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22:04
Sep 12
Sep 12
IEF 1ST
TLT
TIP 1ST
FXY FLIP
GLD
▾
HIGH
Sell long-term Treasuries as yields rise.
The Fed and Treasury will fail to bring down long-end yields because the inflation that is driving yields higher would only be worsened by attempts to suppress yields through buybacks or money printing. The 40-year bond bull market ended in 2020 and the bond bear market is already six years old; he thinks the bottom could drop out of the long bond market, yields could go through the roof, and he would not touch 10- or 30-year Treasuries.
IEF SHORT
TLT SHORT
Avoid TIPS; gold is better inflation hedge.
He does not trust TIPS because they are tied to CPI, which he believes understates inflation; gold has outperformed TIPS over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years, so he would rather own gold for inflation protection.
TIP AVOID
Yen will strengthen on higher Japan rates.
The yen intervention only worked temporarily. What will ultimately strengthen the yen is higher Japanese interest rates and a weaker dollar. If the yen stops falling, it likely rises, which could force a rapid unwinding of the yen carry trade.
FXY LONG
Buy gold pullback; much higher ahead.
He recommends buying more gold now, calling the pullback from $5,600 to around $4,300 a good dip to buy with $4,000 as support; he expects gold ultimately to go much higher and prefers it to TIPS.
GLD LONG
Dollar will collapse under its own weight.
The dollar is going to collapse under its own weight because of US fiscal and monetary problems. A weaker dollar is also part of what will strengthen the yen, and Fed money printing would destroy confidence in the dollar.
USD SHORT
Oil prices will stay high.
Oil prices are likely to remain high because the Iran war and energy supply disruptions are not ending soon; rising oil is also partly a reaction to US monetary and fiscal policy. If higher oil causes recession, deficits and more Fed printing would push oil and other prices even higher.
WTI LONG
US stocks are vulnerable to rolling over.
Higher long-term yields will eventually pressure stocks through higher discount rates, competition from bonds, tighter credit and refinancing costs, and stressed consumers. The stock market can ignore these problems for a while, as in 1987, before rolling over; US equities are overpriced and vulnerable, and he advises moving out of them.
SPY SHORT
US real estate bubble risks burst.
He warns that if the US real estate bubble bursts, homeowners could lose their equity, leading to less consumer spending and banks being stuck with foreclosed real estate valued below the loans.
US Real Estate AVOID
Banks face real estate foreclosure losses.
Banks would be hurt if the real estate bubble bursts because they would be left holding foreclosed real estate with negative value relative to the loans they made.
KBE AVOID
Buy silver after sharp pullback.
Silver around $64 is about half its February/March high, which he calls a great pullback to buy; he also ends by telling people to buy gold and silver.
SILVER LONG
Own oil and energy companies.
He owns a lot of oil-company stocks and expects to gain as higher oil prices benefit producers. He acknowledges some US winners but says most Americans lose, and later includes energy companies among the international resource investments he favors.
XLE LONG
Gold miners are cheap; buy.
Gold miners are still very cheap, so he thinks people should be buying them alongside gold and silver.
GDX LONG
Buy resource companies for AI buildout.
Even if the AI/data-center/robotics buildout continues, investors do not have to own tech stocks. The buildout requires many resources, and he owns those resources because selling them into the buildout should be more profitable than buying tech companies. He recommends commodity-focused companies, other resource companies, and industrial materials internationally.
Commodity/resource companies LONG
Industrial materials LONG
Avoid AI/tech; buy resources instead.
The AI capex boom is heavily debt-financed and circular: companies selling equipment lend to customers who often own the sellers' stock, and the spending has not yet generated profits. The borrowing is also pushing interest rates higher. He would rather own the resources needed for data centers and robots than tech companies.
XLK AVOID
Move abroad into cheaper international equities.
US assets are overpriced and vulnerable, so he recommends investing abroad into better-valued international equities and emerging markets. Foreign commodity-focused businesses also benefit from global resource demand.
EEM LONG
ACWX LONG
HIGH
21:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
AIQ 1ST
SMH
SOX
▾
HIGH
AI infrastructure and semiconductor momentum to recover
GPT-6 Astra is a fresh AI shock that Jensen Huang describes as general AI or the start of AGI, improving task performance and scope and driving exponentially larger agent token usage and inference demand. UBS's AI flywheel implies more adoption, token demand, and data-center capex, while Morgan Stanley sees expanded opportunity in bottleneck AI computing, networking, and memory. The speaker expects AI infrastructure and semiconductor momentum and sentiment to strengthen, and after a one-to-two-month rest, the PHLX Semiconductor Index and related AI infrastructure names may recover losses and prior highs; he favors selecting names with competitive advantages and strong earnings momentum.
AIQ LONG
SMH LONG
SOX LONG
HIGH
21:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
GLD 1ST
BTC 1ST
TLT 1ST
USD 1ST
PRIV11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Safe-haven basket: USD, Treasuries, gold, Bitcoin
A caixinha safe haven usa ativos com correlação negativa com a renda variável: dólar, títulos públicos americanos, ouro e Bitcoin. Dólar, Treasuries e ouro já são usados; o Bitcoin está em testes para achar a alocação ideal, com o objetivo de reduzir volatilidade e melhorar o Sharpe.
GLD LONG
TLT LONG
USD LONG
Bitcoin small allocation for diversification
Bitcoin é uma reserva de valor com oferta controlada e opera por oferta e demanda. É alternativa ao controle dos bancos centrais e à emissão contínua de dólares, podendo proteger de uma crise do dólar ou do real. Entidades soberanas podem adotá-lo como hedge geopolítico/militar contra trilhos financeiros como o SWIFT, o que reforça a tese de longo prazo.
BTC LONG
Private credit ETF PRIV11 launches, high-grade debentures
A Café está lançando o PRIV11, quarto ETF de crédito privado do Brasil, previsto para 15 de outubro. Ele usa o índice proprietário da IDEX/JGP com as 350 principais debêntures, aplica filtros para selecionar as 100 melhores e exclui risco de varejo. O produto faz parte da caixinha pós-fixada.
PRIV11.SA LONG
B3 must adapt to tokenization/global competition
A B3 não concorre apenas com outras bolsas: sofre com efeito winner-takes-all, menor fricção, competição global e tokenização. Ela deve evoluir para uma prateleira de fundos e ampliar horários de negociação rumo a 24 horas para continuar relevante.
B3SA3.SA WATCH
Systematic inflation/pre-fixed ETF IFLA11
A Café está desenvolvendo o IFLA11, um ETF sistemático que migra entre pré-fixado e inflação, alternando duration curta e longa conforme a matemática. A estrutura em fundo reduz a carga tributária de rebalanceamentos que seriam caros na pessoa física.
IFLA11.SA WATCH
Bearish BRL on poor monetary history
Ele não olha o real com bons olhos: o Brasil já teve 11 moedas e não tem longo histórico de moeda bem-sucedida, apenas cerca de 30 anos do Plano Real. Há risco de inflação e desvalorização, então prefere cautela com o BRL.
BRL SHORT
Largest allocation to Brazilian post-fixed rates
A maior caixinha da carteira é de renda fixa pós-fixada brasileira, incluindo títulos públicos e crédito privado. É um play de juros, podendo alternar entre pré e pós dependendo da direção.
Renda fixa pós-fixada brasileira LONG
IMAB allocation for rates and inflation
A caixinha IMAB é uma alocação em títulos públicos brasileiros indexados à inflação, um play de duration em juros e inflação. Eles estão desenvolvendo um ETF sistemático para implementá-la.
IMAB LONG
Robotics as next decade AI opportunity
Uma das grandes oportunidades da próxima década é a robótica, aplicando os avanços de LLMs/IA ao mundo físico. O gargalo para sistemas autônomos está na interação e no feedback contínuo com o mundo físico, então bits precisam virar átomos.
ROBO LONG
HIGH
20:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
AMC token pair
▾
HIGH
AMC token pair carries unregulated-market risks.
Brett Redfearn is more concerned about the synthetic AMC-token ecosystem than about the simple offshore synthetic itself: the AMC token pair and the meme coins/derivatives built on top of it trade in completely unregulated markets, often over weekends when there is no underlying AMC market liquidity, so some participants can make money while others can lose heavily. This makes the AMC token pair a risky, dangerous instrument to own.
AMC token pair AVOID
HIGH
17:41
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
Luxury handbags
Watches and jewelry
TLT
Luxury ready-to-wear
▾
HIGH
Oil prices face upward supply-demand pressure.
Middle East supply disruptions, including attacks that shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, are tightening the global oil market, and China returning to oil purchases would add further upward pressure on crude prices.
WTI LONG
Luxury handbags and RTW are weak.
Luxury handbags and luxury ready-to-wear are weak as creative-director churn and archive recycling fail to create newness, while consumers shift toward more affordable, quality mid-tier fashion.
Luxury handbags AVOID
Luxury ready-to-wear AVOID
Watches and jewelry remain luxury bright spot.
Watches and jewelry are the stronger part of the luxury market, still doing well even as handbags and ready-to-wear struggle.
Watches and jewelry LONG
High bond yields are structural new normal.
The world has shifted from a savings glut to a dearth of savings and enormous investment needs, including retiring baby boomers, defense spending, government debt, and AI capex, creating structural pressure for interest rates and bond yields to stay high and making long-dated Treasuries unattractive.
TLT SHORT
Consumers favor affordable quality mid-tier fashion.
A small middle tier of fashion, not high luxury but also not cheap fast fashion, is doing well because consumers want affordable, tasteful, well-made items they can buy in quantity, as seen with Ralph Lauren and Coach.
Middle-tier fashion LONG
Ralph Lauren benefits from accessible premium demand.
Ralph Lauren is doing very well because shoppers want to buy multiple good-enough, tasteful cashmere sweaters and other items at accessible prices rather than spending heavily on every high-luxury piece.
RL LONG
Refined fuel shortage supports diesel/jet prices.
Refined product shortages are acute because Gulf refineries have been shut, Russian refineries have been hit, China has cut refined-product exports, and U.S. refineries are running near 98% capacity ahead of seasonal maintenance turnarounds, keeping diesel and jet fuel prices elevated.
DIESEL LONG
CRAK LONG
Strong earnings support US equities.
The U.S. economic backdrop remains strong, with surprisingly upside growth, broad-based Q2 earnings strength including 51% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth, and no fundamental reason to be overly bearish despite near-term Fed and geopolitical uncertainty.
SPY LONG
Prada price-quality gap risks customer backlash.
