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16:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY 1ST
USD 1ST
GLD 1ST
XLV 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight US equities for relative exceptionalism.
Defends US equity exceptionalism and recommends a strategic overweight to US equities within a global equity portfolio. The US is better positioned to exploit AI and IT productivity, has labor flexibility to rationalize workforces, has better demographics than Europe or China, and has benefited from decades of rising profit share of GDP supported by falling effective corporate tax rates. Returns may be lower than history, but still positive in real terms and better than alternatives.
SPY LONG
Hedge or avoid US dollar exposure.
Declines to defend US dollar exceptionalism. Fiscal sustainability concerns, debt service spending crossing over defense spending, geopolitical weaponization of the dollar after the Russia-Ukraine invasion, and BICS de-dollarization attempts make the dollar riskier. He does not expect dollar depreciation against other currencies, but says non-dollar investors should hedge more dollar exposure, and the depreciation story is mainly against gold.
USD AVOID
Own gold as portfolio diversifier.
AllianceBernstein has been strategically overweight gold. Gold is no longer a commodity but money in this environment, benefits from desires to diversify away from the dollar, and has maintained roughly zero correlation with equities across inflation regimes. He uses a long-run real return assumption of about 1% plus support from BRICS and especially Chinese official buying, and sees gold as a key diversifier now that bonds no longer play that role.
GLD LONG
Healthcare offers defensive AI beneficiary exposure.
Healthcare is attractive strategically because it sits at the nexus of diversification, demographics, AI, and valuation. Demographics support demand and sticky pricing power, healthcare is a plausible AI beneficiary, and the sector's P/E relative to the market is low compared with its 20-30 year trading range. Policy uncertainty is a different risk from the AI trade, so healthcare offers defensive equity diversification.
XLV LONG
Use commodities and energy for inflation protection.
There is a strategic case for commodity exposure, including energy and base metals, as a source of real return and inflation protection. Exposure can be gained through direct commodities and through equities linked to those commodities. Energy equities stand out for income and free cash flow. This is separate from gold, which he now treats as money rather than a commodity.
XLE LONG
DBC LONG
Copper benefits from AI and energy capex.
Copper is at all-time highs but not widely discussed. It has structural demand from AI physical capex and the energy transition. Base metals are also part of the portfolio response to expected higher inflation volatility from deglobalization and geopolitics, which should create more supply shocks over time.
COPPER LONG
Hold small silver allocation for diversification.
Silver deserves a small allocation as part of a non-fiat allocation dominated by gold. It is not a fundamental standalone bullish call, but silver is differentiated because investors play a much smaller role in that market than they do proportionally in gold, providing diversification within the non-fiat bucket.
SILVER LONG
Small Bitcoin allocation behind gold.
Bitcoin should be a small part of the strategic non-fiat allocation, dominated by gold. He changed his view during COVID from seeing no role for Bitcoin to accepting a limited asset allocation role. More regulatory and custody clarity could bring in additional investors.
BTC LONG
HIGH
15:46
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
2h
ZS
▾
HIGH
Record results, AI traction, bullish fiscal 2027
Jay Chaudhry calls the reported quarter a record from any measurement: revenue and recurring revenue growing 25% at scale, IRR above $3.8 billion, 24% non-GAAP operating margin, all-time-high sales productivity, and record million-dollar customer deals. He says AI traction and agentic hacking concerns are creating strong demand for Zscaler's Zero Trust Exchange, the company built a record Q4 pipeline, and he is very bullish on fiscal 2027.
ZS LONG
HIGH
15:45
Sep 04
Sep 04
Joseph Wang
2h
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
War end lowers yields, stocks surge.
Joseph Wang argues that global yields have been driven higher by a common factor, energy prices, since the Iran war began. If the war ends, he expects energy prices to ease, yields and inflation to fall, and the stock market to surge, making war resolution a bullish inflection for equities and Treasury prices.
SPY LONG
HIGH
15:42
Sep 04
Sep 04
USD/CAD
▾
MED
Tariff shock priced, loonie range-bound.
What is not priced in is the growth hit to Canadian exporters in steel, aluminum, and autos. If that damage materializes, the Bank of Canada could get more room to cut rates than the Fed, widening the rate differential and potentially weakening the Canadian dollar. Watch the rate differential, not the tariff rhetoric.
USD/CAD WATCH
MED
15:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
CoinDesk
2h
USDC 1ST
USDT 1ST
HYPE
LINK
▾
HIGH
Bank stablecoin threatens Circle and Tether
21 major global banks including Bank of America, Citi, and Goldman Sachs committed to launching a USD-denominated stablecoin. Katherine views this as the bank version of the Open Standard announcement and argues regulated depository banks have a completely different structure and motivation. This creates real competition for legacy stablecoin issuers, putting Circle and Tether under siege.
USDC AVOID
USDT AVOID
Bitnomial licenses offer Hyperliquid onshore path
She does not see an easy legal path for Hyperliquid perps to migrate to the US as currently structured, but Kraken/Payward's Bitnomial acquisition gives a full stack of CFTC derivatives licenses. She expects Bitnomial's DCM to list selected CFTC-regulated derivative contracts economically linked to Hyperliquid markets rather than giving direct access to Hyperliquid's decentralized platform. That is a creative way for Hyperliquid to move onshore and other DCMs may follow.
HYPE WATCH
Chainlink benefits from tokenization push
The London Stock Exchange's plan to bring its 100 largest listed companies onchain is part of tokenization becoming the future. Chainlink's value proposition is to support tokenization growth and bring traditional financial services onchain, including data and data flow into traditional exchanges, so the initiative is positive for Chainlink.
LINK LONG
HIGH
15:10
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
FXY 1ST
XLY
COPPER
KBE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equities still favored over bonds.
Despite 10-year Treasury yields around 4.7%, bonds have not yet reached a level that pulls capital out of equities and into fixed income. Earnings levels remain exceptional, so the allocation call is still more favorable to equities over bonds until yields become more competitive.
SPY LONG
Yen intervention working; yen strengthening.
Japanese intervention has been effective, driving dollar-yen from about 1.65 toward the mid-1.50s. Euro-yen and high-carry crosses such as peso-yen have also broken down, supporting continued yen strength even though the broad dollar call remains difficult.
FXY LONG
Cyclical weakness emerging in discretionary stocks.
Momentum is bleeding below the surface: 20-day lows are expanding and roughly 30% of the index has made a one-month low, with modest cyclical deterioration showing up in groups like consumer discretionary. The open question is whether this is normal pre-midterm seasonality or an emerging cyclical slowdown, so it deserves attention before chasing cyclicals.
XLY WATCH
Copper strength leads metals and resource stocks.
Resource-driven currencies are acting well, copper is making new highs, and copper stocks continue to act well. In the metals and macro complex, he ranks copper at the top and basic resource stocks next, with some additional support from gold.
COPPER LONG
Deregulation could unlock small-bank lending.
Small-bank deregulation is moving forward through regulatory and legislative efforts and can unlock more lending, helping smaller institutions compete nationally. She also sees support from administration efforts to reactivate midmarket manufacturing and small-business defense contracts.
KBE LONG
SanDisk cheap versus memory earnings power.
Memory pricing has been exceptionally strong, with DRAM and NAND up sharply, but memory stocks like SanDisk are trading at very cheap multiples because investors doubt earnings sustainability. He values SanDisk at roughly 11 times forward earnings versus a market around five times.
SNDK LONG
Bonds now more attractive than stocks.
The Treasury curve has become more attractive and the risk/reward has shifted in favor of bonds relative to stocks. From a valuation standpoint, bonds are more attractive than equities than they have been since the peak of the tech bubble, and the firm is telling clients to buy bonds.
