All Sources✓
YouTube✓
Twitter✓
Reddit✓
Substack✓
Insider✓
News✓
Loading...
0 selected
All directions✓
▲ Long✓
▼ Short✓
◦ Others✓
Any score✓
LOW+✓
MED+✓
HIGH✓
12:01
Apr 13
Apr 13
Prime Vaults (e.g., Morpho prime vaults)
BTC
USDT
DeFi Fixed-Rate Lending Protocols
Prediction Markets sector
▾
Prime vault yields are too low for the risk.
Prime vaults (overcollateralized Bitcoin/ETH lending vaults, e.g., on Morpho) offer yields too close to the risk-free rate and do not adequately compensate lenders for the underlying risks, which include market risk (volatility gaps), smart contract risk, hack risk, and operational security risk. The current low yields are driven by an imbalance of excess supply over demand and the protocols being 'brutal for the borrower' with instant liquidations, requiring low borrow rates to attract users. A fair spread above risk-free should be several hundred basis points.
Prime Vaults (e.g., Morpho prime vaults) AVOID
Bitcoin as insurance reserve reduces volatility.
Bitcoin's volatility could decrease and its long-term value increase if it becomes a reserve asset for long-dated balance sheets like life insurance companies, which have a multi-decade investment horizon and would be uncorrelated, patient buyers. This would change Bitcoin's price behavior from being dominated by traders and arbitrageurs.
BTC WATCH
Stablecoins should stream risk-free yield on-chain.
Stablecoins should be allowed to stream the risk-free rate (e.g., from treasury holdings) directly to holders on-chain. Current regulation prevents this, forcing the risk and search for yield onto DeFi protocols and retail users. Enabling this would repricing the entire DeFi yield curve and make markets more efficient.
USDT WATCH
DeFi fixed-rate lending should yield above variable.
The fixed-rate term lending structures being experimented with (e.g., in Morpho v2) should, in an efficient market, settle at a yield above the variable rate to compensate lenders for the borrower's protection against instant liquidation (i.e., the 'phone call' restructuring benefit). This presents a developing opportunity in DeFi term structure.
DeFi Fixed-Rate Lending Protocols WATCH
Prediction markets are a great uncorrelated risk primitive.
Prediction markets are a superior primitive for expressing and hedging uncorrelated, long-dated risks, which is a major need in crypto currently dominated by short-term, correlated trading assets. They represent an area where crypto's permissionless, global distribution channel is a clear advantage over traditional finance.
Prediction Markets sector WATCH
12:01
Apr 10
Apr 10
DASH
▾
The speaker explicitly states he is "piling into DoorDash" (DASH) and describes the founder as "the GOAT." He explains his personal spending on the service has increased every year for 5-6 years, a pattern he last observed with Amazon. He posits that in an AI-dominated market, "operationally heavy" companies will disproportionately benefit. DoorDash is cited as a prime example of an operationally intensive business. LONG. The thesis combines observed personal consumption trends with a macroeconomic view that AI will favor complex logistics businesses over pure software, suggesting structural growth and potential market outperformance. A macroeconomic downturn reducing consumer discretionary spending on delivery services, or regulatory challenges impacting the gig economy model.
DASH LONG
12:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
BTC
HYPE
ENA
VENICE
NEAR
▾
Speaker states he is "pretty long" on Bitcoin, citing favorable positioning and highlighting the news that Iran may charge for tolls in Bitcoin or Yuan as a "huge" fundamental development. Bitcoin's value proposition as a neutral, global store of value is strengthened in an increasingly multipolar world where the U.S. is no longer the undisputed guarantor of order, and nation-state adoption increases its utility. Bullish on Bitcoin as it fulfills its core purpose amid geopolitical fragmentation and new demand channels. A smooth geopolitical resolution reduces safe-haven demand; the toll news may be more headline than substance.
BTC LONG
Speaker lists Hype as a core holding, expecting it "will do well as RWA becomes a bigger share of their OI," and notes positive headlines around volume and their evolution into "everything exchanges." The growth of Real-World Assets (RWA) on-chain directly increases the open interest and utility of the Hype perpetual exchange. Its upcoming Hippo 4 upgrade expands its product suite into prediction markets and unified accounts, potentially capturing new market share. Bullish due to fundamental growth drivers in its core business and successful product expansion. The protocol, like others discussed, carries significant admin key risk which could lead to a catastrophic exploit.
HYPE LONG
Speaker bought ENA after its announcement to diversify yield sources beyond treasuries, calling it "insanely underowned, super beaten down," and noting USDe supply has hit a floor. Ethena's plan to integrate new yield sources (e.g., prime lending, other debt) demonstrates the team's ability to find creative growth avenues. A floor in USDe supply establishes a base for potential future expansion. Bullish as the token is undervalued relative to the team's execution capability and the protocol's capacity for growth beyond the initial carry trade. New yield sources fail to perform or introduce unexpected risks; competition from other yield-bearing stablecoins intensifies.
ENA LONG
Speaker names Venice and NEAR as interesting AI tokens, citing that teams are "still building" during the bear market. He states Venice's growth has been "through the roof" but is underappreciated. In a bear market, attrition makes high-quality, building teams more visible. Venice's significant but under-the-radar user growth and NEAR's continued development position them well for the next growth phase in AI and compute. Bullish on these specific AI-related crypto assets due to strong fundamental development and growth metrics that are not fully priced in. The broader AI narrative in crypto fades; growth metrics fail to translate into sustainable value capture.
VENICE LONG
NEAR LONG
12:00
Apr 06
Apr 06
GOLD
USDG
PYUSD
BTC
XLY
▾
The speaker states gold is "really widely considered" a risk-free asset and that you need to "be long the solution" like gold. He frames its recent price rise as indicative of how much the dollar has gone down. Gold is "geological proof of work," a tangible store of value that has preserved purchasing power (e.g., one ounce historically bought a fine suit or a month's soldier salary, which it still roughly does). In an environment of fiat debasement and global instability, it serves as a trusted, enduring asset. LONG as a permanent, non-correlated asset that protects against currency debasement and systemic financial instability, acting as a foundational "solution" in a portfolio. Central bank selling (e.g., Turkey, Poland) can create momentum-driven price swings to the downside, and it offers no yield.
GOLD LONG
The speaker is the CEO of the issuer for PayPal USD (PYUSD) and the Global Dollar (USDG). He states Paxos-issued stablecoins have grown from ~$1B to $6B in a year, gaining significant market share, and have unique regulatory advantages (multi-jurisdictional primary regulation). The stablecoin market is won on regulation, economics, utility, and liquidity. Paxos's white-label model and the member-owned Global Dollar Network address economic sharing. GENIUS Act clarity forces institutions to adopt compliant options. Liquidity builds a flywheel: higher market cap enables larger holders, driving more usage. WATCH as potential challengers to USDC and USDT, given their compliant structure, growing institutional partnerships, and the scalability of the issuer's infrastructure. Their growth trajectory is a key indicator of market structure shift. Liquidity is the hardest factor to build and is dominated by incumbents. Network effects are powerful, and competitors like Circle and Tether have massive head starts in integration and user familiarity.
