR LONG
Use September weakness as October buying opportunity.
September Korean market weakness is driven by known supply and event risks such as Anthropic's IPO, a stronger won, semiconductor earnings cuts, Fed rate uncertainty, Middle East tensions, and pre-Chuseok caution. Lee views these as volatility factors rather than a trend change. After the FOMC decision and Chuseok, and with political pressure not to damage markets into the U.S. midterms, September's excessive caution can become October's upward catalyst. He suggests using September corrections as opportunities rather than reducing positions into October.
EWY LONG
Semiconductor target cuts are FX, not demand.
Citi and domestic brokerages are cutting price targets for Korean memory semiconductor names such as SK hynix because the stronger won trims reported earnings. Lee argues this is a currency translation issue, not a deterioration in the underlying semiconductor business. The market is already absorbing the bad news in advance, so investors should not interpret the target cuts as a sign that semiconductor demand or AI-related buying is collapsing.
000660.KS WATCH
KWEB WATCH
HIGH
22:42
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
9h
SPY
US10Y 1ST
GLD
▾
HIGH
S&P stalls near 782 resistance
The S&P 500/SPY has been remarkably resilient but is stalled just below its measured SPY target of 782 after making an all-time high at 779; he is cautiously optimistic but worried if the market starts breaking under 762 on multiple closes.
SPY WATCH
Ten-year Treasury yields heading higher
The 10-year Treasury yield is ultimately heading higher from a secular technical perspective; he told clients in late March they would not see 4% again this cycle, sees a minimum upside target of 5.6%, and gives an ultimate target of 6.07.
US10Y LONG
Gold consolidating above a solid low
Gold is likely to consolidate for a while after selling off 30% from its peak and retracing about half of that decline; the low made two months ago is probably a solid low, but he does not expect an immediate scream to new all-time highs.
GLD WATCH
HIGH
22:41
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
9h
DTCR
▾
MED
Pause data centers to answer transparency questions
Daniel Castro argues data centers are the physical infrastructure powering America's AI economy and should not face statewide moratoriums or bans. He contends local concerns around electricity, noise, and water can be managed like other large infrastructure projects, while large hyperscalers are already adding clean energy and water-positive projects and data centers generate large local tax revenue, so building them responsibly is an economic upside.
DTCR WATCH
MED
22:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO 1ST
UNG 1ST
LNG 1ST
DBA 1ST
Ammonia 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hormuz disruption keeps oil supply tight.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main export gate for Gulf oil. The 2026 conflict collapsed tanker traffic from about 138 ships per day to 20 without a physical blockade, driven by war-risk insurance repricing. Alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines can only bypass a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally cross Hormuz, and the US energy agency does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels before early 2027. Brent returned above $92 in this setup.
BNO LONG
Hormuz removal causes global LNG shortages.
About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.
UNG LONG
LNG LONG
Urea prices surge after Hormuz disruption.
The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.
DBA LONG
Ammonia LONG
MOO LONG
HIGH
22:26
Sep 04
Sep 04
ZEC
XMR
MEMECOINS FLIP
HOOD
INTC
▾
HIGH
Zcash has highest upside privacy bet
Zcash is his top single long among monetary assets for far higher upside; it is ripping toward $1,000, benefits from monetary debasement, and shielded ZEC usage is growing as privacy demand rises.
ZEC LONG
Monero benefits from privacy usage
Monero is the only coin actually used for privacy, and among monetary assets he cares about Bitcoin, Zcash and Monero; it should do well as privacy usage grows.
XMR LONG
Memecoins benefit from social trading wave
Social trading is drawing new users into memecoins, and crypto is uniquely able to monetize attention quickly, as shown by an AMC-linked coin going from about $100k to $100m market cap in five hours; he sees a golden age of memecoin trading despite lottery-risk caution.
MEMECOINS LONG
Buy Robinhood as crypto finance winner
Robinhood is the only traditional financial institution taking crypto seriously; its chain, tokenization, RWA and stablecoin businesses can create a huge sustainable revenue stream, and HOOD is a long multibagger he is still holding after the move from $92 to $123.
HOOD LONG
Intel targets 140 by year-end
OpenAI's GPT-6 release is crushing benchmarks and reigniting chip demand; Intel is super bullish and could return to $140 by year-end as the summer liquidity lull ends.
INTC LONG
Rebought Nvidia as core AI leader
He bought back Nvidia because he is bullish on core AI assets; in the next phase of the AI trade he wants leaders, and Nvidia is one of the core positions that can continue to run.
