LIVE: US vs IRAN War CONTINUES! Oil is BACK UP... Rory Johnston Interview TODAY

Summary

• Thread Guy declares a renewed fundamental interest in the cryptocurrency asset class after a multi-month bearish period, citing improved price action and structure.
• Guest Rory Johnston outlines a severe physical oil shortage crisis due to the Iran conflict, estimating a loss of over 400 million barrels of production already, potentially rising to 800 million-1 billion barrels even with an optimistic resolution.
• Johnston explains the crisis manifests in extreme market "backwardation" (spot prices far above futures), with dated Brent hitting a nominal all-time high of ~$144/barrel, creating massive incentives to pull oil from storage.
• The core bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz, with transit reduced from ~130 ships/day to single digits, primarily Iranian vessels. Reopening is tied to geopolitical negotiations, not market announcements.
• Johnston's base case is the Trump administration concedes to end the war, leaving Iran with functional control of the Strait, fundamentally altering Middle East geopolitics and energy security for years.
• The oil futures market is portrayed as "irrationally optimistic," pricing a swift resolution, while physical markets signal a "five-alarm fire." This disconnect creates high volatility and traps for inexperienced traders.
• Thread Guy details a high-conviction but stopped-out trade in Zcash (ZEC), citing manipulation-like price action and being forced out by geopolitical ceasefire headlines he could not price in.
• Russian oil export infrastructure is under sustained Ukrainian attack, with Reuters reporting up to 40% capacity offline, adding a pro-cyclical supply shock on top of the Middle East crisis.
• The conflict has made Russia a major beneficiary via higher prices and relaxed sanctions, a dynamic Ukraine is actively countering through drone strikes on export terminals.