Prada's luxury pricing, such as $4,000 boxer briefs, looks increasingly disconnected from quality, and customers are becoming wise to products whose craftsmanship does not justify the price.
1913 AVOID
AI investment cycle still has runway.
Peak investor anxiety around AI has passed after Q2 earnings showed strong broad-based fundamentals, and the AI investment cycle appears to be in early-to-mid innings with substantial runway left, even though ROI and capex payback remain key questions.
AI-SECTOR LONG
HIGH
17:29
Sep 12
Sep 12
Joseph Wang
6h
BNO
UGA
DIESEL
Front-end and belly US Treasuries
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Oil supply shock lifts crude and products.
Middle East supply disruptions are tightening the oil market: Iran has been disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis took Mocha and can threaten Bab el-Mandeb shipping, and the Saudi East-West pipeline was temporarily shut by attacks from Iraq. With SPR inventories dwindling and Chinese demand returning, less Middle Eastern oil is getting out, squeezing crude and refined products like diesel and gasoline higher and raising global inflation pressure.
BNO LONG
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
Fed hiking cycle lifts front-end yields.
The Fed is set to hike next week and begin a proper hiking cycle, with the market pricing a 90% chance for September and as many as four hikes over the next 12 months; the speaker thinks three hikes is not unreasonable. Hot core CPI met Waller's threshold, and the front end and belly of the Treasury curve sold off as the market expected the Fed to bring inflation under control.
Front-end and belly US Treasuries SHORT
Oil inflation drives global yields higher.
Secretary Bessent tried to cap 30-year yields by expanding Treasury buybacks from $2B to at least $6B, but the market was disappointed because it wanted a $10B bazooka and the first operation only bought $5.1B. The speaker argues that expanding size will not work unless the buyback algorithm is changed to overpay for expensive bonds; with yields trading above Bessent's 5.3% panic point at about 5.35%, the long end remains under pressure.
TLT SHORT
No Fed hike would implode bonds.
If the Fed does not hike next week despite the market fully expecting it and inflation/oil trends rising, the bond market would likely implode, especially at the long end, because it would signal the Fed is not independent and is under Trump administration control. The long end would be hit hardest if the Fed fails to act.
Long-end US Treasuries WATCH
HIGH
15:29
Sep 12
Sep 12
AI-SECTOR
▾
HIGH
AI is real and transformative
Fukuyama argues that AI is a genuine technological revolution that will have huge consequences, unlike crypto/blockchain. He cautions that the technology is moving so fast that society cannot adjust and governments lack the capacity to regulate it, which reinforces its importance as a major secular theme to monitor.
AI-SECTOR WATCH
HIGH
15:10
Sep 12
Sep 12
Artificial Intelligence
SPY
WTI
UNG
▾
HIGH
AI cycle still has long runway.
Agati says strong Q2 earnings and broad-based fundamentals have pushed AI anxiety into the background. She believes the AI cycle is still in early-to-mid innings with a lot of runway left, even though investors will eventually focus on the peak in CapEx spending and return on invested capital.
Artificial Intelligence LONG
Near-term equities stall; strong earnings support.
Agati expects the equity market may stall in the short run as the geopolitical conflict lasts longer than anticipated and the bond market pushes back on the macro backdrop. However, she says strong economic growth and broad-based Q2 earnings growth, including 51% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth, mean investors should not get overly bearish.
SPY WATCH
Longer war keeps energy supply risk elevated.
Agati says the Middle East conflict is lasting much longer than the market expected, keeping focus on how geopolitics affects energy policy and supply. She notes that without the conflict, the backdrop for oil, gas, energy, and commodity prices would be very different, so energy-driven inflation and supply risk remain important to monitor.
WTI WATCH
UNG WATCH
HIGH
14:54
Sep 12
Sep 12
DIESEL 1ST
CRAK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Diesel and jet fuel supply stays tight.
Global refined-product supplies are tight, especially diesel and jet fuel, because Gulf refineries are shut, Russian refineries have been hit, and China has cut refined-product exports. US refineries have been running near 98% of capacity to fill the gap, but the approaching fall maintenance/turnaround season risks reducing output, which should keep upward pressure on diesel and jet fuel prices.
DIESEL LONG
CRAK LONG
HIGH
14:35
Sep 12
Sep 12
Luxury handbags
RL 1ST
Watches and jewelry
Luxury ready-to-wear
High-end luxury
▾
HIGH
Handbags and luxury ready-to-wear weaken
The luxury industry is in a tricky moment; handbags are going down and luxury ready-to-wear has not been doing well as consumers reassess labels and prices.
Luxury handbags AVOID
Luxury ready-to-wear AVOID
Accessible luxury brands gain on value focus
The luxury market is in a tricky moment as label obsession fades and consumers prioritize price, design, quality and lasting value. Shoppers want tasteful, well-made items they can buy in quantity rather than ultra-expensive pieces, which is helping middle-tier accessible brands such as Ralph Lauren and Coach; Ralph Lauren is doing well as consumers buy multiple cashmere sweaters, and Coach has had a huge resurgence as design and affordability make it cool again.
RL LONG
Watches and jewelry outperform weak luxury categories
Watches and jewelry are doing well even as handbags and luxury ready-to-wear struggle, showing that luxury consumers are still willing to spend in these categories.
Watches and jewelry LONG
Overpriced high-end luxury risks consumer backlash
High-end luxury brands are pushing prices to levels that even wealthy shoppers find absurd, while product quality does not always justify the price; customers are becoming wise to this mismatch, creating risk for overpriced luxury labels such as Prada.
High-end luxury AVOID
HIGH
14:10
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI 1ST
TLT 1ST
US Treasury yields
Fed Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury Yield
▾
HIGH
Iran war pushes oil prices higher
The war in Iran continues and could escalate, pushing oil prices higher and feeding inflation. That oil-driven inflation in turn adds to the case for higher bond yields.
WTI LONG
Structural savings dearth keeps rates high
The global economy has shifted from a savings glut and a shortage of investment to a dearth of saving and huge investment needs. Retiring baby boomers, China and petro-states no longer recycling surpluses into US Treasuries, the end of the post-Cold War peace dividend and higher defense spending, and massive AI investment all point to structural upward pressure on interest rates and bond yields. Higher rates are therefore the new normal, and governments, businesses and households face much higher costs to carry and roll over debt accumulated during cheap-money years.
TLT SHORT
US Treasury yields LONG
Fed hike next week protects credibility
Markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hike at next week's meeting after higher bond yields and hawkish Jackson Hole comments. Warsh said he would listen to markets, and markets have signaled a hike; failing to hike would damage his and the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility. A hike is what makes sense for the economy and markets, even though it will likely trigger political blowback from President Trump, who wants lower rates.
Fed Funds Rate LONG
Long-end yields hinge on Fed credibility
Long-end US bond yields, especially 10-year and 30-year yields, have been high partly because investors worry the Fed is losing credibility as an inflation fighter. If Warsh hikes and restores that credibility, there could be a Goldilocks outcome in long-end rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
30-year Treasury yield WATCH
HIGH
14:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
European solar
Europe battery energy storage
European grid infrastructure
European standalone solar projects
Residential battery storage
▾
HIGH
European solar growth remains attractive long term
Solar has become a huge success in Europe with over 400 GW installed, and growth has been exponential because technology costs have fallen dramatically. He views negative power prices and price cannibalization as transitionary growing pains rather than a structural end to the buildout, and sees substantial long-term growth potential if grids and storage catch up.
European solar LONG
Europe battery storage set for rapid growth
Battery energy storage is critical for solving solar's timing mismatch by shifting electricity from low-demand hours to high-demand hours and easing grid constraints. Europe installed around 36 GWh of battery storage in 2025, and the installed base is projected to exceed 500 GWh by 2030, implying rapid acceleration from a low base.
Europe battery energy storage LONG
Grid investment essential for European energy transition
Storage is not a silver bullet; Europe must also reinforce and expand grid infrastructure to transport electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed. Grid investment is essential for the energy transition and is becoming the limiting factor for further solar growth.
European grid infrastructure LONG
Standalone solar faces price cannibalization risk
Standalone solar projects face price cannibalization because neighboring projects all generate at the midday peak and quickly exhaust available demand, causing wholesale power prices to fall sharply or turn negative. This creates boom-and-bust conditions and can leave renewable generators suffering from their own success.
European standalone solar projects AVOID
Cheaper batteries drive residential storage adoption
Battery storage has become much cheaper, so almost all new residential solar systems now include battery storage and increasingly larger batteries, improving self-consumption and system economics.
Residential battery storage LONG
HIGH
13:56
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
▾
HIGH
Oil supply risk from Iran-Houthi attacks
The Houthis can shut down Red Sea traffic, and their attacks, along with Iran's efforts to control Persian Gulf traffic and pipelines, have disrupted the US strategy of stabilizing oil markets at a high level. Attacks on Saudi oil fields and pipelines are a prelude to Iranian demands, keeping oil supply disruption risk elevated.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
13:30
Sep 12
Sep 12
Milk Road Macro
10h
GLD
BTC
SILVER
Stock Market
▾
HIGH
Gold and silver are in supercycle
Terpin says gold and silver are probably already in a commodity supercycle that began in 2023, driven by heavy money printing and monetary debasement, with changing scarcity and new buyers supporting the move. He does not know how long it will run but calls the setup pretty concrete and says he would have invested hard into gold after writing about a money-printing supercycle.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Bitcoin rises over four-year halving cycles
Terpin says the halving cycle is the fundamental driver of Bitcoin price and believes it will continue for at least 20 years. Because new money entering the ecosystem between halvings has exceeded issuance inflation, Bitcoin rose from $12 to $670 to $8,700 to $63,900 at successive halvings; he expects the next halving price to be higher than $63,900, possibly around double, and sees Bitcoin as the best-performing asset class over the next decade or two.
BTC LONG
Stock market likely parabolic into 2029
Terpin expects the stock market to follow its 10-year cycle pattern and produce a parabolic rally, peaking at unforeseen levels in 2029 around the same time Bitcoin likely peaks. He frames this as part of an everything-bubble and money-printing environment, though he also warns the decade-end bubble eventually pops.
Stock Market LONG
HIGH
13:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
GLD
DIESEL 1ST
UHN
TLT
▾
HIGH
Energy prices higher; $100 oil normal.
Affordability is the dominant issue. Inflation from the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has created global shortages of both crude and refined products. Refinery maintenance season and the seasonal shift to heating oil will tighten supply further, so pump prices, diesel, and heating oil are likely to rise, and $100 oil should be treated as normal.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
UHN LONG
Accumulate gold and silver on weakness.