NVDA LONG
Buy perp leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter
Real-revenue crypto applications are winning; Lighter is almost $5, was undervalued and integrated by Robinhood, and in the perps-eating-the-world thesis the trade is to buy the leaders Hyperliquid and Lighter rather than chasing laggards.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Biotech remains megatrend position
He is still holding biotech exposure as a megatrend, specifically ARKG and XBI, and believes the portfolio including biotech, Bitcoin, Zcash, Intel and Nvidia can rise 50-100% over the next six months.
ARKG LONG
XBI LONG
Bitcoin breaks 80k to year-end highs
FOMO's user growth has turned gradual rather than spiky, which suggests the space is building and the rally has room; Bitcoin near $80,000 is still early because most retail attention does not shift until Bitcoin breaks all-time highs, which could take six months to a year.
BTC LONG
HIGH
22:09
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
9h
2-Year Treasury Yield
WTI
long-term U.S. Treasuries
SPY
▾
HIGH
Rate hikes delayed until after midterms.
The August jobs report was non-inflationary and gives the Fed room to hike, but the September FOMC is politically constrained by the midterm elections and Trump's tariff threats. Siegel expects rate increases to be delayed until after the election, potentially in December, if inflation data forces action.
2-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
Iran escalation could send oil higher.
Iran is a wild card that could escalate missile attacks before the election, sending oil prices higher and potentially pushing up bond yields, which could force the Fed's hand on inflation.
WTI WATCH
Fed hike could lower long rates.
If the Fed makes a strong move, it could actually lower long-term interest rates by signaling that the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility is intact and it will act, which would support long-term Treasury prices.
long-term U.S. Treasuries LONG
Market may rally after Fed hike.
The stock market would initially have a negative reaction to a September Fed rate hike, but then turn positive because investors would be reassured that the Fed is serious about getting inflation under control.
SPY LONG
HIGH
21:57
Sep 04
Sep 04
MAGS 1ST
ZS
ADBE 1ST
ORCL 1ST
AMZN
▾
HIGH
AI trade funding fragility is concerning
She warns the AI trade is becoming more fragile as funding shifts from cash flow to debt and equity issuance; Magnificent 7 revenue is tied to two private companies with uncertain economics, so disclosures could disappoint.
MAGS AVOID
Zscaler benefits from AI security tailwind
AI is Zscaler's largest opportunity because enterprises fear AI model and agent vulnerabilities; cybersecurity spend is growing and Zscaler's zero trust platform differentiates by hiding assets and securing AI agents, supporting bullish fiscal 2027 growth.
ZS LONG
Adobe CEO choice disappoints Street
Adobe's internal CEO pick disappointed Wall Street; Dave Wadwani was seen as the stronger dynamic leader, and the board needs an overhaul.
ADBE AVOID
Oracle is top-five AI infrastructure play
Oracle is liked by Jefferies despite concerns about $130B debt, OpenAI concentration, and margin transition because it is among the top five AI infrastructure builders and Larry Ellison has navigated tech cycles well.
ORCL LONG
Prefer Amazon Google Microsoft over Oracle
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are the better-executing top three AI infrastructure stories; Oracle is top five but not top three.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
Airline rally unlikely to persist
Airlines face a jet fuel price overhang near highs and will struggle to recoup fuel costs in fall and winter; today's bounce is unlikely to persist.
S&P 500 Passenger Airline Sub-Index AVOID
Prefer Delta and United airlines
Within airlines, Delta has best-in-class premium pricing power and can recover up to half of rising jet fuel costs; United can do almost as well, while American ranks third and low-cost carriers have it harder.
DAL LONG
UAL LONG
Five percent Treasury entry is attractive
The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is an attractive entry point that has drawn demand from insurance companies, endowments and foundations wanting to lock in long-term yields.
TLT LONG
HIGH
21:57
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
10h
Fed Funds Rate
US Long Bond (30-Year Treasury Yield)
▾
HIGH
Fed should hold rates, not hike/cut.
The August jobs report overstates labor market strength; underlying monthly job growth is only about 50k and wage growth is slowing. With core CPI expected to come in soft around 0.1-0.2% month-over-month and 2.3-2.4% year-over-year, and inflation expectations anchored, Zandi argues the Fed should not raise or cut rates. He says the Fed should hold the line, wait for the CPI report, and see how the data plays out.