TLT LONG
Healthcare overweight for defense and independent earnings.
NewEdge just added an overweight to health care because it is relatively defensive, not deeply embedded in the AI story, and has potential for independent earnings increases if AI political noise or broader market jitters grow.
XLV LONG
Risk assets can withstand rate hike.
Risk assets can withstand a 25-basis-point Fed hike because equities are driven more by strong earnings and the AI boom than by discount-rate moves, while credit quality is exceptionally strong and spreads are tight. The bigger issue is the inflation trajectory and the Fed's response to it.
Equities LONG
High-quality fixed income yields remain attractive.
Risk assets can withstand a 25-basis-point Fed hike because equities are driven more by strong earnings and the AI boom than by discount-rate moves, while credit quality is exceptionally strong and spreads are tight. The bigger issue is the inflation trajectory and the Fed's response to it.
LQD LONG
HIGH
14:22
Sep 04
Sep 04
WTI 1ST
▾
MED
Crude prices expected to decrease
World markets currently expect crude prices to decrease over the next few months, implying near-term downside for oil prices.
WTI SHORT
MED
14:10
Sep 04
Sep 04
XLE
▾
MED
Energy shock drives inflation and Fed policy.
The energy shock is the marginal inflation change this year, passing through from headline inflation into core inflation. That pass-through has shifted the Federal Reserve debate from continued cuts at the start of the year toward possible hikes, making energy the key variable to monitor for inflation and Fed policy.
XLE WATCH
MED
14:08
Sep 04
Sep 04
SMH 1ST
8299.TW 1ST
TSM
▾
HIGH
Chip suppliers bullish on AI supercycle
Semiconductor suppliers at SEMICON Taiwan are showing extreme bullishness on a continued AI buildout, with some describing the current period as a multi-year supercycle.
SMH LONG
First year of ten-year supercycle
Phison, a maker of NAND flash controllers used in data centers, believes the industry is in the first year of a 10-year supercycle based on its projections and order book.
8299.TW LONG
TSMC chip tool demand doubled
TSMC, the world's largest semiconductor fab, says its need for chip-making tools has doubled since the end of last year, and demand is supported by Nvidia and other large customers continuing to order chips.
TSM LONG
HIGH
14:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
4h
SPY FLIP
TLT FLIP
UKGILT 1ST
JGBUX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Strong jobs lift Fed odds, hurting equities.
The strong August jobs report is a relief for the labor market but not for investors because it will slowly lift the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September and push bond yields higher; higher yields and the more hawkish Fed path are both negative for equities.
SPY SHORT
TLT SHORT
Bond selloff continues; UK Japan France vulnerable.
The global bond sell-off is not over; markets will continue to see upward pressure on yields following a broad selloff of global government bonds. The UK, Japan, and France are particularly vulnerable to sovereign debt problems.
UKGILT SHORT
JGBUX SHORT
HIGH
14:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
14:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
13:41
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
4h
XLK
▾
MED
AI productivity boom resembles internet era
The AI effect is analogous to the internet-driven productivity boom seen during the Greenspan era, when productivity growth allowed high growth and low inflation. Hassett says the current AI effect may be very analogous, implying AI can support productivity-led growth with low inflation.
XLK LONG
MED
13:38
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
4h
TLT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Strong jobs report should push rates higher
The August jobs report came in much stronger than expected across payrolls, manufacturing jobs, hours worked, labor force participation and underemployment, indicating a strong economy that should push interest rates higher even though deficits may be a negative offset.
TLT LONG
HIGH
13:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
196170.KQ
005380.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
267260.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Reduce Alteogen on weak chart supply.
Despite Alteogen's large platform contract, Cha says the chart is not one to chase: it made an upper tail on Wednesday, a black candle on Thursday, and Friday's small green candle left price below 300,000 won while volume expanded on the decline. She believes foreign and institutional investors are trimming, so buying this chart now is not textbook and she recommends reducing/trimming exposure even though the stock may rise later.
196170.KQ AVOID
Avoid Hyundai Motor until 400,000-won breakout.
Robot-related names such as Robotis were strong, but Hyundai Motor did not respond and its volume has roughly halved compared with the period before it was treated as a robot play. Retail and investor interest is fading, there are few new buyers, and the stock has slid. Cha says Hyundai Motor must break back above 400,000 won to regain a trend, so until then it is unattractive.
005380.KS AVOID
Buy Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix on breakout.
Cha argues market sentiment is concentrating in Samsung Electronics over Samsung Electro-Mechanics: Samsung Electronics is cheaper, offers at least 30% upside, and has a Nomura target around 600,000 won. If Samsung Electronics prints a strong bullish breakout through its base, money should chase Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold super-high-voltage power equipment long term.
Power equipment has become heavy but remains a long-term investment supported by AI-driven power infrastructure demand. Names such as HD Hyundai Electric, LS Electric, and Hyosung Heavy Industries are super-high-voltage beneficiaries; she suggests treating them like a long-term position, adding on shocks rather than expecting fast moves.
267260.KS LONG
010120.KS LONG
298040.KS LONG
Trade nuclear only, not long-term hold.
Nuclear power will eventually happen, with SMR expected around 2030 and Hyundai Construction's Westinghouse collaboration still alive. But the timing is uncertain, so Cha views it as a momentum/trading theme for fast-moving traders; long-term holders who bury money may be frustrated, so it is better to trade than to hold indefinitely.
000720.KS WATCH
034020.KS WATCH
SK Innovation chart is attractive.
In contrast to EcoPro, SK Innovation's chart is attractive and investors are starting to view it as a refinery-plus story. Cha highlights it as a name where sentiment and chart are turning positive.
096770.KS LONG
Avoid secondary battery materials, especially EcoPro.
Secondary battery materials are out of favor and should be approached cautiously. EcoPro's chart is not attractive and is correcting, while overall market interest in battery materials is low; Cha says investors should be careful with battery material names rather than chasing them.
086520.KQ AVOID
Watch Hanmi Semiconductor for semiconductor breakout signal.
Hanmi Semiconductor has begun to stir and printed a strong bullish candle, but it has not yet broken out of its sideways range. Cha is watching it as a chart signal; if a similar strong base breakout appears on Samsung Electronics, that would be the trigger to chase Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
042700.KS WATCH
Samsung Electro-Mechanics sideways; wait for Samsung lead.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is in a sideways 'chicken-neck' phase: investors prefer Samsung Electronics over it, but it is still tied to Samsung Electronics and has MLCC exposure that could outperform under certain scenarios. Cha does not see a clear reason to buy it before Samsung Electronics moves.
009150.KS WATCH
Prefer Simmtech over Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
Between Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Simmtech, Cha prefers Simmtech within the substrate group because its trading volume is stirring and it has the better relative chart. However, if the choice is Samsung Electro-Mechanics versus Samsung Electronics, sentiment currently favors Samsung Electronics.
222800.KQ LONG
Watch bottom-volume reversals like Medytox, Robotis.
Cha recommends using HTS auto-transition chart screening to find stocks basing with volume expansion. Medytox, Gaon Cable, and Robotis are current examples showing bottom-volume stirring, with the entry trigger being a strong green candle plus a volume kick.
086900.KQ WATCH
000500.KS WATCH
108490.KQ WATCH
HIGH
13:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Bankless
5h
TSLA
META
UBER 1ST
AAPL
▾
HIGH
Cybercab cost edge threatens Uber.
Tesla's Cybercab has officially launched in Austin as the first full autonomous city rollout. Josh says the Cybercab gets about 150 Wh/mile, is built for lower cost, and therefore has a much lower cost per mile. He argues it is almost half the price of Uber without tips and that competitors will struggle to match once Cybercabs scale, calling it the beginning of a one-way Cybercab takeover across cities.
