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14:00
Apr 16
Apr 16
BTC
RKLB
HOOD
PLTR
NVDA
▾
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.
Bitcoin serves as a counter-cyclical hedge against infinite money printing and currency debasement. After studying Michael Saylor's arguments, the speaker converted to the view that Bitcoin is a necessary asset in a world of fiscal inflation, despite its recent underperformance relative to gold and silver.
BTC LONG
Rocket Lab has high growth potential.
Rocket Lab is a high-growth company that was called by friends at $4 and went to $70. The stock is held as a long-term investment with potential for significant appreciation in the space sector.
RKLB LONG
Robin Hood will become a trillion-dollar company.
Robin Hood is 99.3% responsible for the retail trading boom, has gamified and democratized markets, and is expanding into banking, tokenization, and other financial services to capture every part of the user's financial experience. The company has a massive TAM, intense work culture led by Vlad, and will become a trillion-dollar company.
HOOD LONG
Palantir's retail cult drove institutional adoption.
Palantir is a B2B enterprise SaaS/AI company that developed a cult-like retail following, with retail loading up heavily under $20. As the company showed growth, institutions were forced to buy in, leading to index inclusions and a massive price appreciation. The stock's cultural movement and strong government contracts support the thesis.
PLTR LONG
Nvidia is a cornerstone AI investment.
Nvidia is a cornerstone holding bought at $90. Despite its large market cap, it offers exposure to the AI and data center themes. The stock was bought again after the DeepSeek news and after earnings when the street was being emotional, believing the street is wrong and the company's growth trajectory remains intact.
NVDA LONG
Oracle is a cheap cloud/AI infrastructure play.
Oracle was bought at $130 as a trade that may become an investment. It is considered cheap relative to its growth potential and is part of the broader cloud and AI infrastructure theme.
ORCL LONG
Grab is undervalued with a cash buffer.
Grab is a next big play with a $7 billion cash pile at a $14 billion market cap, offering a cheap enterprise value. The company has a path to profitability through margin improvement and is seen as an early investment that could take 2-3 years to play out, with a price target around $750.
GRAB LONG
Zeta is a software stock with potential.
Zeta (likely ZETA) was called at $18 after deep due diligence. It ran to $25, sold off to $14 in the SaaS selloff, and is back to $18. The thesis is based on the company's fundamentals and growth potential in software.
ZETA LONG
01:45
Apr 16
Apr 16
SNAP
HIMS
BIRD
IBKR
HOOD
▾
SNAP up on activist invest and layoffs.
Snapchat stock rose significantly after activist investment from Irenic Capital and layoffs that aim to reduce costs and achieve profitability, making it an attractive trade despite Thread Guy not taking it.
SNAP LONG
Hims gains from FDA peptide reclassification.
Hims stock rallied due to FDA reclassifying peptides, positioning Hims as a key beneficiary in the looks maxing trend, and Thread Guy has a long position in it, citing the FDA announcement as a catalyst.
HIMS LONG
Allbirds AI pivot is frothy.
Allbirds stock pumped excessively after rebranding as an AI company without substantive changes, indicating market frothiness and a potential top in such speculative moves, serving as a warning sign for similar dead companies.
BIRD AVOID
SEC rule change boosts retail brokers.
HOOD stock surged due to the SEC eliminating the 25k minimum equity requirement for day trading, which lowers the barrier for retail traders and increases activity on platforms like Robin Hood, with similar benefits for other brokers like Interactive Brokers.
IBKR LONG
HOOD LONG
Emit
MED
Commodities trading like speculative assets.
Commodities like silver, gold, and copper are trading based on speculative behavior similar to memecoins, undermining fundamental theses and making them less attractive for investment, leading Emit to exit his positions.
SILVER AVOID
GOLD AVOID
COPPER AVOID
23:26
Apr 15
Apr 15
HIMS
HOOD
WEBL
IBKR
SPY
▾
Long HIMS on FDA peptide approval momentum.
I took a long position in HIMS because the FDA is removing peptides from category 2, allowing HIMS to sell peptide-based treatments. HIMS is a direct-to-consumer platform for medications and peptides, and this announcement is a bullish catalyst for revenue acceleration, trading the momentum and mega church narrative around looks‑maxing.
HIMS LONG
Long broker stocks on PDT rule change.
The SEC approved ending the pattern day trader rule, eliminating the $25k minimum for day trading. This lowers the barrier for retail traders and will increase trading activity on platforms like Robin Hood, Weeble, and Interactive Brokers, making it a bullish catalyst for these broker stocks as part of the broader thesis that the entire world is going to trade.
HOOD LONG
WEBL LONG
IBKR LONG
Long SPY as market breaks to ATH.
The S&P 500 just hit all‑time highs, showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions. Stocks want to go up, and you can't fight this market, especially with Trump's pro‑market policies; the trend is up and likely to continue higher.
SPY LONG
Amit
HIGH
Long NVDA on AI demand undervaluation.
I bought Nvidia at $90 and $139, doubling down when the street was wrong after earnings. The demand for AI compute is insatiable, Nvidia is the best player, and the stock is undervalued given its growth prospects.
NVDA LONG
05:08
Apr 15
Apr 15
MSFT
NFLX
AMD
INTC
TSLA
▾
Microsoft chart looks terrible.
Microsoft's chart looks terrible, indicating weakness and poor technical structure.
MSFT AVOID
Netflix chart looks insane.
Netflix's chart looks insane, indicating strong performance and momentum, favored by chat.
NFLX LONG
AMD chart looks insane.
AMD's chart looks insane, showing strong upward momentum and performance.
AMD LONG
Intel chart almost there.
Intel's chart shows strong momentum, almost reaching a key level, indicating potential breakout.
INTC LONG
Tesla chart looks terrible.
Tesla's chart looks terrible despite being up 4%, indicating underlying weakness or poor technical structure.
TSLA AVOID
Google chart looks insane.
Google's chart looks insane, up four percent, showing strong performance.
GOOG LONG
Nvidia chart looks insane.
Nvidia's chart looks insane, indicating extreme strength and momentum in the stock.
NVDA LONG
Amazon chart looks good again.
Amazon's chart looks good again, trading over $250, showing a positive trend.
AMZN LONG
Oracle chart looks good again.
Oracle's chart looks pretty good again, up five percent, indicating renewed strength.
ORCL LONG
IGV chart looks bad vs peers.
IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) chart is the worst compared to everything else, suggesting underperformance in software stocks.
IGV AVOID
Solana chart is weakest in crypto.
Solana has the worst chart in crypto, indicating underperformance and weakness relative to other cryptocurrencies.
SOL AVOID
Silver chart looks strong.
The chart for silver looks really good, it's at $80 and appears strong, indicating potential further upside.
SILVER LONG
Apple chart looks terrible.
Apple's chart looks kind of terrible, suggesting weakness and unattractive technicals.
AAPL AVOID
Micron chart looks insane.
Micron's chart is insane, basically at all-time highs and up 10%, showing strong momentum.
MU LONG
WTI oil chart looks horrific.
WTI oil daily chart looks horrific, indicating severe weakness and a bearish trend.
WTI AVOID
00:27
Apr 14
Apr 14
SPY
WTI
USDC
BTC
Marco Rubio election contract
▾
Buy stocks Trump endorses for profits.
Trump's endorsements or actions, such as ordering DoorDash, tweeting about Palantir, or suggesting it's a good time to buy stocks, have historically caused price pumps, making buying whatever Trump promotes a profitable trading strategy.
SPY LONG
PLTR LONG
DASH LONG
Oil is untradeable due to war fatigue.
Oil has become untradeable because the market is bored of the war and no longer reacts to escalation news, making it a poor expression for trades.
WTI AVOID
Clarity bill passage bullish for Circle.
Circle's stock is rising on news that the Clarity bill is likely to pass soon, which is bullish for the company and crypto regulation.
USDC LONG
Crypto poised to go up.
Crypto, led by Bitcoin, wants to go up due to market dynamics and institutional buying, as seen with Michael Saylor's large purchases.
BTC LONG
Short JD Vance, long Marco Rubio elections.
JD Vance is being sabotaged by the Trump administration in favor of Marco Rubio for the 2028 election, creating a trading opportunity to short Vance's election odds and long Rubio's on prediction markets.
Marco Rubio election contract LONG
JD Vance election contract SHORT
22:39
Apr 13
Apr 13
HIMS
Marco Rubio
JD Vance
GENIUS
RAVE
▾
HIMS has a questionable business model.
HIMS sells finasteride, which can cause permanent erectile dysfunction in a significant percentage of users, and then sells Viagra to treat it. This creates a cycle of creating and solving problems, which is a questionable business model.
HIMS AVOID
Short JD Vance, long Marco Rubio for 2028.
He believes JD Vance is being sabotaged by the Trump administration to prevent him from winning the 2028 election, while Marco Rubio is being elevated. He plans to put a trade on PolyMarket: short JD Vance winning the election and long Marco Rubio winning.
Marco Rubio LONG
JD Vance SHORT
Genius token has diminishing shill returns.
The Genius token is being shilled by CZ, but he is uninterested due to diminishing shill returns and sees it as a late-stage, low-conviction play similar to earlier Aster hype.
GENIUS AVOID
Rave is a scam coin; avoid.
Rave is a scam coin with extreme negative funding rates and is likely a 'Binance Cabal coin.' He warns that trying to short it is extremely dangerous and that he avoids such crime coins entirely.
RAVE AVOID
Clara's business model is unsustainable.
Clara's buy-now-pay-later business model is unsustainable because people are taking loans for discretionary spending like Coachella tickets and will not repay. The stock has been crushed, and the model is fundamentally flawed.
Clara AVOID
Pokemon cards are in a blow-off top.
People are getting killed over Pokemon cards, which is a classic sign of a blow-off top in collectibles. He suggests that if you hold a lot of Pokemon cards, you should look to sell, and at least stop buying at the top.
Pokemon cards AVOID
Oil is untradable and should be avoided.
The market is bored with the war and oil is no longer reacting to escalation news. He has stopped trading it and believes it is untradable, especially to the upside, as supply constraints are not driving price action as expected.
WTI AVOID
Ethereum looks pretty good.
Ethereum looks pretty good and is part of the crypto rally he is observing.
ETH LONG
Monero looks pretty good.
Monero looks pretty good and is among the cryptocurrencies he highlights as performing well.
XMR LONG
Zcash looks decent and is printing well.
Zcash looks decent and is printing a good candle, and he mentions it multiple times as looking good amid a broader crypto uptrend.
ZEC LONG
Bitcoin looks strong and wants to go higher.
Bitcoin is strong, with Michael Saylor's company buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth via Stretch, the chart looks beautiful, and it is outperforming stocks and gold. He believes it wants to go higher and is the most interesting long trade in the current market.
BTC LONG
23:28
Apr 10
Apr 10
Worldify
WTI
▾
Avoid Worldify due to loan default risk.
Worldify token is risky because the team has taken massive loans against it and is unlikely to pay back, making it dangerous for holders.
Worldify AVOID
Long oil on geopolitical risks and funding.
I am extremely long oil with a tight stop loss, benefiting from funding, and believe oil should be higher due to the Strait of Hormuz situation and geopolitical tensions, though the market is pricing in peace from negotiations.
