ASML says planned supply won't fully meet 2027-28 demand; Elon Musk calls Micron reasonable on memory prices as tengyanAI flags ceilings in its contract pricing; Escondida workers are set to strike as copper nears $14,700; Gavin Baker argues Blackwells can last over 10 years.
ASML reported Q3 revenue of €11.66B at a 57.5% gross margin and raised the low end of its 2026 sales guidance by €1B, to €44-45B. It said supply as currently planned for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030, and that it is investigating 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase it previously communicated.
Elon Musk said Micron has been reasonable regarding future memory prices while others have been extortionate. tengyanAI says Samsung's realized DRAM price rose about 4x and SK hynix's 2.5-3x over the three quarters to June, while three-quarters of Micron's long-term contract revenue has a pricing framework, most of it with a floor and a ceiling. Samsung said it wants 60-70% of its memory output on multi-year deals.
Per Bloomberg, workers at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile are set to begin a strike after union leaders said wage talks failed to produce an agreement before the midnight deadline. Bloomberg also reports copper rose toward $14,700 a ton as workers at the world's biggest copper mine threatened imminent strike action. China's January-September imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 3.758 million tonnes from 4.018 million a year earlier.
Gavin Baker says a six-year useful life seems conservative and that with disaggregated inference Blackwells will have useful lives over 10 years, because the latest SRAM accelerator can be put in front of a B200 in five years. @bubbleboi called the argument most likely true. In a separate reply, @bubbleboi said current inference jobs are mainly memory bound and never get past 60% chip utilization, so the chips last longer.
Per Unusual Whales, Ryan Cohen bought 700,000 GameStop shares at $24.41 on Oct. 2 after buys on Sept. 10, 21 and 29. A r/Superstonk post says he spent $23 million on 877k more shares, about $100 million in total, and has pledged to go to $500 million.
@wild_randomness bought back some tech risk, mostly semis: SOXL shares overnight and calls in the morning, citing the doom and gloom and some AI bulls capitulating.
Gaetano keeps a $300 target on Credo, but near-term revenue from its Weaver memory-expansion platform depends on Positron's production timeline, now targeted for 2H 2027 with initial OmniConnect revenue in FY2028.
A r/NVDA_Stock post would buy only on a volume-confirmed reclaim of $230 or a flush-and-hold at $220-222, noting unchanged AI data-center demand but a rich valuation.
@thebigberbowski says SK hynix is close to its 200-day moving average and near oversold territory, calling it attractive.
Thomas Hayes says the commodity chip trade within the AI trade, including Micron and SanDisk, is done as Asian producers add capacity; he prefers AI adopters, defensives, small caps, international equities and bonds.
On The Compound, a host says they are not a dip buyer in Citigroup after bank stocks reacted poorly to generally good results, with Citi hit by credit costs and soft fee income.