TSLA LONG
UBER AVOID
Meta's cheap fast models crush rivals.
Meta released MuseSpark 1.3, its fourth model in five to six weeks, as a specialized reasoning/agentic coding model that is the cheapest way to get most tasks done. Ejaaz argues Meta's strategy is to provide the cheapest intelligence while it catches up to frontier labs, making enterprises second-guess Anthropic and OpenAI. He also says Meta's model is better than Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash and that Meta has finally crushed Google.
META LONG
Apple's new hardware era drives upgrades.
Apple is entering a new hardware era under new CEO John Turnus, a 27-year Apple hardware expert. Josh highlights the upcoming Apple hardware event, an expected foldable iPhone, a new 18 Pro, and an iOS 27 handoff feature that lets users dual-wield devices on one plan. He says he will buy both iPhones and sees this as a new period of Apple hardware innovation after Tim Cook's run.
AAPL LONG
HIGH
12:54
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY FLIP
QQQ 1ST
▾
MED
Hot jobs data pressures equities.
The August jobs report was strong across the board—payrolls above estimates, positive revisions, wage growth rebounding, and labor force participation rising—so good economic news is bad news for stocks because it keeps Federal Reserve rate-hike risk alive and pushes bond yields higher, with S&P 500 futures falling and Nasdaq trimming gains.
SPY SHORT
QQQ SHORT
MED
12:48
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
VTI
▾
HIGH
Stay invested in stocks through volatility.
Booth argues investors should stay invested in equities through volatility instead of panicking. He uses 2020 as an example: the market fell more than 20% in Q1 on pandemic fears, then rose about 50% over the next nine months, and long-term stocks return about 10% annually only for those who remain invested.
SPY LONG
Buy broad index funds, avoid active.
Sixty years of data show professional managers generally fail to beat the market, so ordinary investors can do as well as insiders by buying the broad market inexpensively through index funds instead of paying for active management.
VTI LONG
HIGH
12:48
Sep 04
Sep 04
AAPL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Apple lags in AI talent strategy.
Apple's real problem is software and AI, not hardware. It is losing its best AI talent to Meta and others, has no frontier model strategy, has no real agentic AI strategy beyond current products, and has nothing significant in robotics. The new hardware-engineer CEO must recruit the best AI talent and show AI deployment that cuts costs and accelerates revenue.
AAPL AVOID
HIGH
12:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
EWY
KOSDAQ Index
Cosmecca Korea
036930.KQ
006400.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI chase risk near option expiration.
Next week is quadruple witching on September 10, and foreign investors have rebuilt cumulative KOSPI futures net longs to about 28,000 contracts, near their typical +/-30,000 contract band and close to their historical cap near 40,000. That leaves only about 10,000 contracts of buying room, so if another sharp rally occurs on good news, foreigners are more likely to take profits and the KOSPI could see correction or time-based consolidation instead of explosive upside.
EWY WATCH
KOSDAQ likely stronger than KOSPI.
KOSDAQ is likely to remain stronger than KOSPI next week and through year-end because retail investors are concentrated there, KOSDAQ trading value rose about 30% while KOSPI trading value fell, money has rotated out of large-cap semiconductor and leveraged ETF trades into KOSDAQ sectors such as robots and small-cap semiconductor equipment, and the KOSPI still lacks a strong large-cap theme.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Buy cosmetics ODM on dips.
Cosmetics ODM leaders such as Korea Kolmar, Cosmecca Korea and Cosmax are undergoing short-term profit-taking after sharp gains, but the investment story and earnings are not broken. He views them as having inverse-like defensive strength when the broader market wobbles and would prefer to approach them on dips next week.
Cosmecca Korea LONG
161890.KS LONG
Cosmax LONG
Hold Korean semiconductor equipment/materials.
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials small caps are the biggest beneficiaries of the semiconductor capex cycle and should be held. Names such as PSK Holdings, EO Technics, Jusung Engineering and Hanmi Semiconductor made new highs and are buyable today, though chasing another spike next week would be dangerous.
036930.KQ LONG
042700.KS LONG
031980.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
Watch secondary battery ESS for growth.
Next year's growth is likely to come from ESS and secondary battery names such as Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution and SK Innovation rather than from already well-known AI memory growth. He sees these as worth watching as the market broadens away from a narrow AI semiconductor trade.
006400.KS WATCH
096770.KS WATCH
Robotis leader; hold to ten trillion won.
Robotis made a high-volume green candle and attempted an upper limit, indicating real money inflow and the start of robot small-cap leadership. He says he will not sell Robotis until its market cap reaches about 10 trillion won, versus roughly 4.4 trillion now.
108490.KQ LONG
SK Hynix may rise after buyback.
SK Hynix is being held back while its buyback program lasts because foreign investors can sell into that bid without hitting the price. He thinks the stock may start rising after the buyback ends around early October, with earnings season and potential foreign re-entry as catalysts, though he acknowledges this is partly hope rather than certainty.
000660.KS WATCH
Korean biotech bottoming on rate catalysts.
Korean biotech sentiment has already deteriorated about as much as it can with rates near a peak, so the sector has limited room for further sentiment damage. Licensing-out news or lower and more stable rates could quickly trigger moves in many biotech names.
Korean Biotech WATCH
Oil supported near term, not crashing.
Oil prices are unlikely to fall sharply near term because the Hormuz Strait is still not fully reopened and countries need to refill depleted strategic reserves. A genuine move toward downward oil price stabilization is more likely if the Hormuz bottleneck opens more fully, but that is not yet the base case.
WTI LONG
HIGH
12:23
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
5h
TSLA
▾
HIGH
Cybercab hype exceeded Tesla's robotaxi readiness.
Tesla's Austin Cybercab launch did not live up to the hype because safe robotaxi operations are complex and require boring, reliable operational build-out over time. Tesla has reached an important step by putting cars on the road without people behind the wheel, but it is still early days and remains behind Google's Waymo and Zoox, so investors should focus on execution rather than event hype.
TSLA WATCH
HIGH
12:15
Sep 04
Sep 04
CIBR
▾
MED
AI cyber threats boost cybersecurity demand
Altman warns that AI models are about to completely change the cyber attack landscape, and says society will need advanced AI tools like Astra to defend against a coming wave of AI-enabled cyber threats. This supports demand for cybersecurity and AI-driven cyber defense capabilities.
CIBR LONG
MED
12:13
Sep 04
Sep 04
11:47
Sep 04
Sep 04
US Treasuries (belly to long end)
GLD
USD 1ST
LULU 1ST
IOT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long Treasury belly/long end for stagflation
If the economy shifts toward stagflation and the Fed starts hiking, Haefele wants to shift into the belly/long end of the Treasury curve because financial repression is likely to keep long-end yields artificially suppressed, creating an attractive entry for that trade.
US Treasuries (belly to long end) LONG
Gold as portfolio diversifier, off highs
Gold is being used as a portfolio diversifier and hedge by sophisticated clients because it is off its highs and offers protection in scenarios that markets have not seen, while reducing exposure to everything being an AI trade.
GLD LONG
Diversify away from dollar long term
A more hawkish Fed may help the dollar near term, but two hikes are already priced in; over the longer term, as the AI trade broadens globally and US inflation falls, clients should expect to diversify away from dollars.
USD AVOID
China weakness makes turnaround difficult
Lululemon cut its full-year outlook and its Chinese business is struggling, suggesting the ongoing turnaround is proving difficult; shares dropped more than 18% premarket.
LULU AVOID
Enterprise demand drives revenue guidance higher
Samsara, a provider of GPS services, raised its revenue guidance on strong demand from large enterprise customers, especially in transportation, driving shares up about 12%.