He has been accumulating more gold and silver into weakness as medium-to-long-term physical-value trades. Western trading markets are not the key driver; physical demand from China, Russia, and other central banks is strong, and Russia's large gold sale to China did not return to the market. Gold is in a holding pattern but should move to $6,000-$7,000 after a fiscal catalyst such as a bad Treasury auction.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
10-year Treasury yields higher; short bonds.
The 10-year Treasury yield around 5% is the new normal, and he expects it to go higher, with traders eyeing 5.5%. The federal budget deficit, reduced confidence in U.S. leadership, and the Fed's unwillingness to return to QE mean long-term yields are being set by the market rather than controlled by policymakers.
TLT SHORT
Flagstar is a cheap turnaround holding.
He owns Flagstar, bought very cheaply as a turnaround story, and has enormous respect for the management team. It is one of only two banks he owns.
FBC LONG
GSE release unlikely; avoid Fannie/Freddie.
There is absolutely no chance Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be released from government control. Washington likes the revenue flowing through the federal budget, so shareholders hoping for a release will be disappointed. The recent management departures add to the lack of strategic focus.
FNMA AVOID
FMCC AVOID
Home price correction spreading nationwide.
A home price correction is already visible in Florida, where prices between I-95 and I-75 are falling dramatically, and it will spread to the rest of the country next year. Higher financing costs and affordability pressures support the correction, with 'misery on the eights' coming.
US home prices SHORT
Avoid big money-center banks now.
Big money-center banks are not moving and he is not a fan of any of them at this point. Financials are sidelined by uncertainty over interest rates, and investors looking for stock price appreciation should look elsewhere. He would be careful with banks now.
KBE AVOID
Schwab benefits from inflation-driven asset growth.
He owns Schwab for growth, as a way to benefit from the increase in assets under management, which is tied to inflation. It is one of only two banks he owns.
SCHW LONG
Washington Federal merger is nothing burger.
The Washington Federal and EverBank merger is a nothing burger, and he would not run out to buy the stock; he is certainly not going to buy it.
WAFD AVOID
HIGH
12:46
Sep 12
Sep 12
DIESEL 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
US diesel prices keep rising
US diesel prices are rising because of a combination of crude oil shortages caused by Middle East disruptions and insufficient global refining capacity. Policymakers cannot add refining capacity in the short term; supply releases or export restrictions may be needed, and higher diesel costs are likely to feed inflation across the economy.
DIESEL LONG
Crude oil prices face upward supply pressure
The war has shut the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the most important bypass for Middle East crude, threaten about 5% of global oil supplies. If the pipeline remains closed or requires repairs, global energy shortages would deepen; even if it reopens soon, repeated attacks on alternative routes create supply uncertainty. China returning to oil purchases would add further upward pressure because global supply is constrained, forcing demand destruction elsewhere. This supports higher crude oil prices.
WTI LONG
HIGH
12:27
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
▾
MED
Oil supply disruption worth monitoring
Houthi attacks in Yemen and Saudi Arabia's pipeline shutdown are disrupting Middle East oil flows, creating a developing supply-side risk that keeps the Iran war at the top of the BRICS agenda.
WTI WATCH
MED
12:14
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
▾
MED
Houthi escalation reflected in elevated oil
Houthi involvement adds a major new escalation to the Iran conflict, a negative development for the US that Trump is trying to downplay. Mason says this is reflected in energy markets, with oil briefly trading above $110 a barrel, and there is no clear de-escalation path because no peace talks are underway.
WTI WATCH
MED
12:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
DIESEL
UHN
WTI
UGA
CVX
▾
HIGH
Refining bottlenecks tighten refined products.
The bigger bottleneck is refining, not crude alone: consumers buy gasoline, diesel and heating oil, and refining capacity in the Middle East, Asia Pacific and Russia is disrupted, making refined products especially tight.
DIESEL LONG
UHN LONG
UGA LONG
Hormuz disruption supports crude oil prices.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz affects roughly 20% of global oil supply and is a major bullish supply shock; Venezuela can add some barrels but cannot be the solution by itself, so crude oil prices remain supported.
WTI LONG
Chevron Venezuela growth is long-dated.
Chevron's announced $7 billion investment aims to double Venezuela production from around 250,000-300,000 barrels per day to 600,000 barrels per day over five years, but the project depends on contract stability, property rights and a lower political risk premium, making it a long-dated and uncertain optionality rather than a near-term catalyst.
CVX WATCH
HIGH
11:57
Sep 12
Sep 12
May 2027 WTI crude oil futures
CL 1ST
WTI 1ST
OILK 1ST
2-year Treasury note
▾
HIGH
May 2027 oil futures mispriced low.
Chase has migrated from December WTI into May 2027 WTI futures because the far-dated contracts are much lower and have less downside if the war ends; if the conflict lasts a few more months, May and other far-dated contracts in the 70s are mispriced relative to the ongoing supply disruption.
May 2027 WTI crude oil futures LONG
CL LONG
Oil higher while war persists.
Chase has been long crude oil through the war and expects WTI to keep moving higher as long as the conflict continues. The Houthis control Bab el-Mandeb and Iran can influence the Strait of Hormuz; SPR releases and China's pullback capped the move earlier, but Chinese buying is returning and two strategic choke points are now at risk. He sees the trade as binary: war on, oil higher; war off, oil much lower.
WTI LONG
OILK benefits from crude backwardation.
For investors who want crude exposure without K-1 tax headaches, Chase likes OILK because the extreme backwardation allows the ETF to monetize roll yield. It pays monthly dividends, the last was around a 30% annualized rate, total return has been over 50% year-to-date, and it has beaten semiconductors.
OILK LONG
Front-end Treasuries attractive as hikes overpriced.
Despite being an inflationist, Chase thinks the front end has become attractive because the market has caught up and now prices roughly three to four hikes. He doubts the Fed will hike five or more times, and if growth or consumption cracks, the Fed may pivot; he likes the two-year Treasury from the long side.
2-year Treasury note LONG
S&P breadth deterioration warrants watching.
Patrick notes the S&P 500 chart looks technically healthy, but market breadth has collapsed: the share of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average halved, and industrials, defense contractors, and rate-sensitive names broke down. If the index is going to 8,000, it is unclear where leadership will come from, so the breadth deterioration is a key setup to watch.
SPY WATCH
Tactical AI longs with tight stops.
Chase is open to tactical long AI and semiconductor trades because earnings and outlooks remain strong and valuations are not extreme, and if the war ends and rates pull back, investors may rotate back into the group. However, technological revolutions eventually overbuild, so he would use calls or outright longs with tight stops to define risk, citing SMH and DRAM/memory as having become overlevered before correcting.
SMH LONG
Fixed income no longer core allocation.
Chase argues fixed income is no longer a core asset class because global savings have peaked, the world is becoming more multipolar, and countries will want capital back for defense and domestic needs. That keeps cost of capital higher, so investors should not have 40% or even 10% in fixed income; it is now a tactical trading sardine.
TLT AVOID
Mag 7 face cost-of-capital drag.
Chase is cautious on the Magnificent Seven because higher cost of capital and interest expenses will start hitting earnings, while capex is spread out and flatters current earnings. He does not think Mag 7 will save the market as long as the war and high rates persist, though he is not calling for a large decline.
MAGS AVOID
Gold bullish medium and long term.
Chase is a medium- and long-term gold bull. If the war ends, gold could rip; if the Treasury or Fed uses TGA spending, QE, or other gimmicks to suppress yields, gold should also rip. If the war continues, a new low is possible, but he still loves being involved over the medium and long term.
GLD LONG
Cheap semiconductor optionality offers tactical upside.
Patrick highlights that semiconductor implied volatility has collapsed, with Nvidia options near one-year lows. That makes optionality cheap for expressing tactical upside in semiconductors without overpaying, especially if the group has another leg higher.
NVDA LONG
Tropical agricultural commodities offer asymmetric upside.
Chase likes a broad agricultural commodities basket but prefers tropical softs because they are not grown everywhere and are more exposed to localized weather and fertilizer problems. He specifically favors a combo of rice, sugar, cocoa, and coffee, with coffee potentially coming back after weakness.
DBA LONG
Rice LONG
CANE LONG
COCOA LONG
KC LONG
Apple showing accumulation and leadership.
Patrick points out Apple has broken higher, closed a gap, and is being accumulated with visible flows, providing leadership when the market needs it. He says it is one to watch for continued relative strength.
AAPL WATCH
Copper crowded, caution warranted.
Chase likes copper but warns that bullish positioning is extremely crowded, with speculators piling into longs while gross shorts are flat. A break of the trendline and 50-day moving average could trigger an obvious exit, and tariff speculation adds unwanted uncertainty; copper often disappoints when everyone loves it.
COPPER AVOID
KROP base offers tight-stop upside.
Chase likes KROP, an agtech ETF, because it formed a beaten-up, long sideways base and has a tight-stop setup. It has tailwinds from China's ag innovation push and precision agriculture demand, and could run if the broader agriculture space is still early- or mid-cycle.
KROP LONG
Natural gas downside persists on oversupply.
Chase holds December 2026 natural gas puts and still sees downside. A combination of warm shoulder-season weather and rising associated gas production has left North America with too much gas that is hard to move, and he thinks the December contract can fall to around $3 unless a cold shot hits.
UNG SHORT
HIGH
11:33
Sep 12
Sep 12
222800.KQ 1ST
010120.KS
052690.KS 1ST
USD/KRW
EWY
▾
HIGH
Simmtech strong on AI data center chain.
Simmtech appeared in the weekly top 20 for the sixth time, showing persistent relative strength. He argues that stocks in the AI data center value chain, like Simmtech, can keep reappearing, and the market is signaling strength by not removing it.
222800.KQ LONG
Korean power suppliers benefit from Bloom.
Many Korean power equipment and battery names are closely tied to Bloom Energy; if Bloom Energy rises, related Korean suppliers can rise too. He names Sanil Electric and LS Electric as supply-chain expressions, with the logic of pairing US sector leaders with Korean suppliers, similar to LG Innotek and Apple.
010120.KS LONG
Hanjeon Kijul best nuclear trading vehicle.
Among nuclear names, Hanjeon Kijul is the better trading vehicle than Doosan Enerbility. It broke out on August 25 with volume exceeding all prior volume, formed an N-shaped pattern, and is up about 98% from lows versus Doosan's roughly 60%. It is smaller/mid-cap, more sensitive to the Westinghouse stake issue, and has stronger supply/demand momentum. The nuclear cycle is just starting.