Fed Funds Rate WATCH
Rate cuts would spike long-term yields.
Zandi says he is perplexed by calls for rate cuts because cutting rates would be counterproductive: inflation expectations would rise and long-term interest rates would rise, with the long bond potentially moving well above 5% and 30-year fixed rates also moving higher.
US Long Bond (30-Year Treasury Yield) WATCH
HIGH
21:18
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
10h
UGA 1ST
Diesel-crude spread
CRAK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diesel prices biased higher on tight supply
Record U.S. diesel prices are supported by tight supply: Russia is extending its diesel export ban, product tanker transits through Hormuz haven't picked up significantly, and U.S. distillate production is about 127,000 barrels per day below 2025 due to lighter/sweeter crudes. Diesel demand is also inelastic into harvest season because farmers must run equipment, so demand destruction is limited and prices could stay higher.
UGA LONG
Diesel-crude spread widening on supply constraints
The spread between crude and diesel is widening because Russia is extending its diesel export ban and product tanker transits through Hormuz have not picked up significantly, making diesel relatively stronger versus crude.
Diesel-crude spread LONG
Refiners running hard on attractive economics
Refiners around the world are running flat out because refining economics are very attractive, so any refiner with available capacity is running, which supports the refining sector.
CRAK LONG
HIGH
21:11
Sep 04
Sep 04
UAL
TPR
DAL
RYAAY
SAVE
▾
HIGH
Loyalty programs drive airline profits.
Airlines are effectively banks because their loyalty programs and co-branded credit card economics now drive the bulk of airline profitability. Delta and United are doing incredibly well because of their loyalty portfolios, and airlines that lean into the rewards ecosystem are outperforming.
UAL LONG
DAL LONG
Tapestry sees accelerating new customer growth.
Within a broadly healthy American retail environment, Tapestry is continuing to see more new customer growth, helped by inventory management and marketing/social media-driven customer acquisition.
TPR LONG
Budget models diverge; Ryanair wins, Spirit fails.
The pure economy budget model does not work in the U.S., as shown by Spirit; Ryanair makes budget flying work in Europe only because it operates to third-tier airports that U.S. carriers lack, so the regional models diverge.
RYAAY LONG
SAVE AVOID
Amex premium ecosystem remains strong.
American Express is benefiting from premium card fee increases; even when some customers resist $900 annual fees, they switch to other Amex products like the Gold card and remain in the Amex family. The rewards ecosystem and interchange fees remain very lucrative for Amex.
AXP LONG
Ralph Lauren wins experience and tennis fashion.
Ralph Lauren is one of the specialty retailers doing the best job delivering an experiential destination to customers, with visible lines and traffic; it also benefits from tennis fashion and style trends at the U.S. Open, where its athlete/style sponsorship creates brand wins.
RL LONG
Walmart is a tech-driven retail winner.
Walmart has become a modern technology company, not just a traditional retailer; it captures all income levels, has global scale, and its biggest growth is now coming from higher-income consumers, making its premium multiple and continued relevance understandable.
WMT LONG
HIGH
21:03
Sep 04
Sep 04
TSN 1ST
SFD 1ST
JBS 1ST
LULU
ADBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Beef processors face Trump policy risk.
President Trump's executive order allowing ranchers to process their own beef targets major beef processors and aims to lower beef prices. Jeff Mason says Trump acknowledged he is taking on those companies and they are not going to like it, creating policy/regulatory risk for meat processors such as Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and JBS.
TSN AVOID
SFD AVOID
JBS AVOID
Lululemon turnaround delayed; competitive losses mounting.
Lululemon has multiple problems: execution missteps, weak product innovation, a 20% drop in leggings, changing athleisure styles, stiff competition from Alo, Vuori, Nike and Adidas, and soft China sales. The new CEO's turnaround is likely 9-12 months away, leaving the stock unattractive in the near term.
LULU AVOID
Adobe CEO transition adds uncertainty.
Adobe faces CEO transition uncertainty after the creative-division head was passed over and is leaving the company, while the stock was already under pressure from AI disruption fears and is down about 60% since the pandemic. The market is questioning the new leadership structure, keeping the stock vulnerable.
ADBE AVOID
Regulatory threat to Fair Isaac monopoly.
Fair Isaac Corp is under regulatory pressure after FHFA Director Bill Pulte renewed criticism over credit bureau overcharging and floated dismantling the FICO score monopoly, including possibly requiring only one credit agency. That threatens Fair Isaac's FICO licensing model.
