Jonah Van Bourg

The author expresses a negative outlook on oil prices.

Hyperliquid volumes are trending up significantly, trading billions in real-world assets (Silver/Gold) and crypto. The token is up 50% recently despite the market crash. In crypto, "usage is king." Hyperliquid is capturing market share from traditional exchanges (like Nasdaq) and crypto competitors because it is a superior product with no supply overhang. It is transitioning from a "crypto play" to a revenue-generating financial infrastructure play. High conviction Long. Jonah suggests selling underwater Bitcoin positions to harvest tax losses and rotating that capital into HYPE. Regulatory intervention (though Trump administration perceived as favorable); competition from other decentralized exchanges.

Jonah states, "I think the lows are in... when we wicked down to... 60k I think that was it." The market is flushing out "useless" crypto assets (the Dot Com bust phase), but Bitcoin remains the premier "hard asset." The current chop is a transfer of value from impatient retail to institutions. The regulatory backdrop is constructive, and the "washout" creates a clean base for the next leg up. Accumulate at 60k-65k levels. A "real financial crisis" (Lehman style) contagion event that forces a deeper liquidation of all assets.

"I express the trade by buying other stuff that I like when it's selling off for what I consider to be ridiculous, stupid, transient reasons." Geopolitical shocks often cause knee-jerk, indiscriminate sell-offs in broad equities and crypto. If the oil threat is overstated and the US military can maintain order, these risk assets are mispriced and will mean-revert higher once the panic subsides. LONG broad market risk assets on geopolitical dips. The geopolitical situation actually deteriorates into a global economic crisis, causing a sustained bear market in risk assets.

Micron is undervalued at 35x trailing earnings because earnings could triple within a year due to a genuine memory commodity bottleneck and highly elastic demand from AI and autonomous coding agents. This is a demand-driven super trend, not a supply shock.

The US stock market will persistently outperform the rest of the world due to innovation, brain drain, and redistribution in Europe. A highly levered pair trade of long SPY and short VXUS captures this divergence with low volatility.

Memory market is undersupplied by 45-50% over the forward 12 months, which historically leads to 4-7x profit surges for memory manufacturers. Samsung and SK hynix are ridiculously underpriced even after large rallies; they could rally another 500% from current levels, and at least 50-100% is an easy two-bagger.

Memory market is undersupplied by 45-50% over the forward 12 months, which historically leads to 4-7x profit surges for memory manufacturers. Samsung and SK hynix are ridiculously underpriced even after large rallies; they could rally another 500% from current levels, and at least 50-100% is an easy two-bagger.

"I express the trade by buying other stuff that I like when it's selling off for what I consider to be ridiculous, stupid, transient reasons." Geopolitical shocks often cause knee-jerk, indiscriminate sell-offs in broad equities and crypto. If the oil threat is overstated and the US military can maintain order, these risk assets are mispriced and will mean-revert higher once the panic subsides. LONG broad market risk assets on geopolitical dips. The geopolitical situation actually deteriorates into a global economic crisis, causing a sustained bear market in risk assets.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger market volatility and inflation if prolonged, though potential intervention may mitigate long-term impacts.

Uranium (URA ETF at $53) and Rare Earths (REMX at $85) have sold off aggressively alongside Gold and Silver. This is a correlation dislocation. Retail and algos sold "all metals" blindly. However, Uranium and Rare Earths are driven by a "mega trend" (nuclear energy ramp-up) and are not monetary assets like Gold. The sell-off is a liquidity event, not a fundamental one. Buy the dip. These assets were "unfairly dragged around" and offer a better entry than the crowded precious metals trade. Continued broad market risk-off sentiment could suppress all commodities regardless of fundamentals.

Uranium (URA ETF at $53) and Rare Earths (REMX at $85) have sold off aggressively alongside Gold and Silver. This is a correlation dislocation. Retail and algos sold "all metals" blindly. However, Uranium and Rare Earths are driven by a "mega trend" (nuclear energy ramp-up) and are not monetary assets like Gold. The sell-off is a liquidity event, not a fundamental one. Buy the dip. These assets were "unfairly dragged around" and offer a better entry than the crowded precious metals trade. Continued broad market risk-off sentiment could suppress all commodities regardless of fundamentals.

Avis is a fantastic short because the short squeeze has pushed the price too high, and the company can issue more shares to raise cash, which will dilute shareholders and bring the price down. The move is playing out, and it could trade around 300 in six months.

The author warns that gold is overextended and cautions against chasing the rally.

I think we got a good entry on the Tel Aviv stock exchange too. It's off 10 15% on this. It's going to go right back to the highs once this is over. Markets have aggressively priced in existential war risk into Israeli equities. As the conflict resolves with a decisive victory that degrades hostile proxies, the risk premium will vanish, causing a rapid mean-reversion in the local stock market. LONG because the underlying economy remains intact and the current discount is purely driven by temporary kinetic conflict. The war expands into a multi-front, protracted conflict that severely damages domestic infrastructure and economic output.