Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Trump Eases Iran Threats | The Close 3/23/2026
Speakers
Kai Liekefett -- Partner, Sidley Austin
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Geopolitical de-escalation: President Trump's comments on pausing strikes and potential talks with Iran triggered a relief rally in equities, a sharp drop in oil prices (Brent down ~12% to below $100/barrel), and a retreat in the U.S. dollar.
- Oil market disruption: The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 24 days, causing physical crude prices to exceed $150/barrel in Asia and early signs of demand destruction; reopening is critical for supply normalization.
- Consumer bifurcation and oil sensitivity: High oil prices, with gasoline near $4/gallon, disproportionately impact low-end consumers, potentially dragging on spending and economic growth, while high-end consumers remain resilient.
- Market rotation: Kara Murphy observes a shift in leadership from AI-driven Mag Seven names to broader parts of the economy, supported by mid-double-digit earnings growth expectations for 2026 and pickup in mid- and small-cap earnings.
- Shareholder activism evolution: Kai Liekefett notes Elliott Investment Management's prolific campaigns, a trend toward directly targeting CEOs, and emerging activism in crypto companies, despite sector volatility.
- Real estate flight to quality: Jonathan Goldstein emphasizes that in challenging markets, capital supports differentiated, high-quality real estate projects, such as luxury hospitality, with strong location and execution.
- Dollar strength dynamics: Carlos Fernandez-Aller attributes the dollar's rise to the U.S. being a net energy exporter, making it relatively insulated from oil shocks, but positioning could reverse if geopolitical tensions ease.
- Oil price thresholds: Julian Emanuel highlights that oil prices 35-50% above the 24-month moving average (around $93-$98/barrel for WTI) signal economic alarm bells, with a 2-3 month window before significant consumer drag.
- Protein demand surge: Jeff Simmons discusses a "protein craze" with rising meat consumption, driven by innovation in animal health and productivity gains, aiming to close a 20% global loss in protein production.
- Mall revival driven by Gen Z: Jack Hsieh reports that Class A malls are thriving, with high traffic and new leases, as retailers prioritize high-traffic locations and Gen Z consumers favor in-store experiences.
- Private-label MBS growth: Michael Vranos predicts the non-agency mortgage market could grow to $2 trillion, featuring high-quality loans (average FICO 753, LTV below 70%) and low losses, offering investment opportunities.
Trade Ideas
Jack Hsieh explicitly states that "malls are alive and thriving," with over 270 million visitors to Macerich's portfolio last year and customers returning to Class A centers. Gen Z consumers are driving demand, and retailers are prioritizing high-traffic, high-income trade areas for both online and in-store sales, leading to new leasing activity and transformed anchor spaces. Positive outlook for retail real estate, particularly Class A malls, due to sustained consumer foot traffic, retailer demand, and experiential offerings, supporting long-term growth. Economic downturn or renewed consumer spending weakness could reduce mall traffic and retailer expansion.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 23, 2026, features Jack Hsieh discussing XRT. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jack Hsieh · Tickers: XRT