USDG WATCH
PYUSD WATCH
The speaker defines Bitcoin as "mathematical proof of work" competing with gold's "geological proof of work," while fiat currency is unsustainable "future proof of work" (debt). He states, "I think Bitcoin as a store of value is like in a very good position to continue to go up." Global fiat systems are debased (M2 up ~10%/year) to support excessive debt, creating a "disequilibrium." Assets tied to real "proof of work" (energy) are the antidote. Bitcoin's volatility is part of its path from speculative asset to store of value. LONG because Bitcoin is positioned as a scarce, non-debt-based asset that benefits from the structural decline of fiat purchasing power and is early in its adoption curve versus gold's $40T+ market cap. The "wall of worry" around upgrading Bitcoin's cryptographic algorithms over decades to ensure its longevity as a store of value, which is not yet proven like gold's millennia of history.
BTC LONG
The speaker discusses the challenges of building a consumer-facing crypto exchange/brokerage, noting Paxos consciously avoided this path. He states, "the biggest businesses have been built around monetizing the fact that you can create retail access to crypto assets... I would never believe that." The regulatory window that allowed firms like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken to acquire millions of customers was an anomaly created by ambiguous rules that hindered traditional brokers. This window is now closing with greater clarity, and the initial land grab phase is over. Future competition with entrenched incumbents will be fierce. AVOID new ventures aiming to directly acquire retail customers for crypto trading, as the regulatory and competitive landscape has normalized, favoring large incumbents and B2B infrastructure plays. A new, massive, and speculative retail wave could create demand for new consumer-facing platforms, but this is seen as cyclical and unpredictable.
XLY AVOID
12:00
Apr 03
Apr 03
GOOG
NOW
XLF
▾
Santi states he has a position in Google, finds it comfortable to own for multi-year periods because "it's a monopoly" and he doesn't think they will be unseated. He is accumulating names on his shopping list that are down significantly, focusing on long-term secular tailwinds. Google fits this thesis as a high-conviction, durable business. LONG. He is explicitly buying and holding Google as a core, long-term position based on its dominant market position and discounted price. Prolonged macro downturn impacting all equities; regulatory action against monopolies.
GOOG LONG
Santi names ServiceNow as a specific position he holds, citing a disconnect where some enterprise software/SaaS names are trading at compelling multiples. His background as an enterprise software analyst informs this view. He is accumulating equities he wants to hold long-term as they trade down. WATCH. He holds a position and finds the valuation compelling, but it is presented as part of a broader basket of opportunities rather than a standalone high-conviction call. Enterprise IT spending contraction in a recession; competition in the SaaS space.
NOW WATCH
Santi describes a "crypto VC mass extinction event," where too much capital chased a not-that-big space, hit rates are falling, and "only a few funds will survive." The causal chain is that the easy money era in crypto venture is over, returns are collapsing, and the industry must consolidate. This implies most venture funds (a subset of Finance) are unattractive and will fail. AVOID. The implication is that broad exposure to the crypto venture capital sector carries high risk of failure and capital impairment; capital should flow only to the proven top performers. A sudden new bull market in crypto could temporarily resurrect fundraising and returns, delaying consolidation.
XLF AVOID
14:00
Mar 30
Mar 30
BTC
CANTON
▾
Speaker is "pretty bullish" on the "big three" including "Bitcoin soul." He notes the realized price (global average cost basis) is ~$56k and that Bitcoin historically doesn't dip far below this level. He also bought Bitcoin when it dipped into the $60ks, feeling it was a bottom. The realized price acts as a strong historical support level. Market participants are psychologically bad at realizing paper losses, making a sustained drop below this average cost basis statistically unlikely based on past cycles. LONG. The combination of a key technical metric (realized price) providing support, contrarian buying at perceived lows, and his overarching bullish market view indicates a positive outlook. A macro shock or regulatory event that breaks the historical pattern of the realized price acting as support.
BTC LONG
Speaker is "super bullish on canton" because "when Wall Street is... writing daml you kind of like don't really need to know more." He notes Daml engineers are already at banks writing code, implying deep, real integration. Canton's technology (Daml) has achieved deep, technical integration within major financial institutions (Wall Street banks). This isn't theoretical partnership talk but actual engineering work, signaling a high probability of future large-scale, production-grade adoption for on-chain traditional finance. LONG. The depth of existing integration within the incumbent financial system provides a tangible moat and a clear path to significant adoption and value accrual as traditional assets move on-chain. Slow time to market or failure of bank-led projects to reach production scale, delaying Canton's growth and adoption timeline.
CANTON LONG
13:01
Mar 27
Mar 27
WU
SKY
▾
The CEO of Western Union stated stablecoins are "the most amazing thing" he's seen in 20 years in payments. The company can free up its multi-billion dollar daily float used for real-time settlements by using stablecoins. Liberating this trapped capital would allow for significant stock buybacks (the company's market cap is $3.6B) and improve capital efficiency dramatically. They also plan to roll out stablecoin-backed debit cards via Ramp to 100M customers, transforming receivers into banking customers. This represents a fundamental operational and business model shift for a major, legacy financial institution. If executed, it could re-rate the equity and validate the stablecoin thesis at scale. Execution risk. The CEO has promised blockchain initiatives before (with Ripple, Stellar) that never materialized. The company's large, legacy operational structure may slow or derail implementation.
WU WATCH
Better, a traditional mortgage originator, is using a credit facility from Sky (a crypto credit protocol) to lower its cost of capital, aiming to squeeze out ~100 basis points. This demonstrates a real-world, non-crypto company using on-chain capital markets to supplement its traditional financing. The value proposition is lower cost and efficiency for the borrower, with no direct change for the end customer. Sky's model is gaining traction with legitimate financial institutions, showcasing a pragmatic path for DeFi to service traditional finance (TradFi) and capture value from real economic activity. Governance risk within the DeFi protocol. Scaling this model requires convincing more traditional companies to take on the operational and perceived risk of using on-chain capital.
SKY WATCH
13:00
Mar 20
Mar 20
HYPE
▾
Hyperliquid generated $140M in revenue over the last 90 days, leads in on-chain perpetual markets, and recently partnered with S&P to license S&P 500 perpetuals. High revenue and strategic partnerships indicate strong product-market fit, growth in on-chain derivatives, and potential to capture institutional interest as seen with S&P's involvement. Positive outlook due to dominance in a high-growth niche, but regulatory risks and competition warrant monitoring rather than immediate action. Regulatory challenges could hinder expansion, and fee compression or increased competition (e.g., from other chains launching perps) may impact revenue growth.
HYPE WATCH
13:00
Mar 13
Mar 13
ONDO
V
MA
COIN
ACX
▾
Ondo is a low revenue business that would not be valued at $2.5 billion in a public equity market. Crypto markets are currently pricing certain Real World Asset (RWA) tokens purely on narrative rather than fundamental cash flows. As the industry matures and begins valuing projects based on actual net revenue and take-rates, tokens with massive fully diluted valuations and low fee generation will face severe downward repricing. AVOID. The token is trading at a massive premium to its fundamental business value, making it highly vulnerable to a correction. The RWA narrative could continue to drive irrational retail bidding, or the team could announce a major structural change that accrues unexpected value to the token.