IOT LONG
FHFA overcharging scrutiny drags credit bureaus
Credit bureaus are under pressure after the Federal Housing Finance Agency director said the companies were overcharging Americans and that this will end soon, dragging Equifax and TransUnion premarket.
EFX AVOID
TRU AVOID
Restructuring cuts costs to compete with China
Volkswagen's sweeping restructuring plan adds 50,000 job cuts to the previously announced figure, bringing the total to about 100,000, or roughly 15% of the workforce, to lower costs and compete with Chinese manufacturers; shares rallied sharply though implementation details are still unresolved.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
Huawei chips cannot replace Nvidia training
DeepSeek's planned 160,000 Huawei accelerators will be used to operate data centers rather than to train models, so the order is less threatening than the headline suggests; training still requires Nvidia accelerators, and Nvidia still leads.
NVDA LONG
China lacks competitor to leading-edge equipment
China is behind on semiconductor equipment: there is no evidence that China has a viable competitor to Applied Materials' leading-edge materials or ASML's leading-edge tools, while China's AI capabilities are less behind.
AMAT LONG
ASML LONG
HIGH
11:39
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
6h
Daktronics 1ST
▾
MED
SEC probing Daktronics over undisclosed side deal.
Pablo Torre says Daktronics, a scoreboard manufacturer, had a previously undisclosed secret endorsement deal with Kawhi Leonard and received $100 million to build the Intuit Dome halo board; according to Daktronics' earnings call, the SEC is now requesting information because of the reporting around what was not disclosed, creating a federal/regulatory overhang on the company.
Daktronics AVOID
MED
11:37
Sep 04
Sep 04
VOLKSWAGEN FLIP
VGK
European autos
VOD 1ST
BTP 1ST
▾
HIGH
VW restructuring proves reform is possible
Volkswagen's supervisory board backed a sweeping restructuring with 50,000 additional job cuts and fewer models. The market is reacting because VW was previously seen as too hard to reform and there were fears of legal escalation; the approval creates hope that change is possible, though China and US tariff challenges remain.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
European data and policy are improving
Citi economic surprise indices continue to beat forecasts, earnings revisions are improving across a broad set of sectors, and PMI/manufacturing data are moving higher. Beata also argues EU policymakers are taking meaningful steps to protect European industries, supporting a more positive case for European equities.
VGK LONG
Long European domestic cyclicals over exporters/consumers
EU protectionism through tariffs and preferential procurement favors domestic industries. Beata says the worst is behind autos and chemicals, and from a cyclical perspective autumn is a good time for cyclicals. She argues investors should be long domestic European stocks and avoid internationally exposed exporters and consumer stocks, while being selective.
European autos LONG
European chemicals LONG
European domestic stocks LONG
European exporters AVOID
European consumer stocks AVOID
Goldman upgrade and streaming catalyst for Vodafone
Goldman Sachs upgraded Vodafone two notches from sell to buy after previously being bearish. Also, the FT reported Vodafone is looking through its Vodafone Three partnership to offer a TV/streaming package in the UK, following full control of Vodafone Three.
VOD LONG
Italy safer than France on fiscal position
French spreads are pricing political uncertainty because some parties have signaled they may burn or default on debt commitments. Italy, by contrast, has a primary surplus and is probably the safer European sovereign asset, creating a relative preference for Italy over France.
BTP LONG
OAT AVOID
German bunds may lose safe-haven status
Germany missed the rise of electrification, electric vehicles and batteries, and must undergo a painful restructuring of its economy. Its fiscal situation will worsen, so German bunds are not necessarily the safe asset in five years' time.
BUND AVOID
European defense spending keeps rising strongly
European defense spending is not facing fatigue. It rose more than 20% in 2024-25, is projected to rise another 10-15%, and EU average defense spending is moving from 2.2% toward 2.4% of GDP by 2026, supporting the European defense sector.
ITA LONG
Energy pressures European front-end government bonds
A Fed hold would temper the selloff in eurozone sovereign debt, but zooming out, gas and oil prices are the bigger force for European front-end and back-end yields. Energy is more important than the ECB for European front ends, so high gas prices should keep pressure on those bonds.
European front-end government bonds AVOID
Tariffs let European steelmakers capture higher prices
European carbon taxing and tariffs on imported steel have raised steel prices. Domestic European steelmakers that do not pay the tariff or carbon levy benefit from those higher prices, making steel a clear example of protectionism working in Europe's favor.
European steelmakers LONG
European gas prices likely keep climbing
European TTF gas futures have marched to the highest level since early 2023, Asian LNG is at its highest since December 2022, and European storage is the lowest in at least a decade. As long as Europe cannot import enough LNG to refill inventories, prices are likely to keep rising; analysts estimate TTF may need to reach about €100/MWh by November from around €75 now to get storage to 75% full.
TTF LONG
UK gilts under energy inflation pressure
Gilts are in the firing line because the UK has acute energy exposure and rising energy costs are being passed through to consumers. Combined with persistent food and energy inflation, this supports the view that bond-market stress and higher gilt yields are not over yet.
UKGILT AVOID
OpenAI's 100,000 GPUs support Nvidia
OpenAI's new GPT-6 Astra model trained on 100,000 GPUs, which suggests AI scaling laws continue and frontier models require more compute. That can be read as good news for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
Norway rotation favors credit over government bonds
Norway's sovereign wealth fund proposes reducing government debt from 70% to 50% of its bond portfolio, which could cut US Treasury holdings by about $80 billion and rotate into agency, mortgage and corporate bonds. The move signals reduced appetite for government debt and more demand for higher-yielding credit.
TLT AVOID
LQD LONG
Yen break below 155 could force capitulation
After a large yen move, the market is consolidating, but a break below 155 in USD/JPY could force more capitulation of an estimated ¥200 billion of yen shorts. The setup depends on the BOJ signaling more hikes; if the BOJ disappoints, short positions could return quickly.
FXY WATCH
Carrefour returns to India's large consumer market
Carrefour is returning to India after more than a decade with a flagship store in northern India, re-entering a huge consumer market. The stock is up about 15% year to date.
Carrefour LONG
HIGH
11:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
EWY
MU
US Treasury yields
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI bottom is firm; don't sell.
Yeom sees the KOSPI repeatedly testing the 6,500 level on an intraday basis and closing above it each time. He reads that as a market bottom with strong support, helped by corporate buybacks and other demand that defends the downside. He says investors do not need to cut stock exposure here and should not treat this as a selling zone.
EWY LONG
Micron reaction decides memory sentiment.
Micron's late-September earnings, especially the market reaction, are the key trigger for memory sentiment. AI-related earnings in the US have generally been good and Nvidia's latest reaction improved, so if Micron's good results get a positive reaction, warmth can spread to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. If the reaction is poor, the memory recovery takes longer.
MU WATCH
Rates should stay capped, not crash.
Yeom says September is dominated by US interest rates. The market is not hoping for a sharp drop in yields because a sudden collapse would imply either a US recession or big tech retreating from AI investment, which would hurt Korean equities. Instead, the market wants yields capped from rising, roughly in the 4.6% to 5% zone, and Fed speakers are actively signaling to prevent yields from breaking higher.
US Treasury yields WATCH
Buy Samsung and SK hynix dips.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have corrected 30-40% from highs even though memory fundamentals have not cracked and AI earnings news has stayed positive. Buyback and cancellation programs are very large and recurring into next year, which supports the stocks. He sees current weakness as an accumulation opportunity for investors who believe earnings will keep growing, even though retail sentiment remains weak.
005930.KS LONG
Solidigm IPO remains possible risk.