WTI LONG
22:25
Apr 10
Apr 10
BTC
WTI
▾
Bitcoin strong amid war, worth monitoring.
Bitcoin has shown strong performance during the geopolitical war, bottoming when the conflict started and maintaining resilience. This is an underdiscussed topic, and its price action suggests it is worth monitoring as a potential safe-haven or strong asset amid uncertainty.
BTC WATCH
Long oil on geopolitical risks and funding.
He is extremely long oil, holding a large position, and believes oil should be higher due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz situation. The market is pricing in peace, but any deviation could lead to aggressive price moves, and he is receiving funding payments that reduce his risk.
WTI LONG
14:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
XLK
DKNG
ZEC
WTI
▾
The speaker states "Software, horrible, okay? Horrible, down 4%. Software is disgusting... there isn't that many places to hide right now. Software just getting caked." The speaker highlights severe underperformance of the software sector within a broadly rising market, indicating acute sector-specific weakness. AVOID the software/technology services sector due to its pronounced and consistent weakness relative to the market. A sector rotation or rebound in growth stocks could rapidly reverse the underperformance.
XLK AVOID
The speaker states "DraftKings down seven. Chart definitely does look horrid, officially." The explicit callout of a declining price and a chart described as "horrid" indicates a negative technical and momentum view on the stock. AVOID due to clear bearish price action and a deteriorating chart structure, suggesting the asset is in a downtrend or has broken down. A broader market rally or positive company-specific news could reverse the downtrend.
DKNG AVOID
The speaker explicitly discusses his profitable long trade in Zcash (ZEC), noting the chart showed "obviously sophisticated buyers" and "insider irregular activity," with the asset putting in one of its biggest volume breakouts since February. The unusual, aggressive buying pressure and volume profile indicate strong, possibly informed, demand that is not adequately explained by public news flow. LONG due to the speaker's direct trading experience and observation of anomalous, strong buying activity that drove a significant price rally, suggesting continued upside potential or at least a very strong momentum setup. Geopolitical headline risk (e.g., Middle East war news) can cause violent, unpredictable sell-offs that force exits, as happened to the speaker during his trade.
ZEC LONG
The analyst describes an ongoing "largest energy crisis since the 70s and maybe ever," with physical shortages worsening, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and attacks potentially crippling production infrastructure for years. Severe, sustained physical supply destruction against inelastic demand must eventually translate into significantly higher prices, especially as inventory buffers deplete. The current futures market is criticized for being overly optimistic. LONG because the fundamental supply/demand picture is extraordinarily tight and worsening, with price being the only mechanism to ration demand and incentivize alternative supply routes. A sudden, genuine geopolitical resolution that reopens the Strait of Hormuz fully and ends attacks on energy infrastructure.
WTI LONG
02:00
Apr 10
Apr 10
BRN
USO
CRAK
▾
The speaker states spot prices (dated Brent) hit a nominal all-time high over $144/barrel, while June futures are significantly lower (~$110), creating extreme backwardation. This steep backwardation signals a "five-alarm fire" in the physical market, with desperate immediate demand for barrels. The futures market is pricing in optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but this is at odds with the severe and ongoing physical supply deficit. WATCH because the massive gap between spot and futures prices represents a critical market dislocation. The resolution of this tension—either through physical shortages driving futures higher or a geopolitical resolution easing spot prices—will determine the next major price move. A swift, sustainable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would alleviate the physical shortage and likely collapse the spot premium.
BRN WATCH
The speaker states the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed (transits dropped from 100-130/day to single digits), creating an existential supply crisis. His base case is that Iran will maintain functional control post-conflict, possibly with a toll. The strait's closure has shut in ~13 million barrels/day of production. Its reopening is the single most important variable for global oil supply. Even if a toll is instituted, the geopolitical instability of Iranian control raises long-term risk premiums and incentivizes costly bypass infrastructure. WATCH because the strait's status is the core driver of the global oil crisis. Any development regarding its reopening or the terms of its operation (e.g., tolls, controlled traffic) will cause extreme volatility and redefine trade flows. A decisive military campaign by the U.S. or allies to retake control of the strait, though considered unlikely, would break the thesis.
USO WATCH
The speaker highlights that diesel crack spreads in New York Harbor exploded from $30 to $90 per barrel during the crisis, and that demand destruction is driven by refined product prices, not just crude. The physical shortage and logistical chaos are hitting the refined product market first and hardest, as seen with jet fuel rationing in Italy and Asian refinery run cuts. The refining margin (crack spread) is the mechanism that rations scarce crude into finished products. LONG because the extreme tightening in product markets (evidenced by skyrocketing crack spreads) is a more immediate and severe symptom of the supply crisis than the crude futures price suggests. This implies strength in refining margins and product prices relative to crude. A rapid resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure that quickly restores global refinery feedstock supply.
CRAK LONG
22:41
Apr 09
Apr 09
ZEC
USO
▾
Thread Guy states he is in a new, smaller ZEC trade after being stopped out of a larger, profitable position. He describes the chart action as showing "obviously sophisticated buyers" and "insider irregular activity," with a breakout on volume not seen since February. He believes the buying pressure is anomalous and strong, indicating continued upside potential despite the prior stop-out being caused by unpredictable war headlines. The direction is LONG because he re-entered the position on the premise the initial explosive move has further to run, and the asset is showing exceptional strength within the crypto complex he now finds "interesting again." Geopolitical war headlines (e.g., ceasefire announcements/violations) that cause violent, unpredictable risk-off moves across markets, as happened previously.
ZEC LONG
Thread Guy is long oil futures but calls it "the most miserable trade of all time" and "garbage," frustrated by extreme volatility driven by war headlines. He acknowledges the trade is "hard mode." He identifies two conflicting macro truths: 1) President Trump "desperately wants out" of the war, and 2) The broader equity market "wants to go up." This creates a chaotic environment where oil can dump on optimistic headlines despite the physical crisis described by Johnston. The direction is WATCH because the fundamental setup (physical shortage) is compelling, but the geopolitical noise and headline risk make positioning and risk management extremely difficult, leading to "sloppy execution." False or misleading geopolitical announcements (e.g., ceasefires) that trigger violent reversals against fundamental positions.
USO WATCH
22:35
Apr 08
Apr 08
BTC
WTI
ZEC
▾
Iran announced it will only accept Bitcoin as payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The speaker conceded this might be a genuine, unique use case for Bitcoin as a censorship-resistant settlement layer between enemies. In this specific, adversarial context, traditional finance (Swift), stablecoins (risk of freeze), and privacy coins (insufficient liquidity) are non-viable. Bitcoin's neutrality and finality make it a pragmatic, if not ideal, choice. WATCH. This represents a novel, high-stakes potential demand driver for Bitcoin as a tool of geopolitical statecraft, contrasting with its typical retail/investment narratives. It merits monitoring for adoption and price impact. The announcement is posturing and not implemented. The sell pressure from Iran liquidating Bitcoin could outweigh its utility narrative. Practical off-ramping for large sums remains a challenge.
BTC WATCH
Oil (WTI) dumped ~18% on the fake ceasefire news. The speaker entered a long position with a tight stop loss, acknowledging he was "forced" to by the market due to the mispricing, despite not wanting to trade oil. The ceasefire was fake, meaning the fundamental supply disruption risk from the war (closed Strait of Hormuz) has not been resolved. A 18% drop on false news represents a potential dislocation. LONG. The trade is a contrarian bet that the market has overreacted to false news and will re-price higher as the ongoing war reality sets in, or that headline slop will cause a whip back. The trade structure is complicated by the hyperliquid perpetual contract roll (negative funding, oracle price step-down), which the speaker does not fully understand. A genuine geopolitical de-escalation would also break the thesis.
WTI LONG
The speaker opened a long ZEC position at ~259, doubled around ~312, and sold at ~327 for a ~50% gain. He sold because the "fake ceasefire" narrative collapsed, returning the market to a war footing. The trade was a leveraged bet on a ceasefire-driven risk-on rally. When Iran denied the ceasefire and hostilities resumed, the fundamental premise for holding the leveraged long evaporated, forcing an exit to avoid a round-trip. NEUTRAL (Exited). The trade thesis was proven correct (ceasefire pump), but the catalyst was false, necessitating an exit. The chart still looks good, but holding a leveraged crypto long amidst renewed war uncertainty is unjustifiable. The war de-escalates genuinely, allowing risk assets like ZEC to rally irrespective of the technical exit.
ZEC NEUTRAL
18:44
Apr 08
Apr 08
GOLD
BTC
CASH
▾
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
long-term
Schiff explicitly states, "whenever gold goes down, just buy it," and cites central bank demand, inflation, and dollar weakness as drivers, with targets now at $10,000-$20,000. Central banks are diversifying from dollars into gold, a trend accelerated by geopolitical tensions like the Iran war, while expected Fed QE will further devalue fiat currencies. LONG because gold is a proven store of value during monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty, with strong structural demand. A productivity boom from AI could reduce inflationary pressures and the need for hard assets.
GOLD LONG
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
medium-term to long-term
Schiff directly says, "Bitcoin's going to crash," and notes it remains below its 2021 high, with ~12% returns over five years, calling it a "broken clock" asset. He argues Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value, faces competition from gold as a hedge, and investors will shift new money away from it as confidence wanes. SHORT because Bitcoin is viewed as overvalued, speculative, and prone to collapse as traditional safe havens like gold gain favor. Bitcoin could see renewed adoption or regulatory support, driving prices higher contrary to his view.
BTC SHORT
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
medium-term
Schiff states, "I hate cash," and that "inflation is going to destroy the value," keeping only minimal cash for expenses while being nearly fully invested. He expects aggressive Fed easing and money printing to erode purchasing power, making cash a losing asset compared to tangible or productive investments. AVOID holding significant cash balances in favor of assets like gold, silver, or foreign stocks that can preserve or increase value. A deflationary shock or sudden dollar strength could make cash more valuable temporarily.
CASH AVOID
23:32
Apr 07
Apr 07
ZEC
HYPE
GOLD
▾
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short-to-medium term (trade based on war/ceasefire developments).
Thread Guy states he is "long Zcash," entered a "nibble" position around $297, and is "up 100%" on it as the price rallies on ceasefire headlines. He previously stated it was "piss missile candling" and that there's been a "vibe shift" on premier crypto tokens. He argues Zcash has carved out a resilient niche as a privacy-focused crypto asset that "matters" independent of broader crypto trends, especially during periods of geopolitical tension. LONG because he is explicitly positioned long, sees strong price action confirming his thesis, and believes the asset has fundamental staying power. A failure of the ceasefire and major geopolitical escalation could force de-risking. A broader crypto market downturn could also pressure it.
ZEC LONG
Thread Guy explicitly states, "Hyperliquid has... proven that they are very important and valuable," citing their 24/7 trading platform's ability to capture gains during weekend market-moving events (like gold/silver mania and oil gaps). The platform successfully handled the "first real stress test for onchain commodities" during the war, proving its utility and reliability. This performance strengthens its competitive moat. WATCH because it's highlighted as a critical infrastructure piece that has validated its thesis during a crisis, making it a key asset to monitor for future growth and adoption. Technological failure, regulatory crackdown, or a catastrophic security breach.
