Name: What's Happening in the Korean Stock Market Right Now | Analyst Vincent, Hana Securities [Weekend Interview]
Uploaded: 2026-09-12T02:00:05+00:00
Duration: 2527 s

Speakers

Vincent — Analyst, Hana Securities

Summary

Vincent, an analyst at Hana Securities, reviews the Korean stock market, arguing KOSPI is historically cheap but constrained by heavy overhead supply and macro risks. He favors SK hynix within memory on its HBM moat, buyback cancellation, and potential LTA-driven de-cyclicalization, while expecting the ADR-local premium to converge through local shares. He also highlights strong AI semiconductor demand, Physical AI as a longer-term theme, and macro catalysts including the US 10-year yield near 5%, the BOJ, and US-China Treasury talks.

Korean equities are historically cheap but face heavy overhead supply and macro uncertainty.
Vincent prefers SK hynix over Samsung Electronics because of its HBM moat.
SK hynix buyback cancellation and five-year LTAs could support re-rating.
The SK hynix ADR premium is expected to narrow, preferably through local share gains.
AI semiconductor demand remains strong, with TSMC and OpenAI usage cited as evidence.
Physical AI is framed as a future re-rating catalyst once commercialized.
Key macro events include US CPI, FOMC, BOJ policy, and the US-China financial meeting.
Corporate buybacks are expected to support KOSPI until mid-October.

Ideas

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 1:56

Watch 5% US 10-year yield.

The US 10-year Treasury yield near 5% is a key threshold under Taylor-rule estimates and relative to S&P 500 valuations. He thinks 5% may be touched, which could cause a risk-asset dip, but that dip could become an upside factor if yields stabilize and the Fed tightening path remains limited.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 4:24

Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.

There is heavy trapped supply between the current KOSPI level and its prior high, about KRW 91.6tn, with roughly KRW 30tn in Samsung Electronics and KRW 35tn in SK hynix. This overhead supply makes rallies prone to selling and likely caps near-term upside until it is absorbed.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 4:24

Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.

Memory cycles have historically been about three years, but Samsung and SK hynix argue that long-term agreements now extend to five years. In the next downturn, if LTAs are honored despite lower spot prices, memory companies can be re-rated from cyclical names into cash cows; HBM LTA reassessment may become visible by next summer, benefiting SK hynix.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 4:24

Overhead supply caps near-term rallies.

KOSPI is historically cheap on forward valuation, and earnings have risen while the index has fallen, creating an unusual divergence. Since long-term stock prices follow earnings, he expects convergence through some earnings slowdown and a higher KOSPI, making the macro-driven weakness an opportunity.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 14:44

AI semiconductor demand remains strong.

AI semiconductor demand remains strong, evidenced by OpenAI Astra usage limits, TSMC's record sales and capacity constraints, Microsoft's planned data-center compute expansion, and Meta's new model. He does not see an AI bubble yet; power and GPU supply are the bottlenecks, and more Astra-like applications could sustain momentum.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 20:08

Physical AI is next re-rating catalyst.

AI has moved from learning to inference and toward AGI, but the ultimate endpoint is physical AI. When AI-embedded mobility or autonomous vehicles become visibly commercialized, the market can re-rate the physical AI theme.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 20:52

Local SK hynix shares should converge up.

The SK hynix ADR has traded at a large premium to local shares, and he expects that premium to converge. He prefers convergence through the local shares rising while the ADR follows or lags, because US market internals are weakening while Korean internals are improving.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 32:06

BOJ hike strengthens yen.

The BOJ is likely to raise rates, and a hike strengthens the yen, which acts as a safety valve and creates downward pressure on US Treasury yields. If the BOJ surprises with a faster pace than 25bp, yen strength and carry-trade unwind risk could accelerate.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 37:43

TSMC capacity lags AI demand.

TSMC reported very strong results, with four consecutive months of record monthly revenue and capacity expansion still unable to keep up with AI orders. This is a company-specific signal that AI semiconductor demand remains robust.

Vincent Analyst, Hana Securities 41:34

China may pause Treasury selling.

At the upcoming US-China meeting, the two sides have opposite financial needs: the US needs long-term funds, while China has excess savings but has been selling Treasuries. He sees a possibility of a financial-side agreement, specifically China temporarily pausing Treasury sales, which would support US Treasuries.

What's Happening in the Korean Stock Market Right Now | Analyst Vincent, Hana Securities

Summary

Ideas

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