Yeom reads SK hynix's Solidigm pre-IPO disclosure as not a denial: a Nasdaq listing remains one of several options under review. He notes Solidigm has become a valuable AI data-center enterprise SSD business, so listing without shareholder protection would dilute SK hynix shareholders' upside and likely trigger backlash. His base case is that it probably will not be forced through, and current stock-price impact is limited.
000660.KS WATCH
Battery sector growth returns via ESS.
The secondary-battery sector is becoming a growth story again because ESS demand from data centers is surging. Q3 earnings should inflect, and next year's operating-profit growth rate is expected to rank first across sectors. Chinese battery makers are excluded from the US, and Korean makers are expanding capacity; he suggests buying the sector on pullbacks after its recent run.
Korean secondary battery sector LONG
Construction benefits from data center buildout.
Construction should be treated as an AI data-center growth sector. Korea is actively encouraging data-center builds, US big tech faces local opposition and could choose Korea, and global hyperscalers are already partnering with Korean firms. With huge build costs per GW and domestic construction companies having real earnings and clearer near-term orders, he sees construction as one of the clearest data-center plays.
Korean construction sector LONG
Use banks as defensive hedge only.
For portfolio construction, he argues growth must remain core but some defensive exposure is useful. Bank and financial stocks are one such hedge, especially for periods when rates rise. They should only be a supporting allocation, not the main position.
KBE LONG
HIGH
11:19
Sep 04
Sep 04
TSLA
Korean robotics/physical AI value chain
SNDK FLIP
EWY
AAPL
▾
HIGH
Hold innovative leaders like Tesla, Palantir.
Park says in new growth industries the leading innovative company at the top of the value chain is the one to simply buy and hold—Apple in the smartphone cycle, Tesla in EVs, and Palantir as the current best AI applier—whereas lower-tier Korean value-chain names are harder to own for the whole cycle.
TSLA LONG
AAPL LONG
PLTR LONG
Watch Korean robotics for third-wave entry.
Park sees physical AI and humanoid robotics as a major new-growth value chain whose total addressable market may exceed semiconductors, with Korea holding real strengths in manufacturing data and parts. However, he would not chase the first wave; he prefers to monitor for the third-wave momentum entry after the second-wave adjustment because the eventual winners are still unclear.
Korean robotics/physical AI value chain WATCH
Buy SanDisk on low-certainty setup.
Park endorses the active Nasdaq growth manager's decision to put SanDisk into the portfolio's top 10, arguing that when evidence is thinnest and uncertainty is highest, buying can be safest because the stock has not already risen much and the downside if wrong is limited.
SNDK LONG
KOSPI likely rebounds into October toward 7,500.
Park expects the September correction to be limited to less than 10% and sees KOSPI forming a hammer-style lower tail in September, then rallying into October and attempting 7,500. He argues bearish broadcast and comment sentiment shows investors have already positioned defensively, so selling is becoming exhausted and money can return once rate fears fade.
EWY LONG
Buy Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon long-term.
Park says that for a 10-year hold, investors can simply buy US large-cap compounders such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon and hold them because they are dominant franchise businesses, unlike most Korean cyclical and subcontractor names.
MSFT LONG
META LONG
AMZN LONG
TSMC can be held for 10 years.
Park says that if a company has truly dominant global competitiveness, like TSMC, it can be held for 10 years even with severe volatility. The key is distinguishing such franchise businesses from ordinary Korean cyclicals.
TSM LONG
HIGH
11:13
Sep 04
Sep 04
VT 1ST
SMH
EWJ
FXY
TLT
▾
HIGH
AI capex boom drives higher stock returns
Roubini says the drivers of higher bond yields are stronger capex and economic growth from the AI/technology investment boom; as long as that continues, it means stronger bond yields, higher economic growth, higher investment, and higher stock returns, and he is optimistic overall.
VT LONG
Real global tech investment boom continues
AI is only one of several future technologies including AI, robotics, semiconductors, space exploration, quantum computing, and fusion energy; each is subject to improvement because of AI, so capex growth and economic growth will continue over time even if corrections occur.
SMH LONG
Japan structural transformation supports medium-term upside
Japan is undergoing a structural economic transformation and is doing significant things in future technologies such as AI, robotics, quantum computing, and defense tech; Roubini is reasonably optimistic medium-term that potential growth in Japan will be stronger than in the past.
EWJ LONG
BOJ hikes support gradual yen strength
He expects the Bank of Japan to hike in September and probably October; with Japan's higher potential growth, the yen should strengthen gradually over the medium term rather than weaken further.
FXY LONG
Fiscal concerns could push bond yields higher
If global fiscal consolidation does not occur, bond yields could go higher; Treasury buybacks and Fed actions can only change a few basis points at the margin because the drivers are fiscal concerns and the capex boom, so yields are biased higher.
TLT SHORT
Low winter storage keeps European gas elevated
Europe will have enough gas supply this winter but only at a cost: storage buffers are low, so Europe must compete with Asia and other buyers for LNG; gas prices have already surged and are expected to rise further and remain elevated through winter.
UNG LONG
Volkswagen restructuring approved supports positive re-rating
Volkswagen's supervisory board approved a sweeping restructuring targeting a 9% margin by 2030, including 50,000 additional job cuts and about 50% fewer product portfolio models; unions and the state of Lower Saxony are on board, and markets are reacting positively though implementation is only beginning.
VOLKSWAGEN LONG
Europe needs greater defense sector capability
Europe is surrounded by conflict and hybrid threats, and national defense policies cannot deter its enemies; Europe needs deeper defense integration and greater deterrence capacity, and the defense industrial sector is powerful and can be reinforced with economic interdependence.
IHI LONG
HIGH
11:04
Sep 04
Sep 04
NVDA
AVGO
DELL
SNOW
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
AI infrastructure fundamentals remain very strong.
AI infrastructure fundamentals are stronger than macro noise. NVIDIA's Hugging Face acquisition shows AI ecosystem control, Dell and Snowflake posted AI-driven earnings and growth acceleration, and Broadcom's 2028 AI data-center revenue target implies huge custom accelerator and networking demand. Korean semiconductor names are lagging but should catch up.
NVDA LONG
AVGO LONG
DELL LONG
SNOW LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Wonik Holdings rebounds as robot proxy.
Wonik Holdings is rallying because its unlisted subsidiary Wonik Robotics is tied to Meta's robot hand development. The stock had fallen from 50,000 won to 13,000 won and is now rebounding as robot interest returns.
030530.KQ LONG
Hanmi Semiconductor wins Taiwan packaging orders.
Hanmi Semiconductor sold 2.5D packaging bonding equipment to a Taiwanese OSAT after qualification, likely ASE, opening a second large customer beyond HBM TC bonding. Further TSMC and AMKOR validation makes it a direct AI accelerator packaging beneficiary.
042700.KS LONG
Korean semiconductor equipment may outperform longer.
In the semiconductor upcycle, Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names may have a longer cycle than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix because capacity and tooling investment is still rising; investors should hold some positions.
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials LONG
Wait for refining pullback; S-Oil preferred.
Refining stocks have surged on Russian refinery disruption and strong refining margins, with S-Oil the preferred name, but the move is extended; wait for a pullback rather than chasing today.
010950.KS WATCH
Korean shipbuilding fundamentals and new demand strong.
Korean shipbuilders' commercial orders are so steady they no longer act as positive stock catalysts, but fundamentals are excellent: the big three hit double-digit margins in 2Q and backlogs are strong. New data-center power engine demand can become a high-margin market and force a re-rating.
Korean Shipbuilding LONG
HD Hyundai Heavy wins data-center power.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is best positioned for AI data-center distributed power because it has real engine and fuel-cell capabilities, acquired a Wärtsilä fuel-cell legal entity, and is already supplying generating engines for onshore data centers; this opens a high-margin energy business.
