Optical TAM upgrades and memory pricing power drive AI supply-chain positioning; copper hits records on tariff fears though FCX signals split; Japan's record UST selling and BOJ tightening keep duration under pressure while Fed hike calls clash.
Goldman lifted 2026-28 optical transceiver TAM by 33%, 81% and 115% to $68B/$131B/$148B, while Evercore sees co-packaged optics at scale only in 2027/28 on yield and cost. Near term, 800G-plus pluggables and AECs stay dominant; InP substrates are flagged as the next chokepoint. This creates room for suppliers to beat on orders.
Goldman projects Samsung revenue to about $785B by 2028, while KB Securities sees memory rising from 14% of AI infrastructure spend in 2025 to 57% by 2027. HBM is effectively sold out and CXMT's LPDDR6 shortage pushes buyers to SK hynix. Ironwood's cost edge is a watch item, not immediate displacement.
LME copper reached a record $14,533/t, lifted by expected US tariffs on refined imports, low exchange inventories and AI/grid demand. TheValueist looks for a sub-$70 FCX pullback entry, but Dmitry Solodin exited FCX on a potential diagonal lower in copper. The divergence is about timing, not scarcity.
Japan's reserves fell a record $79.6B in August with ~$88B foreign securities sold to fund yen defense; BOJ hike to 1.25% is nearly fully priced and 10-year JGBs near 3%. UBS flipped to a September and December Fed hike, while Brad Setser notes official holdings broadly stable. Long-end yields face two-way supply pressure.
BlackPantherCap owns BE, NBIS, IREN and CIFR as highest-conviction plays on the AI power bottleneck; RosannaInvests adds IREN for buildout economics and short-interest setup.
Italianinvesto remains long MU because tech CEOs say memory is the bottleneck; memory share forecasts and HBM sellout support the view.
Michael Sikand initiated a short-term long in ORCL ahead of earnings, citing OpenAI/Stargate-linked backlog and sentiment flip after GPT-6 Astra.
TheValueist waits for a sub-$70 FCX pullback; record price is acknowledged but entry discipline intact.
Northwise expects 2027 ARR and capex guidance to be a rude awakening, but holds both IREN and NBIS while comparing build economics.
Jason Calacanis expects large autonomy M&A with Uber, Lyft, Rivian and Lucid worth 50-100% more in 18 months; no confirmed deal.
Japan's UST selling and BOJ hike pricing keep Solodin and others cautious on TLT; zerohedge flags ~$90B Treasury sales funding yen intervention.
Andy Constan flags heavy capex and likely further issuance; shares are actively sold after $20B raise, so he offers no current stock view.
KawzInvests warns OpenAI/Anthropic voluntary pauses may delay the revenue that justifies current AI infrastructure spending.