Liz Pancotti

The jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs. Simultaneously, gas is approaching $4/gallon, and new 15% tariffs (Section 122) will hit consumer goods in 6-9 months. The consumer is facing a "double whammy": loss of income (weak labor market) and rising costs (energy inflation + tariffs). Discretionary spending power is being evaporated. Short Consumer Discretionary and Retail. The "stagflation" narrative (high prices, low growth) kills retail margins and volume. The Fed cuts rates aggressively to save the labor market, stimulating a consumption rally.

The jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs. Simultaneously, gas is approaching $4/gallon, and new 15% tariffs (Section 122) will hit consumer goods in 6-9 months. The consumer is facing a "double whammy": loss of income (weak labor market) and rising costs (energy inflation + tariffs). Discretionary spending power is being evaporated. Short Consumer Discretionary and Retail. The "stagflation" narrative (high prices, low growth) kills retail margins and volume. The Fed cuts rates aggressively to save the labor market, stimulating a consumption rally.