Ed Morse

Ed Morse stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for six weeks, it would disrupt 10 million barrels per day of supply, and prices will go higher, potentially requiring demand destruction. Closure of the Strait blocks a major chokepoint for global oil exports, creating a physical shortage that must be met by drawing inventories or reducing demand, pushing prices upward. LONG oil because the geopolitical situation suggests sustained supply disruption, and negotiations are uncertain with risks of escalation. A swift diplomatic resolution that reopens the Strait and restores flows quickly.

"Depending on the likely scenario prices could rise another 50% or even higher before leveling off... I put it more serious than anything we've seen since the 70's." With 20 million barrels a day trapped by the Strait of Hormuz closure and regional infrastructure actively being bombed, global oil supply is structurally impaired. US domestic producers and broad energy equities will capture massive margin expansion from sustained triple-digit crude. LONG. The broader equity market is currently pricing this as a short-term disruption, but experts warn it will last months, meaning energy equities are severely underpricing the duration of their upcoming cash flow windfall. A coordinated, massive G7 strategic petroleum reserve release or an unexpected diplomatic resolution could rapidly deflate the geopolitical premium in oil.

"Depending on the likely scenario prices could rise another 50% or even higher before leveling off... I put it more serious than anything we've seen since the 70's." With 20 million barrels a day trapped by the Strait of Hormuz closure and regional infrastructure actively being bombed, global oil supply is structurally impaired. US domestic producers and broad energy equities will capture massive margin expansion from sustained triple-digit crude. LONG. The broader equity market is currently pricing this as a short-term disruption, but experts warn it will last months, meaning energy equities are severely underpricing the duration of their upcoming cash flow windfall. A coordinated, massive G7 strategic petroleum reserve release or an unexpected diplomatic resolution could rapidly deflate the geopolitical premium in oil.

"Depending on the likely scenario prices could rise another 50% or even higher before leveling off... I put it more serious than anything we've seen since the 70's." With 20 million barrels a day trapped by the Strait of Hormuz closure and regional infrastructure actively being bombed, global oil supply is structurally impaired. US domestic producers and broad energy equities will capture massive margin expansion from sustained triple-digit crude. LONG. The broader equity market is currently pricing this as a short-term disruption, but experts warn it will last months, meaning energy equities are severely underpricing the duration of their upcoming cash flow windfall. A coordinated, massive G7 strategic petroleum reserve release or an unexpected diplomatic resolution could rapidly deflate the geopolitical premium in oil.