Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
ASML's prior capacity plans will not be enough, Nanya expects virtually no bit shipment growth in early 2027, and Gavin Baker argued Blackwells can last over 10 years.
Themes on this desk
Memory pricing
Elon Musk said Micron has been reasonable on future memory prices while others have been extortionate; tengyanAI says three-quarters of Micron's long-term contract revenue has a pricing framework, mostly with a floor and a ceiling.
AI credit
Zerohedge says hyperscaler CDS just hit all-time wides, after CoreWeave unsecureds tagged a 1,000bp G-spread for the first time.
Google TPUs
BNP Paribas, relayed by @pequityresearch, estimates external TPU sales could generate $80-100 billion of cumulative revenue for Google through 2028.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Nanya expects virtually no DRAM bit shipment growth in early 2027
Nanya said a prolonged structural DRAM shortage is highly likely, with long lead times making it difficult to resolve through 2027 and into early 2028, and expects bit shipments to stay flat for several quarters.
From Nanya Technology’s earnings call: Q: How likely is AI to drive a prolonged structural DRAM shortage? A:
Nanya names whether AI investment keeps generating sufficient returns as the key variable for the long-term supply-demand balance.
Watch Wafer output from Nanya's new fab, expected to begin in 2H27.
Source →Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) expects Agility Robotics to list via Churchill XI in November
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says the SEC declared effective the S-4 for Agility Robotics' merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI, with a shareholder vote around Nov. 2 and closing and AGLT trading expected in November.
$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI If you want an estimate timeline:
@aleabitoreddit calls it the first pure-play US humanoid company to go live, likely less than a month away.
Watch Churchill XI's shareholder vote around Nov. 2.
Source →Gavin Baker argues Blackwells can have useful lives over 10 years
Gavin Baker says six years seems conservative and that with disaggregated inference Blackwells will have useful lives over 10 years, since the latest SRAM accelerator can be put in front of a B200 in five years.
Gavin Baker just made an argument using computer architecture reasoning that i never have thought of and is most likely
@bubbleboi calls it computer architecture reasoning that is most likely true and says it requires updating their mental model.
Watch Whether B200s get paired with newer SRAM accelerators for disaggregated inference.
Source →ASML's prior +30% capacity plans for 2027 and 2028 will not be enough
ASML's prior plan for Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity of +30% in CY27 and +30% in CY28 will not be enough, and customers see their supply falling short of demand at least until 2028. Q4 guidance is €14.2-15.2B revenue at about 57% gross margin.
- The prior capacity plan (Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion +30% in CY27 and +30% in CY28) will not be
ASML started the year with a 51-53% gross margin view and will likely end CY26 at 56%.
Watch ASML capacity additions, especially from 2028.
Source →tengyanAI: Samsung's realized DRAM price rose about 4x, while most of Micron's contract pricing frameworks carry ceilings
Over the three quarters to June, Samsung's realized DRAM price rose about 4x and SK hynix's 2.5-3x, while three-quarters of Micron's long-term contract revenue has a pricing framework, most of it with a floor and a ceiling.
elon didn't name anyone else, but the numbers line up with what he said about micron being "reasonable" and others
tengyanAI says the numbers line up with Elon Musk calling Micron reasonable and others extortionate.
Watch Terms of 2027 contracts: Samsung wants 60-70% of its memory output on multi-year deals, and tengyanAI bets buyers ask for a ceiling.
Source →