u/Popular-Jackfruit-60

The author argues NVDA's core long thesis rests on unchanged CapEx and AI-factory demand, with Street targets well above current levels. NVDA finished green on a Fed hike day, which the author frames as relative strength versus the Dow, though higher-for-longer rates and crowded AI positioning cap multiple expansion. The near-term catalyst is a hold above $217 into the open and a reclaim of $220 to confirm a bounce, with $212-213 as first support and $210 as the level that would reopen the downside flush zone. Main stated risks are rate pressure, crowded AI trade, and custom-silicon competition such as Huawei interconnect silicon.

Author argues NBIS is a bullish AI cloud infrastructure trade, citing 454% YoY revenue growth to $582M, a fresh data center infrastructure deal, and momentum above key GEX walls. He expects buyers on pullbacks and sees $300 next if the stock holds above $250. The main stated risk is extreme two-sided volatility, with below $220 flipping the Put Wall into resistance.

The author argues TSMC benefits from all three layers of the AI 'three-layer cake'—advanced compute nodes, CoWoS/SoIC packaging, and COUPE photonics—while competitors benefit from only one, creating customer lock-in and transforming TSMC into the 'AI manufacturing operating system'. CoWoS capacity growth of ~85% YoY in 2026 and 60% in 2027 locks in customers, and Citi-model net income of ~$81B (2026E), ~$108B (2027E) and ~$135B (2028E) implies 25x/19x/15x P/E, which the author calls attractive versus AI peers at a ~$2.05T market cap. Main stated risks are an AI capex slowdown, CPO adoption delays, second-source gains by Intel/Samsung, and geopolitical overhang.