Iran Nuclear Blind Spot Deepens as IAEA Loses Access

Summary

Former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz tells Bloomberg that the IAEA's loss of access to Iran has created a serious monitoring gap, with uncertainty over the status of Iran's nuclear program and construction at Pickaxe Mountain. He also warns that tight global refined-product supplies, especially diesel and jet fuel, could face further pressure as US refineries running near capacity approach fall maintenance. He notes crude oil disruptions from the Gulf and Red Sea have been partly offset, while the refined-product shortage is more acute.

• IAEA access to Iran's nuclear program has been shut down, eroding continuity of knowledge.
• Pickaxe Mountain shows construction activity and is a hard target, raising concerns about covert nuclear work.
• Moniz says 60% enriched uranium is already directly usable in a nuclear bomb, and 2025 strikes may not have eliminated it.
• Crude oil availability faces disruptions from Houthi/Iranian activity around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, but has been partly offset.
• Global diesel and jet fuel supplies are very tight due to refinery outages in the Gulf, hits to Russian refineries, and lower Chinese exports.
• US refineries have been running near 98% capacity, but fall maintenance turnarounds could cut output and add price pressure.
• Moniz says policy options include coordinating with refinery owners to extend maintenance or expand capacity, though new refineries are not practical soon.