I Made A Year's Salary In One Crude Oil Trade (Full Trade Breakdown)

Summary

• Speaker's core thesis is a massive, market-mispriced supply/demand imbalance in oil due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global daily oil supply.
• Key supporting fact: The market is losing ~20 million barrels per day from the closure, while the maximum release from strategic reserves (IEA's 400M barrel announcement) can only add ~2 million barrels per day, creating an 18M barrel daily deficit.
• Contrarian claim: The market, especially futures, was incorrectly pricing a quick resolution to Middle East conflicts ("war ending in 72 hours"), creating a "spread" between geopolitical reality and market positioning.
• Primary market implication: The U.S. has a hard price limit (~$100 Brent), leading to potential market interventions (e.g., SPR releases, order book manipulation, price caps) to suppress oil prices for political stability.
• The trade was entered not on deep fundamental analysis but on a sentiment/attention arbitrage: buying when the market ignored the severity of the supply crisis, with the intent to sell when it became consensus.
• Speaker acknowledges high uncertainty from potential market manipulation (citing Scott Bessent), fake headlines, and the risk of government price caps which could destroy the trade despite fundamentals.
• The speaker's claimed edge is expertise in narrative and attention trading ("Twitter game") over traditional commodity trading experience, focusing on headline-driven sentiment shifts.
• The executed trade was a long crude oil futures position entered at an average of ~$85, taken with low leverage (2x), and scaled out at ~$101.32.