Jonah Van Bourg 2.0 48 ideas

The speaker states he is "dip buying" SPY right now, viewing it as a better-hedged version of MAG7 with less volatility. The core view is that the Iran conflict is transient. If it resolves, the bull market resumes. SPY provides broad exposure to that outcome, specifically the expected rip in tech, with lower single-stock risk. SPY is a preferred vehicle to express the high-probability view that the geopolitical overhang passes and markets rally. A prolonged oil crisis leading to stagflation, which would negatively impact equities.

The speaker argues Stripe is "better positioned to capture" the value from on-chain transactions than "pretty much anybody else" and is a "wave you can kind of ride now" in secondary markets. The mega-trend is the growth of efficient, API-based, and ultimately on-chain payments. Stripe owns a dominant share of the current API-based payment stack for commerce and is actively integrating crypto/stablecoin infrastructure (Tempo, Bridge). Stripe is a long-term investment to gain exposure to the convergence of traditional e-commerce payments and crypto/stablecoin rails. Valuation risk in private secondary markets; execution risk in integrating new payment technologies.

The speaker states a 90% chance the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves within weeks, leading to a sharp mean reversion in oil prices, and a 10% chance of prolonged crisis/stagflation. Commodities are mean-reverting, and high prices solve high prices. Political will for a prolonged conflict is low, and an off-ramp will be found. Saudi Arabia has signaled it will max production post-conflict. The high probability scenario is for a sharp oil price decline. The extreme volatility (~$6.50 daily move) and risk of being stopped out make it an unattractive, high-risk trade despite the bearish view. The 10% stagflation scenario where the Strait remains closed, causing oil to spike much higher.

The speaker stated he keeps "coming back to crypto" as an overlooked area, noting Bitcoin's resilience (not falling sharply on war news) and that "nobody is paying attention." Market focus is entirely on short-term oil volatility, capital has fled the asset class, and resilience suggests weak sellers are exhausted. This creates a potential setup for a resurgence once the immediate geopolitical crisis passes. The current distraction provides an opportunity to accumulate exposure to the long-term crypto mega-trend at depressed prices and low attention. A prolonged macro crisis drives a broad-based sell-off in all risk assets, including crypto.

The speaker stated he is "watching gold and silver for another massive rally" and would want to be "as deep in gold as possible" in a specific scenario: if oil stays high but the Fed is forced to cut rates due to poor employment/manufacturing data. This scenario represents a stagflationary outcome (the lower-probability 10% case). In such an environment, with inflation rising and growth faltering, gold would act as a hedge against dollar pressure and policy confusion. Gold is not a core holding in the base case, but is a conditional hedge worth monitoring closely for a shift in macroeconomic data. The high-probability scenario (war ends, oil crashes, tech rallies) plays out, making gold a poor performer. Or, central banks continue selling gold reserves.

Jonah said, "I was kind of bearish Canton, now I'm not." Canton may be a contrarian angle that aligns with the themes of crypto and traditional finance merging, offering a strategic investment opportunity. Long opportunity as the project gains traction in the evolving market landscape. Project-specific risks, lack of adoption, or failure to execute on its vision amidst competition.

Jonah calls Near a "money vacuum" and compares it to a "shitcoin," dismissing its "intents" narrative as irrelevant compared to centralized AI token generation. The thesis is based on hype rather than proven tokenomic demand or revenue; it lacks the fundamental buyback-driven value accrual seen in other assets. AVOID because capital is likely to be lost chasing a narrative that doesn't translate to sustainable value or price appreciation. The "intents" narrative gains unexpected traction and drives substantial, sustained adoption.

Jonah states Hyperliquid is "going to eat finance" and praises its product, noting it allows retail to trade assets like oil when traditional futures markets are closed. It provides a unique advantage (24/7 trading) that even large institutions currently lack due to regulatory barriers, creating a period of asymmetric opportunity for retail. LONG because its utility drives user adoption and revenue, and it is seen as a leading indicator for trading activity in related assets. Regulatory changes that allow institutions to trade on the platform, eroding the retail edge, or failure to scale.

Jonah identifies Galaxy as a laggard, noting it traded above $40 and is now at ~$23, and questions why it wouldn't rebound with crypto and AI narratives. Its valuation is heavily tied to the success of its Helios AI data center project and broader crypto market performance; a crypto rebound could lift the stock. WATCH because it is a high-risk, reflexive asset that could see a sharp move if sentiment turns, but its fundamental pivot to AI data centers remains unproven. The AI data center initiative fails to monetize effectively, or the company continues to post losses despite a crypto rally.

Jonah said "do not touch it with a 10-ft pole" and compared Near to a "money vacuum," citing past crashes and hype-driven narratives. Near's AI narrative (intents) is seen as unconvincing, and oversupply of altcoins crowds out investment merit. AVOID because it lacks sustainable value capture, with high risk of capital loss based on historical performance. If Near delivers on AI promises or gains unexpected adoption, it could outperform, but this is deemed unlikely.

"I expressed the trade by buying equities and by buying hyperliquid into the dip... let me use this as a chance to enter them basically add risk at better levels." Geopolitical flare-ups often cause knee-jerk sell-offs in broad equities and crypto as market participants de-risk. Because the underlying oil supply isn't actually disrupted and the US will keep sea lanes open, the macro panic is transient. This creates a temporary mispricing in risk assets, allowing investors to accumulate long-term bags at a discount. LONG. Use geopolitical panic as a liquidity event to accumulate high-conviction risk assets that are selling off in sympathy with the news cycle. A severe, unexpected escalation (e.g., a nuclear event or actual prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz) that genuinely crashes the global economy and causes a sustained bear market in risk assets.