ONDO AVOID
Visa is doing over six billion of annualized direct stablecoin settlement on the network now, and Mastercard is launching a crypto partner program to catch up. The narrative that stablecoins will disrupt Visa and Mastercard is false. Instead, these legacy networks will integrate stablecoins as backend settlement rails to lower their own costs and aggressively grow their highly profitable B2B and non-bank transaction segments (Visa Direct and Mastercard Send). LONG. Visa and Mastercard are successfully co-opting blockchain technology to enhance their existing monopolies rather than being displaced by it. Native crypto payment apps could eventually build closed-loop merchant networks that bypass Visa/Mastercard entirely.
V LONG
MA LONG
Kraken's product velocity has been better than Coinbase's, they just announced a deal with NASDAQ for tokenized stock registry, and they secured a Federal Reserve Master account. Coinbase is losing its institutional monopoly and product edge in the US market. Because Coinbase has historically tried to build everything in-house and compete directly with legacy players, they are being boxed out of major traditional finance partnerships, which will bleed their market share. AVOID. Coinbase needs a massive strategic acquisition to regain momentum, and until then, faster competitors are eating into their core business. Coinbase's Base Layer 2 network could generate enough on-chain revenue to offset exchange market share losses, or a massive retail bull market could lift all boats.
COIN AVOID
Across Protocol posted a temperature check proposal exploring the move from a DAO to a US C-Corp where token holders could exchange tokens for equity at a 1:1 ratio or redeem at a 25% premium. The market fundamentally values the cash flows and M&A potential of a traditional equity structure higher than a governance token. This creates a direct arbitrage opportunity and sets a precedent for repricing undervalued DeFi tokens that choose to privatize. LONG. The explicit buyout premium and the structural shift to a value-accruing equity model provide a hard floor and upside catalyst for the asset. The DAO vote could fail, or regulatory hurdles regarding KYC and securities conversion could stall the transition.
ACX LONG
Aave is one of the only DAOs that has figured out how to make this work, with revenue going to the DAO, and it benefits from being a permissionless protocol that can operate across jurisdictions as a global money market layer. While many sub-scale DeFi apps will need to convert to equity to survive, base-layer financial protocols like Aave actually benefit from the token/DAO model. It allows them to bypass traditional corporate regulatory bottlenecks and scale globally as a monopolistic, borderless infrastructure layer. LONG. Aave is successfully executing the DAO model with real revenue accrual, giving it a unique moat against traditional fintechs. Regulatory crackdowns on permissionless money markets or smart contract vulnerabilities could impair the protocol.
AAVE LONG
Robinhood behaves better, has a more interesting customer acquisition funnel, and is doing interesting things around capturing the customer lifecycle from their titanium card to IPO access. As the regulatory environment normalizes, retail users will prefer all-in-one financial super-apps over pure-play crypto exchanges. Robinhood's superior product development and broader suite of traditional financial services give it a structural advantage in acquiring and retaining retail capital. LONG. Robinhood's product velocity and diversified revenue streams make it a safer and faster-growing bet for retail financial dominance. A severe downturn in retail trading volumes across both equities and crypto would disproportionately hurt their transaction-based revenue.
HOOD LONG
13:30
Mar 06
Mar 06
BTC
ICE
WU
GSOL
XLE
▾
Bitcoin rallied back to $72k-$73k with over $1B in ETF inflows. Despite equity market volatility and geopolitical fears (Iran), Bitcoin remained range-bound, indicating a lack of structural sellers. The derivatives market shows short-term downside hedging but long-term bullish positioning for the rest of the year. The resilience against bad news suggests a strong setup for medium-term upside. LONG Bitcoin as a resilient asset with strong institutional flows. Escalation in geopolitical conflicts (Iran) lasting longer than the market's current "4-week" expectation.
BTC LONG
Rob mentions "Jeffreer [Jeff Sprecher] and the ICE guys" are incredibly forward-thinking, citing their investment in Polymarket and now OKX (via NYSE/ICE connectivity). Traditional finance exchanges (ICE/NYSE) are effectively co-opting crypto infrastructure (prediction markets, spot crypto pricing). This positions them to capture value from the asset class without the direct volatility of holding tokens. LONG ICE as a proxy for institutional crypto infrastructure adoption. Regulatory blocks on traditional finance integrating crypto services.
ICE LONG
Santiago highlights that Western Union is up 6% while Solana is down 52% (in the context of their bet). He notes excitement for their upcoming earnings and margin improvements. Legacy fintech companies are integrating stablecoins to improve margins and efficiency. This fundamental improvement makes them "more investable" than speculative tokens that lack cash flow. LONG Western Union as a value play on fintech modernization. Failure to execute on digital transformation; continued decline in traditional remittance volumes.
WU LONG
Santiago argues that Solana (SOL) and other L1s have been "overly punished" and that crypto demand is still trending "up and to the right." While acknowledging many tokens aren't investable, the sell-off in major L1s like Solana is viewed as excessive relative to the continued usage and demand growth. LONG Solana (via Grayscale Trust or direct) as a mean-reversion trade. Continued regulatory pressure or a shift in developer activity to other chains.
GSOL LONG
Santiago discusses the "compute, intelligence, energy flywheel" and states that the "biggest bottleneck is just energy." As software and AI demand grows, the physical constraint is power generation. This implies a structural bull market for energy producers and utilities required to power data centers. LONG Energy and Utilities sectors as the "picks and shovels" for the AI boom. Regulatory caps on energy consumption for data centers; rapid advancements in chip efficiency reducing power needs.
XLE LONG
XLU LONG
16:01
Mar 05
Mar 05
BRPHF
SIEGY
BE
CEG
INFY
▾
Galaxy Digital is "coming back from the dead" (up 12%) and investors are repurposing Bitcoin miners for High-Performance Computing (HPC). As the market hunts for compute capacity, companies with existing power and hardware infrastructure (miners/Galaxy) are being repriced as AI infrastructure plays rather than just crypto proxies. Long Galaxy Digital (US OTC ticker for Galaxy). Bitcoin price crash or failure to execute on the HPC transition.
BRPHF LONG
Hyperscalers are becoming hardware businesses with compressing margins, but the compute build-out will last for 5 years. The primary bottleneck is energy. To play the AI boom without the crowded hyperscaler valuation risk, capital must flow to the power generation infrastructure required to run the chips. Gas turbines (Siemens, Bloom) and nuclear/grid infra (Constellation) are the "picks and shovels" of the next phase. Long Energy Infrastructure and Gas Turbine manufacturers. Regulatory hurdles for new energy deployment or a slowdown in AI capex.
SIEGY LONG
BE LONG
CEG LONG
Leopold Aschenbrenner (referenced investor) has shorted Infosys. The Indian IT outsourcing sector is a $300B industry representing 8% of the economy. AI agents are rapidly becoming capable of performing the specific white-collar tasks (coding, support, data) that are currently outsourced. This structural displacement renders the traditional "body shop" outsourcing model obsolete. Short IT Outsourcing firms. AI adoption takes longer than expected; companies successfully pivot to "AI-enabled" services.