FICO AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
KOSDAQ Index
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
MU
▾
HIGH
Buy KOSDAQ below 10-year moving average.
Historically, whenever KOSDAQ has broken its 10-year moving average it has always recovered. The strategy is to buy below the 10-year moving average and hold until it recovers; the firm used this to buy on the 29th and sees it as a high-conviction KOSDAQ tactical rule.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
KOSPI dips likely pre-Chuseok buying opportunity.
September should see rate-hike fears fade because Micron's late-September earnings are expected to be okay, the BOJ and FOMC are likely to hold rates, and US unemployment is expected to tick higher. That sets up buying before the Chuseok holiday and a stronger market from October, with KOSPI seen in a limited range and likely to test the 5-month moving average around 7,380-7,500.
EWY LONG
Samsung rallies until operating margin peaks.
Samsung Electronics' operating margin is still rising, with consensus 3Q operating margin around 55%; historically the stock peaks when operating margin peaks, so the uptrend is not over. Strong buybacks and potential shareholder-return/special-dividend news add support, and positive foundry news could drive a retest of the previous high by January.
005930.KS LONG
Hynix right shoulder targets 230-250.
SK hynix's 2Q miss was attributed to high-priced HBM being pushed to the next quarter. If that high-priced volume is recognized in 3Q, the stock should rally into the September-October earnings window and build the right shoulder, likely toward the 230,000-250,000 won area as foreign buying returns on Halloween-related effects; year-end YMTC listing is a later overhang.
000660.KS LONG
Micron earnings support post-Chuseok rebound.
Micron Technology reports fiscal results on September 30, and the speaker expects the report to be not bad; valuation is low, and this should support a rebound after the Chuseok holiday.
MU LONG
SanDisk rallies are selling opportunities.
SanDisk has rallied massively from its April 2025 low and is now correcting. The NAND market is becoming a red ocean, and the speaker says any rebound should be sold rather than chased.
SNDK AVOID
Bitcoin midterm cycle bottom likely forming.
Bitcoin shows a midterm-election cycle pattern: the prior major bottom formed in Q4 2022 around the US midterms, and this time large money may start buying from September after last year's decline. The steep recent daily advance suggests a bottom may be forming.
BTC LONG
S&P 500 monthly trend remains bullish.
The S&P 500 monthly chart shows all major moving averages in bullish alignment, and the Chesley AI model score was upgraded to the 90-100 range, supporting continued strength.
SPY LONG
Liquidity rotates into Korean small-cap stocks.
Liquidity that had concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is rotating into smaller individual stocks, creating a stock-picker's market similar to the 2013-2015 period. With large-cap leadership boxed, the speaker expects an intense individual-stock market to unfold.
Korean small-cap stocks LONG
Watch US 10-year yield breaking higher.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has broken above the 4.6% descending resistance line, an important risk level; with the US federal fiscal year ending in September, the speaker says it is necessary to watch how far yields rise this month, as a continued climb could pressure equities and create downside tail risk.
US10Y WATCH
Oil fades at descending trendline resistance.
Oil repeatedly rallies into the descending high trendline and then declines. The speaker views the trendline as key and expects further pullbacks when oil reaches that resistance.
WTI SHORT
HIGH
20:35
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
11h
DIESEL
Heating fuel
▾
HIGH
Refinery shortages propel diesel prices higher
Diesel prices are being driven higher by a shortage of global refinery spare capacity: Middle East refineries have been targeted in the war with Iran, product is not getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine is targeting Russian refineries, and US refineries are running at 98% utilization.
DIESEL LONG
Heating fuel bills will be shockingly high
Diesel is closely related to heating fuel, and as colder November weather arrives around midterm elections, households will get their first heating bills of the season and they will be shockingly high.
Heating fuel LONG
HIGH
20:23
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI
▾
MED
US controls Hormuz; oil flow risk remains
Trump describes the Iran conflict as a limited, intermittent military conflict rather than a war, but says the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz 'very strongly' and is 'taking out a lot of oil' and boats, keeping oil-supply and chokepoint risk a live market factor.
WTI WATCH
MED
20:14
Sep 04
Sep 04
US bond market
EWC
▾
HIGH
Rates should fall to 0.5-1%
Trump argues the Federal Reserve should cut rates aggressively, saying the current level near 4% is too high and rates should be around 0.5% to 1% as they were 25 to 30 years ago. He claims a rate hike would not reassure the bond market, implying lower rates would support bonds.