052690.KS LONG
Won strength to continue below 1,300.
He expects USD/KRW to trend below 1,300 as won strength continues. Foreign investors see attractive KOSPI earnings and a stronger won, which should support Korean equities and foreign inflows even if macro headlines temporarily lift the dollar.
USD/KRW SHORT
KOSPI long on foreign flows, won strength.
Foreign investors' large YTD KOSPI selling overstates the risk because futures and options positioning shows they are not fleeing. Foreign selling is slowing, the won is likely to strengthen below 1,300, KOSPI earnings are attractive, new highs versus lows are nearing a golden cross, and the index historically reverts upward from trendline breaks. He favors buying dips rather than avoiding the market.
EWY LONG
AI power equipment, but expectations priced in.
Doosan Enerbility is not just a nuclear stock but a core equipment supplier for AI-era power shortages. Gas turbines generate current earnings (2026-29), large nuclear projects drive mid-term orders/profits (2027-32), and SMR is post-2030 optionality. It can supply key equipment whether data centers choose gas, large nuclear, or SMR. Contracts with US gas turbines, Czech Dukovany, and SMR developers are progressing. However, 2026 operating margin remains single-digit, free cash flow is negative, and the stock has already risen about 60% from its July low, pricing in expectations. Actual orders and cash flow must prove the narrative.
034020.KS WATCH
Prefer KOSPI over KOSDAQ on trend.
KOSPI is above its 5-week moving average and its trend is intact, while KOSDAQ is still capped by its 5-week line and cannot establish a trend. He prefers KOSPI over KOSDAQ; within stocks, those above the 60-day moving average are stronger.
KOSDAQ AVOID
AI data center infrastructure remains market leadership.
Despite high rates, the weekly US top 20 was dominated by AI data center-related companies such as HPE, HP, AMD, Dell, Corning, Marvell, and Qualcomm. He says this shows AI data center demand is strong and the AI infrastructure theme is broadening beyond Nvidia.
AI-SECTOR LONG
Korean chip equipment/materials lead on AI demand.
Six semiconductor equipment/materials names appeared in the weekly top 20, including SFA Semiconductor, DB HiTek, Jusung Engineering, Doosan Tesna, Simmtech, and Doosan. He distinguishes DB HiTek as an 8-inch foundry. These are tied to the AI data center value chain and could continue to recur, showing the market is in a correction rather than a bear market.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
AI power scarcity beneficiary, valuation demanding.
Bloom Energy is a key beneficiary of AI data center power bottlenecks because its solid-oxide fuel cells provide fast, modular, on-site power while grid connection, gas turbines, and SMRs are slow or supply-constrained. Oracle, Brookfield, and Microsoft contracts show commercial traction; Q2 revenue doubled to $1.07bn, operating profit turned positive, gross margin expanded, cash flow turned positive, and 2025 guidance is $3.9-4.2bn. However, EV/Sales near 20x is rich versus power infrastructure peers, competition includes grid/gas/SMR, and growth must continue to justify the valuation.
BE WATCH
Dell key AI data center assembler.
Open-weight AI is democratizing data center construction, so not only big tech but all countries and companies will build AI data centers. Dell is the key assembler and integrator of the '21st century computer' (the data center), taking GPUs and components and turning them into data centers, much like it assembled PCs in the past. He says investors must watch Dell closely.
DELL LONG
Prefer Bloom Energy over Doosan Fuel Cell.
If choosing between Bloom Energy's SOFC and Doosan Fuel Cell's PAFC, he would buy Bloom Energy. SOFC runs at 500-600°C, giving higher efficiency, while PAFC runs at 100-200°C, requires expensive platinum catalyst, and has lower thermodynamic efficiency. However, Bloom requires pure hydrogen, so cheap byproduct hydrogen supply and purification costs need monitoring.
336260.KS AVOID
DC/AC converter makers benefit from fuel cells.
Fuel cells and solar generate DC power, but the grid and most equipment use AC, so companies providing DC/AC conversion equipment benefit as fuel cells, solar, and ESS are deployed. He names Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) and Power Integrations (POWI) as companies to examine.
POWI LONG
AEIS LONG
CXMT threatens Samsung, SK Hynix memory lead.
CXMT, China's memory maker, has rapidly advanced from DDR4 in 2019 to mass-producing world-first DDR6 in September and is likely to develop HBM next. This is a structural competitive threat to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; the time gap is narrowing, and Korean memory makers need to widen their technology lead.
000660.KS AVOID
005930.KS AVOID
Legacy automakers lag on EV, autonomy.
German automakers are badly damaged by failing to respond to electric vehicles, and Volkswagen is in serious trouble. He worries Korean automakers face the same risk. Tesla's Cybercab looks revolutionary, and the US and China are ahead in autonomous driving and robotaxi, leaving legacy automakers exposed.
000270.KS AVOID
VOLKSWAGEN AVOID
005380.KS AVOID
AI agents, humanoid robots next final cycle.
The AI investment cycle will eventually move from infrastructure and data centers to the final productivity wave: AI agents and humanoid robots. This is the ultimate end-cycle theme, not an immediate trade, because the current capex cycle still needs infrastructure to be built, but it is the area to watch for the next phase of total factor productivity.
AI agents WATCH
Humanoid robots WATCH
Europe vulnerable to sovereign, manufacturing crisis.
He says the next crisis will come from Europe, especially Germany and France, not Southern Europe. The European social-democracy mixed-economy model is breaking, French finances are near crisis, and German/French government bond yields trading above Southern European yields are a market warning. He expects the crisis around 2028-2030.
VGK AVOID
AI threatens legacy software, sector weak.
Software was weak; GPT Astra raised concerns that generative AI can directly take over existing software functions, pressuring Adobe, Shopify, and Palantir. This is a structural threat to legacy software.
US Software AVOID
Meta AI agent shows consumer monetization.
Meta rose more than 6% after unveiling a personal AI agent. The market is starting to see Meta's massive AI investment convert into actual consumer services, improving the ROI narrative.
META LONG
Qualcomm wins Amazon AI chip deal.
Qualcomm was strong after signing a contract with Amazon worth up to $60bn for AI data center chips. This shows AI infrastructure investment broadening beyond Nvidia.
QCOM LONG
US banks benefit from deregulation credit cycle.
US policy is moving toward bank deregulation and tokenization to spur private credit creation, shifting liquidity from excess savings into investment. Banks will be able to lend more as reserve requirements ease, starting a credit cycle.
KBE LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
KQ
US 2-Year Treasury Yield
HPE 1ST
ANET 1ST
VICR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Robotics strength continues despite high rates
Optical communications and quantum computing may move on Monday, but the speaker does not see them as long-lasting sectors. Only RF Materials and Sungwoo Electronics are receiving institutional flows, so focus on those two rather than other theme stocks.
KQ LONG
2-year yield above 4.6% signals extra hikes
The 2-year Treasury yield above 4.6% already reflects a September FOMC hike. If it rises materially above 4.6%, the market would begin pricing additional hikes beyond September, which would be bad for equities; stabilization is needed.
US 2-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
AI data-center expansion lifts server names
Microsoft's plan to triple data-center capacity is a positive AI infrastructure catalyst. Combined with DeepSeek's cheaper model, efficiency should accelerate adoption of inference servers, HBM/GPU accelerators, networking and optical communications. The speaker highlights Dell, HPE, Super Micro, Arista, Cisco, and Marvell as beneficiaries.
HPE LONG
ANET LONG
DELL LONG
SMCI LONG
MRVL LONG
CSCO LONG
AI data centers drive power demand
Microsoft's data-center expansion and AI power demand supported power and nuclear names; Bloom Energy jumped nearly 7%, while GE Vernova and Vicor also surged. Although UBS downgraded nuclear and caused a selloff in NuScale and Oklo, the AI power-demand theme remains a positive driver.
VICR LONG
GEV LONG
BE LONG
High yields keep small caps weak
The speaker notes that Russell 2000 lagged the major US indices because long-term Treasury yields remain very high. In this rate environment, small caps are structurally disadvantaged and likely to remain relatively weak.
IWM AVOID
Watch 10-year yield near 5%
The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%, which is very high, but the positive point is that it has not spiked further and the upper end seems capped. The speaker wants yields to fall, and watches whether this cap holds because high long-term rates pressure equities.
US10Y WATCH
Iran-Gulf talks key for oil stabilization
WTI fell below $100 as the Iran-Gulf foreign minister meeting raised hopes for Hormuz stability, but war risks and the Saudi pipeline halt remain. Oil stabilization is important for inflation and rates, so the meeting outcome is a key variable to watch.
WTI WATCH
Cheaper AI expands memory and storage demand
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash reduced output costs and claimed large DRAM/SSD reductions, initially hitting memory and storage stocks. But past efficiency shocks were followed by more AI usage, not less; the Jevons paradox means cheaper AI expands total memory and storage demand. Short-term volatility, but the demand direction is positive for SK hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital.
MU LONG
SNDK LONG
STX LONG
WDC LONG
KS LONG
Clarity Act supports stablecoins and Treasuries
The Senate Clarity Act cloture vote on Tuesday is an important event. If it passes, demand for Treasuries could improve and yields stabilize; stablecoin and Clarity Act-related stocks may move as a theme on Monday or Tuesday, though it is speculative.
Stablecoin-related stocks WATCH
TLT WATCH
SOXX triangle awaits directional breakout
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is forming a symmetrical triangle with higher lows and lower highs, coiling energy. It could break either way once next week's uncertainty resolves, so wait for the directional breakout.
SOXX WATCH
AI events may sustain AI momentum
Next week has the AI Infra Summit, Oppenheimer AI conference, and KT Cloud Summit, with Nvidia and Intel participating. These events could keep AI demand and outlook headlines positive, similar to AMD's recent guidance raise, sustaining AI momentum.
AIQ WATCH
FOMC hike resolution could lift Korean equities
The speaker thinks the market has already reflected many negatives. If the FOMC hikes 25bp next Thursday, uncertainty may be resolved and Korean equities could rally rather than fall; one hike can be absorbed if recession risk stays contained. KOSPI and KOSDAQ are at important technical positions.
KQ11 WATCH
KOSPI (^KS11) WATCH
Cybersecurity momentum likely fades soon
Cybersecurity may only see a brief move into Monday morning, after which momentum is likely to fade. The speaker does not expect the sector to last long, so chasing it is unattractive.
CIBR AVOID
Robotics strength continues despite high rates
Robotics remains very strong. Robotis and other robot names held up despite high rates, and the speaker wants to keep watching the sector and buy on pullbacks.