HYPE WATCH
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Long-term.
Schiff states, "any pullback is a buying opportunity" for gold and silver. He attributes the rally from $2,000 to $5,500 to central bank buying and expects this trend to accelerate due to the Iran conflict incentivizing de-dollarization. He believes the US fiscal and monetary path (more QE, high debt) will continue to debase the dollar, and geopolitical tensions will push central banks to further diversify into gold. LONG because he sees sustained institutional demand and macro tailwinds. He advises his clients and viewers to accumulate physical metal. An unexpected, massive surge in productivity from AI that creates deflationary abundance, though he views this as a low-probability black swan.
GOLD LONG
22:39
Apr 06
Apr 06
WTI
TSLA
LVMH
▾
Based on the Catrini article's on-the-ground reporting, the Strait of Hormuz is a managed "toll road" where Iran allows approved ships through, not a mined or fully blockaded channel. Oil can flow (and is flowing) even as war escalates, because countries are striking independent bilateral deals with Iran. The price of oil is therefore decoupled from being a pure war escalation hedge. The direct oil trade is "done" as it is no longer a clean expression of the war thesis; it's a "cursed asset" because the world is actively trying to suppress its price while the war continues. A full-scale, regime-toppling war that completely closes the Strait regardless of deals.
WTI AVOID
Thread Guy notes Tesla trades at a ~350 PE ratio versus the S&P's ~15, and that Elon Musk is planning to launch a second token for SpaceX. Drawing a direct analogy to crypto, when a founder launches a second speculative token, it often dilutes interest and value from the first token because it splits the "proxy exposure" to the founder. Tesla is unattractive here because a significant portion of its valuation is tied to being the sole public "Elon proxy," and the SpaceX token launch risks diluting that premium. The market does not treat Tesla like a crypto asset, and the SpaceX token launch has no measurable impact on Tesla's automotive or energy business fundamentals.
TSLA AVOID
Thread Guy is short LVMH, stating the stock is down 40% from its high and just posted its worst Q1 in history, worse than 2008. The luxury market is being decimated by high-quality counterfeits, mirroring the collapse of the sneaker market. The prevalence of indistinguishable fakes (e.g., on Canal Street) removes the social pressure and incentive for non-wealthy consumers to buy authentic goods. The "era of designer is falling on hard times" as the core consumer base erodes, making the sector structurally unattractive. A reversal in the counterfeit trend or a successful crackdown by luxury brands protecting their IP and brand value.
LVMH SHORT
22:43
Apr 02
Apr 02
GOLD
TSLA
WTI
▾
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short-term to medium-term, depending on market developments and escalation risks.
Thread Guy says, "I kind of like gold right now. I've never traded gold before, but increasingly feels like ah, if you're going to go long something, it it's becoming an interesting spot." In the context of geopolitical unrest (Iran tensions), market confusion, and potential hedging needs, gold is being considered as a safe-haven asset for the first time by the speaker. Watch gold for potential long opportunities, as it may serve as a hedge against further market volatility or escalation, warranting monitoring for entry points. Gold may not react as expected if other assets (e.g., oil or crypto) dominate safe-haven flows, or if geopolitical tensions ease abruptly.
GOLD WATCH
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Medium-term, around the time of the SpaceX IPO expected in June or July.
Thread Guy discusses the SpaceX IPO filing and draws an analogy to crypto, stating that "every single time in the history of cryptocurrency when a dev, a team, a founder has launched a second token, both of them just end up going to zero." Tesla's elevated PE ratio is partly attributed to its status as the only direct public exposure to Elon Musk; with the SpaceX IPO, this premium may compress as investor attention and capital shift to the new asset, similar to crypto second token dynamics. Avoid Tesla as it is unattractive and faces potential valuation pressure from the SpaceX IPO, which could dilute its unique appeal and lead to underperformance. Elon Musk's strong brand loyalty and Tesla's fundamentals might sustain its valuation, or the SpaceX IPO could be delayed or have minimal impact.
TSLA AVOID
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short-term to medium-term, until trends or clarity emerge.
Thread Guy explicitly states, "I'm done with oil for now. I'm officially announcing to you guys that I'm done." The oil market has become highly volatile and unpredictable due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Trump's speech on Iran), and the initial spread from understanding market positioning has diminished, making trades risky without clear direction. Avoid oil trades because the current environment lacks substantive catalysts, and flip-flopping on headlines is likely to lead to losses unless there is a major escalation or de-escalation. A significant geopolitical event, such as a ceasefire or military escalation, could provide new trading opportunities and break the current stalemate.
WTI AVOID
23:01
Apr 01
Apr 01
GOLD
USO
▾
The speaker explicitly says, "I want to own metal. I want to own gold. I want to own oil," framing them as "hard assets" and "revenge of the old economy" plays in the current geopolitical climate. In a scenario of Middle East escalation, monetary disruption, and a flight to "heavy asset low obsolescence" commodities, gold serves as a classic hedge and store of value. WATCH because it is cited as a desirable asset in the speaker's macro framework, but no specific trade entry, sizing, or catalyst is detailed compared to the oil thesis. The narrative for "hard assets" may be subsumed by more direct commodity plays (like oil) or may not materialize if crises are contained.
GOLD WATCH
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short-term to medium-term (trade duration was several weeks, based on sentiment shift).
The speaker explicitly states he is "extremely overexposed to crude longs," entered a long position averaging ~$85, and details a supply crisis (Strait of Hormuz closed, 20M bpd deficit) that the market is mispricing. The physical oil supply shock is so severe (18M bpd deficit after reserve releases) and politically sensitive (U.S. panics over $100 Brent) that market sentiment must eventually re-price oil higher, regardless of short-term interventions. LONG because the fundamental supply/demand imbalance is extreme and the market's initial dismissal of it (dumping oil on IEA news) presented a high-conviction, asymmetric entry point. Government intervention, specifically an outright price cap, could legally suppress the futures price and break the trade irrespective of physical shortages.
USO LONG
22:55
Apr 01
Apr 01
FARTCOIN
SNAP
▾
The speaker describes receiving a tip that the Drift protocol was hacked for ~$220M and that the exploiter held a large amount of "Fartcoin," which they would sell. A hack of this magnitude forces the exploiter to liquidate stolen assets, creating immediate, high-volume selling pressure on the specific tokens they hold. This creates a high-probability, short-term short opportunity on the impacted token (Fartcoin) as the forced selling occurs. The speaker executed this trade and reported a fast 40% gain. The trade is time-sensitive and requires immediate execution upon news of the hack; being late results in missed entry or selling into an already crashed price.
FARTCOIN SHORT
The speaker is "obsessed" with and "fired up" by Irenic Capital's activist campaign against Snap, which involved buying a 2.5% stake and publishing a detailed public letter outlining a plan to 7x the share price. Public, well-structured activist campaigns can generate immediate market attention and buying pressure, as seen with Snap's 25% intraday spike on the news. This represents a modern, attention-driven market playbook. This event is a archetypal case study worth monitoring for future similar opportunities. The speaker's intense focus implies he views this strategy as a repeatable and high-signal event type in current markets. The initial pop may be the entire move if the company ignores the activist's demands or if the broader market rejects the thesis. It is an event-driven spike, not a fundamental long-term valuation call.
SNAP WATCH
22:36
Mar 31
Mar 31
MEMECOINS
ZEC
▾
Thread Guy shows charts of memecoin platforms like Pump.fun and Rollbit, calling them "horrifying," "structurally fried," and an "atrocity." He states calling a memecoin bottom is a "low IQ activity." Memecoin mania is seen as a cyclical, tribal phenomenon where each new cycle is led by entirely new tokens (e.g., a future "Trumpcoin"), making it futile to bottom-fish old projects. The asset class exhibits extreme volatility and decay. The area is unattractive and offers poor risk/reward. It is "completely horrifying" and best avoided entirely. A sudden, viral new memecoin could ignite a new speculative frenzy, but it would be unrelated to existing projects.
MEMECOINS AVOID
Thread Guy bought Zcash (ZEC) at $249 and $256, with a stop below $242, and is willing to add more on strength in the $260s-$280s. The trade is a dual-narrative play: (a) Google's quantum computing paper mentions Zcash 38 times and frames it as quantum-resistant, creating attention-based buying, and (b) Zcash is the "fastest horse" in crypto on days with positive war de-escalation news (like the potential Trump "Taco Supreme"). This is a short-term, attention-driven momentum trade, not a long-term fundamental hold. The goal is to capitalize on focused narrative hype. The quantum threat narrative is long-dated and may not sustain price action. The war de-escalation narrative is uncertain and could reverse.
ZEC LONG
17:50
Mar 31
Mar 31
VZ
T
XLK
▾
Andrew Yang states that Americans overpay for wireless service by ~$48/month vs. Europeans, funneling an extra ~$100B/year to carriers. He explicitly names Verizon and AT&T, noting they pay $11B and $7B in annual dividends, respectively, funded by this "consumer gouging." This pricing gap is presented as a massive, sustained inefficiency and wealth transfer from consumers to shareholders of the incumbent carriers. SHORT. The thesis implies these companies are vulnerable to disruption from transparent, low-margin models (like his Noble Mobile), which could compress their excessive profits and dividend payouts by aligning U.S. prices with global norms. Extreme consumer inertia and regulatory capture protect the incumbents; a truly disruptive competitor fails to gain sufficient scale to force industry-wide repricing.
VZ SHORT
T SHORT
Yang explicitly states, "AI is to knowledge workers what the machines were to the factory workers," and that "entire companies are going to be driven into obsolescence by AI." He references the Catrini article's thesis of a deflationary crisis driven by AI outperforming expectations. The causal chain posits that AI's capabilities will advance rapidly ("nearing the fifth inning"), leading to mass displacement of white-collar jobs without adequate societal mitigation (like a robot tax), causing severe economic and social disruption. AVOID. The broad sector of technology services, particularly software and knowledge-work-heavy companies, faces existential risk from commoditization and labor displacement, making it an unattractive area with broken underlying business models. The timeline for disruptive AI adoption is slower than predicted; new, unforeseen job categories emerge rapidly enough to absorb displaced workers (the Jevons Paradox holds).
XLK AVOID
22:04
Mar 30
Mar 30
WTI
VZ
T
▾
Thread Guy states he is "long oil" and that the price is being manipulated by both the U.S. and Iran as a proxy war in the order books, with Trump's "tacos" failing to suppress the price. The kinetic war in Iran creates physical supply risks. Attempts at verbal market manipulation (peace talk announcements) are losing efficacy, suggesting underlying fundamentals (supply risk, depletion of interceptors) are overpowering rhetoric. The failure of bearish verbal interventions indicates strong underlying bullish pressure from the conflict. Holding long exposure captures this geopolitical risk premium. A genuine, credible diplomatic breakthrough that de-escalates the conflict and removes the threat to supply. Also, potential for a severe demand shock from broader market recession.