INFY SHORT
Europe has committed 800 billion euros to rearmament by 2030. Trump is forcing NATO members to hit 5% spending targets. Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is structurally forced to re-arm. This creates a guaranteed revenue pipeline for European defense contractors that is decoupled from the US tech cycle. Long European Defense Prime Contractors (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems). Geopolitical de-escalation reducing urgency for spending.
RNMBY LONG
BAESY LONG
Speaker is traveling to China to meet founders; believes the market is mispricing the innovation happening there. Contrarian stance—while the West focuses on US AI, Chinese markets have been battered and offer deep value, particularly in tech and manufacturing sectors that are innovating independently of US supply chains. Long China Tech/Indices. Further US sanctions or domestic regulatory crackdowns in China.
KWEB LONG
FXI LONG
Bitcoin held strong (-5% to -7% historically, but flat/up this time) while equities sold off on bad weekend news (Iran strikes). It is breaking important technical levels at $73k. The decoupling of crypto from equities during a "risk-off" geopolitical event signals a shift in market structure and renewed institutional appetite. Long Bitcoin as a hedge and momentum play. Escalation of war in the Middle East leading to a broader liquidity crunch.
BTC LONG
Near Protocol is launching "Near AI" (private models with Trusted Execution Environments) and has pivoted successfully to "Intents." The token is now slightly deflationary due to fee burns. Near is positioning itself as the "User-Owned AI" stack, competing with centralized models by offering privacy and sovereign control. The deflationary tokenomics provide a fundamental floor that didn't exist in previous cycles. Long NEAR as a beta play on the intersection of Crypto and AI. Failure to gain traction against centralized AI giants; "pivot fatigue" if the narrative shifts again.
NEAR LONG
14:00
Mar 03
Mar 03
MKR
HNT
AAVE
UNI
ETH
▾
"Applications capture 60% of the value but have a minority of the market cap... that to me looks like an opportunity." As professional investors enter the space, they will value assets based on discounted cash flows (DCF). DeFi protocols (Aave, Maker) generate sustainable revenue ($10s of millions), whereas Layer 1 blockchains are priced on speculative monetary premiums. Capital will rotate into these cash-flowing "equities of crypto." LONG DeFi "Blue Chips" with proven revenue models. Regulatory hurdles remain; "fee switches" (returning capital to token holders) could face legal challenges.
MKR LONG
AAVE LONG
UNI LONG
"Markets hate uncertainty and with the two cap table structure right now markets perceive some uncertainty on value capture." Helium is undervalued because of the complex split between the company (Nova Labs) and the token (HNT). As the industry consolidates these structures (folding labs into protocols to align value), the uncertainty discount will vanish, repricing the asset higher to match its utility. LONG HNT as a restructuring play. Regulatory "hangover" persists; failure to successfully merge/align the entities.
HNT LONG
"I don't think stable coin transfers deliver almost any value to a blockchain... they have to be essentially free." The market overvalues L1 blockchains based on the metric of "transfer volume." If transaction fees race to zero (to support AI agents and payments), L1s lose their primary revenue driver. The "fat protocol" thesis is dead; value accrues to the app, not the base layer. AVOID Layer 1s relative to Applications (The short leg of the pair trade). L1s could develop new monetization layers or maintain a monetary premium as "digital gold/oil."
ETH AVOID
SOL AVOID
"I think nuclear has a ton of opportunity... not just because of demand side because of AI but also I think the innovations to build safe nuclear reactors will be faster." AI drives a dual-tailwind for nuclear: 1) Massive energy demand from data centers, and 2) AI accelerates the material science required to build safer, cheaper reactors. This creates a structural supercycle for uranium and nuclear infrastructure. LONG Nuclear producers and miners. Regulatory gridlock; public perception of nuclear safety; long lead times for reactor construction.
CCJ LONG
URA LONG
"I think we're going to see ASICs everywhere because chip design has been one of the most human capital constrained things out there." Chip design software (EDA) has been limited by the number of human engineers. AI removes this bottleneck, allowing companies to design custom chips (ASICs) for every specific workload. This leads to an explosion in volume for the software providers that power chip design. LONG EDA Software monopolies (Cadence/Synopsys). AI models eventually writing their own chip design code without legacy EDA tools (disintermediation).
CDNS LONG
SNPS LONG
"Whoever owns the customer relationship... and whoever owns the liquidity [wins]." AI agents and users will seek the path of least resistance. The value in crypto infrastructure won't accrue to the "pipes" (blockchains) but to the regulated endpoints that own the customer (Robinhood) and the deep liquidity pools (Coinbase). They are "natural monopolies." LONG Regulated Crypto/Fintech Infrastructure. Fee compression; decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Hyperliquid stealing market share.
COIN LONG
HOOD LONG
"AI is not making any more land." In a future where AI creates an abundance of digital goods and labor (deflation), capital will flee to assets that cannot be printed or automated. Physical land becomes the ultimate store of value and scarcity. LONG Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Commercial real estate collapse due to remote work/AI displacing office jobs.
VNQ LONG
"The winners in the equity markets right now have been concentrated in... memory stocks... areas of scarcity where there's a supply demand imbalance." While the rate of change for general Hyperscaler Capex may slow, specific components like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) remain the bottleneck for AI compute. These companies hold pricing power regardless of the broader tech cycle. LONG Memory manufacturers. Cyclical nature of the memory market; oversupply if Capex slows significantly.
MU LONG
13:01
Feb 27
Feb 27
HOOD
XLF
KRE
COIN
PLTR
▾
Robinhood is launching a "billion-dollar closed-end fund" (likely an IPO'd vehicle) that holds shares in high-demand private companies like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks. Historically, Robinhood struggled to offer private shares due to transfer restrictions (RoFRs) and operational friction (SPVs). By aggregating this into a public closed-end fund, they solve the "access" problem for retail and the "liquidity" problem for employees/founders. This creates a highly differentiated product with a recurring 2% management fee, positioning HOOD as the bridge between retail and private equity. LONG. This is a scalable structural advantage that competitors lack. Volatility in the underlying private marks; potential discount to NAV for the closed-end fund.
HOOD LONG
The OCC released guidance effectively prohibiting stablecoin issuers from passing yield to end customers. The speaker notes, "This is basically just being done to protect the banks... banks are scared shitless." While the speaker views this as "regressive" for innovation, the second-order effect is bullish for incumbent banks. By legally blocking fintechs/stablecoins from offering yield on deposits, the government is enforcing a "regulatory moat" that protects the banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) and prevents deposit flight to higher-yielding digital alternatives. LONG (Regulatory Capture Play). The banking lobby is successfully neutralizing the fintech threat. The guidance is just a proposal; future legislation could reverse this and allow yield pass-through.
XLF LONG
KRE LONG
Circle (issuer of USDC) posted strong earnings (beating consensus $0.43 vs $0.16) and its secondary market stock price is up ~50% ($60 to $90). Coinbase is the primary strategic partner and equity holder in Circle. While the speaker notes a "mix shift" where more USDC is off-Coinbase (meaning Coinbase takes a smaller % of the *total* pie), the massive expansion of the pie (Circle's valuation and adoption) directly benefits Coinbase's balance sheet and equity investment. If Circle is the "only pure play" on stablecoins and is winning, Coinbase is the best public proxy. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins; continued margin compression if USDC moves off-platform.