329180.KS LONG
Samsung Heavy leads floating data centers.
Samsung Heavy Industries is the first mover for floating data centers, named as partner for a US developer's Project Zeus targeting 2028 first-half operation; contract news could arrive this year.
010140.KS WATCH
Shipping rates support strong third-quarter earnings.
Shipping rates are extremely strong, with BDI above 3,400 even for non-Middle East routes; 2Q earnings beat low expectations and 3Q earnings should be strong, supporting Korean shipping stocks.
SEA LONG
KOSPI downside limited; foreigners buy.
KOSPI only fell one day in September and is recovering from its 20-day moving average; foreigners are buying cash and futures, and the low is being raised gradually. The market is not a place to flee from.
EWY LONG
Micron earnings reaction will lead memory.
Micron's earnings and especially market reaction are the key catalyst for the memory trade; if Micron reports well and the stock reacts positively, the ongi can spread to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix into October.
MU WATCH
Korean battery makers benefit from ESS boom.
Korean battery makers are attractive because ESS and data-center power demand is starting to drive real growth; next-year EPS growth is projected to be the top sector, China is locked out of Western markets, and SK On's large US contract shows customers are selecting Korean suppliers.
006400.KS LONG
096770.KS LONG
Cosmetics ODM trend intact; buy pullbacks.
Cosmetics ODM names have strong earnings and their export/consumption story is intact; after profit-taking, the sector acts as a defensive or inverse trade when the market wobbles, so pullbacks are opportunities.
Cosmecca Korea LONG
161890.KS LONG
Cosmax LONG
Korean construction benefits from data centers.
Construction is emerging as an AI/data-center growth play: Korea is actively promoting data centers, Amazon is building with SK in Ulsan, and 18.4GW of domestic data-center buildout implies very large construction spending for experienced Korean builders.
Korean construction LONG
KOSDAQ rebound can extend toward 900.
Next week KOSDAQ is likely to outperform KOSPI because its trading value expanded about 30% while KOSPI's shrank; retail money is rotating into KOSDAQ names and KOSDAQ sectors are more active.
KOSDAQ LONG
Semiconductor test equipment remains buyable.
Semiconductor test equipment names such as PSK Holdings and EO Technics are making new highs on the equipment upcycle; buying today is acceptable and sector momentum remains strong.
031980.KQ LONG
030200.KQ LONG
Robotis benefits from AI robot supply chain.
Robotis is the only domestic Korean robot company involved in the NVIDIA/Hugging Face Microduck robot, supplying 15 actuators and nine other parts. New reports from KB and Goldman plus an Uzbekistan data-learning center provide a concrete robot AI supply-chain role.
108490.KQ LONG
Battery materials still short-term cautious.
Secondary battery materials are being neglected by the market short term; Ecopro's chart is correcting and the materials group requires caution even though SK Innovation's chart is more attractive.
086520.KQ AVOID
Hyundai Motor lacks buyers despite robots.
Hyundai Motor is failing to react even when robot stocks surge; trading volume has roughly halved and buyers are absent, making it a frustrating holding until it clears 400,000 won.
005380.KS AVOID
Samsung Electro-Mechanics remains sideways and unattractive.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is a sideways 'neck' holding with no clear inflow; money prefers Samsung Electronics or Simmtech, so Samsung Electro-Mechanics is relatively unattractive.
009150.KS AVOID
K-beauty neutral; hold through FX headwind.
K-beauty's export demand is continuous and strong, but the roughly 20% won appreciation has cut export value; the sector is now neutral, so hold but do not aggressively chase until currency adjusts.
K-beauty WATCH
Nuclear positive but timing uncertain.
Nuclear energy is directionally positive and Korea has capability, but actual project timing is uncertain and long; only fast traders should trade the theme, with Doosan Enerbility as a main expression.
034020.KS WATCH
Trim Alteogen after distribution-like chart.
Alteogen's chart shows distribution-like action after the contract news: strong volume with down candles, loss of 300,000 won, and foreign and institutional selling; short-term chasing is not textbook and trimming is appropriate.
196170.KQ AVOID
Korean robotics cautious; China leads.
Korean robotics stocks deserve caution because China is several steps ahead in humanoid robots, domestic momentum is absent, and home-robot adoption will take time; valuations may not be justified.
Korean Robotics AVOID
HIGH
11:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
EWY
Korean equities
Korea-China-US Focus Fund
AAPL
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Buy KOSPI late September for October rally.
Park expects September's seasonal correction to be mild, with a lower tail but not a 10% decline, and sees a hammer-shaped bullish candle forming. He then expects a rally from late September into October-November that will test KOSPI 7,500, and advises waiting until late September to deploy rather than chasing immediately.
EWY LONG
Stay invested in Korean equities.
Park tells a viewer not to convert investments to cash. He expects the market to improve from year-end into next year and says well-chosen sectors could produce 50-100% returns, so staying invested in equities and targeting around 15% annual returns is wiser than settling for low cash pension payouts.
Korean equities LONG
Add to Korea-China-US Focus Fund.
Park says the Samsung Securities Korea-China-US Focus Fund is being managed conservatively across Korea, China, and US portfolios, so investors do not need to wait for a deeper pullback. He suggests the portfolio construction matters more than precise entry timing and that adding into it now is fine.
Korea-China-US Focus Fund LONG
Buy US mega-cap tech for ten years.
Park argues Korean stocks often behave like cyclical first-tier subcontractors and are not ideal 10-year holds. In contrast, US mega-cap technology such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon can be bought now and held for 10 years because of durable global competitive positions.
AAPL LONG
MSFT LONG
META LONG
AMZN LONG
Hold TSMC as ten-year compounder.
Park says that while many Korean stocks are too cyclical for 10-year holding, companies with monopolistic competitiveness such as TSMC can be held for 10 years despite volatility. He advises checking whether a holding has that kind of durable competitive quality before setting a long-term strategy.
TSM LONG
Watch Korean robotics for third-wave entry.
The article's interviewees see robotics and physical AI as a potential tenbagger industry whose total market can eventually exceed semiconductors, with Korea holding manufacturing data advantages. Park personally says he avoids first-wave speculation and prefers to wait for the second-wave adjustment to finish, then buy the robotics value chain on third-wave momentum using CANSLIM, making this a watchlist theme rather than an immediate buy.
Korean robotics/physical AI sector WATCH
Buy AI infrastructure software leaders.
Park relays the Samsung Active manager's view that the AI-led rally is not over, but leadership may broaden from hardware to software. Infrastructure software such as Palantir and Snowflake is seen as an under-owned 'empty house' because the market fears AI substitution, yet their Q2 results showed AI-driven growth as enterprises adopt AI. The manager's ETF has Palantir and Snowflake as its top two holdings.
PLTR LONG
SNOW LONG
Buy Samsung/SK Hynix memory supercycle.
Nomura expects memory supply shortages to last until 2028 because AI demand is overwhelming supply. Long-term contracts with premiums of up to 20% and strong penalty clauses give Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron unprecedented earnings visibility. The firm sees Samsung and SK Hynix as seriously cheap, with targets of 670,000 won and 4.7 million won respectively; won strength is a near-term risk but rising memory ASPs should offset it.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
MU LONG
Korean department stores benefit from premium tourism.
Park reviews a column arguing foreign tourist spending is shifting from duty-free cosmetics purchases to premium and luxury spending at department stores. Shinsegae, Lotte, and Hyundai Department Store posted strong second-quarter results with sharply higher foreign sales, resembling the Japan department store re-rating, though won strength is flagged as a later risk.
