Is Now the Time to Exit the Korean Stock Market? A Rebound Signal Appeared Despite Macro Headwinds, or Is Now the Opportunity Ahead of the FOMC? CEO Lee Joo-yeon

Summary

Lee Joo-yeon, CEO of M Investment, argues that Korean and US equities are absorbing a worst-case macro backdrop and are now more sensitive to positive surprises than negative ones. He sees KOSPI and KOSDAQ compressing ahead of a potential year-end rally, with CPI, FOMC, and BOJ events likely to create volatility but not necessarily derail the uptrend. He also highlights AI infrastructure and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as key upside areas, while using the 2-year Treasury yield as a threshold for whether rate-hike risk is contained.

• Korean equities are at technical decision points; KOSPI and KOSDAQ are compressing with an upside bias.
• Macro conditions are severe, but markets have built tolerance and may rebound quickly on good news.
• US equities held up despite macro stress, and event-driven exposure cuts may be reversed.
• AI infrastructure remains the main opportunity, supported by Microsoft's AI capex plans.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is forming a triangle; the speaker favors an upside breakout.
• Micron's upcoming earnings are expected to be strong on AI memory demand.
• The 2-year Treasury yield around 4.6% is a key gauge for additional Fed hike risk.
• Oil stabilization and CPI/FOMC outcomes are key macro swing factors.