WTI LONG
Yang states Verizon pays $11B and AT&T pays $7B in annual dividends, funded by "consumer gouging." He claims Americans overpay by ~$48/month vs. Europeans, a $100B annual transfer. These telecom giants operate in an uncompetitive market where consumer inertia and lack of carrier-switching experience allow them to extract excessive profits, which are funneled to shareholders rather than improving value. The business model is predicated on rent-seeking and exploiting customer lock-in. Investors in these companies are directly benefiting from this consumer overpayment, which is unsustainable if competition or awareness increases. Regulatory intervention remains unlikely given current political inertia. A significant shift in consumer behavior toward MVNOs or disruptors like Yang's Noble Mobile would take time.
VZ AVOID
T AVOID
23:02
Mar 27
Mar 27
BRENT
SPY
▾
The speaker is "back in" a long oil trade, noting Brent is at $106 and "candling out of control." He cites the breaking of the $100 "line in the sand," headlines of Russian refinery attacks crippling supply, and the "irreversible" power Iran now holds over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran war is a battle for control of oil price. Iran's strategy is to drive the price higher to force US concessions. Supply shocks (Russia) and demand inelasticity mean any escalation directly translates to higher prices. Trump is perceived as being forced to escalate, which would further pressure supply. The fundamental setup for oil is strongly bullish due to concurrent supply constraints and geopolitical demand, with price action confirming the breakout. A rapid and credible peace deal between the US and Iran that re-opens the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalates tensions would lead to a massive price crash.
BRENT LONG
The speaker states SPY closed down 1.6% after "non-stop selling," its daily chart looks "really disgusting," and it is at a "critical level." He explicitly says the market is "puking, pissing into market close" and that Trump's attempts to control it have failed. The failure of Trump's latest "taco" (market-moving announcement) to sustain a move indicates a loss of narrative control. This, combined with sustained selling pressure into a weekend where geopolitical escalation is expected, breaks the previous pattern of stability. The market is reacting to worsening geopolitical fundamentals (Iran war) without the cushion of presidential influence, suggesting further downside as the situation deteriorates. A sudden, decisive de-escalation in the Iran conflict or a powerful, coordinated central bank/market intervention could spark a sharp relief rally.
SPY SHORT
00:38
Mar 27
Mar 27
TAO
▾
Speaker states TAO is "the third great coin" after Bitcoin and Ethereum and is "the most important thing that's happened since Ethereum." He provides a conservative price target of $3,000 by end of year, citing its position analogous to Bitcoin in 2013 and compounding demand from subnet economics. Bittensor replicates Bitcoin's successful incentive model to bootstrap decentralized computation networks (e.g., for AI). Demand for TAO is driven by its need to create/stake in subnets, with 70% of supply already locked. Successful subnets (like Ridge beating Claude) validate the model and attract more capital and attention. The speaker's fund is structured to accumulate 1% of all TAO, and he believes it will follow a price appreciation path similar to early Bitcoin and Ethereum due to its foundational role in a new, scalable decentralized compute paradigm. A regulatory crackdown targeting decentralized AI, or a critical failure at the chain level (e.g., a hack or flawed implementation of a feature like on-chain lending).
TAO LONG
22:55
Mar 26
Mar 26
USO
SPY
TAO
▾
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
short-term to medium-term, tied to geopolitical developments over days to weeks.
Trump explicitly said in a press conference that he thought oil would go up more and stocks would go down more, indicating he expects further escalation. Trump's comments suggest impending military action against Iran, which would disrupt oil supply and drive prices higher, as seen in historical conflicts and current supply risks (e.g., attacks on Russian oil infrastructure). Long oil as a direct play on geopolitical escalation and supply shocks, with Trump effectively "screaming" the trade. De-escalation via a Trump "Supreme Taco" (peace move) or rapid conflict resolution, which could cause oil prices to plummet.
USO LONG
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
short-term, aligned with imminent geopolitical events and market sentiment shifts.
Trump expressed surprise that stocks aren't lower, and Thread Guy observes market panic with SPY down 7% from highs, calling it the first day of real fear. Historical patterns show market declines during conflicts, and current escalation risks could trigger further sell-offs as leveraged capital bets on de-escalation unwind. Short SPY to capitalize on expected downturn driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the diminishing efficacy of Trump's supportive measures ("tacos"). Trump intervenes with market-positive policies or a de-escalation announcement, sparking a rally similar to past "buy stocks" comments.
SPY SHORT
Mark Jeffrey
Partner at Stillcore Capital, Investor in Bittensor Subnets
medium-term to long-term, with catalysts expected through 2026.
Mark Jeffrey explicitly states that Bit Tensor (TAO) is the most important cryptocurrency since Ethereum, with a decentralized AI platform, and gives a price target of $3,000 by year-end. Bit Tensor's model incentivizes global AI training competition via subnets, has proven decentralized training runs (e.g., Templar), and its economic structure ties subnet token demand to TAO, creating scarcity and value appreciation. Long TAO based on adoption similar to Bitcoin's early growth, subnet expansion to 256, and institutional interest, with conservative upside potential. Regulatory crackdown on AI or crypto, chain hacks, or failure to scale decentralized AI effectively.
TAO LONG
22:25
Mar 25
Mar 25
BTC
WTI
PER
VCX
▾
Speaker observes "crypto looks insane" and notes Bitcoin ETFs are seeing strong inflows, nearly erasing their year-to-date flow deficit, which is abnormal compared to other asset classes like gold. He identifies a "biddable basket" of alts (including TAO, Zcash, Monero, Layer Zero) showing strength. This, combined with resilient ETF flows despite a prior price drop, suggests underlying strength and a potential narrative shift. The sector is showing concrete signs of accumulation and rotation, warranting close attention for a potential sustained move. The positive price action could be fleeting and tied to broader, unresolved macro and geopolitical uncertainty.
BTC WATCH
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short-term to medium-term (until the geopolitical situation resolves clearly).
Speaker explicitly states, "You will lose on oil," and describes it as "the worst trade ever," despite acknowledging the bullish fundamental setup (war, supply disruption). The market only moves on headlines, and every headline is demonstrably fake or manipulated (e.g., the false Israeli ceasefire report). This creates an environment where price action is completely detached from fundamentals and is dictated by opaque manipulation. The market structure is broken for traders. The extreme opacity and manipulation mean that even a correct fundamental view cannot be profitably traded, leading to guaranteed frustration and losses. A genuine, unambiguous escalation (e.g., US troops entering Iran) could force the market to reflect fundamentals, but until then, the manipulation dominates.
WTI AVOID
Speaker states he is "fully convinced" that if there is another mass on-chain onboarding event, it will be through perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, calling it "the number one venue to trade all assets with one unified balance." He compares it to every major past crypto onboarding product (e.g., MetaMask, OpenSea, Phantom, Pump.fun) and argues Hyperliquid's unified experience for trading everything from crypto to traditional assets like Tesla or oil is superior and removes previous bottlenecks. The platform's user experience and product-market fit are so strong that he believes "everyone's going to trade per" eventually, especially the next generation of volatility-seeking traders. Regulatory hurdles, specifically US legalization and the need for VPNs, could slow mainstream adoption.
PER LONG
Speaker highlights VCX is trading at a ~25x premium to its Net Asset Value (NAV), meaning investors are paying for exposure to Anthropic at an implied $5 trillion valuation. This is late-cycle, low-liquidity speculative behavior where money chases the only available "proxy" for hot private AI companies, ignoring cheaper alternatives (e.g., Amazon for Anthropic exposure, Microsoft for OpenAI exposure). The trade is purely multiple expansion on a narrative with no fundamental backing at current prices. It represents a dangerous, euphoric bubble reminiscent of past meme stock frenzies like HKD. If Anthropic or OpenAI IPO at valuations even higher than current secondary rounds, the narrative could sustain the bubble briefly longer.
VCX AVOID
17:23
Mar 25
Mar 25
WTI
BTC
▾
The speaker analyzes oil price action as directly tied to war outcomes: it rips on a full invasion but drops on ceasefire announcements. The administration is actively trying to suppress oil to buy time, but the market's reaction to peace headlines is diminishing. A critical loss of trust could trigger an uncontrolled spike. WATCH because the price direction is binary and hinges entirely on a high-stakes geopolitical decision (invade vs. deal) within days, with asymmetric risk if the "diminishing returns" thesis plays out. An immediate, verifiable ceasefire deal is reached, causing a sharp drop in oil.
WTI WATCH
The speaker lists "Bitcoin go to church" as a consequence of the worst-case outcome where trust collapses, oil spikes, and stocks crash. In a scenario where traditional risk assets (stocks) fail and faith in government narratives breaks down, Bitcoin is presented as a potential beneficiary or safe haven. LONG as a hedge against a catastrophic loss of control in traditional markets stemming from the war, though this is framed as a tail-risk outcome. The conflict resolves cleanly (invasion or deal) without triggering a broader crisis of confidence in markets.
BTC LONG
02:46
Mar 25
Mar 25
TAO
BTC
▾
The speaker described Bit Tensor as taking Bitcoin's core innovation—a hyper-competitive monetary feedback loop—and abstracting it to incentivize and coordinate any form of work, particularly in AI. He cited examples where its subnets achieved state-of-the-art results (e.g., cheapest inference, best benchmarks). The "dynamic TAO" model creates a market where subnets must economically constrain TAO to earn emissions. Success breeds more locked value, creating a flywheel. This is positioned as a superior, decentralized model for developing and commoditizing AI capabilities. LONG because it is framed as a foundational, neutral protocol for incentive-driven computation with a proven ability to create efficient markets and a long growth runway as its ecosystem of subnets and agents matures. Failure to continue attracting developers to build valuable, economically sustainable subnets, or inability to solve the complex game-theoretic challenges of designing cheat-proof incentive mechanisms.
TAO LONG
The speaker stated Bitcoin is "inherently a freedom technology," immutable, and built to be uncapturable by governments or founders. He believes its control over the monetary network will be more valuable than transaction fees in the long term. He views Bitcoin as a foundational, nation-state-level computing network secured by hyper-competitive capital. This creates a permanent, neutral base layer for digital value that enables all other crypto experimentation. LONG because it is seen as a uniquely secure, decentralized, and politically resistant asset with a multi-decade growth runway as it becomes embedded in the global economy. A fundamental break in the social consensus around Bitcoin or a catastrophic, undiscovered flaw in its cryptographic or incentive design.
BTC LONG
23:05
Mar 24
Mar 24
TAO
WTI
▾
Const states his "base case" is that TAO could go 200x in 5 to 10 years, valuing it as a foundational protocol for decentralized intelligence. He believes Bit Tensor's model of using monetary incentives to mine intelligence is a revolutionary abstraction, comparable to Bitcoin's impact. As subnets create real economic value and demand for TAO grows, the token should appreciate significantly over a long period. The direction is LONG as a long-term, high-conviction bet on the protocol's vision and technological paradigm, not a short-term trade. The technology is complex and must compete with well-funded, centralized AI labs; execution risks, lack of adoption, or failure of subnets to generate sustainable value could break the thesis.
