Ideas
Oil higher while war persists.
Chase has been long crude oil through the war and expects WTI to keep moving higher as long as the conflict continues. The Houthis control Bab el-Mandeb and Iran can influence the Strait of Hormuz; SPR releases and China's pullback capped the move earlier, but Chinese buying is returning and two strategic choke points are now at risk. He sees the trade as binary: war on, oil higher; war off, oil much lower.
May 2027 oil futures mispriced low.
Chase has migrated from December WTI into May 2027 WTI futures because the far-dated contracts are much lower and have less downside if the war ends; if the conflict lasts a few more months, May and other far-dated contracts in the 70s are mispriced relative to the ongoing supply disruption.
OILK benefits from crude backwardation.
For investors who want crude exposure without K-1 tax headaches, Chase likes OILK because the extreme backwardation allows the ETF to monetize roll yield. It pays monthly dividends, the last was around a 30% annualized rate, total return has been over 50% year-to-date, and it has beaten semiconductors.
Front-end Treasuries attractive as hikes overpriced.
Despite being an inflationist, Chase thinks the front end has become attractive because the market has caught up and now prices roughly three to four hikes. He doubts the Fed will hike five or more times, and if growth or consumption cracks, the Fed may pivot; he likes the two-year Treasury from the long side.
Fixed income no longer core allocation.
Chase argues fixed income is no longer a core asset class because global savings have peaked, the world is becoming more multipolar, and countries will want capital back for defense and domestic needs. That keeps cost of capital higher, so investors should not have 40% or even 10% in fixed income; it is now a tactical trading sardine.
S&P breadth deterioration warrants watching.
Patrick notes the S&P 500 chart looks technically healthy, but market breadth has collapsed: the share of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average halved, and industrials, defense contractors, and rate-sensitive names broke down. If the index is going to 8,000, it is unclear where leadership will come from, so the breadth deterioration is a key setup to watch.
Mag 7 face cost-of-capital drag.
Chase is cautious on the Magnificent Seven because higher cost of capital and interest expenses will start hitting earnings, while capex is spread out and flatters current earnings. He does not think Mag 7 will save the market as long as the war and high rates persist, though he is not calling for a large decline.
Tactical AI longs with tight stops.
Chase is open to tactical long AI and semiconductor trades because earnings and outlooks remain strong and valuations are not extreme, and if the war ends and rates pull back, investors may rotate back into the group. However, technological revolutions eventually overbuild, so he would use calls or outright longs with tight stops to define risk, citing SMH and DRAM/memory as having become overlevered before correcting.
Cheap semiconductor optionality offers tactical upside.
Patrick highlights that semiconductor implied volatility has collapsed, with Nvidia options near one-year lows. That makes optionality cheap for expressing tactical upside in semiconductors without overpaying, especially if the group has another leg higher.
Apple showing accumulation and leadership.
Patrick points out Apple has broken higher, closed a gap, and is being accumulated with visible flows, providing leadership when the market needs it. He says it is one to watch for continued relative strength.
Gold bullish medium and long term.
Chase is a medium- and long-term gold bull. If the war ends, gold could rip; if the Treasury or Fed uses TGA spending, QE, or other gimmicks to suppress yields, gold should also rip. If the war continues, a new low is possible, but he still loves being involved over the medium and long term.
Copper crowded, caution warranted.
Chase likes copper but warns that bullish positioning is extremely crowded, with speculators piling into longs while gross shorts are flat. A break of the trendline and 50-day moving average could trigger an obvious exit, and tariff speculation adds unwanted uncertainty; copper often disappoints when everyone loves it.
Natural gas downside persists on oversupply.
Chase holds December 2026 natural gas puts and still sees downside. A combination of warm shoulder-season weather and rising associated gas production has left North America with too much gas that is hard to move, and he thinks the December contract can fall to around $3 unless a cold shot hits.
Tropical agricultural commodities offer asymmetric upside.
Chase likes a broad agricultural commodities basket but prefers tropical softs because they are not grown everywhere and are more exposed to localized weather and fertilizer problems. He specifically favors a combo of rice, sugar, cocoa, and coffee, with coffee potentially coming back after weakness.
KROP base offers tight-stop upside.
Chase likes KROP, an agtech ETF, because it formed a beaten-up, long sideways base and has a tight-stop setup. It has tailwinds from China's ag innovation push and precision agriculture demand, and could run if the broader agriculture space is still early- or mid-cycle.
This The Market Huddle video, published September 12, 2026,
features Chase Taylor, Patrick Ceresna
discussing WTI, May 2027 WTI crude oil futures, CL, OILK, 2-year Treasury note, TLT, SPY, MAGS, SMH, NVDA, AAPL, GLD, COPPER, UNG, DBA, Rice, CANE, COCOA, KC, KROP.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chase Taylor,
Patrick Ceresna
· Tickers:
WTI,
May 2027 WTI crude oil futures,
CL,
OILK,
2-year Treasury note,
TLT,
SPY,
MAGS,
SMH,
NVDA,
AAPL,
GLD,
COPPER,
UNG,
DBA,
Rice,
CANE,
COCOA,
KC,
KROP
