All the Possible Outcomes of the Iran War

Summary

• Thread Guy outlines three potential outcomes for the US-Iran conflict: ceasefire (<1% probability), Trump declares victory (25-50% probability), and full ground invasion (15-20% probability).
• He assesses the most likely outcome (Trump declares victory) as bad for the US, leading to a loss of confidence in the American empire and fracturing the dollar's reserve currency status.
• In this scenario, he expects stocks to lower, bond yields to rise, and assets like Bitcoin and gold to appreciate long-term.
• He is perplexed that oil prices haven't surged more given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other geopolitical risks, seeing a disconnect between events and market pricing.
• He personally feels bullish on oil, reentered a trade on Brent at $100, but got stopped out, indicating ongoing volatility and trading opportunity.
• He attributes market complacency to factors like the need for physical evidence of crisis, overreliance on Trump's ability to de-escalate ("taco"), passive investment flows, and potential manipulation.
• He dismisses the "4D chess" narrative as unrealistic, emphasizing Iran's strategic chokehold on the Strait and their incentive to pursue nuclear weapons.
• He holds mostly cash in non-Bitcoin investments, avoiding shorting the stock market due to lack of confidence.
• Bitcoin is highlighted as a beneficiary of any outcome that weakens the US dollar, serving as a hedge.