jeff 5.0 3 ideas

Ever since 2022, commodity prices spike, these emerging markets get money. What do they buy? They buy gold. They buy anything but dollar denominated assets. Historically, when oil prices spiked, Middle Eastern producers recycled their windfall profits into US Treasuries, acting as a shock absorber for the US economy. Following the freezing of Russian central bank assets, sovereign nations no longer trust US dollar-denominated assets. Therefore, any spike in energy prices will directly translate into sovereign buying of gold. Long gold as it has replaced US Treasuries as the primary vehicle for petrodollar recycling in a multipolar world. A rapid de-escalation of global conflicts restores faith in the US dollar hegemony, slowing the pace of sovereign gold accumulation.

We're moving from that world that was defined in 2014 to 2024... into a regime change. Own the hard assets, own the halos, heavy asset, low obsolescence. The global economy is shifting away from the asset-light, software-driven boom of the last decade. Geopolitical fracturing and supply chain vulnerabilities are forcing a global re-industrialization. This requires massive amounts of physical materials, structurally repricing industrial metals and mining companies higher due to years of underinvestment in the old economy. Long industrial metals and mining equities that control scarce, hard-to-replicate physical assets. A severe global recession driven by high energy costs destroys industrial demand, offsetting the supply constraints.