COIN LONG
The host highlights Michael Burry's recent analysis on Palantir, calling it "pretty eye-opening." Michael Burry is a legendary contrarian value investor. His attention on a specific ticker usually signals a deep dislocation (either a value buy or a conviction short). While the specific direction wasn't detailed in the clip, the endorsement of the *analysis* suggests PLTR is at a pivotal inflection point worthy of immediate attention. WATCH. Burry's positions are often volatile and contrarian; without reading the specific Substack entry, the direction is ambiguous.
PLTR WATCH
14:45
Feb 23
Feb 23
ICE
PYPL
BLK
▾
Bryan explicitly lists the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as a launch partner for Zero, stating they "stood on stage with... DTCC and the Intercontinental Exchange." He notes that institutions are driven by the fear of disruption and the desire to own the infrastructure of "next-generation markets" (24/7 trading). ICE (parent company of the NYSE) partnering with a high-throughput blockchain indicates a strategic pivot toward 24/7 settlement and tokenized equity trading. If Zero succeeds in becoming the rail for institutional capital, ICE is positioned to be the primary regulated bridge/venue for this volume, protecting its moat against crypto-native disruptors. LONG. ICE is effectively hedging its legacy monopoly by integrating the technology that threatens it. Regulatory roadblocks for 24/7 equity markets; failure of the Zero blockchain to gain traction.
ICE LONG
Bryan identifies PayPal (PYUSD) as a key customer/asset issuer they are building for. He states, "Our customers are USDT, WBTC... and PYUSD from PayPal." He argues that asset issuers are the "pull" that brings value to a chain. PayPal is aggressively pushing into the stablecoin market. By integrating with a 2 million TPS chain, PayPal can offer micro-transaction payments (paying "1/10,000th of a penny" in fees) that are impossible on Ethereum Mainnet. This enables new high-volume merchant use cases, driving PYUSD velocity and float revenue. LONG. PayPal is moving faster than other fintechs to utilize high-performance rails for actual commerce, not just speculation. Stablecoin regulation; lack of merchant adoption of crypto payments.
PYPL LONG
Bryan mentions "14 trillion dollar BlackRock saying every day that public chains... there actually is real appetite for using public chains." The launch of institutional-grade, high-throughput chains (like Zero) removes the technical bottlenecks (speed/cost) that prevented asset managers from tokenizing funds at scale. BlackRock is explicitly named as a driver of this demand. As infrastructure matures, BlackRock's tokenized AUM (e.g., BUIDL) is likely to expand significantly. LONG. BlackRock is positioning itself to be the dominant issuer of tokenized real-world assets (RWA). Slow regulatory approval for tokenized securities.
BLK LONG
13:01
Feb 20
Feb 20
COIN
GSOL
ETHE
HOOD
▾
Rob notes that while Base (Coinbase's L2) doesn't strictly "need" a token to function, if they launch one, "The easiest thing for them to do will be for to put a significant amount of it on the Coinbase balance sheet... and then you tell the investors that you are getting exposure to the base token through the Coinbase balance sheet holdings." Unlike standalone L2 projects (like Optimism) where value leakage occurs between the equity company and the token, Coinbase is positioning to capture the full economic value of the Base network. Whether through sequencer fees or holding a future token on the balance sheet, COIN equity becomes the direct proxy for the success of the Base ecosystem. LONG. COIN acts as a diversified infrastructure play (Exchange + L2 + Stablecoin yield) without the "worthless governance token" risk of standalone L2s. Regulatory action against Coinbase regarding staking or token classification; Base decentralization failing.
COIN LONG
"For the L1's... you have to decentralize like that is the only way the L1's work over time... you have to launch a token... The L2s frankly don't need tokens... they can use ETH, right, as a gas token." There is a fundamental "Reason to Exist" gap between L1 and L2 tokens. L1 tokens (Solana, Ethereum) are structurally required for network security (paying validators). L2 tokens are often superfluous governance instruments. Therefore, long-term investment capital will concentrate in the L1 assets that accrue real network value, while L2 tokens will suffer from a lack of utility. LONG L1 proxies (Solana/Ethereum) as the superior asset class over L2s. Technological obsolescence of current L1s; fragmentation of liquidity.
GSOL LONG
ETHE LONG
"Robinhood for instance... they've kind of got this Arbitrum side chain but you're taking a Robinhood counterparty risk... They really want to move into this kind of like exchange for everything model." Robinhood is attempting to replicate the Coinbase/Base model but with a more centralized approach (sidechain vs. L2). While they are entering the "on-chain settlement" race, their closed-loop system presents higher counterparty risk compared to decentralized L1s, potentially limiting institutional adoption of their specific chain infrastructure. WATCH. Monitor if their "Arbitrum sidechain" gains traction or if users prefer the more decentralized Base (Coinbase) ecosystem. Failure to attract developers to a centralized chain; regulatory scrutiny on crypto offerings.
HOOD WATCH
15:30
Feb 19
Feb 19
IBIT
RSP
UVXY
IGV
CLOU
▾
"Historically, it's usually touched the 200 week moving average... 200 week moving average at like 58k." Bitcoin is currently in a "chop" zone with downward variance. Technical history suggests a retest of the 200WMA is the standard bottoming procedure for the 4-year cycle. Wait for the ~$58k level to deploy capital; do not rush to bid the current chop. Front-running of the 200WMA level prevents the dip from going that low.
IBIT WATCH
BITO WATCH
"It's really hard to own the index when you're that concentrated... seeing those [active] managers actually outperform because breadth is increasing." The "Mag 7" trade is overcrowded and facing diminishing returns. Capital is rotating into the remaining 493 S&P stocks (value/industrials) which have better relative valuations. Long Equal Weight S&P 500 to capture widening market breadth. A recession hits cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies.
RSP LONG
"Volatility is super mispriced... we're thinking it should be trading much higher than it is probably like mid-20s upper 20s versus 17-18." The market is complacent at all-time highs with thinning momentum and accelerating geopolitical rumors (Iran). A "V-spike" (capitulation event) is statistically overdue and necessary to reset valuations for a safe entry. Long volatility as a hedge or speculative play on a market correction. Continued market apathy/grind-up (theta decay on volatility products).
UVXY LONG
VXX LONG
"Software names... trading like our altcoins... it's more of like a repricing now that everybody's kind of realizing that software is commoditized with cloud code." AI agents and coding assistants allow for the cheap, rapid replication of software products. This destroys the "moat" that historically justified high valuation multiples for SaaS companies. Avoid the sector as it undergoes a structural de-rating. AI integration actually boosts SaaS productivity/margins faster than commoditization hurts pricing power.
IGV AVOID
CLOU AVOID
"Apple... they do kind of own the end user... gargantuan balance sheet. They spend nothing on capex." In an environment where other tech giants are leveraging balance sheets for massive AI capex (increasing risk), Apple's cash-rich position and control of distribution (the iPhone) make it the premier defensive flight-to-safety trade within Big Tech. Long as a defensive rotation play. Failure to innovate in AI leads to perceived obsolescence.
