Actually, the Economy is Terrible | WAYT?
Speakers
Summary
- Josh Brown argues the U.S. economy is "terrible" because it is deteriorating, citing downward revisions to GDP growth (from ~5% to 0.7%), weak labor reports, and rising credit issues in private credit.
- Michael Batnick disagrees, characterizing the economy as "mid" or "fine," noting strong jobless claims and that credit quality is mostly fine, though he acknowledges pockets of weakness.
- The housing market is described as "frozen solid," with 30-year mortgage rates stuck above 6%, a historic imbalance of sellers to buyers (46.3% more sellers), and homebuilder Lennar offering sales incentives at 14% of the sales price—a level last seen in 2010.
- Retail trading activity has collapsed from its peak (15% of single-stock volume in Dec '25 to much lower), impacting Robinhood (HOOD); zero-DTE option volume is near a one-year low as "the gamblers run out of money."
- Private credit, especially in private BDCs, faces redemption pressures and scrutiny. Apollo's (APO) stock decline is attributed to dashed growth expectations from retail fundraising, not necessarily underlying credit quality, though the sector faces a "slow bleed."
- Software and AI-related stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Alphabet, Salesforce) are in a sustained sell-off, breaking technical support as they are used as a "source of funds" in a rotating market.
- College graduate unemployment is at a record high relative to non-college grads, with computer science and engineering majors seeing 7-8% unemployment, which Josh ties to AI tools replacing entry-level tasks.
- Semiconductor stocks (Samsung, SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital) have surged dramatically, leading Josh to call it "this year's bubble" and warn of a potential sharp reversal.
Trade Ideas
Josh Brown states he will buy Microsoft aggressively, but only on a specific price action signal: "I need a down 4% day that closes up 2%. When that happens, I'll buy it." The stock has been in a persistent downtrend with consecutive red candles, and such a reversal pattern would indicate a potential bounce. He is waiting for that specific entry signal to go long, implying the current downtrend is not yet finished and a defined reversal is needed. The stock may not produce that specific price action and could continue to decline without a bounce.
Josh Brown says to "lay off Alphabet here," describing its chart as breaking below previous support and being in "no man's land technically." The stock is being used as a source of funds in the market rotation, and sellers are in control of the price action. Avoid the stock until the technical picture improves or the selling pressure abates. The stock could rebound if the broader market turns or if AI-related sentiment improves unexpectedly.
Josh Brown calls the semiconductor stock rally "this year's bubble" and says it will get "real ugly for the people that buy it today," advising to "sell before everybody else does." These stocks have had a massive, parabolic run-up (e.g., "Western Digital is so hot right now") and are exhibiting bubble-like characteristics. Avoid buying at current levels and consider selling existing positions to avoid a potential sharp correction. The bubble could continue to inflate for longer than expected, leading to further gains for those who remain invested.
Up Next
This The Compound News video, published March 24, 2026, features Josh Brown discussing MSFT, GOOGL, MU, WDC, SAMSUNG. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Josh Brown · Tickers: MSFT, GOOGL, MU, WDC, SAMSUNG