US bond market LONG
Canada vulnerable if US trade cut
Trump warns that if the US stopped trading with Canada, Canada would be in severe trouble because it depends on the US for roughly 95% of its business. He says a trade cutoff would wipe out that business and questions whether Canada could exist, making Canadian assets a trade-policy risk to monitor.
EWC WATCH
HIGH
20:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
AI Data Center Infrastructure
Auto supply chain
Live sports
Sports betting
▾
MED
AI data centers are U.S. growth driver.
The U.S. growth story is almost entirely driven by AI data center buildout over the past 18 months; outside of data centers the manufacturing and construction boom is not real. This makes AI data center infrastructure the core economic driver to watch.
AI Data Center Infrastructure WATCH
Canada tariffs hurt auto supply chain.
New U.S. tariffs on Canada will hit the auto supply chain, and the automotive sector already showed a sizable drop in employment last month, creating a negative tariff-driven setup for the auto supply chain.
Auto supply chain AVOID
Live sports and sports betting remain strong.
Live sports is one of the biggest and most durable entertainment areas, is insulated from AI disruption for some time, and is also one of the biggest betting markets; this supports continued investment demand in live sports and sports betting.
Live sports LONG
Sports betting LONG
MED
19:49
Sep 04
Sep 04
Morgan Stanley
12h
Interest Rate Volatility
WTI 1ST
Foreign exchange volatility
▾
HIGH
Rate and FX volatility can rise.
Expected volatility across many markets, particularly interest rate and foreign exchange, remains unusually low. Given September catalysts such as the Fed, BOJ and ECB meetings, unusually heavy capital market activity, and energy uncertainty, Morgan Stanley expects those volatility levels to rise.
Interest Rate Volatility LONG
Foreign exchange volatility LONG
Oil seen reaching $100 by Q4.
Morgan Stanley's commodity team sees global energy flows as severely restricted and recently raised its oil price forecast to about $100 per barrel in Q4, supported by inventory drawdowns, persistent conflict-duration uncertainty, and extreme European diesel prices up 140% since January.
WTI LONG
HIGH
19:49
Sep 04
Sep 04
NKE
XRT 1ST
RL
▾
MED
Nike, Ralph Lauren win from tennis fashion
The U.S. Open has become a fashion-and-function showcase that creates style trends, and the brands visible on players benefit from that exposure. Ralph Lauren and Nike are specifically called out as winners capturing the tennis-driven sportswear moment.
NKE LONG
RL LONG
Stores remain relevant through experiential retail
Physical stores are not dead; they are becoming experiential venues through styling sessions, designer introductions, and event tie-ins like the U.S. Open. Each reason to visit creates incremental purchases, supporting brick-and-mortar retail.
XRT LONG
MED
19:39
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
12h
DIESEL 1ST
WTI 1ST
DBC 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil price shocks keep commodity prices elevated
Dana Peterson argues that record diesel prices and oil price shocks will feed through the supply chain, keeping commodity prices and the goods that depend on them elevated through the end of this year and into next year.
DIESEL LONG
WTI LONG
DBC LONG
Fed rate hike risk could sink stocks
Jessica Edinger says next week's CPI is in focus because a hot inflation report could push the Fed to raise interest rates later this month, making borrowing more expensive, hurting corporate profits, and sending stocks lower.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
19:34
Sep 04
Sep 04
American Retail
TPR 1ST
Brick-and-mortar retail
ROST
TJX
▾
HIGH
American retail doing nicely on inventory management
American retail is doing nicely, with companies managing inventory and using marketing and social marketing to drive new customer growth.
American Retail LONG
Tapestry, Ralph Lauren gaining new customers
Tapestry and Ralph Lauren are continuing to see more new customer growth, supported by marketing and social marketing.
TPR LONG
Physical stores more relevant than ever
Physical stores are not dying and are more relevant than ever, with companies reinvesting in stores and social interaction post-Covid driving demand for in-store experiences.
Brick-and-mortar retail LONG
Off-price store openings growing fastest
The fastest-growing store openings are coming from off-price retailers Ross Stores, TJX, and Burlington, and Walmart is remodeling nearly 600 stores a year, showing physical value/off-price retail expansion for lower-income consumers.