AAPL LONG
"Options are still like it makes way too much sense for Robinhood to kill that... seems like such a natural fit for them." As crypto derivatives and on-chain options gain traction, Robinhood is the logical venue to capture retail flow by integrating these products (potentially via their own chain or simple UI). Long on the potential for dominant capture of the retail crypto-options market. Regulatory hurdles prevent product rollout; failure to execute against crypto-native competitors.
HOOD LONG
13:00
Feb 18
Feb 18
HOOD
COIN
NU
GS
BR
▾
Shalek notes that fintechs like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nubank have "innovation in their DNA" and are "risk-seeking" compared to 200-year-old banks. He highlights Robinhood's frustration with T+2 settlement (GameStop saga) as a driver to move to real-time, on-chain settlement. While traditional banks (JPM, BAC) move slowly due to regulatory fear and legacy tech, these "mid-age" fintechs (10-15 years old) are aggressively integrating stablecoins and blockchain rails to expand globally. They will capture the initial market share of retail on-chain finance before incumbents catch up. LONG. These are the pure-play proxies for the "Fintech x Crypto" convergence. Regulatory crackdowns on non-bank issuers; failure to monetize on-chain features.
HOOD LONG
COIN LONG
NU LONG
McDermott confirms Goldman Sachs is building its "Digital Asset Platform" on the Canton Network. He explicitly mentions Broadridge (BR) as an extensive user for collateral mobility and repo operations. Institutional adoption isn't happening on public Ethereum mainnet due to privacy requirements. It is happening on permissioned networks like Canton. Goldman and Broadridge are the first movers building the actual "plumbing" for institutional blockchain (collateral mobility, repo), positioning them to reduce back-office costs and increase liquidity efficiency. LONG. These are the infrastructure winners in the "Permissioned/Institutional" blockchain thesis. Adoption of permissioned chains stalls in favor of public chains (L2s); regulatory reversal.
GS LONG
BR LONG
Shalek argues that one would have to be a "zealot or ideologue" to believe that centralized entities like ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), Markit (owned by S&P Global), or card networks (Visa/Mastercard) will disappear. He calls them "critical infrastructure." The crypto narrative often assumes total disruption of intermediaries. Shalek's "Symbiotic" thesis suggests these incumbents will adapt and coexist with decentralized rails. Betting on their demise is a mistake; they are likely to integrate stablecoins/blockchain to reinforce their moats. LONG. A contrarian "safety" play against the "crypto kills everything" narrative. Rapid adoption of purely peer-to-peer payment rails (stablecoins) bypassing card networks entirely.
ICE LONG
SPGI LONG
V LONG
MA LONG
McDermott highlights that the buy-side (specifically naming BlackRock) operates under different regulatory frameworks than banks, allowing them to move faster in digital assets. While banks are constrained by balance sheet rules (SAB 121), asset managers like BlackRock are aggressively tokenizing funds (BUIDL) and launching ETFs. They are effectively front-running the banks in the asset tokenization race. LONG. BlackRock is the premier vehicle for institutional RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization. ETF fee compression; regulatory scrutiny on asset managers holding crypto.
BLK LONG
13:01
Feb 16
Feb 16
ETH
COIN
ENA
SOL
HOOD
▾
"I don't own it anymore because I fundamentally think that I cannot justify the value proposition or the value capture of Ethereum... it is a broken bankrupt model." The "Rollup-Centric Roadmap" has successfully scaled execution off-chain, but it has cannibalized L1 revenue. If L2s (like Base or MegaETH) keep 99% of the fees and only pay pennies for settlement blobs, the fundamental DCF model for ETH the asset collapses. Avoid ETH as an investment; it is infrastructure becoming a commodity. "Monetary Premium" returns if ETH becomes the de facto collateral for all L2 DeFi, driving demand regardless of gas fees.
ETH AVOID
"Base... taking 98% of whatever... margin they have... Base doesn't have a token. I guess you could buy a Coinbase stock." While other L2 tokens (ARB, OP) are struggling due to governance-only utility and token dilution, Base is generating massive, direct revenue (sequencer fees). Since Base has no token, 100% of this high-margin revenue accrues to Coinbase's equity. Long COIN as the most direct way to capture the profitability of the L2 ecosystem without the dilution risk of L2 governance tokens. Regulatory crackdowns on sequencer revenue or forced decentralization of the Base sequencer reducing margins.
COIN LONG
"That's an arrangement we have with Ethena. So Ethena helped us launch USDM... the rewards that come from that are collected by the foundation." MegaETH is explicitly rejecting USDC/USDT to avoid "value leakage" to TradFi (BlackRock/Cantor). Instead, they are integrating Ethena (USDe) to back their native stablecoin. As MegaETH grows its "Consumer DeFi" ecosystem, it directly drives TVL and demand for Ethena's product. Long ENA as a beta play on the adoption of high-performance L2s that prefer crypto-native yield over T-bills. Ethena's basis trade yield collapses or smart contract risk in the backing mechanism.
ENA LONG
"I think we've acknowledged over the last few years that the value is going to be driven towards execution, right? That's largely what Solana was pivoting itself on." The market currently pays a premium for "Execution Environments" (where the user activity happens) rather than "Settlement Layers." Until MegaETH or similar next-gen L2s are live and proven, Solana remains the monopoly on high-performance execution. Long SOL as the incumbent winner of the "execution premium" thesis. MegaETH (or Monad) successfully launches and siphons liquidity/users by offering better performance and EVM compatibility.
SOL LONG
"Robinhood... making options trading simple... whenever you collapse trading fees to zero, you get like Jevons paradox... you're going to get a ton of activity." The speaker highlights that "Consumer DeFi" is moving toward gamified, simple interfaces (like Robinhood) rather than complex technical ones. Robinhood pioneered the model that crypto is now trying to replicate. As crypto retail returns, they will gravitate toward the simplified UX that HOOD already dominates. Long HOOD as the TradFi proxy for the "gamification of finance" trend discussed. Regulatory restrictions on gamified trading features.
HOOD LONG
13:30
Feb 13
Feb 13
BLK
COIN
ETH
V
BEN
▾
Rob and Rebecca discuss the "BlackRock Uniswap integration" and mention that "Franklin Templeton" (BEN) is actively involved, with an executive potentially sitting on the LayerZero board. Rob states, "Global finance is moving on-chain." Traditional asset managers are not just dabbling; they are integrating DeFi rails (Securitize, tokenized funds). This opens a new distribution channel for their products (money market funds on-chain) and modernizes their backend, reducing costs. LONG these asset managers as they capture the "Real World Asset" (RWA) tokenization trend. Regulatory friction slows down institutional adoption; on-chain liquidity remains fragmented.
BLK LONG
BEN LONG
Rebecca states that the industry is "closer to the finish line than ever" regarding the market structure bill, estimating a ~45% chance of passing. She notes specific wins in the bill regarding "self-custody" and "issuing tokens in the US." Coinbase has been trading at a discount due to regulatory existential risk (SEC lawsuits). If a bill passes that explicitly allows for token issuance and protects non-custodial software, the primary bear case for Coinbase evaporates, and they become the primary regulated venue for these new assets. LONG as a play on regulatory clarity and the legalization of the US crypto-token market. The bill fails to pass in an election year; the "yield" component of stablecoins gets banned, hurting COIN's revenue from USDC.