Korean robotics sector LONG
Batteries and ESS stay strong
Secondary battery and ESS strength is continuing, so the speaker says to keep watching the sector. This is a positive ongoing theme.
Secondary batteries/ESS sector LONG
Wait for Korean semiconductor equipment bottom
The speaker wants to watch Korean semiconductors, AI, substrates, and equipment/materials next week, but selling pressure is still present. Wait for bottoming signs and a market turn before moving to a buying view.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials WATCH
Murata cuts boost MLCC supercycle hopes
Murata's decision to cut general-purpose MLCC production is raising supercycle expectations for MLCC names. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and the group are positive, but after the sharp move the speaker prefers buying on pullbacks rather than chasing.
MLCC sector LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
Fernando Ulrich
12h
TLT
GLD
EWZ
WTI
IEF FLIP
▾
HIGH
Treasuries longos americanos seguem frágeis
O Tesouro americano anunciou recompras de apenas US$ 6 bilhões em dívida longa, decepcionando o mercado e sem enfrentar o problema estrutural do déficit. O secretário Scott Bessent faz apenas paliativos e provoca o mercado; os juros do Treasury de 10 anos chegaram a 4,97% e o de 30 anos a 5,38%, sinalizando fragilidade e risco para títulos longos.
TLT AVOID
IEF AVOID
Fed imprimindo eleva ouro, Bitcoin, ações
Se o Fed começar a injetar liquidez e recomprar títulos para financiar o governo, isso será a assunção explícita de que é preciso imprimir dinheiro. Nesse cenário, o ouro voltaria acima de US$ 5.000, o Bitcoin acima de US$ 100.000 e as ações subiriam.
GLD LONG
BTC LONG
VT LONG
Eleição de Flávio favorece ativos brasileiros
Flávio Bolsonaro assumiu a liderança nas pesquisas e no Polymarket, e o mercado está precificando maior chance de mudança de governo com equipe econômica pró-mercado e responsabilidade fiscal. Isso favorece ativos brasileiros: o EWZ teve aposta recorde em opções de compra, o Ibovespa testou 189.000 pontos e o dólar caiu de cerca de 5,23 para 5,10.
EWZ LONG
Ibovespa LONG
USD/BRL SHORT
Conflito no Irã pressiona petróleo e diesel
A escalada do conflito com o Irã, com ataques a petroleiros e risco no Estreito de Ormuz, e a interrupção das exportações russas de diesel pressionaram o petróleo para cerca de US$ 104 e o diesel para cerca de US$ 5. Sem sinal claro de fim do conflito, o viés dos preços segue de alta.
WTI LONG
DIESEL LONG
Juros futuros brasileiros devem cair
O IPCA caiu 0,32% em agosto e acumula 4,2% em 12 meses, o que deve permitir ao Banco Central cortar a Selic com convicção em 16 de setembro e talvez acelerar o ciclo. O cenário eleitoral também pressiona juros futuros para baixo; vencimentos como 2035 e 2031 já caíram abaixo ou perto de 14%.
Juros futuros 2035 LONG
Juros futuros 2031 LONG
Petrobras segura preços e assume prejuízo
A defasagem dos preços da Petrobras em relação ao petróleo internacional está em nível histórico, quase 100%, porque a empresa segura os preços do diesel até as eleições enquanto importa a preços de mercado e revende controlado. Isso pressiona o caixa e configura uma bomba-relógio; em algum momento ela será obrigada a reajustar.
PETR4.SA AVOID
Bitcoin e OBTC3, não um ou outro
Ele diz que não é Bitcoin ou OBTC3, mas os dois: é investidor e conselheiro da OranjeBTC, e recomenda exposição conjunta a Bitcoin e à empresa listada OBTC3.
OBTC3 LONG
HIGH
08:30
Sep 12
Sep 12
KOSDAQ Semiconductor Equipment and Materials
Crypto Market
005930.KS FLIP
EWY
000660.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ chip suppliers face margin squeeze
He argues that rising raw-material and commodity prices, including copper, are a particular risk for KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment and materials suppliers. Unlike large caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, these smaller suppliers face input-cost pressure that can squeeze margins and lead to earnings shocks during earnings season, as already seen in the first half.
KOSDAQ Semiconductor Equipment and Materials AVOID
Yen-carry unwind threatens crypto correction
He sees the crypto market as the most exposed area if yen-carry trades unwind further. Although short-term speculative yen funding has largely been liquidated and an immediate broad stock-market shock is less likely, a renewed BOJ-driven unwind could trigger crypto ETF outflows and a large crypto-market correction, while medium- to long-term carry unwinds could keep pressuring risk assets.
Crypto Market WATCH
Won strength pressures Korean chip exporters
He views the recent large foreign selling in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as mostly mechanical: short-term profit-taking ahead of US futures and options expiration, program liquidation, and ETF relabeling rather than a medium-term foreign exit. However, if foreign selling persists into the following week, that would more likely reflect active funds taking profits and would deserve closer monitoring.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Hold Korean stocks; wait to add
He advises a neutral, patient stance on Korean equities: holders should endure rather than cut exposure, while investors with cash should wait rather than buy aggressively. July-August lows are already established, and the widely expected post-holiday or post-October rebound may be front-run by foreign investors, so aggressively reducing exposure just before the Korean Thanksgiving holiday is also risky.
EWY WATCH
Treasury yield spike may delay Fed hike
He argues the 10-year US Treasury yield spike toward 5% is partly an overshoot driven by next week's US futures/options expiration and disappointment over the Treasury buyback program's execution. High long-term yields may actually restrain the Fed from hiking immediately, and a fair assessment of yields should wait until after the expiration, when the overshoot can unwind.
US10Y WATCH
HIGH
08:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
WTI
▾
HIGH
OPEC weakening reduces oil price support
OPEC's cohesion is fracturing as the UAE exits, Iraq and Venezuela consider leaving, and members prioritize production over quotas. With the US now the world's largest oil producer and demand growth slowing, OPEC's ability to support oil prices is weakening, shifting energy-market influence toward Washington. This is a developing setup for oil prices rather than a clean directional trade.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
07:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
AI value chain
034020.KS
000660.KS
WTI
Korean quantum computing stocks
▾
HIGH
AI remains the core comfortable investment.
The speaker views AI as the most comfortable area to hold because AI demand is being verified and has no real alternative. U.S. growth is highly concentrated in AI, and China will not abandon the race, so the AI value chain remains the core investment theme.
AI value chain LONG
Doosan's premium rests on unique nuclear mix.
Doosan Enerbility trades at a very rich valuation, over 100x PER, but the market tolerates it because the company combines nuclear main-equipment and LNG gas-turbine exposure and lacks a direct U.S. peer for that combination. The nuclear order potential remains a large option, though the valuation keeps it a monitor rather than a fresh buy.
034020.KS WATCH
Hold Samsung and SK hynix.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix do not need to be sold at current prices. AI peak fears are overdone because AI demand is confirmed and lacks substitutes; U.S. growth is highly concentrated and China will keep investing, while upcoming dividends add support. He is more cautious only on other, more speculative stocks after strong rebounds.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Oil may fall rather than spike.
Oil upside may be more limited than feared. The speaker sees possible de-escalation around Iran and the Red Sea, U.S. political constraints before the midterms, and pressure on Iran's economy, raising the chance of compromise and an oil pullback rather than a sustained spike. He still stresses that the outcome is highly uncertain.
WTI WATCH
Prefer U.S. quantum over Korean.
Korean quantum-computing names are driven mainly by expectations rather than demonstrated earnings, so the speaker prefers U.S. quantum-computing opportunities over domestic Korean quantum stocks. He says he cannot name specific companies because of compliance, but repeatedly advises investors to seek quantum exposure in the U.S. rather than Korea.
Korean quantum computing stocks AVOID
QTUM LONG
Avoid new Korean refiner bets.
Korean refiners are poorly suited to this environment for the speaker. He sees them as one-hit businesses where a mistimed entry can leave investors stuck at a high for a long time. Unless oil-related shares sell off sharply, he sees no compelling reason to initiate a new refining position, and war-end or oil-plunge risk makes the setup fragile.
Korean oil refiners AVOID
AI power demand favors nuclear and LNG.
The power side of AI is a major bottleneck. The speaker expects trends to continue in nuclear, LNG, wind, and solar because AI data-center growth requires power, and Korea's first major U.S. investment projects in LNG and nuclear could catalyze actual orders, especially if nuclear projects are specified.
URA LONG
LNG LONG
TAN LONG
Wind Power LONG
Korean power equipment upside is capped.
Korean transformer and power-equipment makers have capped upside because they must be valued against global peers, especially U.S. companies. Their current valuation is only slightly cheap versus those peers, and the speaker does not think they can decouple from global peer multiples despite a long order backlog; he advises monitoring global peers rather than expecting a standalone rally.
Korean Power Equipment AVOID
Watch Korean construction on pullbacks.
Construction is a common denominator across AI data centers, nuclear plants, and LNG projects. The speaker prefers Korean construction companies with sound finances, experience, and project track records, and suggests watching them on pullbacks rather than chasing strength.
Korean construction sector WATCH
HIGH
06:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
17h
China AI sector
China robotics sector
108490.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
China treats AI as sovereignty priority
China views AI sovereignty as an existential issue after historical humiliation by Western technology, so it is refusing to depend on the US AI and semiconductor ecosystem. The government is mobilizing elite talent and capital into domestic AI, with 38% of top global AI experts educated in China and DeepSeek showing that domestically trained talent can compete at the frontier. This makes China's AI sector a strategically supported theme to monitor.
China AI sector WATCH
China pushes robotics as national priority
China is pushing robotics as a national strategic priority, reflected in government support, a large World Robot Conference, Unitree's recent listing and investor interest, and broad engagement from Chinese students and parents. The scale of state backing and grassroots attention make China's robotics sector a key long-term theme to monitor.
China robotics sector WATCH
Robotis actuator sales grow in China
Robotis is pursuing an actuator-based humanoid solution business, supplying actuators and technology to humanoid robot makers while using overseas production bases to match Chinese price competitiveness. It sold 80,000 of 220,000 actuators in China last year and 90,000 to China in the first half of this year, showing fast China-driven growth and a differentiated position versus Chinese humanoid assemblers.
108490.KQ LONG
HIGH
05:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
US10Y 1ST
^KS11
Korean semiconductor sector
005930.KS
Korean shareholder-return sectors
▾
HIGH
High rates and long yields stay elevated.