004170.KS LONG
023530.KS LONG
069960.KS LONG
HIGH
11:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Korean robot stocks
000660.KS FLIP
Korean stablecoin/payment stocks
Korean foldable phone materials/parts stocks
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
Korean robot stocks rally on Tesla/IFA.
Tesla's Cybercab launch treats autonomous vehicles as wheeled robots, triggering a broad rally in Korean robot stocks; the Berlin IFA show is highlighting humanoids, and Korea is promoting robotics as a new growth engine toward 2035, supporting multi-month positioning in the sector.
Korean robot stocks LONG
Samsung, SK hynix Q3 earnings revive rally.
The October earnings season is likely to revive the market, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix third-quarter results becoming a positive catalyst; the market had unfairly written down semiconductor earnings after Q2, and strong Q3 numbers can break that pessimism.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Stablecoin regulation catalysts lift Korean payment stocks.
The U.S. Clarity Act stablecoin legislation is expected around September 15 and Korea is preparing a digital asset law revision for the regular National Assembly session around October; this leaves several weeks of catalyst runway for Korean stablecoin and payment/settlement names to express the theme.
Korean stablecoin/payment stocks LONG
Apple foldable launch lifts Korean parts suppliers.
Apple is set to unveil a foldable iPhone next week, and with the phone market saturated and looking for new form factors, related Korean foldable materials and parts suppliers are moving and should stay in focus around the event.
Korean foldable phone materials/parts stocks LONG
KOSPI rangebound then late-September entry setup.
Historical U.S. midterm patterns show a late-September low, and combined with Korea's Chuseok holiday and Samsung/SK hynix Q3 expectations from late September, KOSPI is likely to be rangebound and frustrating until Chuseok, then set up a recovery into October.
EWY WATCH
Honam semiconductor policy supports construction names.
The government is aggressively pushing the Honam semiconductor agenda; KEPCO has proposed that Samsung and SK hynix prepay 25 trillion won for five years of electricity to accelerate semiconductor power grid buildout, signaling policy execution and keeping Honam semiconductor-linked construction and real estate names supported.
Korean Honam semiconductor construction/real estate stocks LONG
KEPCO prepayment accelerates Korean power grid.
KEPCO's proposal for Samsung and SK hynix to prepay 25 trillion won for five years of electricity is designed to expedite semiconductor power grid expansion, making Korean power grid and electrical equipment names direct beneficiaries of faster execution.
Korean power grid/electrical equipment stocks LONG
US package supports gas, LNG, SMR, MRO.
The first U.S. investment project is expected to be finalized in September, and because Japan's first package included three sub-projects, Korea's package may include two or three projects spanning gas power plants, Alaska LNG, SMR, and shipbuilding MRO, making likely beneficiaries a tradable theme.
Korean gas power plant stocks LONG
Alaska LNG-related Korean stocks LONG
Korean SMR stocks LONG
Korean shipbuilding MRO stocks LONG
Oil war premium likely to fade.
The market's war-expansion oil spike appears to have peaked; the speaker assesses the Iran war as only a 2-3 out of 10 macro variable and expects conflict-related oil pressure to fade as sanctions and periodic talks dominate, leaving oil likely to drift lower.
WTI SHORT
Bessent purchases stabilize US long-term bonds.
Treasury Secretary Bessent's long-term government bond purchase program begins on the 9th and is set to be doubled, which should stabilize long-term yields and support U.S. long-duration Treasuries.
TLT LONG
HIGH
10:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Empire
8h
ARB FLIP
ETH
HOOD
ENA
HYPE
▾
HIGH
Ethereum captures too little value; Arbitrum wins.
Ethereum L1 is capturing only a tiny and falling share of fees from Robinhood/Arbitrum growth, while Arbitrum is positioned to take roughly 10% of Robinhood Chain's fees; among HOOD, ARB and ETH, ETH is the least attractive and hard to justify at its $300B valuation.
ARB LONG
ETH AVOID
Robinhood Chain can double HOOD revenue.
Tokenized-stock memecoins such as Boner/HIMS create weekend dislocations and can look like unregulated equity derivatives or coordinated market manipulation; regulators focused on market integrity are likely to target them if they grow, creating a legal/regulatory overhang for Robinhood and tokenized equities.
HOOD LONG
Ethena Pay expands Ethena beyond crypto.
Ethena is evolving beyond the synthetic dollar into Ethena Pay, a neobank with 6% daily balances, 5% cash back, zero FX markups and multicurrency accounts; it has built distribution via Robinhood Chain and Coinbase, and the speaker's firm is a large investor expecting it to scale beyond crypto natives.
ENA LONG
Hyperliquid US path is major catalyst.
Hyperliquid is pursuing a US path via Kraken/Bitnomial's regulated DCM/DCO; if approved, US KYC/AML participants could trade on Hyperliquid, arbitrageurs would link liquidity between the US and international venues, and this would be a huge win for Hyperliquid volume and revenue. The speaker expects some version could be resolved this year.
HYPE WATCH
Own deposit takers like Nubank.
Remittance-only businesses are low-margin and lack customer loyalty; long-term value accrues to whoever owns deposits. Felix Pago's partnerships drive deposit growth to Nubank, so investors should prefer owning the deposit-owning institution, Nubank, rather than the remittance wedge.
NU LONG
Bitcoin uptrend can continue through year-end.
Bitcoin is in an uptrend through year-end; it was up 25% in August and could easily see another 25% over the next four months, supported by crypto's reflexive uptrend and improving fundamentals even with macro uncertainty.
BTC LONG
HIGH
10:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
005930.KS
000660.KS
032830.KS
028260.KS
KOSDAQ
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor leaders need time, not selling
Lee argues that AI beneficiaries such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could improve overall market supply and create a liquidity priming effect if they return more cash through buybacks and share cancellations. He notes SK Hynix is already doing an aggressive employee compensation buyback that appears ahead of schedule, while Samsung Electronics has announced a large treasury program but still needs to add share cancellation to make it credible. He expects these shareholder-return actions to eventually be reflected in share prices.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Samsung Life and C&T need shareholder returns
Lee says investors should not only watch Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; large profit-rich Samsung affiliates such as Samsung Life and Samsung C&T also need to show a changed shareholder-return stance. Because Samsung Electronics pays dividends, these affiliates receive dividend income, and if they pass those returns to their own shareholders, it would create positive news and support the broader shareholder-return theme.
032830.KS WATCH
028260.KS WATCH
Use Ichimoku breakouts in KOSDAQ rotation
Lee says the KOSDAQ market is now a weak rotation market where chasing already-moved money gets investors trapped. He advises using Ichimoku cloud breakouts to screen names escaping above or nearing the cloud, checking earnings and supply, and notes that Korean materials/components/equipment names breaking above the Ichimoku cloud have been particularly strong, while names stuck mid-range are not moving. He is not accumulating one sector but responding to rotation with this trend filter.
KOSDAQ WATCH
Korean semiconductor equipment/materials WATCH
HIGH
10:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
SPY
SMH
NVDA
DELL
MSFT
▾
HIGH
Overweight US equities on resilient earnings
Dan says the asset allocation committee has been overweight US equities for well over a year and is sticking with that view because the economy remains resilient and earnings growth is accelerating; he pairs this with diversified asset classes but still favors US stocks.
SPY LONG
Semis more interesting after June pullback
Dan warns the AI hardware complex could face deployment constraints and double-ordering as companies order servers, chips, and electrical components ahead of 40-50 gigawatts of projected data center construction; the risk is not today but could appear a year from now, similar to fiber boom-bust dynamics.