TAO LONG
Thread Guy details how the oil market is reacting with decreasing magnitude to successive Trump administration headlines about de-escalation with Iran, culminating in a only a 5% drop on a major "ceasefire" report. He argues that trading oil has become equivalent to trading Trump's approval rating or the credibility of his announcements, not underlying fundamentals. The "law of diminishing tacos" means this tool for suppressing price is losing efficacy, creating an unpredictable and potentially violent setup. The direction is AVOID because the primary market driver (Trump's narrative) is becoming unreliable and the risk/reward is poor; attempting to trade based on geopolitical fundamentals is a losing battle against these forces. An actual, verified geopolitical escalation (e.g., ground invasion) could cause oil to spike violently, making avoidance a missed opportunity.
WTI AVOID
22:40
Mar 23
Mar 23
TOWEL
GOLD
BTC
WTI
▾
Thread Guy said he "longed towel at 266" and added more, based on social attention from figures like Jason Calacanis who are shilling it aggressively. Similar to past crypto pumps like Zcash, when influential non-crypto natives promote a token, it drives attention and buying pressure, leading to potential price appreciation. Long towel because the attention thesis suggests a momentum play with quick returns, supported by high-profile endorsements and market narratives. If the social hype fades or if the project lacks substance, the price could collapse; reliance on influencers makes it speculative.
TOWEL LONG
Thread Guy observed that gold is "off a cliff" and trading like a "shitcoin," with poor price action and high volatility. In the current environment, gold is not performing as a safe haven asset; it is experiencing sharp declines and lacks sustained momentum, similar to speculative assets. Avoid gold because it is not holding up during geopolitical unrest and is subject to erratic moves, making it unattractive for hedging or investment. If geopolitical risks escalate severely, gold might surge as a traditional safe haven, but current behavior suggests it is unreliable.
GOLD AVOID
Thread Guy stated he is "full poor at BTC basically damn near 75%" and has been holding Bitcoin for about a year. Despite Bitcoin not acting as a geopolitical hedge and instead correlating with tech stocks, he believes in its long-term value and expects it to appreciate over time. Long Bitcoin because he is convinced it will eventually go up, even if short-term movements are tied to risk assets, and he maintains a significant portfolio allocation. If the market turns risk-off or Bitcoin fails to decouple from tech leverage, it could underperform; geopolitical unrest may not boost it as expected.
BTC LONG
Thread Guy explicitly stated he round-tripped two oil trades on fake news and is "done with the oil trades at the moment" due to frustration and stop-outs. The oil market is heavily manipulated by Trump's announcements (tacos) and coordinated interventions (e.g., SPR releases), causing unpredictable whipsaws that make consistent profits difficult. Avoid trading oil because the market is controlled by headlines and external manipulations, leading to high risk of losses despite fundamental escalations. If the war escalates beyond headline control (e.g., actual supply disruptions), oil could break out, but currently, interventions cap upside.
WTI AVOID
22:07
Mar 20
Mar 20
TLT
GOLD
BTC
WTI
▾
The speaker highlights "US 10 year ripping, bro" and states "we may have to become bond traders." He analyzes the move in context, recalling that a spike in yields triggered a prior policy reversal ("Liberation Day"). Rapidly rising bond yields (spiking ~12% from recent lows) could force a political response ("taco") from the Trump administration, as they threaten economic stability. Monitoring this move is critical for predicting a potential policy pivot. WATCH because the bond market is sending a powerful signal that may dictate the next major political/macro pivot point, creating significant alpha for those who anticipate it. Yields stabilize or reverse without triggering a policy response, making the observation a coincident indicator rather than a predictive one.
TLT WATCH
The speaker observes gold is "off a cliff" and "getting wrecked" despite high geopolitical tension, questioning "who is selling gold?" He reads and summarizes an article citing dollar strength, rising real yields, and broken physical demand from the Middle East/Asia as reasons. The current crisis is causing a scramble for USD liquidity and rising real yields, which are directly negative for gold. Additionally, the physical market infrastructure (via Dubai) is disrupted, removing a key source of demand. AVOID because the traditional risk-off hedge is failing in this specific crisis due to powerful mechanical and structural headwinds that may persist. The crisis resolves quickly, liquidity pressures ease, and physical gold demand returns rapidly, sparking a sharp reversal.
GOLD AVOID
The speaker notes "crypto actually looks pretty impressive" and "Bitcoin is green today" during a broad equity sell-off. He later states "Bitcoin at 100K would get me out of a lot of spots" regarding his tax bill. In an environment where traditional risk assets (equities) and traditional hedges (gold) are selling off due to geopolitical panic and liquidity scrambles, Bitcoin is demonstrating relative strength and acting as a viable store-of-value asset. LONG because it is showing resilience and attractive store-of-value properties during a crisis that is breaking traditional asset correlations. A broad, deep liquidity crunch that forces selling across all speculative assets, including crypto.
BTC LONG
The speaker is long crude oil, exercised futures contracts for physical delivery, and states "this market is not going down... It's objectively not." He argues the price "should be higher" and is insulated from export/price controls by holding physical barrels. Geopolitical escalation (ground troops to Iran, Strait of Hormuz closure) creates a severe physical supply shock. The market is under-pricing the risk and duration of the disruption, while paper markets may be suppressed by potential policy actions that don't affect physical holders. LONG because the fundamental supply/demand shock is not fully priced, and the physical commodity provides a hedge against political intervention in futures/paper markets. A rapid and credible de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the speaker doubts given recent headlines.
WTI LONG
00:33
Mar 20
Mar 20
WTI
GOLD
BTC
▾
Thread Guy expressed that he feels bullish on oil, reentered a trade on Brent at $100, and believes oil prices should be higher given the Strait of Hormuz closure and geopolitical risks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran creates a supply choke point, leading to potential oil price spikes, but markets are not fully pricing this in yet. Therefore, he advocates a LONG position on oil to capitalize on the impending price adjustment. If Trump successfully de-escalates ("tacos") or the conflict resolves quickly, oil prices might drop.
WTI LONG
Thread Guy said that in the bad outcomes for the US, gold will go up long-term. Similar to Bitcoin, a fracture in the dollar's reserve status would drive demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Hence, a LONG position on gold is suggested as a store of value during crisis. A swift resolution that strengthens the US could diminish gold's safe-haven demand.
GOLD LONG
Thread Guy stated that in likely outcomes of the US-Iran war (especially option two where Trump declares victory), Bitcoin will go up long-term, and in option three, it could go to many millions of dollars. He argues that outcomes bad for the US, such as loss of confidence in the dollar's reserve status, will lead to capital flowing into alternative assets like Bitcoin. Therefore, he implies a LONG position on Bitcoin as a hedge against dollar weakness and geopolitical turmoil. If the US achieves a decisive victory (e.g., successful ceasefire or ground invasion), confidence in the dollar might remain, reducing Bitcoin's appeal.
BTC LONG
22:30
Mar 19
Mar 19
BTC
WTI
▾
The speaker states "basically every outcome is really good for Bitcoin" and that he is personally positioned "75% BTC." He is "increasingly attracted to Bitcoin again" due to its performance in uncertainty. His geopolitical analysis concludes that multiple conflict scenarios threaten the US dollar's reserve status and American financial hegemony. In such a environment, capital seeks alternative, non-sovereign stores of value. Bitcoin serves as a prime hedge against the degradation of US financial dominance likely to result from the Iran conflict, irrespective of the specific outcome (other than a swift, total US victory). A swift and decisive US victory that reinforces dollar and American military supremacy, negating the need for alternative assets.
BTC LONG
The speaker states he was long crude oil, sold at 102, re-entered Brent at 100, and believes he "should be long oil, very long oil." He is frustrated the price isn't higher given the geopolitical setup. His game theory analysis suggests the most likely outcomes (US "declare victory" or full invasion) both involve prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or significant conflict, which should restrict supply and drive prices up. Markets are underpricing the severity and duration of the conflict and Iran's leverage. The price is "coiling" for a larger move, and the fundamental risk/reward is compelling despite recent stop-outs. Trump successfully negotiates a rapid de-escalation ("taco") that reopens the Strait without further conflict, alleviating supply fears.
WTI LONG
22:49
Mar 18
Mar 18
BTC
DBA
XOM
DXY
USO
▾
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Long-term hold for the asset, short-term intent to adjust portfolio allocation.
The speaker stated he is "overweight" Bitcoin (~75-80% of his capital), which he accumulated with a specific target. He now believes this over-concentration was his "worst trading mistake" because it limits his flexibility to raise cash and make other tactical trades (like the oil long). While he maintains a strong long-term belief in Bitcoin, the strategic allocation is flawed for an active trader. It forces a passive hold strategy during a period where he sees other high-conviction, non-correlated opportunities. He is considering reducing the allocation to ~50% to regain trading flexibility. NEUTRAL on the asset itself, but bearish on his own strategic positioning. The view is about portfolio construction, not Bitcoin's price direction. Bitcoin moons while he is under-allocated. His thesis on trading flexibility proves incorrect.
BTC NEUTRAL
The speaker relayed analyst Jeff Curry's point that agriculture is the best sector for value as it hasn't priced in the oil supply shock's ripple effects (e.g., fertilizer costs, supply chain impacts). The oil shock cascades through the global economy: natural gas to urea to fertilizers to food production. These second and third-order effects have not yet been discounted in agricultural commodity or equity prices. WATCH the agriculture complex (fertilizers, grains) for a catch-up trade as the oil crisis persists and its downstream effects become more apparent. A rapid resolution to the Iran conflict collapses the oil price and breaks the causal chain. Global demand destruction becomes so severe it crushes agricultural demand as well.
DBA WATCH
The speaker highlighted that Representative Josh Gottheimer, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, filed his first-ever purchase of Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock in early February, before the Iran conflict escalated. This implies possible insider knowledge of impending geopolitical events that would be bullish for major oil companies. The trade was made at all-time highs, suggesting high conviction in the forward outlook for oil majors. WATCH as a potential signal or proxy for the oil thesis, though not an explicit recommendation. The trade activity is noteworthy and disgusting from a policy standpoint, but informative. This is a single data point and could be coincidence. It does not constitute a fundamental analysis of Exxon Mobil.
XOM WATCH
The speaker extensively discussed the dollar's strength while other assets crumble. He endorsed a viewer's thesis that the US is in a better position due to energy independence, while Europe and Asia will face worse recessions from the oil shock, and central bank rate expectations don't yet reflect this divergence. The energy crisis emanating from the Middle East will disproportionately harm economies in Europe and Asia that are dependent on those energy flows. The US economy and equity market, while global, will feel the wealth effect first, but its domestic energy base provides a relative buffer. This differential economic impact should benefit the US Dollar. LONG the US Dollar as a relative safe-haven and due to expected monetary policy divergence (Fed potentially hiking less than ECB/BOE into a downturn). The US enters a severe recession regardless, forcing the Fed to cut rates aggressively. Or, the conflict de-escalates rapidly, removing the global risk-off bid for the dollar.
DXY LONG
Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
Short to medium-term (weeks to months), tied to the conflict's escalation timeline.
