Calvin Froedge

We're talking about Kuwait right now, which is one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing no oil. Iraq, one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing almost no oil. Government headlines and paper market manipulation (shorting futures, SPR releases) cannot fix physical supply chain destruction. With 75-95% of Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupted, the physical shortage will force oil prices significantly higher regardless of political rhetoric. LONG. The market is mispricing the severity of the physical supply shock due to government intervention headlines. The US government implements extreme price controls or a wartime command economy, capping upside for investors despite physical shortages.

Russ Lefon which provides 20% of the world's natural gas just from Qatar has already undergone force majeure they've already shut down. A massive chunk of the global natural gas supply is offline and requires weeks to restart even if peace is declared today. This creates an immediate physical shortage that will drive up the value of natural gas globally, impacting everything from heating to fertilizer production. LONG UNG to capture the severe supply shock in the natural gas market. Mild global weather reduces natural gas demand, or alternative global suppliers ramp up production faster than expected to fill the void.

50% of the world's fertilizer either comes from the Middle East or is derived from feed stock or energy from the Middle East. The estimate right now is that up to 50% of the entire ammonia ammonium nitrate fertilizer market could be offline. With half of the global fertilizer supply suddenly removed from the market due to natural gas and infrastructure disruptions in the Middle East, Western and non-conflict-zone fertilizer producers will see massive pricing power and demand surges ahead of the spring planting season. LONG. A 50% supply shock in a non-substitutable agricultural necessity guarantees massive margin expansion for surviving producers. The conflict resolves faster than expected, bringing Middle Eastern natural gas and ammonia production back online before the planting season.

50% of the world's fertilizer either comes from the Middle East or is derived from feed stock or energy from the Middle East. The estimate right now is that up to 50% of the entire ammonia ammonium nitrate fertilizer market could be offline. With half of the global fertilizer supply suddenly removed from the market due to natural gas and infrastructure disruptions in the Middle East, Western and non-conflict-zone fertilizer producers will see massive pricing power and demand surges ahead of the spring planting season. LONG. A 50% supply shock in a non-substitutable agricultural necessity guarantees massive margin expansion for surviving producers. The conflict resolves faster than expected, bringing Middle Eastern natural gas and ammonia production back online before the planting season.

50% of the world's fertilizer either comes from the Middle East or is derived from feed stock or energy from the Middle East. The estimate right now is that up to 50% of the entire ammonia ammonium nitrate fertilizer market could be offline. With half of the global fertilizer supply suddenly removed from the market due to natural gas and infrastructure disruptions in the Middle East, Western and non-conflict-zone fertilizer producers will see massive pricing power and demand surges ahead of the spring planting season. LONG. A 50% supply shock in a non-substitutable agricultural necessity guarantees massive margin expansion for surviving producers. The conflict resolves faster than expected, bringing Middle Eastern natural gas and ammonia production back online before the planting season.

We're talking about Kuwait right now, which is one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing no oil. Iraq, one of the leading members of OPEC, is producing almost no oil. Government headlines and paper market manipulation (shorting futures, SPR releases) cannot fix physical supply chain destruction. With 75-95% of Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupted, the physical shortage will force oil prices significantly higher regardless of political rhetoric. LONG. The market is mispricing the severity of the physical supply shock due to government intervention headlines. The US government implements extreme price controls or a wartime command economy, capping upside for investors despite physical shortages.