Israel Targets More of Iran's Top Leaders

Summary

• Israel killed Iran's security chief Ali Larijani, who had become a de facto public ruler after the earlier killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei.
• Iranian leadership is in disarray: Khamenei was succeeded by his son Mojtaba, who is unseen and rumored injured or dead from Israeli/U.S. strikes.
• Israel and U.S. objectives: primarily degrade Iranian capabilities (ballistic missiles, nuclear program, navy) and secondarily create space for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime.
• Israel assesses that 70-80% of the Iranian populace oppose the regime, supported by recent widespread protests and state crackdown.
• Israel's foreign minister stated the war is effectively won but will continue until the mission is completed.
• Israeli public broadly supports the war due to direct threat from Iran and proxies (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah), unlike the American public which is less supportive due to geographical distance.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu's approval ratings have improved due to recent policy conduct, but an upcoming election will serve as a key test, with the October 7th attack remaining a critical memory.