The speaker explicitly stated he re-entered a long crude oil (CL) futures position with size at an average of ~$94.50, adding aggressively on a breakout above $97. He frames this as "Newton re-enters with a lot," referencing a historical trading mistake but committing to the thesis. The fundamental thesis is that the Iran conflict has irreversibly escalated (bombing of major energy infrastructure, Marines deploying), making a peaceful resolution unlikely. The only viable US options are a humiliating withdrawal or a major escalation ("going for the jugular"), both of which are bullish for oil. The physical market is already screaming shortage, and futures must catch up. LONG because the geopolitical risk premium is still under-priced in the front-month futures, and the conflict is on an inevitable path to worsen, structurally removing supply. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough that re-opens the Strait of Hormuz quickly. Also, the trade is vulnerable to short-term "scam wicks" and headline volatility from Trump tweets.
USO LONG
23:38
Mar 17
Mar 17
DXY
GOLD
BTC
WTI
▾
Felix Jauvin
Head of Content at Block Works, host of Ford Guidance podcast
short-term to medium-term
Fejau states the U.S. is energy-independent due to shale boom, making it less affected by the Hormuz oil shock than Asia/Europe, and other central banks (BOE, ECB) are pricing in rate hikes while the Fed may cut. This relative economic strength and misguided monetary policy abroad should increase demand for U.S. dollars as a safe haven. Long the U.S. dollar (DXY) to capitalize on rally from flight to safety and currency mispricing. Rapid resolution of Hormuz crisis or shift away from dollar settlement for global energy.
DXY LONG
Felix Jauvin
Head of Content at Block Works, host of Ford Guidance podcast
short-term to medium-term
Fejau sold most of his gold because he expects the U.S. dollar to rally due to the oil shock dynamics. A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices as they are inversely correlated. Avoid gold as it is likely to underperform during a dollar rally driven by relative U.S. economic resilience. If the dollar weakens unexpectedly or gold benefits from heightened inflation or geopolitical fear beyond dollar effects.
GOLD AVOID
Fejau likes Bitcoin, noting it sold off earlier in the oil shock, has reduced seller pressure after leverage cleanup, and sees support from ETF inflows ("sailor stretch" reaching par). These factors could lead to a price breakout, but a compelling narrative is still missing for sustained momentum. Watch Bitcoin for potential long entry as technical and flow conditions improve, awaiting clearer catalysts. Prolonged oil shock spurs risk-off sentiment or ETF inflows stall without new narrative.
BTC WATCH
Thread Guy reopened a smaller, higher-leverage long position in crude oil at $93-94, citing the Strait of Hormuz closure persisting with no easy U.S. fixes (SPR release limited to 2M barrels/day vs. 20M shortfall). With the strait closed for weeks and difficulties in forming coalitions to escort ships, supply disruption could sustain or increase oil prices. Long crude oil to profit from ongoing supply shock and market pricing in longer-dated contracts. Quick diplomatic resolution reopening the strait or successful alternative supply routes.
WTI LONG
22:44
Mar 17
Mar 17
WTI
BTC
USD
▾
Thread Guy re-entered a long position in crude oil at around $93-94 per barrel with small size and high leverage (5x), stating he will not sell unless stopped out. The US-Iran conflict has produced zero positive de-escalating headlines, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for almost three weeks, and the resignation of Joe Kent from the National Counterterrorism Center signals internal dissent and potential for ground troop deployment. Long oil because the conflict is unlikely to end soon, and prolonged closure of the Strait will drive oil prices higher. The war ends quickly or the US successfully reopens the Strait of Hormuz, alleviating supply constraints.
WTI LONG
Bitcoin price action is positive, and Michael Saylor's Stretch product is creating structural demand by issuing yield instruments to fund Bitcoin purchases, with recent weekly buys exceeding $1 billion. Stretch allows Saylor to borrow at fixed 11.5% rates to buy Bitcoin, accelerating demand while market positioning is light with few sellers left, as noted by Tiki's analysis. Long Bitcoin because new marginal buyer (Stretch) emerges and seller exhaustion provides upward torque, reminiscent of past cycles. Stretch product fails due to prolonged Bitcoin bear market or loss of investor trust, reducing demand.
BTC LONG
Felix Jauvin
Guest, Head of Content at Blockworks, Host of Forward Guidance
short-term to medium-term
FJ is long the US dollar, citing it as his "big conviction," because the US is energy independent while other economies are more affected by the Hormuz closure. The oil shock disproportionately impacts Asian and European economies, likely causing recessions there, while the US remains relatively insulated, driving dollar demand as a safe haven; central banks in Europe are hiking rates, but the Fed may not, enhancing dollar attractiveness. Long USD as it will rally due to relative economic strength and flight to safety. US economy deteriorates faster than others, or the Iran conflict resolves quickly, reducing dollar demand.
USD LONG
22:47
Mar 16
Mar 16
USO
HYPE
BTC
MSTR
▾
1. FACT: Thread Guy closed his large oil long to avoid weekend headline risk but re-entered a small long position at $93.38 because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the conflict is unresolved. 2. BRIDGE: The market repeatedly prices in a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict based on political "fake news" and SPR releases, but physical supply routes remain constrained and ships are still being rerouted. 3. VERDICT: LONG. The fundamental supply disruption persists, creating an ongoing floor for crude prices despite administrative attempts to talk the market down. 4. KEY RISK: A sudden, verifiable diplomatic resolution, US/China military intervention that successfully secures the Strait, or aggressive SPR deployment.
USO LONG
1. FACT: Hyperliquid is generating $1B in annualized revenue with 99% margins and only 12 employees, capturing massive volume by offering 24/7 perpetual futures on crypto, equities, and commodities. 2. BRIDGE: By solving the weekend liquidity gap for retail traders (e.g., allowing users to trade a 30% move in oil on a Saturday during a geopolitical crisis), HYPE is structurally disrupting both centralized crypto exchanges and traditional brokerages. 3. VERDICT: LONG. It is emerging as a foundational piece of modern market infrastructure with a massive total addressable market, effectively commoditizing leverage. 4. KEY RISK: Severe regulatory crackdowns (KYC enforcement) or traditional finance incumbents successfully launching competitive 24/7 trading products.
HYPE LONG
1. FACT: Bitcoin is breaking out to $74,000 and showing significant outperformance against gold on the daily and hourly charts amid geopolitical strain. 2. BRIDGE: The market is increasingly treating Bitcoin as a superior, highly liquid safe-haven asset during times of global instability. The era of the "schizo rotator" is ending, and capital is concentrating in protocols with real product-market fit. 3. VERDICT: LONG. The asset is absorbing capital fleeing geopolitical risk and has exhausted its structural sellers following the previous bear market wipeout. 4. KEY RISK: Broad market deleveraging or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation that causes a rapid rotation back into risk-on equities.
BTC LONG
1. FACT: MicroStrategy has solved its execution slippage issues, effectively gaining 10% more buying power for its multi-billion dollar Bitcoin acquisitions. 2. BRIDGE: Eliminating slippage on massive block purchases directly translates to more Bitcoin acquired per share for MSTR equity holders, compounding the efficiency of their debt-financed acquisition strategy. 3. VERDICT: LONG. The improved execution mechanics strengthen MSTR's position as the premier institutional Bitcoin proxy and maximizes the yield of their treasury strategy. 4. KEY RISK: A sharp drawdown in Bitcoin prices triggering structural risks in MSTR's debt-heavy balance sheet.
MSTR LONG
22:41
Mar 16
Mar 16
USO
▾
"I entered because I couldn't understand why the market wasn't taking this seriously." The speaker identified a spread between market positioning (pricing oil as if the war would end quickly) and the escalating geopolitical reality. By using Twitter to gauge sentiment and headlines, he entered a long position when oil was undervalued due to market ignorance, planning to exit once the market priced in the seriousness of the conflict. LONG oil as a trade on sentiment correction, not fundamentals. The opportunity arises from the market's temporary inefficiency in processing geopolitical risks, which can be exploited through sentiment analysis. Fake headlines from authorities or media, geopolitical surprises (e.g., war resolution, military actions), leverage cascades, and volatility from order book manipulations (e.g., "Besson" in order books).
USO LONG
23:38
Mar 13
Mar 13
BTC
MSTR
IBIT
▾
The plumbing has changed. This hasn't existed in bear markets in the past. An instrument that was attracting new capital that was never interested in Bitcoin to the ecosystem to buy Bitcoin. Every dollar that they raise on STRC, they're buying Bitcoin. That's a continuous bid. The creation of liquid, high-yield (11.5%+) preferred equity products backed by Bitcoin allows massive pools of traditional fixed-income capital to indirectly fund Bitcoin purchases. Because these products use raised capital to buy spot BTC to back the yield, it creates a permanent, structural inflow into Bitcoin that is completely decoupled from retail sentiment. LONG BTC because the total addressable market for its indirect buyers just expanded by hundreds of trillions of dollars. A severe macro credit event could cause the preferred equity market to freeze, halting the continuous bid mechanism.
BTC LONG
The value of the common is a function of the underlying Bitcoin and in my opinion I think it's completely mispriced at the moment. They have 12x more Bitcoin than the next closest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin and the structure the instrument that they have in place relative to that it can grow. MicroStrategy is issuing perpetual preferred equity to buy Bitcoin. Because this preferred equity has no debt maturity or call risk, the common stock (MSTR) acts as a highly amplified, low-liquidation-risk call option on Bitcoin. As the preferred equity market scales, MSTR's common stock captures all the excess return and volatility without the traditional risks of convertible debt covenants. LONG MSTR as it holds a monopolistic structural moat in Bitcoin treasury management and is fundamentally undervalued relative to its new capital accumulation engine. If Bitcoin's annualized growth rate falls below the threshold required to pay the preferred dividends (approx 1.8%), the capital structure could face pressure, leading to dilution or forced selling.
MSTR LONG
There are people that won't even touch IBIT until it becomes three years old. They have a filter on their screener and it says can't touch got to be greater than three years old. Typically at the three-year mark there's a hockey stick J pattern. Massive institutional pools of capital, such as the $70 billion CalPERS bond portfolio, operate on strict internal mandates that prohibit investing in any fund without a 3-year track record. Once IBIT crosses this chronological threshold, a predictable, forced wave of institutional capital will automatically unlock and flow into the ETF. LONG IBIT to front-run the massive institutional inflows that will mechanically trigger when the ETF hits its 3-year anniversary. The anticipated institutional capital may opt for alternative Bitcoin exposure (like preferred equity yield products) instead of the spot ETF, muting the expected J-curve effect.
IBIT LONG
21:57
Mar 13
Mar 13
USO
BTC
MSTR
SPY
QQQ
▾
"There is a significant spread right now on how people are positioned in the market holding risk assets versus how out of control things have gotten in the Middle East between Trump and Iran." The administration is allegedly manipulating oil order books and using fake headlines to suppress prices and project control. However, with the US sending 2,500 Marines to the region and prediction markets showing a 63% chance of boots on the ground, the reality of the supply shock will eventually overpower the artificial market suppression, causing oil prices to spike to reflect the true geopolitical risk. LONG because the market is offsides and currently failing to price in the severe escalation of the conflict. The US government successfully brokers a sudden peace deal, a US-escorted ship safely passes through the Strait of Hormuz, or strict price controls are implemented on crude.
