Dmitry Solodin

The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.

The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.

Both companies have pristine balance sheets and growing earnings, but Free Cash Flow (FCF) is dipping due to massive AI Capex ($160B forecast for Google). The market is punishing them for spending, but this spending is necessary to secure future dominance. The dip in price offers a favorable risk/reward (e.g., MSFT risk $50 vs reward $200) before the AI investments potentially pay off. Long (Dip Buy). "Depreciation bomb" – if AI Capex doesn't generate returns, amortization costs will crush future EPS.

The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is breaking out of a 20-year historic resistance level. This technical breakout coincides with a projected global copper deficit. When a commodity producer breaks a multi-decade level during a supply crunch, it signals a violent repricing upward. A high-conviction long based on the convergence of macro supply/demand and a massive technical breakout. Global recession crushing industrial demand.

The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.

Speaker states he is starting to re-enter gold positions ("Я начинаю заново заходить в золото") and is improving his cost basis. He expects a strong mean reversion bounce back to the ~$5,000 level by April-May, based on technical patterns (triangle, wave count) and the large current deviation from the moving average. LONG because the setup offers a favorable risk/reward for a bounce, and he is actively rebuilding his position. The pattern could extend into a larger correction before the anticipated bounce.

CRM (Salesforce) is down ~50% and PEGA (Pegasystems) is trading at attractive valuations despite 300% EPS growth (for PEGA). Solodin notes these are top-tier "System of Record" companies. The market fears AI will replace these tools, but large enterprises (e.g., GM, AIG) cannot easily switch away from Salesforce due to decades of data integration, staff training, and embedded workflows. These companies possess the proprietary data required to train effective enterprise AI models, giving them a "Data Moat" startups cannot match. LONG. These are "sticky" businesses with growing cash flows trading at discount valuations. Continued compression of valuation multiples if AI fears persist longer than expected.

AMD has formed a "Regular Flat" correction pattern where the recent low matched the previous low (Double Bottom), and the price is reacting positively. Unlike Nvidia, which is showing exhaustion, AMD's technical structure suggests the correction is complete. The "Regular Flat" is a continuation pattern that typically precedes a run to new all-time highs (target ~$280). Long on technical mean reversion and trend continuation. Semiconductor sector weakness; failure to hold the double bottom support.

Bitcoin is following a precise 4-year cycle that aligns with previous tops. Based on "Top-to-Bottom" and "Bottom-to-Bottom" time cycles, a significant correction is due, targeting a bottom in late 2026. The current price action mimics the distribution patterns of previous cycle peaks. Short / Avoid (Expect correction to 40k-50k range). Institutional adoption (ETFs) breaks the historical retail-driven cycle.

PayPal has dropped significantly (80% from highs) and is now trading at deep value multiples, yet revenue and earnings continue to grow. The market is pricing it for bankruptcy, but the cash flows tell a story of a mature "value" company. Solodin removed his hedges, signaling a shift from "cautious holding" to "conviction holding." Long (Deep Value). Competition from Apple Pay/fintech; margin compression.

Duolingo is benefiting from AI integration, dramatically speeding up product development and expanding margins; EPS grew over 300% in 1.5 years, making it a strong growth hold.

Dell benefits from growing server demand driven by AI and CPU upgrades. The company has strong accelerating cash flows and a buyback program.

Trade Desk is the leading independent ad platform. Despite a reputational scandal, fundamentals are strong, CEO bought shares, and potential OpenAI partnership is a catalyst. Long-term position is justified.

На основе волнового анализа и макрорисков (инфляция, ухудшение рынка труда) ожидается коррекция индекса S&P 500 до уровней 6800 и затем 6600. Солодин открыл небольшой шорт через опционы с этими целями.