ROST LONG
TJX LONG
BURL LONG
WMT LONG
Zara strong; H&M still recovering
Zara is executing well in fast fashion while H&M is trying to get its groove back, with private competitors like Edikted also opening stores and keeping competition intense.
HM-B.ST WATCH
Tapestry, Ralph Lauren gaining new customers
Ralph Lauren, Zara, and Sephora are creating destination experiences through Ralph's Coffee lines, constant newness, and crowds, blending products and experience to drive store traffic.
RL LONG
Inditex (Zara) LONG
Ralph Lauren and Nike win US Open
The US Open has become fashion and function, with athlete style trends creating aspirational visibility, and Ralph Lauren and Nike are winners from that trend.
NKE LONG
HIGH
19:06
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
12h
ASAN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Asana becomes human-agent coordination operating system.
Asana is shifting from human coordination to becoming the operating system for human-agent teams because AI agents multiply coordination challenges such as handoffs, disconnected systems, and accountability. Its differentiation is that it does not compete with foundational models but makes them useful at work, with 30 pre-built teammates and a work graph that acts as a living ledger to keep humans in control while work moves forward.
ASAN LONG
HIGH
19:01
Sep 04
Sep 04
UAL 1ST
AXP 1ST
JPM 1ST
SAVE
RYAAY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Delta and United win via loyalty.
Airlines are effectively banks because their loyalty programs drive profits; Delta and United are performing exceptionally well due to their brand portfolios and loyalty businesses, even as mileage award prices inflate.
UAL LONG
Premium card fees boost Amex, Chase.
Credit card rewards and premium annual-fee products remain lucrative for issuers; Amex and Chase have raised fees, and even if some customers drop premium cards they stay within the same issuer family, such as Amex Gold, supporting issuer results.
AXP LONG
JPM LONG
Budget model fails US, works Europe.
The purely economy budget airline model does not work in the US because fuel and airport costs are high, as shown by Spirit; in Europe the budget model works because Ryanair can use cheaper third-rate airports.
SAVE AVOID
RYAAY LONG
Delta and United win via loyalty.
US airlines are increasingly adding premium, business, and first-class seats while tightening economy, and this premium shift is how carriers win; Delta is expanding premium seats, JetBlue is adding first class, and Frontier announced first class.
DAL LONG
JBLU LONG
ULCC LONG
HIGH
18:45
Sep 04
Sep 04
Milk Road Macro
13h
BTC
ETH
HOOD 1ST
AERODROME 1ST
UNI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Macro liquidity and Robinhood fuel crypto breakout
Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out because Treasury buybacks of long-dated bonds are adding liquidity and signaling the Treasury is willing to support markets, while Fed hikes look less likely, the Clarity Act could pass, and Robinhood Chain activity is bringing capital and excitement back into crypto.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
Robinhood Chain proves onchain capital market demand
Robinhood Chain's explosion in tokenized stocks, launchpads, and memecoin activity is more than near-term fees; it is proof of concept that onchain capital markets work, compelling Coinbase, OKX, and other competitors to accelerate tokenization.
HOOD LONG
Slow DeFi offers beyond memecoin casino upside
Slow or regular DeFi is more attractive than fast DeFi because it is a call option on broader infrastructure beyond the memecoin casino, with deeper liquidity, bigger markets, more transparency, more trust, and stronger network effects; Uniswap and Aerodrome are key players seeing volume flow through them.
AERODROME LONG
Slow DeFi offers beyond memecoin casino upside
Uniswap fixed its tokenomics by skimming some liquidity pool fees and using them to buy back and burn UNI tokens, so the token now captures protocol value; record volume from Robinhood Chain tokenized stock pools and Uniswap v4 is creating buyback pressure, and there is little technical resistance until around $7.
UNI LONG
Altcoins have bottomed and are recovering
Dispersion is increasing even while Bitcoin chops: broad altcoin rallies, lending protocols, and DeFi protocols are seeing strong adoption and demand, suggesting many altcoins have already bottomed and it is time to start deploying capital off the sidelines.
ALTCOINS LONG
Maple Finance is severely undervalued by the market, and it is among the DeFi protocols benefiting from strengthening fundamentals and returning capital.
