LIVE: Trump Says "SELL YOUR STOCKS!", Oil Going HIGHER... IRAN vs US War ESCALATING!
Speakers
Thread Guy -- Host
— crypto podcast host (aka Red / The Red Guy)
Summary
- Thread Guy analyzes Trump's press conference comments where Trump stated he thought oil would be higher and stocks lower, signaling potential military escalation with Iran and implying specific market directions.
- Market reaction: S&P 500 (SPY) down 1.7% for the day, approximately 7% from highs, with Thread Guy noting this as the first day of real panic and diminishing impact of Trump's de-escalation moves ("tacos").
- Thread Guy sold his Bit Tensor (TAO) position due to geopolitical risk aversion, preferring cash and Bitcoin, citing Trump's warnings and a "bald tingle" feeling about risk assets.
- Mark Jeffrey presents a bullish thesis on Bit Tensor (TAO), comparing it to Bitcoin and Ethereum, with decentralized AI capabilities, successful subnet demonstrations (e.g., Templar's training run), and a price target of $3,000 by year-end.
- Historical context: Post-WWII military conflicts saw an average market drop of 6% with recovery in 28 days, but current escalation risks could deviate from this pattern.
- Discussion of market manipulation themes from Jesse Livermore's "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," suggesting all moves are insider-driven, adding skepticism to organic price action.
- Potential trade setups inferred from Trump's comments: long oil and short stocks, but with key risks of de-escalation or Trump intervening with a "Supreme Taco" to rally markets.
- Brief mention of drone stocks as a possible play if escalation occurs, but Thread Guy expresses ethical reservations and no formal position.
- Crypto sentiment is bearish overall (Thread Guy calls it "dog shit"), but TAO is highlighted as an exception due to AI narrative and institutional interest from figures like Jason Calacanis.
- Uncertainty remains on timing and outcome of geopolitical tensions, with Thread Guy emphasizing the need to monitor Trump's actions and market reactions closely.
Trade Ideas
Trump explicitly said in a press conference that he thought oil would go up more and stocks would go down more, indicating he expects further escalation. Trump's comments suggest impending military action against Iran, which would disrupt oil supply and drive prices higher, as seen in historical conflicts and current supply risks (e.g., attacks on Russian oil infrastructure). Long oil as a direct play on geopolitical escalation and supply shocks, with Trump effectively "screaming" the trade. De-escalation via a Trump "Supreme Taco" (peace move) or rapid conflict resolution, which could cause oil prices to plummet.
Trump expressed surprise that stocks aren't lower, and Thread Guy observes market panic with SPY down 7% from highs, calling it the first day of real fear. Historical patterns show market declines during conflicts, and current escalation risks could trigger further sell-offs as leveraged capital bets on de-escalation unwind. Short SPY to capitalize on expected downturn driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the diminishing efficacy of Trump's supportive measures ("tacos"). Trump intervenes with market-positive policies or a de-escalation announcement, sparking a rally similar to past "buy stocks" comments.
Mark Jeffrey explicitly states that Bit Tensor (TAO) is the most important cryptocurrency since Ethereum, with a decentralized AI platform, and gives a price target of $3,000 by year-end. Bit Tensor's model incentivizes global AI training competition via subnets, has proven decentralized training runs (e.g., Templar), and its economic structure ties subnet token demand to TAO, creating scarcity and value appreciation. Long TAO based on adoption similar to Bitcoin's early growth, subnet expansion to 256, and institutional interest, with conservative upside potential. Regulatory crackdown on AI or crypto, chain hacks, or failure to scale decentralized AI effectively.
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This Thread Guy video, published March 26, 2026, features Thread Guy, Mark Jeffrey discussing USO, SPY, TAO. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Thread Guy, Mark Jeffrey · Tickers: USO, SPY, TAO