Next generation of tech winners to emerge outside of U.S., says Tekne Capital's Kothari

Summary

• Primary thesis is that the next generation of tech winners will emerge outside the U.S., specifically in Asia.
• Core reason: ~90% of the ~$1 trillion spend on AI infrastructure (by NVIDIA's customers and hyperscalers) flows to Asia, where the physical supply chain (chips, memory, robots, batteries) is concentrated after 30 years of development.
• China is highlighted for a "confluence" of massive infrastructure spending and compellingly cheap valuations relative to the U.S.
• China possesses a critical advantage in electricity/power capacity: a 400-gigawatt spare capacity versus an anticipated 44-gigawatt shortage in the U.S., having built more solar power year-to-date than the entire history of the U.S.
• The entire publicly listed data center market in China is valued at only ~$10B, deemed extremely cheap.
• Distinguishes between the "digital layer" (where the U.S. leads, focused on AGI) and the "physical layer" (where Asia focuses on ROI, robotics, and manufacturing).
• Predicts China will likely "overbuild" AI capacity as it did with EVs and solar, creating a deflationary, bullish tailwind for emerging markets (the "Global South") that can import cheap AI infrastructure.
• His portfolio reflects a "picks and shovels" approach within this theme, with holdings in companies like DIDI Global, a semiconductor firm, and GDS.
• Exited South Korean chip makers recently, recycling capital into other Asian opportunities, particularly China.