MPL LONG
Perp DEX platforms have momentum and catalysts
Perp DEX platforms like Hyperliquid and Lighter have positive momentum and catalysts: Lighter has been on an absolute tear and is probably going to keep going, and there is reason to expect positive news for perp platforms such as Hyperliquid and Lighter.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
HIGH
18:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
13h
Fervo Energy
Enhanced geothermal energy
▾
HIGH
Fervo Energy stock underappreciated, real projects
Fervo Energy is underappreciated after its post-IPO decline because it has real operating projects, a newly announced 400 MW Google PPA, advanced offtake negotiations with hyperscalers and utilities, diversified customers, and long-term contracted revenues with no fuel-price volatility. Its proprietary drilling and power-plant technology create a competitive moat, and standardization of 50 MW blocks and well designs is expected to cut capital costs below $3,000 per kilowatt, eventually making Fervo's geothermal power cost-competitive without production tax credits after the 2030s. Latimer argues Wall Street is missing how real Fervo's growth and binding offtake are.
Fervo Energy LONG
Enhanced geothermal is booming and cost-competitive
Enhanced geothermal is in a once-in-a-generation boom because it provides 24/7 carbon-free, fuel-independent electricity that hyperscalers, utilities and industrial customers increasingly need. Fervo's adaptation of horizontal drilling and its standardized, repeatable development model are putting geothermal on a learning curve similar to shale, solar and batteries, which Latimer argues can make geothermal one of the cheapest electricity sources on the planet and now attracts oil and gas companies into the sector.
Enhanced geothermal energy LONG
HIGH
18:13
Sep 04
Sep 04
Perpetual futures
On-chain perpetual futures
BTC
GLD
Silver perpetual futures
▾
HIGH
Perps should be futures, broadly accessible.
Perpetual futures should be classified as futures rather than swaps because they are an extraordinarily useful tool, often a better derivative than dated futures or options, and should be available to the broadest number of users. They offer deeper liquidity, simpler pricing, and can track the underlying asset closely.
Perpetual futures LONG
Smart-contract perps deserve futures classification.
Smart-contract-based perpetuals are venue-focused rather than bilateral like swaps, and the technology makes them more accessible and capable of democratizing financial products without requiring sophisticated intermediaries. That supports treating them as futures, with regulation focused on how the product actually works.
On-chain perpetual futures LONG
CFTC approved Bitcoin perpetual futures.
The CFTC has already authorized true Bitcoin perpetual futures for Coinbase and Kalshi for the first time, classifying them as futures for centralized exchanges. This is a concrete regulatory path for US retail access to crypto perps.
BTC WATCH
Commodity perps offer better continuous exposure.
Perpetuals have shown benefits outside crypto because they avoid fragmented liquidity across expiration dates and provide continuous exposure and 24/7 trading. This is useful in metals like silver and gold and in oil, but the CFTC is evaluating commodity perps asset by asset, making commodity perp approval a developing setup.
GLD WATCH
Silver perpetual futures WATCH
Oil perpetual futures WATCH
Hyperliquid is neutral infrastructure, not exchange.
Hyperliquid is not an exchange; it is neutral infrastructure that any exchange can use to offer a better product or service. Regulators are working through how exchange core principles can be satisfied using neutral infrastructure that no single third party controls, supporting an adoption path for Hyperliquid.
HYPE LONG
HIGH
17:58
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
14h
Squawk Pod: What Pablo Torre found out & banning artificial superintelligence - 09/04/26 |Audio Only
DIESEL
TLT
DAKT
▾
HIGH
Record diesel prices raise goods costs.
Becky Quick highlights that diesel has hit a record $5.85 per gallon according to AAA, with fuel prices a major market issue and higher diesel costs filtering into prices for truck-delivered consumer goods.
DIESEL WATCH
Global bond selloff continues amid credibility.
Mohamed El-Erian sees the selloff in global government bonds continuing and expects more upward pressure on rates. He argues the Treasury's recent market moves suggest it is trying to impose market outcomes, which is a step too far, and says pressure is rising on reliable buyers and holders of U.S. Treasuries, creating a credibility question for the Treasury.
TLT SHORT
SEC scrutiny overhang hits Daktronics.
Pablo Torre reports that Daktronics, a public scoreboard manufacturer, was implicated in the Clippers salary-cap scheme through an undisclosed secret deal with Kawhi Leonard and that the SEC is now requesting information from the company about undisclosed reporting. This creates a legal/regulatory overhang and potential disclosure risk for the stock.
DAKT AVOID
HIGH
17:40
Sep 04
Sep 04
LULU
SIRI 1ST
SPY 1ST
QQQ 1ST
IWM FLIP
▾
HIGH
Lululemon turnaround likely long and painful
Lululemon is suffering from execution failures, weak product assortment and innovation, weak brand heat and store traffic; its core leggings business is down 20%, and it will take the incoming CEO at least 6-9 months to begin turning product around, with no improvement for at least 12 months.
