Core CPI Hikes Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 11, 2026 at 23:07  |  49:10  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ira Jersey — Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist
Frank Monkam — Guest
Udesh Jha — Chief Risk Officer, Kalshi
Tatiana Darya — Bloomberg News senior equities reporter
Kevin Hassett — Director, White House National Economic Council
Randall Williams — Sports Business Reporter, Bloomberg
Charlie Pellett — Anchor/Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

The program covered a hotter-than-expected CPI print and the near-certain Fed rate hike at the September FOMC, with strategists debating Treasury vulnerability and oil-driven inflation risks. It also featured Kalshi's launch of regulated gold and silver perpetual futures and plans for single-stock perps, plus a preview of the NFL season's international and streaming ambitions. Stock movers focused on Oracle's AI capex concerns, Microsoft's data-center expansion, Adobe's clean quarter, and the next leg of the AI trade.

  • August CPI came in above expectations, reinforcing expectations for a Fed hike.
  • Ira Jersey warned long-dated Treasuries could sell off if the Fed does not hike.
  • Frank Monkam favored oil as an inflation hedge and flagged sticky inflation risks.
  • Kalshi launched regulated gold and silver perpetuals and is pursuing single-stock perps.
  • Randall Williams discussed NFL international expansion, streaming, and private-equity interest.
  • Oracle fell on capex worries, Microsoft plans a massive data-center expansion, and Adobe rose on clean results.
  • Tatiana Darie said peak AI capex growth may shift leadership to equal-weight stocks and away from semiconductors.
Ideas
Ira Jersey Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist 8:37
Short long-dated Treasuries if Fed skips.
If the Fed does not hike next week despite roughly 90% market pricing, long-dated Treasuries are vulnerable and 10-, 20-, and 30-year yields could make new cycle highs; this is his main fear and he sees trades for those expecting no hike.
TLT MED
Frank Monkam Guest 16:04
Buy oil as sticky inflation hedge.
He sees sticky inflation because oil's upside skew has settled at a higher base and Hormuz is now a core risk; real-money accounts should shed duration risk and seek inflation protection via commodities, specifically oil.
WTI MED
Udesh Jha Chief Risk Officer, Kalshi 22:54
Gold is best inflation hedge.
Gold and silver are much bigger than crypto; with inflation above target for years, gold is not just a store of value but one of the best hedges, and Kalshi is making it accessible with regulated perpetual futures.
GLD MED
Udesh Jha Chief Risk Officer, Kalshi 23:02
Silver gains from AI data centers.
Silver has an additional positive story from AI/data-center demand, alongside the inflation-hedge macro case, and Kalshi's perpetuals broaden access to the market.
SILVER LOW
Tatiana Darya Bloomberg News senior equities reporter 44:31
Oracle AI capex worries outweigh demand.
Oracle's fiscal Q1 showed strong AI-driven cloud growth and another $30 billion in bookings, but record $28.5 billion capex and a sharp stock reversal show investors are worried about the economics of the AI buildout.
ORCL MED
Tatiana Darya Bloomberg News senior equities reporter 45:37
Microsoft triples AI data-center capacity.
Microsoft plans to more than triple data-center capacity to support 38GW by 2032, up from 12GW today, to address a persistent capacity constraint after outages and a prior pullback; the massive buildout is a monitorable AI-infrastructure signal.
MSFT LOW
Tatiana Darya Bloomberg News senior equities reporter 46:47
Adobe faces little AI disruption now.
Adobe's clean Q3 beat on top and bottom lines, midpoint revenue guidance, and analyst view that AI tools are not disrupting software yet reduce the key AI-disruption worry, even with a new CEO coming in December.
ADBE MED
Tatiana Darya Bloomberg News senior equities reporter 48:03
Peak AI capex favors equal-weight over semis.
AI capex growth is peaking because the base is huge; growth may run 30% next year then turn negative by 2029, pressuring semiconductor profit estimates. Like after the dotcom bust, the next leg should favor equal-weight stocks and AI adopters rather than the semis.
RSP MED
Tatiana Darya Bloomberg News senior equities reporter 48:03
Peak AI capex favors equal-weight over semis.
AI capex growth is peaking because the base is huge; growth may run 30% next year then turn negative by 2029, pressuring semiconductor profit estimates. Like after the dotcom bust, the next leg should favor equal-weight stocks and AI adopters rather than the semis.
SMH MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 11, 2026, features Ira Jersey, Frank Monkam, Udesh Jha, Tatiana Darya discussing TLT, WTI, GLD, SILVER, ORCL, MSFT, ADBE, RSP, SMH. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ira Jersey, Frank Monkam, Udesh Jha, Tatiana Darya  · Tickers: TLT, WTI, GLD, SILVER, ORCL, MSFT, ADBE, RSP, SMH