High interest rates are likely to persist and market yields will not fall easily. Even if the Fed cuts, heavy government deficit-driven bond supply and Big Tech/AI-related debt issuance should keep term premiums and long-term rates elevated. Big Tech free cash flow is expected to remain negative until late 2027, so relief from high rates may only come later.
US10Y LONG
KOSPI breaks 7,000 and levels up.
KOSPI can break above the 7,000 level again and then settle above it, turning that threshold from resistance into support. The two days spent above 7,000 changed investor perception, and with foreign buying likely to lead the market into year-end, the index can move to a higher range even if volatility and sector rotation continue.
^KS11 LONG
Korean semiconductors recover; do not sell rebounds.
Korean semiconductors, including Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS), should recover further. After Nvidia's earnings, fears that semiconductor earnings would roll over, the memory cycle would peak early, and the investment cycle would soon turn down have been largely removed. Heavy retail positioning and high margin balances in the sector are an overhang, but the preferred path is a price recovery that lowers the credit-to-market-cap ratio, so investors should not sell on rebounds and instead wait for better exit or recovery opportunities.
Korean semiconductor sector LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Favor Korean shareholder-return sectors.
The Korean market's focus has shifted from earnings expectations and narratives toward actual earnings conversion and shareholder cash returns. Many of the largest KOSPI sectors, including semiconductors, defense, banks, autos, machinery, IT, and holding companies, are increasingly shareholder-return friendly, so increasing exposure to shareholder-return sectors in the second half is attractive, with selectivity on autos due to FX.
Korean shareholder-return sectors LONG
Korean financials lead shareholder-return plays.
Within the shareholder-return theme, Korean financials are the priority: banks, insurers, holding companies, and securities firms. They are moving toward developed-market-style total payout ratios and are best positioned for the market's growing emphasis on monetizing growth into cash returns.
KBE LONG
Korean insurance LONG
Korean holding companies LONG
Korean securities LONG
Wait on Korean autos for FX revisions.
Korean automakers have shareholder-return appeal, but won strength has not yet been reflected in third-quarter or annual earnings estimates. Because analyst estimate cuts are likely from late September or October, investors eyeing autos should wait for that estimate revision process before entering.
CARZ WATCH
HIGH
02:37
Sep 12
Sep 12
Morgan Stanley
21h
US Housing
▾
HIGH
Homeownership best channel for wealth accumulation
Homeownership remains the best channel toward wealth accumulation because it is a large asset that is more equally distributed across the income distribution than equities; buyers who locked in low fixed-rate mortgages in 2019-2020 also benefited from over 50% home price appreciation, though timing and geography materially affect outcomes.
US Housing LONG
HIGH
02:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
21h
SK Hynix ADR
US10Y
TSM 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Local SK hynix shares should converge up.
The SK hynix ADR has traded at a large premium to local shares, and he expects that premium to converge. He prefers convergence through the local shares rising while the ADR follows or lags, because US market internals are weakening while Korean internals are improving.
SK Hynix ADR WATCH
Watch 5% US 10-year yield.
The US 10-year Treasury yield near 5% is a key threshold under Taylor-rule estimates and relative to S&P 500 valuations. He thinks 5% may be touched, which could cause a risk-asset dip, but that dip could become an upside factor if yields stabilize and the Fed tightening path remains limited.
US10Y WATCH
SPY WATCH
TSMC capacity lags AI demand.
TSMC reported very strong results, with four consecutive months of record monthly revenue and capacity expansion still unable to keep up with AI orders. This is a company-specific signal that AI semiconductor demand remains robust.
TSM LONG
Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.
There is heavy trapped supply between the current KOSPI level and its prior high, about KRW 91.6tn, with roughly KRW 30tn in Samsung Electronics and KRW 35tn in SK hynix. This overhead supply makes rallies prone to selling and likely caps near-term upside until it is absorbed.
005930.KS WATCH
Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.
Memory cycles have historically been about three years, but Samsung and SK hynix argue that long-term agreements now extend to five years. In the next downturn, if LTAs are honored despite lower spot prices, memory companies can be re-rated from cyclical names into cash cows; HBM LTA reassessment may become visible by next summer, benefiting SK hynix.
000660.KS WATCH
Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.
KOSPI is historically cheap on forward valuation, and earnings have risen while the index has fallen, creating an unusual divergence. Since long-term stock prices follow earnings, he expects convergence through some earnings slowdown and a higher KOSPI, making the macro-driven weakness an opportunity.
EWY WATCH
AI semiconductor demand remains strong.
AI semiconductor demand remains strong, evidenced by OpenAI Astra usage limits, TSMC's record sales and capacity constraints, Microsoft's planned data-center compute expansion, and Meta's new model. He does not see an AI bubble yet; power and GPU supply are the bottlenecks, and more Astra-like applications could sustain momentum.
SMH LONG
Physical AI is next re-rating catalyst.
AI has moved from learning to inference and toward AGI, but the ultimate endpoint is physical AI. When AI-embedded mobility or autonomous vehicles become visibly commercialized, the market can re-rate the physical AI theme.
Physical AI WATCH
BOJ hike strengthens yen.
The BOJ is likely to raise rates, and a hike strengthens the yen, which acts as a safety valve and creates downward pressure on US Treasury yields. If the BOJ surprises with a faster pace than 25bp, yen strength and carry-trade unwind risk could accelerate.
FXY LONG
China may pause Treasury selling.
At the upcoming US-China meeting, the two sides have opposite financial needs: the US needs long-term funds, while China has excess savings but has been selling Treasuries. He sees a possibility of a financial-side agreement, specifically China temporarily pausing Treasury sales, which would support US Treasuries.
TLT WATCH
HIGH
01:12
Sep 12
Sep 12
GLD 1ST
TLT 1ST
ITA
G7 10-year government bonds
North American auto manufacturers
▾
HIGH
Gold is not worth holding.
Gold is just a yellow metal that does not do anything helpful, most serious economists do not look at gold prices, and the gold-to-oil ratio is not a reliable macro or recession signal. Wolfers explicitly does not hold gold.
GLD AVOID
Long-term government bonds look unattractive.
The global bond sell-off is driven by a surge in demand for loans: the AI buildout is causing companies to borrow heavily, the U.S. government is running a historically large non-recession deficit with no political appetite for fiscal repair, and elevated geopolitical risk is likely to force more military spending. Those forces should keep long-term borrowing costs biased higher and create risk of a sudden fiscal crisis, making long-duration government bonds unattractive.
TLT AVOID
G7 10-year government bonds AVOID
Geopolitical risk supports defense spending.
Geopolitical risk is elevated and the post-war U.S. security umbrella is less certain. If Europe no longer feels secure, it will invest more in its military; the U.S. may spend more to sustain global military dominance; and Middle Eastern countries worried about the state of the world may also spend more. That points to a multi-year tailwind for defense spending.
ITA WATCH
Tariffs threaten North American auto manufacturing.
The U.S.-Canada tariff conflict threatens the integrated North American auto supply chain built under NAFTA and USMCA. A tariff wall would leave American automakers unable to get Canadian parts at competitive prices and Canadian manufacturers without nearby customers, making North American auto manufacturing smaller, less dynamic, and less competitive.
North American auto manufacturers AVOID
HIGH
01:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
Thread Guy
22h
SOL
Onchain crypto assets
STONK
HOOD
AI-SECTOR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Solana was never going to die.
He says he is not surprised Solana is not dead and insists Solana was never going to die. Although it was in a weird spot, it has come roaring back with the stock meme and the Solana crime family pushing it, and the Solana ecosystem is now hot. He also rejects the idea that Robinhood assets simply trade better, arguing launchpad proliferation diluted trading quality rather than killing Solana.
SOL LONG
Onchain is highest-ceiling crypto meta.
His biggest onchain belief is that if there is money in the ecosystem, developers will always find something new to trade. Tokenizing all assets and letting developers loop, lend, borrow, pair, and flip them creates the most creative and highest-ceiling meta; he says he loves onchain despite occasional fatigue.
Onchain crypto assets LONG
Stonk's reflexive launchpad incentives are interesting.
He finds Stonk interesting because holding it incentivizes users to launch new low-cap tokens; the resulting dividends and fees recycle money back into the ecosystem, creating a reflexive flywheel. He did not hold it and acknowledges missing the trade, so this is more of a monitorable setup than an active position.
STONK WATCH
Bought HOOD; active investing is rising.
He says he bought HOOD the other day and thinks it will age well, tying it to his broader thesis that active investing and social/mobile trading are rising. The buy is explicit even though the supporting argument is brief.
HOOD LONG
Big AI is a good trade.
He says the 'Big AI is going to kill the world' narrative is so ironclad and strong that it may be time to find an entry, calling it a pretty good trade. He later frames AI doom fears as a Y2K-style panic, keeping AI as a major market narrative.
AI-SECTOR LONG
Rise of active investing continues.
He calls the rise of active investing his strongest conviction: people want to take their finances into their own hands rather than just buy the S&P 500. He thinks social and mobile trading apps have a TikTok-like step-change potential and expects more retail participation across markets.
Active investing platforms LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
EWY
KOSDAQ
SPY
NASDAQ Composite
SMH
▾
HIGH
Korean indices set up for year-end rally
Korean equities are at a technical decision point: KOSPI is building higher lows while retesting the same high zone and KOSDAQ has moved above its 60-day line, with both indices compressing. Macro is arguably as bad as it gets—10-year Treasury yields near 5%, a sharp oil spike, and global rate-hike risk—so the market is highly sensitive to any positive surprise. If CPI is in line or below expectations and the 2-year Treasury yield stays below 4.6%, event risk should clear and Korean equities can rebound quickly. September and October are seen as preparation for a year-end rally, so high-weight positions can be trimmed but portfolios do not need to be emptied.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ LONG
US equities resilient; exposure likely rebuilt
Despite the worst macro backdrop, the US market fell only about 0.6% and breadth was not disastrous, with roughly 120 S&P 500 constituents rising. The selloff in technology and semiconductor names that had led weekly returns looks like profit-taking and deliberate exposure reduction ahead of CPI, FOMC, and BOJ events rather than a fundamental deterioration. Once those events are checked, investors are likely to rebuild the exposure they cut, supporting US equities.
SPY LONG
NASDAQ Composite LONG
SOX triangle favors upside breakout
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is forming a triangle with higher lows and lower highs, compressing energy for a directional breakout. Although the direction is not guaranteed, the speaker assigns a higher probability to an upside breakout because macro headwinds are already severe, upcoming events can become positive catalysts, and the AI capex fundamental backdrop is unchanged.
