LIVE: The "TACO PUMP"!? - Stocks are RIPPING - Iran vs US Continues...
Speakers
Thread Guy -- Host
— crypto podcast host (aka Red / The Red Guy)
Thiccy -- Co-host
— quant trader / crypto analyst
Summary
- The Iran-US conflict is being fought as a market war, with oil price as the primary battleground; Trump's announcements ("tacos") cause extreme volatility and are used to manipulate prices.
- Price discovery for oil happens predominantly on weekends when traditional markets are closed, giving an edge to 24/7 trading platforms like Hyperliquid.
- Bitcoin is not acting as a geopolitical hedge but as tech leverage, correlating with risk assets like Tesla rather than safe havens, despite ongoing unrest.
- Thread Guy has stopped trading oil after round-tripping two mid-five-figure positions due to fake news and Trump's de-escalation announcements, finding the market too manipulated.
- He is long the crypto token "towel" (likely TAO/Bit Tensor) based solely on social attention and shilling by influencers like Jason Calacanis, comparing it to past pumps like Zcash.
- Underlying AI bubble concerns persist, with OpenAI offering private equity firms a guaranteed 17.5% return, indicating capital scarcity and high costs of raising funds.
- Retail trading activity has declined from previous peaks (e.g., from ~16% to 8.1% of single-stock volume), suggesting the market is fully allocated and capital is tight.
- The war overshadows other issues like AI deflation and SaaS apocalypse, but a climax is expected where Trump's tacos either become real or stop moving markets.
- Gold is trading poorly with high volatility, described as "off a cliff" and like a "shitcoin," failing to serve as a reliable safe haven.
- Thread Guy advocates for trading based on Trump headlines rather than fundamentals, as the market is driven by announcements and manipulations, not underlying truths.
Trade Ideas
Thread Guy explicitly stated he round-tripped two oil trades on fake news and is "done with the oil trades at the moment" due to frustration and stop-outs. The oil market is heavily manipulated by Trump's announcements (tacos) and coordinated interventions (e.g., SPR releases), causing unpredictable whipsaws that make consistent profits difficult. Avoid trading oil because the market is controlled by headlines and external manipulations, leading to high risk of losses despite fundamental escalations. If the war escalates beyond headline control (e.g., actual supply disruptions), oil could break out, but currently, interventions cap upside.
Thread Guy stated he is "full poor at BTC basically damn near 75%" and has been holding Bitcoin for about a year. Despite Bitcoin not acting as a geopolitical hedge and instead correlating with tech stocks, he believes in its long-term value and expects it to appreciate over time. Long Bitcoin because he is convinced it will eventually go up, even if short-term movements are tied to risk assets, and he maintains a significant portfolio allocation. If the market turns risk-off or Bitcoin fails to decouple from tech leverage, it could underperform; geopolitical unrest may not boost it as expected.
Thread Guy said he "longed towel at 266" and added more, based on social attention from figures like Jason Calacanis who are shilling it aggressively. Similar to past crypto pumps like Zcash, when influential non-crypto natives promote a token, it drives attention and buying pressure, leading to potential price appreciation. Long towel because the attention thesis suggests a momentum play with quick returns, supported by high-profile endorsements and market narratives. If the social hype fades or if the project lacks substance, the price could collapse; reliance on influencers makes it speculative.
Thread Guy observed that gold is "off a cliff" and trading like a "shitcoin," with poor price action and high volatility. In the current environment, gold is not performing as a safe haven asset; it is experiencing sharp declines and lacks sustained momentum, similar to speculative assets. Avoid gold because it is not holding up during geopolitical unrest and is subject to erratic moves, making it unattractive for hedging or investment. If geopolitical risks escalate severely, gold might surge as a traditional safe haven, but current behavior suggests it is unreliable.
Up Next
This Thread Guy video, published March 23, 2026, features Thread Guy discussing WTI, BTC, TOWEL, GOLD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Thread Guy · Tickers: WTI, BTC, TOWEL, GOLD