COIN LONG
Santi observes that despite the "hate" Ethereum receives, "Ethereum is winning that market" regarding traditional finance settlement. However, he argues the industry hasn't "solved for the demand side" and questions if new infrastructure is actually needed. While bullish on the concept of finance moving on-chain, Santi implies that simply building faster chains (supply) doesn't create users (demand). If TradFi moves on-chain, they will likely stick to the established winner (Ethereum) rather than speculative new L1s, but the overall sector growth depends on demand, not tech specs. WATCH ETH as the default settlement layer for TradFi, but remain cautious on "Alt-L1s" that promise speed without users. L2 fragmentation fractures liquidity; high fees on L1 drive users to Solana or other high-throughput chains.
ETH NEUTRAL
Rob predicts, "On the crypto credit card side we're going to get hundred billion dollars worth of settlement with Visa." He also notes that "businesses are using stablecoins today" for B2B payments regardless of legislation. Stablecoins are moving from speculative trading tools to genuine payment rails. Visa is explicitly named as the settlement layer capturing this volume. As stablecoin usage grows to $10T (Rob's aggressive prediction) or even $100B in settlement, Visa captures fees without taking crypto balance sheet risk. LONG as a beneficiary of stablecoin volume settlement. Regulatory crackdown on stablecoins reduces overall transaction volume; competing L1 rails bypass Visa entirely.
V LONG
13:30
Feb 09
Feb 09
V
WU
COIN
▾
Rain is a Visa Principal Member that settles directly with Visa using stablecoins. Additionally, Western Union has partnered with Rain and is building stablecoin settlement flows specifically on Solana. The market views "Crypto vs. TradFi" as a zero-sum game, but the reality is integration. Visa and Western Union are upgrading their backend rails with blockchain to reduce collateral requirements (from 4 days to 1 day) and settlement times. This lowers their cost of capital and defends their moats against crypto-native disruptors. LONG. These legacy giants are successfully co-opting the technology to improve margins rather than being displaced by it. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoin settlement; failure of the Solana network (for WU).
V LONG
WU LONG
Charles admits that Coinbase (and Gemini) currently dominate the card market because they have the "crypto everything card" and a massive existing user base. While Rain builds B2B infrastructure, Coinbase owns the B2C relationship. In a world where "1% of US dollars are stablecoins" grows to 10% or 50%, the primary consumer interface (Coinbase) captures the float, the interchange, and the user data. They are the "super app" incumbent that niche cards must compete against. LONG. They are the default winner of US-based stablecoin adoption. Fee compression; loss of market share to vertical-specific fintech apps.
COIN LONG
13:01
Feb 06
Feb 06
GOOGL
AMZN
SLV
SNOW
NOW
▾
Preference stated for Alphabet (over Microsoft) and Amazon (over Walmart). Despite the "SaaS derating" mentioned elsewhere, the hyperscalers (Google/Amazon) are viewed as the superior long-term holds, likely due to their entrenched infrastructure moats and AI optionality compared to peers. LONG. Antitrust breakup actions or loss of search dominance (for Google).
GOOGL LONG
AMZN LONG
Silver is down 10% in a single day and is described as "more volatile than a meme stock." While Gold is catching a sovereign bid, Silver is behaving like a high-beta speculative asset that is being liquidated alongside crypto. It lacks the institutional stability of Gold. AVOID (Too much volatility without the safe-haven premium of Gold). A massive industrial demand spike or a short squeeze could reverse the trend rapidly.
SLV AVOID
The market is violently selling off SaaS stocks (e.g., Google down 6%, entire sector rerating) based on the narrative that AI is an existential threat to their business models. This selling is indiscriminate and algorithmic ("quant reads headline... trim risk"). However, fundamental businesses like Snowflake and ServiceNow are durable and "not going to go away," making the current valuation compression a mispricing of the actual AI risk. LONG (Contrarian accumulation on deep weakness). AI disruption accelerates faster than expected, permanently impairing SaaS growth rates.
SNOW LONG
NOW LONG
Major capital allocators, including sovereign nations (China) and crypto-native giants (Tether), are actively "stacking" gold reserves while bypassing Bitcoin. Liquidity is flowing into traditional hard assets as a defensive measure. The divergence between Gold (ripping) and Bitcoin (lagging) indicates that Gold is currently winning the "store of value" bid in this specific macro cycle. LONG (Follow the sovereign and smart money flows). A sudden "risk-on" rotation back into high-beta assets could see capital rotate out of defensive commodities.
GLD LONG
Market sentiment is extremely bearish, but consensus among institutional players is to "dip their toes back in" around the high $50k to low $60k range. Smart money with deep balance sheets (whales, early adopters) historically steps in to accumulate during these "bombardments of negative news." The anticipated bottom is likely front-run by these players. WATCH (Set accumulation limits in the $58k-$62k range). A break below $50k could trigger further liquidation cascades from levered positions.
BTC WATCH
When forced to choose between Apple and Tesla, the preference is Tesla. The "Addressable Market" for Tesla (robotics, AI, energy, transport) offers significantly higher convexity and growth potential compared to the mature hardware cycle of Apple. LONG. Execution risk on FSD/Robotaxi timelines; continued EV margin compression.
TSLA LONG
In a direct comparison between Nvidia and AMD, the choice is Nvidia. The market is currently driven by a "dilution of attention" where capital concentrates in the primary winners of the dominant narrative (AI). Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in this infrastructure build-out. LONG. AI capex spending slows down or competition from custom silicon erodes margins.
NVDA LONG
When comparing financial assets, the preference is explicitly for Visa (over Mastercard and Silver) and JPMorgan (over Mastercard and Avalanche). In a volatile, "violent" market environment, capital prefers the dominant, entrenched financial rails (Visa) and the "Fortress Balance Sheet" banking leader (JPM) over secondary players or volatile commodities like Silver. LONG (Flight to quality in financials). Regulatory caps on interchange fees or credit deterioration in a recession.
V LONG
JPM LONG
15:01
Feb 05
Feb 05
HNT
HYPE
SOL
ETH
BTC
▾
Helium (HNT) is down ~99% from highs but is now profitable, generating revenue, and expanding operations (e.g., Mexico launch). The "DePin" (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) sector has been decimated, creating deep value opportunities. Unlike the hype phase, the project now has fundamental business traction while trading at a distressed valuation (<$200m implied). Long HNT as a deep value/turnaround play. The DePin sector may never recover investor sentiment; execution risk on physical network expansion.
HNT LONG
Hyperliquid is trading at $33.70 and showing relative strength while the rest of the market (BTC/ETH/SOL) is selling off aggressively. It is generating significant revenue and volume (over $1 billion on silver perps). In market downturns, assets that show relative strength tend to lead the recovery ("the fastest horse"). Hyperliquid is decoupling from the broader crypto beta because it is a revenue-generating business shipping products users need now (HIP-3, Spot, EVM), rather than promising future tech. Long HYPE as the primary "flight to quality" within crypto. Regulatory crackdown on decentralized exchanges; valuation concerns if the broader market capitulates further.
