Greg Boutle

The market is bifurcated: the Nasdaq is tied to secular AI earnings and is less sensitive to Fed hikes, while small/mid caps are more leveraged and rate-sensitive; in current macro uncertainty this favors Nasdaq over the Russell.

He sees small and mid-caps as a contrarian opportunity: investors worry about their negative correlation to rising rates, but if higher rates are driven by a stronger economy the Russell 2000 could have a fatter right tail.

He is bullish on semiconductors because positioning was cleaned out in late July, the group remains well off highs, and NVIDIA earnings provide a key catalyst, with the semis potentially having a catch-up trade.

The energy sector has some of the strongest earnings forecast upgrades this year, making it attractive alongside tech, even as the overall market transitions to fundamentals-driven gains.

Speaker argues for "relative resilience" of U.S. mega-cap stocks. He states they are less sensitive to the consumer impact of high energy prices and their secular growth drivers make them more resilient than European equities or other U.S. sectors. These companies have less direct exposure to the consumer energy price squeeze and possess durable earnings streams. They are also less sensitive to Fed rate hikes than the broader market, as the speaker believes the Fed will be on hold. LONG on a relative basis, as they are seen as a more resilient pocket of the equity market during a supply-side oil shock that pressures consumers and growth-sensitive cyclicals. A deep, protracted economic recession that crushes all corporate earnings, including tech, or a decisive hawkish Fed pivot that disproportionately impacts long-duration assets.

Speaker argues for "relative resilience" of U.S. mega-cap stocks. He states they are less sensitive to the consumer impact of high energy prices and their secular growth drivers make them more resilient than European equities or other U.S. sectors. These companies have less direct exposure to the consumer energy price squeeze and possess durable earnings streams. They are also less sensitive to Fed rate hikes than the broader market, as the speaker believes the Fed will be on hold. LONG on a relative basis, as they are seen as a more resilient pocket of the equity market during a supply-side oil shock that pressures consumers and growth-sensitive cyclicals. A deep, protracted economic recession that crushes all corporate earnings, including tech, or a decisive hawkish Fed pivot that disproportionately impacts long-duration assets.