LIVE: Bittensor (TAO) Founder Interview - IRAN vs USA Continues, TAO is RIPPING, Crypto is BACK!?
Speakers
Thread Guy -- Host
— crypto podcast host (aka Red / The Red Guy)
Summary
- Thread Guy is long TAO (Bittensor) as a short-term momentum trade, primarily based on influential promotion by Jason Calacanis and its price action, despite openly admitting he doesn't fully understand the project.
- Const provides a foundational thesis for TAO, describing it as a decentralized network that uses monetary incentives (TAO emissions) to reward subnets for performing useful work (e.g., AI model training, inference, coding), creating a competitive, permissionless market for intelligence.
- Const is extremely bullish on TAO's long-term potential, suggesting a scenario where it could appreciate 200x over 5-10 years as the ecosystem matures and proves its value against centralized AI labs.
- Thread Guy analyzes the oil market as being entirely driven by Trump administration narratives regarding the Iran conflict, observing a pattern of escalating headlines followed by "taco" (de-escalation) announcements that move prices, but with diminishing market impact each time.
- He outlines three potential geopolitical outcomes: 1) US ground invasion (bullish oil), 2) a genuine deal is reached (bearish oil), or 3) diminishing returns on Trump's rhetoric lead to a loss of market trust and a violent reversal (bullish oil).
- Thread Guy argues that "buy the dip" is a dangerous strategy in the current macro environment, citing deep uncertainty from geopolitics and AI disruption, and advises against swimming against the tide of Trump's market-influencing statements.
- The discussion highlights a broader concern about market manipulation, with Thread Guy and cited sources (e.g., Peter Brandt) noting suspicious, large oil futures trades appearing just before major Trump policy announcements.
- Const positions crypto (and TAO) as a "freedom technology", contrasting it with centralized, opaque AI development, and argues that Bit Tensor's open, participatory model is the proper womb for aligned artificial intelligence.
Trade Ideas
Const states his "base case" is that TAO could go 200x in 5 to 10 years, valuing it as a foundational protocol for decentralized intelligence. He believes Bit Tensor's model of using monetary incentives to mine intelligence is a revolutionary abstraction, comparable to Bitcoin's impact. As subnets create real economic value and demand for TAO grows, the token should appreciate significantly over a long period. The direction is LONG as a long-term, high-conviction bet on the protocol's vision and technological paradigm, not a short-term trade. The technology is complex and must compete with well-funded, centralized AI labs; execution risks, lack of adoption, or failure of subnets to generate sustainable value could break the thesis.
Thread Guy details how the oil market is reacting with decreasing magnitude to successive Trump administration headlines about de-escalation with Iran, culminating in a only a 5% drop on a major "ceasefire" report. He argues that trading oil has become equivalent to trading Trump's approval rating or the credibility of his announcements, not underlying fundamentals. The "law of diminishing tacos" means this tool for suppressing price is losing efficacy, creating an unpredictable and potentially violent setup. The direction is AVOID because the primary market driver (Trump's narrative) is becoming unreliable and the risk/reward is poor; attempting to trade based on geopolitical fundamentals is a losing battle against these forces. An actual, verified geopolitical escalation (e.g., ground invasion) could cause oil to spike violently, making avoidance a missed opportunity.
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This Thread Guy video, published March 24, 2026, features Thread Guy discussing TAO, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Thread Guy · Tickers: TAO, WTI