USO LONG
"These instruments are targeting that entire market... people that would never buy Bitcoin ever. Like they literally can't. It's just a mandate." By offering high-yield (11-12%+), liquid preferred equity instruments backed by Bitcoin, treasury companies are tapping into the massive $200-$300 trillion global fixed-income market (pensions, insurance companies). As these traditional institutions buy the preferred equity for the yield, the issuing companies use that capital to buy spot Bitcoin. This creates a massive, continuous structural bid that drives up BTC prices regardless of retail sentiment. LONG because the plumbing of the market has changed, bringing unprecedented institutional capital inflows into the asset that were previously sidelined. A systemic collapse in the broader global credit markets, or a catastrophic drop in Bitcoin's price that forces treasury companies to liquidate their holdings to cover dividends.
BTC LONG
"The value of the common is a function of the underlying Bitcoin and in my opinion I think it's completely mispriced at the moment... they've got 12x more Bitcoin than the next closest publicly traded holder." MicroStrategy is successfully issuing billions in preferred equity to buy more Bitcoin without increasing its debt leverage ratio. Because the preferred equity absorbs the low-volatility aspect of the asset, the excess risk and return are amplified and delivered directly to the common stock. As the total addressable market for their yield product expands, the common equity will disproportionately benefit from the underlying Bitcoin accumulation. LONG because the company's unique capital structure and massive Bitcoin moat make it perfectly positioned to capture value from the new fixed-income inflows. Regulatory intervention regarding their preferred equity issuance, or an inability to maintain the dividend yield if Bitcoin's annualized growth falls below the required 1.8% threshold.
MSTR LONG
"Everyone is positioned out of fear of missing the big green reversal candle, but each day we don't get it, we slowly capitulate lower." Market participants are holding onto risk assets despite deteriorating technicals and severe geopolitical escalations because they believe the government will intervene to save the market. If the reality of the Middle East conflict (e.g., boots on the ground, massive oil supply chain disruptions) breaks through this artificial complacency, equities will face a harsh and rapid deleveraging as the market is forced to reprice the risk. AVOID because the risk/reward is skewed negatively due to unpriced geopolitical tail risks and a reliance on government market manipulation. The conflict is resolved quickly without further escalation, leading to a massive relief rally and a return to a low-volatility bull market.
SPY AVOID
QQQ AVOID
22:28
Mar 12
Mar 12
USO
MSTR
IBIT
SPY
QQQ
▾
I kind of want to sell my long. We are sitting at $95 on crude and they have sort of already gone scorched earth. The risk you run now continuing to stay long oil at this spot is that at any moment Trump will just say the war is over. The geopolitical risk premium of the Strait of Hormuz closure is already heavily priced into the market near $100 per barrel. Because the market is trading purely on political posturing rather than physical supply realities, any verbal de-escalation or ceasefire announcement from the US administration will trigger an immediate and violent sell-off in oil futures. NEUTRAL. The risk/reward for holding long oil positions is no longer favorable at these elevated levels due to the high probability of sudden, headline-driven downside reversals. Iran successfully destroys a US commercial or military vessel, forcing a direct ground war and sending oil significantly higher.
USO NEUTRAL
This is Sailor's new financial alchemy product. 4,000 Bitcoin today. $280 million today is insane. If it is trading above 100 then sellers issue new STRC shares and as soon as he collects the USD turns around to buy BTC. MicroStrategy is utilizing at-the-market share issuance at a premium to continuously purchase Bitcoin. This creates a reflexive, price-agnostic bid in the crypto market, structurally driving up the price of the underlying asset while simultaneously inflating the company's net asset value. LONG. The continuous capital market operations by MicroStrategy provide a relentless structural tailwind for Bitcoin and related proxy equities. The premium to NAV collapses or a broader market liquidity shock forces a deleveraging event, drawing comparisons to historical crypto structural failures.
MSTR LONG
IBIT LONG
SPY down 1.5, Q's down 1.7. Software ETF try to be green today. That thing's off a cliff. SPY legit closed 666. Not great. The combination of a massive oil supply shock and an open-ended geopolitical conflict creates a stagflationary environment. This macro backdrop is highly toxic for broad equities, particularly high-multiple software and technology stocks that rely on stable interest rates and strong corporate spending. SHORT. Major indices and software sectors will continue to face downward pressure as energy costs rise and geopolitical uncertainty paralyzes market confidence. The Federal Reserve caves to political pressure and implements emergency rate cuts, sparking a massive liquidity-driven rally that squeezes short positions.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
IGV SHORT
13:04
Mar 12
Mar 12
USO
XLE
CF
NTR
DOW
▾
Trump posted that the United States makes a lot of money when oil prices go up, and his primary focus is stopping Iran, not lowering oil prices. The US administration is explicitly greenlighting higher oil prices as an acceptable, and even financially beneficial, byproduct of military action. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and the Energy Secretary confirming operations will take weeks, global energy supply is severely bottlenecked without government intervention to suppress prices. LONG. The geopolitical risk premium on crude oil and domestic energy producers will continue to expand as long as the administration prioritizes military objectives over energy cost control. A sudden diplomatic resolution or an unexpected, rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would collapse the geopolitical premium on oil.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
Agricultural chemicals are up 7% today. Dow Inc is up 5%, LyondellBasell is up 4%. Half of global LNG tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. Natural gas is a primary feedstock for agricultural chemicals and fertilizers. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a massive supply shock for global LNG. North American chemical and fertilizer producers benefit directly from this disruption as global competitors face input shortages and skyrocketing freight rates. LONG. These companies act as a high-beta derivative play on the Middle East energy and logistics disruption, capturing market share and pricing power. If the Strait opens faster than expected, the LNG supply shock reverses, crushing the premium currently priced into these chemical stocks.
CF LONG
NTR LONG
DOW LONG
LYB LONG
JetBlue is down 4%, American Airlines down 3%. The host notes to be careful with airlines because they are down so much. Airlines are highly sensitive to jet fuel prices. With crude oil ripping due to the Middle East conflict and the US government showing no urgency to suppress energy costs, airline operating margins will be severely compressed for the duration of the conflict. AVOID. The macro environment is fundamentally hostile to airline profitability until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and global oil prices stabilize. Oil prices unexpectedly crash, or airlines successfully pass 100 percent of the fuel cost increases onto consumers without causing demand destruction.
JBLU AVOID
AAL AVOID
Bitcoin is holding on impressively because there is legitimately one Bitcoin buyer and he is a complete lunatic, referring to Michael Saylor. Despite a broader market gap down and geopolitical panic, relentless corporate buying from MicroStrategy is creating an artificial price floor and relative strength for Bitcoin during a macro shock. WATCH. The asset is showing resilience, but its price action is heavily reliant on a single massive corporate buyer rather than broad, organic market demand. If MicroStrategy pauses its buying program or is forced to liquidate due to unforeseen pressures, the artificial floor vanishes, exposing Bitcoin to the broader macro risk-off environment.
BTC WATCH
MSTR WATCH
02:27
Mar 12
Mar 12
USO
XLE
GLD
XME
PICK
▾
We're currently losing 20 million a day because this straight is closed. And so there's like 18 million barrels of delta just getting lost... only 2 million barrels per day can hit the market from the reserves. The headline announcement of a 400 million barrel SPR release is a mathematical illusion. Because the oil is stored in salt caverns, extracting more than 2 million barrels a day risks destroying the storage infrastructure. This leaves a structural deficit of 18 million barrels a day that cannot be plugged by reserves, forcing the physical price of oil and oil-producing equities higher until demand is destroyed. Long crude oil proxies and energy sector equities to capture the severe supply-demand mismatch. The US government implements extreme market interventions such as strict price caps, or a sudden diplomatic breakthrough reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
Ever since 2022, commodity prices spike, these emerging markets get money. What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets. Historically, when oil prices spiked, Middle Eastern producers recycled their windfall profits into US Treasuries, acting as a shock absorber for the US economy. Following the freezing of Russian central bank assets, sovereign nations no longer trust US dollar-denominated assets. Therefore, any spike in energy prices will directly translate into sovereign buying of gold. Long gold as it has replaced US Treasuries as the primary vehicle for petrodollar recycling in a multipolar world. A rapid de-escalation of global conflicts restores faith in the US dollar hegemony, slowing the pace of sovereign gold accumulation.
GLD LONG
We're moving from that world that was defined in 2014 to 2024... into a regime change. Own the hard assets, own the halos, heavy asset, low obsolescence. The global economy is shifting away from the asset-light, software-driven boom of the last decade. Geopolitical fracturing and supply chain vulnerabilities are forcing a global re-industrialization. This requires massive amounts of physical materials, structurally repricing industrial metals and mining companies higher due to years of underinvestment in the old economy. Long industrial metals and mining equities that control scarce, hard-to-replicate physical assets. A severe global recession driven by high energy costs destroys industrial demand, offsetting the supply constraints.
XME LONG
PICK LONG
You've disrupted global supply chains. This is not just a disruption oil. It's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The better trade is probably Tulip King, chemicals, fertilizer. The Middle East is a massive global exporter of petrochemicals and fertilizers. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, these critical agricultural and industrial inputs are trapped. This supply shock will force global buyers to source from North American and Western producers, driving up their margins and market share. Long Western fertilizer and agricultural chemical producers who are insulated from the Middle East transit routes. Agricultural demand drops due to broader economic stress, or alternative supply chains adapt faster than expected.
MOS LONG
NTR LONG
CF LONG
23:12
Mar 11
Mar 11
USO
BTC
GLD
▾
Every day that passes, we're in the whole 18 million barrels every single day. And so even though you agree to release the oil, you can't just like throw 400 million into the atmosphere... you can only release like two a day. The market is underestimating the physical bottleneck of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Even with a massive 400 million barrel release authorized, the daily flow rate cannot offset the 18 to 20 million barrels lost from the Strait of Hormuz closure, guaranteeing a structural supply deficit. LONG USO as the physical shortage of oil will force prices higher until demand destruction occurs. The US government could implement price controls or aggressively intervene in futures markets to cap prices for political reasons.
USO LONG
Are you going to buy more US assets after what just happened? The US just got you into this cross war that nobody asked for. Are you going to fire into US assets or are you going to just like long gold and Bitcoin? Similar to gold, sovereign nations and large pools of capital in emerging markets will seek out decentralized, censorship-resistant assets to protect their wealth from US foreign policy decisions and fiat debasement. LONG BTC as a geopolitical hedge and alternative store of value for nations looking to bypass the US dollar system. Coordinated global regulatory crackdowns on digital assets or a sharp rise in real yields making non-yielding assets less attractive.
BTC LONG
Ever since 2022, commodity prices spike, these emerging markets get money. What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets. Because the US and Europe froze Russian central bank assets, other commodity-producing nations no longer trust US Treasuries as a safe haven. As oil prices rise, these nations will recycle their excess capital into gold instead of US debt. LONG GLD as geopolitical fragmentation and sanctions risk drive structural sovereign demand for non-dollar reserve assets. A sudden de-escalation of global conflicts or a change in US foreign policy that restores trust in the dollar system.
