Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado speaks at CERAWeek in Houston — 3/24/2026

Summary

• Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves (over 300 billion barrels) and seventh-largest natural gas reserves, with critical minerals offering broad resource potential.
• Current oil production is ~1 million barrels per day (bpd), down from historical highs, but with investment, could realistically exceed 5 million bpd.
• Achieving this requires an estimated $150 billion in investment over the next 10 years, targeting private capital with full privatization of the oil and gas sector.
• Proposed institutional framework includes long-term contracts (25 years, renewable for another 25), 20% royalties, 34% income tax linked to oil prices, international arbitration, and transparency to reduce country risk premium from ~25% to investable levels.
• State-owned PDVSA is bankrupt and will be dramatically reduced in size, with operations privatized from upstream to downstream.
• Rule of law is currently ranked last globally (143rd out of 143), but plans involve rebuilding institutions from scratch using modern technology like AI, aiming for top regional standing.
• Beyond energy, opportunities exist in minerals, hydroelectric power, tourism, telecom, fintech, and near-shoring, with a total estimated opportunity of $1.7 trillion across 12 sectors.
• Confidence in an orderly democratic transition stems from strong popular mandate (90% support for change), with free elections expected within ~9 months per U.S. roadmap.
• Market implication: Successful opening could significantly increase global oil supply, attract capital to energy and mining, and reshape investment flows in the Western Hemisphere.
• Key risks: Political stability, execution of reforms, legacy of corruption, and dependence on continued U.S. administration support.