HYPE LONG
Solana has dropped under $100, a psychological and technical support level. While the "L1 premium" is fading, Solana is viewed as a functional business compared to Ethereum. Even if L1s re-rate lower, Solana is significantly undervalued relative to Ethereum at these levels. The speaker explicitly states they "don't see how you can hold ETH over SOL" and would rather ride SOL to zero than hold ETH. Accumulate SOL in the $90s as a high-beta play for when risk appetite returns. Continued apathy toward L1s; further market-wide liquidation cascades.
SOL LONG
Ethereum is trading at $2.15k with a market cap of ~$260 billion. Vitalik Buterin recently posted about pivoting back to scaling the L1, admitting the L2 roadmap had flaws. Ethereum is priced like a massive tech monopoly (comparable to Anthropic) but operates like a "non-profit research experiment" with bureaucracy and no cohesive product direction. The pivot back to L1 scaling after years of L2 focus destroys confidence in the roadmap. It lacks the revenue of Hyperliquid and the performance culture of Solana. Avoid ETH; it is the "funding source" for the market correction and lacks a bullish narrative compared to competitors. ETH flows could return if it is viewed as a safe haven or "money" during extreme volatility.
ETH AVOID
Bitcoin has corrected to $74k. There are major technical levels (200-week moving average) and psychological support at $60k. The US administration has an incentive to stimulate the economy ("run it hot") leading into the midterm elections. This liquidity injection will eventually lift risk assets. The $60k-$74k zone represents a long-term accumulation area for strategic buyers. Buy spot BTC in the $60k-$74k range, anticipating a liquidity-driven rally later in the year. Equities market collapse (S&P 500 puking) would drag BTC lower; Quantum computing FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) causing structural selling.
BTC LONG
There is "blood in software names." AI agents are allowing users to bypass traditional SaaS tools by coding their own solutions or using APIs directly, eroding pricing power. The market is repricing software companies because their "moats" are being destroyed by AI efficiency. High-margin SaaS businesses are losing their ability to charge premiums, leading to a structural de-rating of the sector. Avoid Software/SaaS equities (represented by IGV). AI adoption might actually increase software usage volume, offsetting pricing power declines.
IGV AVOID
13:01
Feb 04
Feb 04
MUFG
SMFG
V
PYPL
NET
▾
Japan is the second-largest holder of US Treasuries. Afifi explicitly states that "Japan into the US for tokenized treasuries is a huge opportunity" and that they are running pilots in Q1 to help large Japanese financial institutions go in and out of tokenized treasuries efficiently to earn yield on idle cash. The primary beneficiaries of this efficiency are the Japanese mega-banks (Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui) which hold massive USD reserves. By utilizing stablecoin rails and tokenized treasuries, these banks can significantly reduce friction costs and increase yield velocity on their balance sheets. LONG. These institutions are the direct customers for the enterprise-grade infrastructure HiFi and Canton are building. Regulatory hurdles in Japan or the US regarding tokenized assets; slow institutional adoption rates.
MUFG LONG
SMFG LONG
Afifi states, "We also work closely with Visa to allow us to pay out to 170 countries." There is a misconception that stablecoins will simply replace card networks. In reality, infrastructure providers like HiFi are using Visa's "Direct" rails to solve the "last mile" problem (getting crypto back into fiat/bank accounts). Visa effectively becomes the off-ramp infrastructure for the stablecoin economy, capturing volume rather than losing it. LONG. Visa is entrenching itself as the necessary bridge between on-chain settlement and real-world spending. Development of closed-loop stablecoin payment systems that bypass card networks entirely (e.g., wallet-to-wallet commerce).
V LONG
When discussing PayPal's stablecoin (PYUSD), Sariniki notes it allows them "to experiment with... incentives" and maintain "agency to make those changes instead of having to rely upon somebody else." By launching a proprietary stablecoin, PayPal vertically integrates the settlement layer. Instead of paying fees to Circle (USDC) or banks, they capture the float interest and transaction fees within their own "Venmo loop." This transforms them from a payment gateway into a monetary issuer, improving margin and ecosystem lock-in. LONG. Control over the stablecoin issuance allows for better unit economics on transactions within the PayPal/Venmo ecosystem. Regulatory crackdowns on non-bank stablecoin issuers; lack of adoption compared to ubiquitous pairs like USDC/USDT.
PYPL LONG
The host mentions Cloudflare's announcement regarding "Net Dollar" and their focus on "agentic commerce" (AI agents paying AI agents). Cloudflare is positioning itself not just as web security, but as the payment rail for the AI agent economy. If AI agents require micropayments or high-frequency settlement that traditional banking cannot handle, Cloudflare's edge network combined with a stablecoin mechanism could capture a new, high-growth payment flow. WATCH. It is early, but this represents a potential TAM expansion for Cloudflare into fintech. Execution risk; competition from Stripe or native crypto protocols.
NET WATCH
09:00
Feb 02
Feb 02
COIN
HOOD
XLF
KBE
BLK
▾
Belshe states that the "digital asset industry... is going to massively grow" because regulatory changes (specifically the "Clarity Act") have "tripled our TAM last year" and will likely "double our TAM again." He notes that Wall Street firms are now "willing and able to participate" but require regulated, public infrastructure. BitGo's IPO validates the sector, but the broader thesis is that regulatory clarity is unlocking institutional capital. Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) are the primary US-listed beneficiaries of this "legitimization" wave. Robinhood is explicitly mentioned as handling 25% of the IPO allocation with "billions in demand," proving retail engagement is back. Coinbase benefits from the same "flight to quality" and market structure shift toward regulated prime services that Belshe describes. LONG. These are the "picks and shovels" for the regulated era of crypto adoption. Regulatory reversals or a failure of the "Clarity Act" to pass/implement as expected.
COIN LONG
HOOD LONG
Belshe compares Wall Street banks to animals on the "Galapagos Islands" that have "never seen a predator before." He explicitly states, "The predator is BitGo... We're going to disrupt banks." He argues banks are incompetent for not passing the risk-free rate to depositors, whereas stablecoins can and will. This is a classic "Innovator's Dilemma" argument. If stablecoins successfully function as better payment rails and yield-bearing deposit accounts (as Belshe predicts), traditional banks (represented by XLF and the Bank ETF KBE) face an existential threat to their cheapest source of funding (deposits) and payment revenue. AVOID (or SHORT for aggressive long-term books). The sector faces structural disruption from DeFi and stablecoins. Regulatory moats protecting banks could remain stronger than the technological disruption for longer than expected.
XLF AVOID/SHORT
KBE AVOID/SHORT
Belshe mentions "Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock" saying "every asset, every bond, every token, everything can be tokenized." He lists BlackRock and Fidelity as the target client base for BitGo's infrastructure. While BitGo provides the plumbing, BlackRock is the architect of the "tokenized assets" thesis. If Belshe is right that the industry is moving toward "tokenized equities" and "better banks," BlackRock is the primary incumbent aggressively pivoting to capture this value (via ETFs and tokenized funds like BUIDL). They are the bridge between the "Galapagos" and the "Predators." LONG. BlackRock is successfully hedging its traditional business by leading the crypto adoption curve. Slow institutional adoption or reputational risk if the crypto sector suffers another catastrophic failure.
BLK LONG
Choose Sources
Loading sources...