SMH LONG
AI infrastructure remains the main opportunity. US growth is driven by AI investment, and Microsoft is nearly tripling data-center/AI capex because supply bottlenecks are severe and customers are willing to pay. That spending should benefit HBM makers and the broader AI infrastructure value chain, and these are among the areas that can earn returns above the elevated cost of capital.
AIQ LONG
AI value chain LONG
Micron earnings likely strong on AI
Micron reports on September 30 and earnings should be strong, reflecting AI memory/HBM demand and the ongoing AI infrastructure upcycle. Even though the stock reaction will depend on the market environment, the report is a positive catalyst for the memory/AI supply chain.
MU LONG
HIGH
00:26
Sep 12
Sep 12
All-In Podcast
23h
NKE 1ST
ONON 1ST
AMZN
NEBIUS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nike destroyed brand with woke marketing
Nike's collapse is a case of go woke, go broke: it abandoned its core mastery/excellence brand positioning, replaced great athletes with political/woke marketing, alienated retail partners, and lost share. The stock has fallen about 80% from peak and was removed from the S&P 100.
NKE AVOID
On gains share from Nike
On is taking share from Nike because it aligns with mastery/excellence through Roger Federer, has superior running product, and is winning retail presence; Chamath personally switched to On after Nike shoes caused knee problems and its store replaced Nike at Stanford.
ONON LONG
Sovereign AI benefits AWS, Nebius
Enterprises with sensitive IP cannot trust standard frontier-model APIs because zero-data-retention is ineffective and data leaks into model training, so they must deploy sovereign/private AI on their own hardware/VPC. This benefits vendors that stand up dedicated AI infrastructure such as AWS/Amazon and Nebius.
AMZN LONG
NEBIUS LONG
HIGH
00:14
Sep 12
Sep 12
TBPN
23h
US 30-year Treasuries
AI-SECTOR
▾
MED
Short long bonds, long AI buildout.
John Coogan discusses Paul Christiano's positioning: he is personally short US 30-year debt and 2x levered long, with 90% of net worth in AI bets. Coogan interprets this as a bet that pays off in the good AI ending: AI delivers value, AI bets and the market perform well, and capital shifts from US government debt to data centers and AI buildout debt. It is not a doom bet, but a pro-AI buildout trade.
US 30-year Treasuries SHORT
AI-SECTOR LONG
MED
00:01
Sep 12
Sep 12
AAPL
▾
MED
Apple can profit from local AI.
Jason is bullish on Apple's opportunity in on-device/local AI: if Siri becomes an open-source LLM and AI on the phone runs on local models, users could query photos and run agents securely on hardware, with encrypted cloud fallback. He expects this to drive demand for high-RAM Apple hardware like the Mac Studio and MacBook Pro and says that's where Apple can make a lot of money.
AAPL LONG
MED
23:41
Sep 11
Sep 11
CNBC
1d
ADBE
VRT
CSCO
MRVL
ORCL FLIP
▾
HIGH
Adobe is a short-squeeze candidate.
Adobe's positive growth and conservative forecast show a beaten-down enterprise software name can live to play again; Cramer expected the stock to finish up and called it a short-squeeze candidate.
ADBE LONG
Data-center suppliers and hyperscalers can rebound.
Cramer says positive Oracle and Adobe statements show data-center-focused enterprise hardware and software vendors plus hyperscalers can live to play again and benefit from hyperscaler capex; he names Vertiv, Cisco, Marvell, GE Vernova, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
VRT LONG
CSCO LONG
MRVL LONG
GEV LONG
AMZN LONG
HPE LONG
GOOG LONG
MSFT LONG
Oracle is constructive, room to recover.
Oracle's quarter was encouraging: cloud revenue rose 62%, OCI rose 121%, RPO reached $664B, it delivered 850 megawatts and more than 300k GPUs, the $20B ATM is finished, customer prepayments reduce net capex, and the stock trades at a low multiple. Cramer became more constructive and sees room to recover, though he might stay sidelined until after the election due political risk and still-worrisome free-cash-flow burn and OpenAI concentration.
ORCL LONG
Apple has more upside on foldable demand.
Apple's new foldable iPhone demand could be off the charts, and after a strong post-product-introduction run, Cramer thinks the stock still has more upside.
AAPL LONG
Oil may be peaking unless conflict escalates.
Cramer thought oil fell on hopes that Gulf-Iran talks can produce a deal and allow crude to plummet; he sees oil peaking unless Iran attacks a carrier group or Houthi allies block the Red Sea, which would spike oil.
WTI SHORT
Long-end Treasury yields may fall.
If the Fed hikes short rates, bond traders may reward the discipline by pushing long-end yields lower; Cramer thinks rates on the 30-year/long end of the Treasury will go down, not up.
30-year Treasury bonds LONG
Raise cash for possible 2018-style pullback.
Cramer sees eerie 2018-like risks from Fed tightening, high oil/inflation, and midterms, so he has trimmed winners and raised cash to mid-teens in the Charitable Trust, urges investors to get off margin, and wants cash ready to buy high-quality stocks on weakness; he does not say to sell everything.
SPY WATCH
CASH LONG
Brinker analyst meeting should impress.
Brinker, the parent of Chili's, never fails to wow Cramer, and he expects the upcoming analyst meeting to be no exception.
EAT LONG
Salesforce AI product improves sales recognition.
Cramer owns Salesforce for the Charitable Trust and thinks its Agentforce AI platform can interrogate data to improve sales; he says investors are finally recognizing the product and AI-disruption fear is overdone.
CRM LONG
Lennar needs lower rates to improve.
Cramer calls Lennar a great builder, but high Treasury yields and mortgage rates plus locked-in homeowners have crushed affordability and existing home sales are at a four-decade low; the stock needs rate relief or first-time homebuyer relief to improve.
LEN WATCH
Intuit can rebound after investor day.
Intuit is getting a bum rap from AI-disruption fears; Cramer thinks those fears are overdone and the coming investor day could produce a rebound like ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Adobe.
INTU LONG
Boeing rises if oil peaks.
Boeing is ready to go up because Cramer thinks oil may be peaking; the market incorrectly trades Boeing inverse to crude, since airlines need more fuel-efficient planes, so lower oil should help.
BA LONG
Meta could double long-term.
Cramer takes a three-to-five-year view and thinks Meta could double: it trades at a low multiple, lawsuits are largely behind it, management is strong, and it has AI, small-business, and personal-assistant opportunities.
META LONG
Buy AMD and Dell, two best stocks.
Cramer admitted on the club call that restrictions kept him from buying AMD and Dell, which he calls the two best stocks in this market; he says AMD is a fantastic stock and company with great CEO Lisa Su and says buy it. End of story.
DELL LONG
AMD LONG
Buy McDonald's at current low level.
Cramer wants to buy McDonald's at its low level: the stock is down on beef costs, but management is trying to reinvent the business, is well-capitalized, and is less risky than at $300.
MCD LONG
DraftKings is too crowded; move on.
DraftKings and the online gambling group are too crowded and stretched; customer acquisition costs are rising, so even with a good CEO it is time to move on.
DKNG AVOID
Jersey Mike's is better than McDonald's.
Jersey Mike's is better than McDonald's and has less risk, with terrific management under Charlie Morrison and the ability to open thousands of locations.
Jersey Mike's LONG
Buy some 10-year Treasuries at 5%.
With the 10-year Treasury yielding about 5%, Cramer thinks it is okay to allocate some money to bonds depending on age, while keeping exposure to common stocks because bonds alone will not compound enough.
TLT LONG
Nuclear power is a three-to-five-year theme.
Cramer is bullish on nuclear power adoption but says it is a three-to-five-year issue before real earnings and growth; he thinks Cameco is for real and likes BWXT a little more.
BWXT LONG
CCJ LONG
Sphere is amazing despite management doubts.
Cramer thinks Sphere is amazing and that criticism of the Dolan management is overdone.
Sphere LONG
Avoid Honeywell Aerospace after credibility issues.
Cramer cannot recommend Honeywell Aerospace because its CEO repeatedly told Phil LeBeau things were going well when they were not, hurting credibility.
Honeywell Aerospace AVOID
QXO feels wrong despite Brad Jacobs.
QXO feels very wrong to Cramer and is like Home Depot without the yield; Brad Jacobs has a winning record, but Cramer calls the stock a loser and does not want to bet against him.
QXO AVOID
HIGH
23:30
Sep 11
Sep 11
EUR/JPY
USD/JPY
DXY 1ST
EUR/USD
USD/KRW
▾
HIGH
EUR/JPY technical setup is bearish.
The U.S. Treasury sold euros and bought yen during recent intervention, and EUR/JPY has dropped. Technically, EUR/JPY looks bearish after failing to break higher, so it could fall further if key support gives way, although support makes the timing uncertain.
EUR/JPY SHORT
Dollar-yen reversal points to yen strength.
The dollar-yen pair is at a historic inflection after a long period of yen weakness. Japan and the U.S. do not want yen weakness beyond 160, and the U.S. is helping because Japanese intervention funded by selling U.S. Treasuries would push U.S. yields higher. Bessent has warned speculators against betting on further yen weakness. If the cycle reverses, dollar-yen should fall toward at least 140, with potential for a much larger multi-year move.
USD/JPY SHORT
Broad U.S. dollar weakness is likely.
The dollar index is at a critical long-term average and trend point after the Fed and BOJ meetings. The speaker expects broad dollar weakness, which would mean strength in the Korean won, Japanese yen, euro, and Chinese yuan, as the U.S. also wants lower long-term yields and tolerates yen strength to avoid Treasury selling pressure.
DXY SHORT
EUR/USD LONG
USD/KRW SHORT
USD/CNH SHORT
Yen strength supports Japanese government bonds.
If yen strengthens, Japan's inflation outlook improves, which lifts Japanese government bond prices and lowers JGB yields. This would reverse the prior vicious cycle where yen weakness hurt inflation expectations, pressured JGB prices, raised yields, and fed fiscal credibility concerns. The virtuous cycle can pull dollar-yen and JGB yields lower together.
JGBUX LONG
Long-term Treasuries remain under pressure.
Bessent's Treasury buyback expansion has not convinced the market; long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with 10-year and 30-year yields under upward pressure. The market is skeptical of fiscal expansion and tariffs, so long-duration Treasuries remain vulnerable.
TLT AVOID
Bessent measures favor U.S. equities.
Bessent's policy measures are aimed at supporting the stock market. Although bond and FX markets may suffer, U.S. equities could welcome these actions because they are designed to prop up share prices.