GLD LONG
02:34
Mar 11
Mar 11
USO
XOM
IGV
ADBE
CRM
▾
"Exxon Company has evacuated non-essential employees from Middle East operations... UAE's largest oil refinery has shut down after a drone attack." When major corporations like Exxon evacuate personnel and shipping giants like Maersk suspend bookings, it confirms that physical supply chain destruction is actively occurring. This disruption to critical oil infrastructure and transport routes (Strait of Hormuz) will squeeze global oil supply, driving up crude prices and benefiting major oil producers operating outside the immediate blast radius. LONG. The physical energy market is tightening due to war, making oil and major energy equities a direct hedge against geopolitical escalation. Sudden de-escalation, political intervention, or ceasefire agreements could cause a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium currently pricing into oil.
USO LONG
XOM LONG
"IGV Software kind of getting crushed today... Adobe's down 3.5 right now. Apple down one. Full retrace. Salesforce getting crushed." High-multiple software stocks are showing significant relative weakness and heavy selling pressure at the market open, despite broader market indices remaining relatively flat. This indicates a deliberate sector rotation by institutions away from enterprise software amid rising geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. AVOID. The price action is highly negative, suggesting further downside momentum and a lack of near-term buyers for enterprise software names. A sudden macro risk-on rally or complacency bounce could cause heavily shorted or sold-off tech names to squeeze higher unexpectedly.
IGV AVOID
ADBE AVOID
CRM AVOID
"You really don't want to lose the 70 level back... if we lose it we want to reclaim it quick." Bitcoin is testing a major psychological and technical support level at $70,000. The asset's ability to absorb selling pressure here dictates the near-term trend; holding it signals underlying strength for a leg higher, while losing it without a rapid reclaim opens the door to a deeper technical correction. WATCH. Wait for confirmation of a strong hold above $70k or a quick reclaim before adding exposure to avoid getting chopped out. Whipsaw price action around the $70k level could trigger stop-losses in both directions before a clear directional trend emerges.
BTC WATCH
"Meta has acquired Mulle, a viral social network sign for AI agents... Matt PRD is gonna be working under Alexander Wang at Meta." Meta is aggressively acquiring niche AI startups and top-tier talent to build out its AI agent infrastructure. This continuous investment strengthens Meta's moat in consumer AI applications and social network integration, driving long-term platform value and user engagement. LONG. Meta's strategic acquisitions in the AI space solidify its leadership and future monetization potential against competitors. Regulatory scrutiny over AI acquisitions or failure to integrate the newly acquired technology effectively into the core platform.
META LONG
"My only two positions right now that aren't Bitcoin is an oil long... and Palantir, which has done very well from like 140." In a macro environment dominated by escalating global conflicts, supply chain destruction, and the need for advanced military logistics, data analytics platforms like Palantir become increasingly critical to government and defense operations, ensuring sticky revenue and growth. LONG. The ongoing geopolitical tailwinds for defense tech provide a strong fundamental backdrop for Palantir's continued outperformance. Short-term technical pullbacks or broad market sell-offs in high-valuation tech could drag the stock down temporarily despite strong fundamentals.
PLTR LONG
01:15
Mar 11
Mar 11
USO
CF
SHW
BLDR
▾
Iran is deploying mines in the straight... The Treasury Department is absolutely selling crude deltas in the market. The US government is using paper market interventions (selling futures) and strategic headlines to suppress oil prices, creating a massive disconnect with the physical market. Because the Strait of Hormuz is physically blocked by sea mines, actual oil supply is choked off. Paper manipulation cannot indefinitely hide physical shortages, leading to an inevitable price spike. LONG. The artificial suppression of oil prices provides a discounted entry point before the reality of physical supply shortages forces the market higher. The US successfully brokers a sudden ceasefire or forces a regime change that immediately reopens the Strait.
USO LONG
These are the things I would own now. Fuel, fertilizer, PVC pipes, paint, roofing material. I see the price of everything going up, but the things that are most closely connected with the hydrocarbon value chain are going to see the biggest increases. Crude oil is the foundational raw material for petrochemicals, agricultural fertilizers, and construction materials like PVC and paint. If oil shipments remain blocked, the input costs for these downstream products will skyrocket. Companies that manufacture or distribute these materials will experience massive pricing power and inventory value appreciation. LONG. Equities tied to fertilizers and hydrocarbon-heavy building materials serve as a leveraged, secondary play on a sustained global oil supply shock. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East normalizes oil flows, crashing the input costs and speculative premium on these materials.
CF LONG
SHW LONG
BLDR LONG
23:07
Mar 10
Mar 10
HYPE
SPY
QQQ
USO
▾
"I expressed the trade by buying equities and by buying hyperliquid into the dip... let me use this as a chance to enter them basically add risk at better levels." Geopolitical flare-ups often cause knee-jerk sell-offs in broad equities and crypto as market participants de-risk. Because the underlying oil supply isn't actually disrupted and the US will keep sea lanes open, the macro panic is transient. This creates a temporary mispricing in risk assets, allowing investors to accumulate long-term bags at a discount. LONG. Use geopolitical panic as a liquidity event to accumulate high-conviction risk assets that are selling off in sympathy with the news cycle. A severe, unexpected escalation (e.g., a nuclear event or actual prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz) that genuinely crashes the global economy and causes a sustained bear market in risk assets.
HYPE LONG
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
"Absent this conflict, it's worth 50 bucks a barrel. There's too much oil... I would sell like deck 26 futures expiring October and just let it roll down as the market kind of succumbs to over supply again." The oil market is currently pricing in a massive geopolitical risk premium due to fears of the Strait of Hormuz closing. However, fundamentally, the world is facing a severe supply glut. Once the immediate threat dissipates or regime change occurs in Iran, the risk premium will evaporate, and prices will mean-revert to their fundamental fair value of ~$50/bbl. SHORT. However, the speaker explicitly warns against naked shorting prompt futures due to unbounded upside risk during active conflicts. The optimal execution is selling options or shorting deferred contracts once the immediate volatility settles. A rogue actor supplies Iran with a nuclear weapon, or physical oil fields and critical production infrastructure are successfully destroyed, causing a true, long-lasting global supply deficit.
USO SHORT
22:33
Mar 10
Mar 10
CF
SHW
HD
HYPE
COIN
▾
"These are the things I would own now. Fuel, fertilizer, PVC pipes, paint, roofing material. I see the price of everything going up... You may not be able to restock some of these items literally within weeks or months." If skyrocketing oil prices force the US government to implement 1970s-style price controls to fight inflation, it will destroy supply chains and create massive shortages in physical goods. Companies that produce or stockpile hard assets and building materials will see immense pricing power in gray markets or when controls eventually lift. LONG producers of fertilizer, chemicals, and building materials as a hedge against price controls and shortages. The war ends quickly, oil prices drop, and no price controls are implemented, leaving these cyclical stocks vulnerable to normal macroeconomic slowing.
CF LONG
SHW LONG
HD LONG
"Oil has become the momentum trade of choice on Hyperl, the crypto exchange fast emerging as a roundthe-clock venue for leverage commodity bets... basically been sustaining a billion dollars of volume over 24 hours." Extreme volatility in traditional commodities combined with the limitations of traditional market hours drives traders to 24/7 decentralized platforms. This massive influx of volume generates significant fee revenue and user acquisition for on-chain perpetual exchanges. LONG HYPE as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical volatility driving on-chain derivatives volume. Volatility subsides, traders return to traditional brokers, or regulatory actions target decentralized perpetual exchanges.
HYPE LONG
"These are Goldilocks macro conditions for stable coins. Stable coins benefit from higher nominal rates, higher inflation, larger debt to GDP ratios, and wider credit spreads." A prolonged conflict that drives inflation and keeps interest rates high creates a perfect environment for stablecoin issuers, who earn high yields on their fiat reserves. Coinbase, as a key partner in the USDC consortium, directly benefits from this structural interest income. LONG COIN as a proxy for the profitability of stablecoins in a high-rate, high-inflation wartime economy. The Fed aggressively cuts rates, reducing the yield earned on stablecoin reserves, or new stablecoin regulations restrict their growth.
COIN LONG
"Fundamentally oil, the oil market is so overs supplied that you're kind of staring down a COVID like glut were it not for this geopolitical risk. So, I think fair value for crude oil is around 50 bucks." The current elevated price of oil is entirely propped up by the geopolitical risk premium of the Strait of Hormuz closing. Once this conflict resolves or the market realizes the US military can guarantee safe transit, the massive fundamental oversupply will drag prices back down to their true fair value. SHORT crude oil (via options or waiting for the dust to settle, avoiding naked short futures due to unbounded headline risk). The conflict escalates, the strait remains closed for months, or Iran successfully destroys global supply infrastructure, sending oil to $150+.
USO SHORT
"I express the trade by buying other stuff that I like when it's selling off for what I consider to be ridiculous, stupid, transient reasons." Geopolitical shocks often cause knee-jerk, indiscriminate sell-offs in broad equities and crypto. If the oil threat is overstated and the US military can maintain order, these risk assets are mispriced and will mean-revert higher once the panic subsides. LONG broad market risk assets on geopolitical dips. The geopolitical situation actually deteriorates into a global economic crisis, causing a sustained bear market in risk assets.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
"If there was ever a time for you to say, 'Wow, Bitcoin actually has a purpose in this world,' it is during a global war. I mean, that's just objectively the answer here." In a scenario involving global conflict, potential government price controls, inflation, and fiat debasement to fund wars, a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value becomes highly attractive to capital seeking safety outside the traditional financial system. LONG BTC as a geopolitical safe haven and hedge against wartime inflation. A severe liquidity shock causes all assets, including Bitcoin, to sell off as investors dash for US dollars to cover margin calls.
BTC LONG
22:45
Mar 09
Mar 09
AMZN
USO
UNG
MSFT
▾
Amazon put out press releases about their data centers being impacted. OpenAI was already like the white whale for Microsoft, it's already losing tons of money. Guess what happens if the cost of energy goes parabolic. Those data centers become even less economic. AI data centers are highly energy-intensive. If global oil and natural gas prices spike due to the Middle East conflict, the operating costs for hyperscalers will explode, destroying the already fragile unit economics of their massive AI investments. AVOID AMZN and MSFT as their massive AI infrastructure capex is highly vulnerable to an impending global energy shock. Energy prices remain suppressed by government intervention, or tech companies secure long-term, fixed-rate nuclear/renewable energy contracts that insulate them from fossil fuel spikes.
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
Kuwait right now, which is one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing no oil. Iraq, one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing almost no oil. Saudi Arabia, their production is down significantly. The physical oil market has lost massive production capacity due to infrastructure attacks, but financial markets are artificially suppressing the price via government intervention and shorting futures. Eventually, physical reality will force either a massive price spike to balance demand or result in global shortages. LONG USO as the physical supply deficit will ultimately overwhelm paper market manipulation. The US government successfully caps prices indefinitely through unprecedented non-market interventions, or a sudden, unexpected peace agreement is reached.
USO LONG
Russ Lefon which provides 20% of the world's natural gas just from Qatar has already undergone force majeure they've already shut down. A massive chunk of the global natural gas supply is offline and requires weeks to restart even if peace is declared today. This creates an immediate physical shortage that will drive up the value of natural gas globally, impacting everything from heating to fertilizer production. LONG UNG to capture the severe supply shock in the natural gas market. Mild global weather reduces natural gas demand, or alternative global suppliers ramp up production faster than expected to fill the void.
UNG LONG
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