How Twitter Traders BEAT Wall Street.. (Fejau)

Summary

• Oil shock from Strait of Hormuz closure since late February; impacts oil, LNG (20% of global supply from Qatar), and helium critical for AI/data centers.
• U.S. energy-independent due to shale boom, relatively advantaged vs. Asia/Europe; Fejau sees this driving a U.S. dollar rally as other economies face recession risk.
• Oil futures curve shows front-month contracts cooling (from ~$114 to ~$96) but long-dated contracts (e.g., Feb 2027) hitting new highs, pricing in prolonged crisis.
• Fejau long U.S. dollar (DXY), sold gold anticipating dollar strength; views gold negatively amid dollar rally.
• Bitcoin cautiously bullish: sold off earlier, leverage cleaned out, ETF inflows (e.g., "sailor stretch") provide support, but lacks strong narrative.
• Commodity super cycle thesis: decade of underinvestment meeting AI/data center demand leads to rolling bubbles in hyper-liquid markets (e.g., silver, oil).
• Bearish on equities difficult due to presidential influence, passive flows, options market gamma dynamics, and widespread put hedging elevating skew.
• Private credit risk acknowledged but secondary to oil shock; hides degenerate debt from public markets, keeping high-yield credit spreads tame.
• Independent Twitter traders ("CT" – Crypto Twitter) gaining edge over traditional news in fast-moving events (e.g., oil shock), leveraging hyper-online skills.
• Crypto altcoins suffer without equity-like cash flow claims; tokens with governance only are down only, while those solving structure issues (e.g., Morpho) rewarded.
• Fejau's approach: mostly cash or long, avoids direct oil futures due to complexity, uses derivative expressions, waits for clarity on oil shock duration.