SPY LONG
HIGH
23:18
Sep 11
Sep 11
WTI
ITA
▾
HIGH
Middle East chokepoint disruptions threaten oil supply
Disruptions to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, and the Houthis' growing ability to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are significant oil-supply risks. Iran also retains substantial leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, though that leverage may fade as countries and companies build resilience. Weaker regional powers can use chokepoint disruption to gain leverage, keeping Middle East oil-supply risk elevated.
WTI WATCH
Defense industrial base demand supported by funding
The Pentagon has acquisition reform and contracts in place and has created long-term demand signals, but needs Congress to approve the $1.5 trillion budget request to rebuild the defense industrial base. It has secured seven-year munitions deals, incentivized $25 billion of industry investment, and is ramping Patriot production capacity and other critical munitions, which supports defense industrial base demand.
ITA LONG
HIGH
23:18
Sep 11
Sep 11
CNBC
1d
High-quality stocks
CASH
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Buy quality stocks on weakness.
If you are not panicking and hold a nice cash position, Cramer says use any market weakness to buy the high-quality stocks you trimmed because you were worried about the market, not because of company-specific problems.
High-quality stocks LONG
Raise cash by trimming winners.
If investors are worried about a repeat of 2018, Cramer advises trimming winners and taking something off the table; he has been doing that in the charitable trust, raising its cash position to the mid-teens, much higher than usual, to have dry powder for market weakness.
CASH LONG
Stay invested; pullbacks usually recover.
Cramer argues investors should not sell everything because staying the course and remaining in the market usually pays off; after the steep Q4 2018 selloff, Powell's rate cuts helped fuel a nearly 30% rally in 2019 that recovered the September 2018 highs by late October 2019. He sees eerie similarities to fall 2018 but does not think history will repeat.
SPY LONG
HIGH
23:07
Sep 11
Sep 11
TLT FLIP
WTI
GLD 1ST
SILVER 1ST
ORCL
▾
MED
Short long-dated Treasuries if Fed skips.
If the Fed does not hike next week despite roughly 90% market pricing, long-dated Treasuries are vulnerable and 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields could make new cycle highs; this is his main fear and he sees trades for those expecting no hike.
TLT SHORT
Buy oil as sticky inflation hedge.
He sees sticky inflation because oil's upside skew has settled at a higher base and Hormuz is now a core risk; real-money accounts should shed duration risk and seek inflation protection via commodities, specifically oil.
WTI LONG
Gold is best inflation hedge.
Gold and silver are much bigger than crypto; with inflation above target for years, gold is not just a store of value but one of the best hedges, and Kalshi is making it accessible with regulated perpetual futures.
GLD LONG
Silver gains from AI data centers.
Silver has an additional positive story from AI/data-center demand, alongside the inflation-hedge macro case, and Kalshi's perpetuals broaden access to the market.
SILVER LONG
Oracle AI capex worries outweigh demand.
Oracle's fiscal Q1 showed strong AI-driven cloud growth and another $30 billion in bookings, but record $28.5 billion capex and a sharp stock reversal show investors are worried about the economics of the AI buildout.
ORCL AVOID
Adobe faces little AI disruption now.
Adobe's clean Q3 beat on top and bottom lines, midpoint revenue guidance, and analyst view that AI tools are not disrupting software yet reduce the key AI-disruption worry, even with a new CEO coming in December.
ADBE LONG
Microsoft triples AI data-center capacity.
Microsoft plans to more than triple data-center capacity to support 38GW by 2032, up from 12GW today, to address a persistent capacity constraint after outages and a prior pullback; the massive buildout is a monitorable AI-infrastructure signal.
MSFT WATCH
Peak AI capex favors equal-weight over semis.
AI capex growth is peaking because the base is huge; growth may run 30% next year then turn negative by 2029, pressuring semiconductor profit estimates. Like after the dotcom bust, the next leg should favor equal-weight stocks and AI adopters rather than the semis.
RSP LONG
SMH AVOID
MED
23:04
Sep 11
Sep 11
Thread Guy
1d
DECK 1ST
NKE
▾
HIGH
Nike losing; Hoka gaining younger generations
Nike is structurally losing because it became bloated, lacked frontline connection to younger generations, and failed to think long-term, allowing Hoka and newer shoe brands to take share. Nick says Hoka is winning through strong marketing and brand awareness across generations, and Nike’s stock is tanking as the market realizes it may not own the future consumer generation.
DECK LONG
NKE AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Sep 11
Sep 11
UGA 1ST
DIESEL 1ST
UHN 1ST
WTI 1ST
UK electricity transmission
▾
HIGH
Refining bottleneck tightens petroleum products
The main bottleneck is refining, not just crude, because consumers need gasoline, diesel and heating oil; refining disruptions in Asia Pacific and Russia are making petroleum product markets tighter than crude.
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
UHN LONG
Hormuz risk keeps oil supported
The Strait of Hormuz disruption affects about 20% of global oil supply and is a major risk, while Venezuela cannot quickly offset it because restoring production requires years of investment and institutional trust, leaving oil supply risk elevated.
WTI LONG
UK needs transmission, not generation
The UK's core problem is transmission, not generation: Scotland has about 14 GW of wind but only 10% of national demand, and grid constraints cause curtailment and high balancing costs; more transmission and grid investment is needed to move power to demand.
UK electricity transmission LONG
European solar growth has no limit
European solar has grown exponentially because technology costs fell dramatically, and while grid and storage must catch up, investment appetite is strong; if infrastructure constraints are solved, there is no obvious limit to long-term solar growth in Europe.
European solar power LONG
Solar gluts hurt standalone generators
Rapid solar additions create midday supply gluts, price cannibalization and negative wholesale power prices, so standalone solar generators can earn less than underwritten; the problem may be transitionary but currently punishes unhedged solar.
European standalone solar generation AVOID
European battery storage set to accelerate
Battery storage in Europe is established and accelerating from a low base; Europe installed about 36 GWh in 2025 and could exceed 500 GWh by 2030, with storage shifting power to meet demand and helping address negative prices and grid constraints.
Battery energy storage LONG
Apex productizes satellite buses for defense
Apex builds standardized satellite buses for rapid, productized manufacturing like the Model T, aiming to meet an inflection in demand from reusable launch and government constellations; its business plan does not depend on Golden Dome.
Apex Space LONG
Grid is Europe's renewable bottleneck
The limiting factor for European solar growth is no longer investment appetite but building the grid and supporting infrastructure to move and use power efficiently; solving the grid bottleneck unlocks decades of growth.
European grid infrastructure LONG
UK data centers need more capacity
The UK needs more data center capacity to serve its economy and public sector, with vacancy rates at historic lows and AI increasing demand; siting data centers near Scottish renewables can absorb curtailed wind and reduce system costs.
UK data centers LONG
Data centers lift curtailed Scottish wind
The UK and Scotland have abundant renewable energy but pay wind assets to turn off because of curtailment; building data centers that can take that offtake makes economic sense, improves energy security and reduces curtailment costs.
Scottish wind power LONG
Defense tech startups are investable now
There has been a sea change in Silicon Valley toward companies supporting the national interest, aerospace and defense, hardware and government; procurement reform and downstream capital now let new entrants scale and challenge legacy primes.
Defense technology LONG
Legacy primes remain defense winners
Legacy primes such as General Dynamics, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin know how to build at scale, at volume and with sophisticated testing; they will not be displaced by startups but will form a marriage of convenience with new entrants.
RTX LONG
GD LONG
LMT LONG
Castelion builds cheaper hypersonic weapons
Castelion is building hypersonic weapons, a purely defense product, and is critical for the Department of War while making missiles cheaper than traditional primes; the department will buy if it works and is cheaper.
Castelion LONG
More dangerous world means more defense
Space is the new warfighting domain; government demand for satellite buses, space-based interceptors and Golden Dome is pulling companies like Apex, and space defense investment has risen across administrations because space is the ultimate high ground.
ITA LONG
AI and defense share infrastructure bottlenecks
The AI ecosystem and the Department of War share the same bottlenecks in chips, hardware and energy; companies building critical infrastructure, especially energy resilience for data centers and defense systems, can sell to both hyperscalers and the government.
AI/defense critical infrastructure LONG
HIGH
23:00
Sep 11
Sep 11
22:48
Sep 11
Sep 11
AIQ
BITO
BGC
STABLECOINS
WTI
▾
HIGH
AI infrastructure cycle still early, trillions coming.
The AI infrastructure investment cycle is still early. Estimated CapEx and related debt financing needs are in the trillions of dollars and will be real and big. Cantor Fitzgerald is expanding its capital markets business and global footprint to be ready for that opportunity.
AIQ LONG
Crypto long-term believers, real-world use cases.
Despite crypto market ebbs and flows, they remain long-term believers because digital assets have real-world value use cases: stablecoins for cross-border payments and tokenization for 24/7 stock trading. The market will gravitate to the best technologies.
BITO LONG
STABLECOINS LONG
BGC prediction market and revenue growth.
Prediction markets are an exciting emerging area. BGC has announced a deal with Fanatics to launch a prediction market, has doubled revenue every year since 2022, and is the number one interdealer broker by revenue, supporting the growth outlook.
BGC LONG
Oil supply risk elevated, watch chokepoints.
Oil supply risk is elevated: the Saudi East-West pipeline has been shut after a pumping station hit, and multiple regional chokepoints (Red Sea, Hormuz) leave about 12 vulnerable points. While a full closure is not the high-probability outcome, the supply side looks worse than before and warrants monitoring.
WTI WATCH
West Coast diesel, gasoline supply structurally tight.
U.S. refined product markets face structural disconnects. The East and West Coasts are large importers while the Gulf Coast and Alaska export heavily; the Jones Act and lack of pipelines keep West Coast diesel and gasoline supply tight, and that cannot be solved quickly.
DIESEL LONG
UGA LONG
Sticky inflation pushes rates higher.
Inflation is sticky in the U.S. and globally, exacerbated by energy supply issues and the Iran war. This should push rates higher, with the 10-year yield near 5%, curve steepening, and the Fed needing to be ahead rather than behind.
TLT SHORT
NYC office resilient; SL Green benefits.
New York City and Manhattan real estate have proven highly resilient and are undergoing broad-based revitalization. SL Green's One Vanderbilt demonstrated that transit-oriented office can command the highest value in the U.S. and catalyzed the East Side rezoning, supporting demand for well-located office assets.
SLG LONG
Manhattan office real estate LONG
Private credit poses new systemic risk.
Post-crisis bank regulation pushed lending into private credit markets, which reduced some bank risk but has created a new potential systemic problem for markets.
BIZD AVOID
HIGH
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