LULU AVOID
SiriusXM advertising partnerships drive 50% upside
Deutsche Bank upgraded SiriusXM to buy because new advertising partnerships with YouTube and Amazon offer massive upside; the YouTube deal alone could generate $2 billion in annual revenue by 2029 and support a potential 50% stock surge.
SIRI LONG
Reduce equity exposure but not bearish
BNP Paribas's positioning indicator is above neutral but not extended, which argues for being less bullish on US equities and taking some chips off the table without turning outright bearish.
SPY AVOID
Prefer Nasdaq over rate-sensitive small caps
The market is bifurcated: the Nasdaq is tied to secular AI earnings and is less sensitive to Fed hikes, while small/mid caps are more leveraged and rate-sensitive; in current macro uncertainty this favors Nasdaq over the Russell.
QQQ LONG
IWM AVOID
Short two-year Treasuries on Fed hikes
The labor market is solid and near full employment, so the Fed can focus on inflation, which is still too high and broadening; Julia Coronado expects a September rate hike and 2-3 hikes over the next six months, not a one-and-done move.
2-Year U.S. Treasury Note SHORT
Long volatility amid high macro uncertainty
Even with a subdued VIX, the market is entering a seasonally volatile period and shifting from idiosyncratic earnings catalysts to macro events such as CPI, FOMC and midterms; that can increase correlation and drive demand for protection, so volatility should pick up.
VIX LONG
Volkswagen restructuring progress supports shares
Volkswagen's supervisory board backing of a restructuring plan with 50,000 job cuts and a slimmer lineup is decisive progress on long-standing structural issues, supporting the rally and potentially more improvement ahead.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
HIGH
17:32
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
14h
MAGS 1ST
NVDA
MSFT 1ST
META FLIP
GEV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Mag 7 earnings justify renewed outperformance.
The Magnificent Seven's renewed outperformance is backed by fundamental earnings, not just momentum: AI capex is proving profitable, as shown by Amazon data-center payback under three years, Alphabet web services growing 80%, and Microsoft Azure growing 40%, while valuations are not hard to justify.
MAGS LONG
Nvidia clearing event signals continued AI.
Nvidia's earnings were the clearing event that restarted the Magnificent Seven rally; the initial muted reaction was just delayed, and it signals AI capex is continuing and profitable.
NVDA LONG
Microsoft quality and valuation support upside.
Microsoft is one of the highest-quality broad-based tech names in the world; its P/E has compressed after a flat year, its latest earnings showed strength, and its index weight makes it a significant contributor to the Mag 7 resurgence.
MSFT LONG
Meta AI model pivot supports stock.
Meta's post-quarter weakness was driven by fears it would go to the cloud business, but management instead said it is entering the AI model business; Zuckerberg has shown he can navigate AI challenges, making Meta a selective AI winner with revenue and ROI.
META LONG
GE Vernova leads AI power comeback.
GE Vernova is the AI power name she owns as the poster child of the divergence between data-center backlash and AI power demand; it is making a comeback and is a direct way to play AI electricity needs.
GEV LONG
HIGH
17:27
Sep 04
Sep 04
LCTD 1ST
UPS 1ST
SOYB 1ST
CORN 1ST
AMZN 1ST
▾
HIGH
Beef prices stay elevated on tight supply
US cattle herd is at a 75-year low after drought, liquidation, aging ranchers and low profitability; rebuilding is a four-year biological cycle, while protein demand from paleo/keto/carnivore trends remains strong, so beef prices should stay under upward pressure.
LCTD LONG
Direct logistics gains share from supermarkets
Door-to-door logistics through Amazon Prime, UPS and FedEx plus software-driven electronic aggregation is becoming cheap enough to bypass supermarkets and ship farm products directly to urban centers, while urban bricks-and-mortar retail costs have escalated, so direct logistics is taking share from supermarkets.
UPS LONG
AMZN LONG
FDX LONG
Corn and soybeans face excess supply
US corn and soybean production is far beyond food needs; half of soybeans are exported, half of corn goes to ethanol, and China is targeting agricultural self-sufficiency by 2030, so these markets are vulnerable and subsidies are merely delaying a collapse.
SOYB SHORT
CORN SHORT
HIGH
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