SMH WATCH
Nvidia and Dell benefit from recurring spending
Josh argues building data centers embeds guaranteed purchases of servers and chips, and because GPUs are not 20-year assets, existing infrastructure must constantly be fed with new technology; Nvidia and Dell are direct beneficiaries even if new construction slows.
NVDA LONG
DELL LONG
Microsoft benefits from ending OpenAI exclusivity
Josh thinks Microsoft's rally reflects the public split with Sam Altman and the end of OpenAI exclusivity; he believes Microsoft can use cheaper open-weight models to fulfill AI software product commitments and regain momentum.
MSFT LONG
Uber is misunderstood and bullish
Josh says he personally believes the market is wrong on Uber and has been long the stock; he sees it as misunderstood even though the episode does not provide a detailed supporting thesis.
UBER LONG
Small caps face rates and AI risks
Dan cautions small caps are tricky: higher rates hurt the lower-quality cohort, the Russell 2000 suffers negative selection because many $100M-plus revenue companies stay private, about 40% of the index is unprofitable, and AI can both disintermediate small-cap industries and leave those companies unable to invest in AI adoption.
IWM AVOID
Healthcare wins from AI drug discovery
Dan likes healthcare as an AI adoption beneficiary: AI can compress phase one drug discovery from six-to-seven years to under twelve months, bringing safer drugs to market faster, and downstream life-science tools, consumables, labs, and clinical trial managers should benefit after years of COVID, rate, and capital-allocation headwinds.
XLV LONG
S&P Global ratings business is underappreciated
Dan contends S&P Global is a datacentric business caught in the AI-obsolescence selloff that has not fully rebounded; its issuance and data businesses are underappreciated because massive financing requires regulated ratings.
SPGI LONG
Nasdaq data and IPO upside underappreciated
Dan argues Nasdaq is misunderstood because it combines an exchange, a fintech business, and a data business that feed each other; earnings grow mid-to-high teens while the multiple stays flat, and it should benefit from future IPOs and AI data utilization.
NDAQ LONG
Software oversold; AI creates interdependence
Dan says software was oversold in mid-February as investors priced in AI obsolescence, but AI labs are more likely to create chronic interdependence with software than to put corporate America out of business; he expects dispersion and favors quality software names.
IGV LONG
Buy energy dips on short-lived ceasefires
Dan says his team has been buying energy on every ceasefire because ceasefire deals have been short-lived; energy names are also now more focused on dividends and buybacks after the 2015 shale bust, giving them a better capital-return profile.
XLE LONG
KOSPI too concentrated; be selective EM
Dan notes KOSPI did not have the offsetting healthcare and financials rotation that cushioned the US when AI sold off, because it is highly concentrated in semiconductor-related stocks; he tells investors to be selective in emerging markets.
EWY AVOID
Mag 7 quality may lead again
Dan expects 2027 could look like 2023 with a return to monolithic Mag 7 outperformance because the average company will struggle to comp the synthetic tariff-related operating leverage; he favors bigger-is-better quality and AI enablers.
MAGS LONG
Momentum and quality factors back in favor
Dan says the market's microstructure—quant funds, CTAs, retail liquidity, and speed of information—has made momentum one of the most important factors, and quality is also coming back in favor as higher rates and AI adoption reward stronger companies.
MTUM LONG
Quality Factor LONG
GLP-1 headwind hurts PepsiCo food demand
Dan argues GLP-1 adoption is real and is pressuring food staples; Pepsi and Frito-Lay have missed organic revenue growth targets for two to three years, and investors should not read McDonald's results as a broad consumer signal.
PEP AVOID
Palo Alto valuation stretched at 70x
Dan says Palo Alto Networks is an AI winner but had rerated to 70 times earnings, the top end of its PE range, making it a high-tracking-error winner in a 50-stock portfolio, so the team sold it.
PANW AVOID
HIGH
09:15
Sep 04
Sep 04
Samsung Heavy Industries 010140.KS
329180.KS
Hanwha Ocean 042660.KS
Korean shipbuilding power engine parts suppliers
SEA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Shipbuilding fundamentals strong; stocks should re-rate.
Korean shipbuilding fundamentals remain strong: the commercial ship market is excellent, secondhand VLCC prices are about 20% above newbuild prices, which is pushing owners toward newbuild orders, and some shipbuilders have already achieved annual order targets by Q1 or Q2. Big3 shipbuilders reached double-digit operating margins in Q2, and the sector has stronger earnings visibility for 2027-2028 than most other sectors, so the stocks should eventually re-rate even though the market has not yet reflected this.
Samsung Heavy Industries 010140.KS LONG
329180.KS LONG
Hanwha Ocean 042660.KS LONG
Power engine parts suppliers gain from volume.
Companies that supply parts for marine power generation engines should benefit from volume growth as Korean shipbuilders win data center power engine orders. The speaker distinguishes these from general shipbuilding equipment suppliers, because not every ship component maker will benefit from floating data centers.
Korean shipbuilding power engine parts suppliers LONG
Freight rates support Korean shipping stocks.
Middle East war disruption has pushed fuel costs and sea freight rates to record highs, with BDI recently above 3,400. Shipping stocks are rising on strong freight rates, Q2 earnings beat low expectations, and Q3 earnings should also be strong because some contract revenue deferred from Q2 will be recognized in Q3.
SEA LONG
Data center power engines create high-margin demand.
US data centers are facing grid interconnection delays, so developers need distributed power. Marine power generation engines are being repurposed as flexible power plants, and big tech customers are buying large capacity blocks of 600 MW to 1 GW at high prices. Because European specialist engine makers are already capacity-constrained, demand is coming to Korean shipbuilders, creating a new high-margin market beyond conventional shipbuilding.
IPAY LONG
HIGH
09:07
Sep 04
Sep 04
TLT
Global sovereign bonds
SPY
ITA 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Capex boom drives bond yields higher
The rise in sovereign bond yields is driven mainly by a secular capex boom in AI, technology and defense/resilience spending, not by inflation expectations; fiscal concerns are secondary. Because the move reflects stronger growth and risk-on markets, yields can stay elevated and Fed or Treasury duration interventions should have only marginal effects.
TLT SHORT
Global sovereign bonds SHORT
US equities absorb higher bond yields
Roubini says the US is in a capex-driven investment boom and potential growth is now closer to 3% than 2%; U.S. equities have delivered double-digit returns and can absorb higher bond yields because rising yields are a signal of stronger growth and risk-on markets.
SPY LONG
Defense spending is rising investment theme
Roubini points to rising defense spending as another form of investment in resilience and security, part of the global capex boom that is driving higher yields and stronger growth; he says this defense funding is needed.
ITA LONG
Watch oil on Iran escalation risk
The Strait of Hormuz is only half open and there is a non-baseline tail risk of Israel-Iran escalation after the US midterms. Commodity, energy and food market impacts are limited for now, but another flare-up is a key geopolitical risk to monitor.
WTI WATCH
AI is secular growth, not bubble
Roubini rejects the idea that AI is a bubble; he sees it as a secular increase in capex and potential growth, though corrections could occur. The AI-driven investment boom is part of a real global investment cycle and should support productivity over time.
Artificial Intelligence LONG
Future technologies extend AI capex boom
Investors are too narrowly focused on AI; other future technologies such as wearable tech, semiconductors, biomedical research, defense tech, space exploration, quantum computing, fusion energy, fintech and new material science are also improving because of AI and will keep capex and economic growth going for years.
Wearable technology LONG
SMH LONG
Biomedical research LONG
Defense technology LONG
Space exploration LONG
QUBT LONG
Fusion energy LONG
FINTECH LONG
Material science LONG
Japan's structural tech transformation supports growth
Roubini is reasonably optimistic on Japan over the medium term because Japan is undergoing a structural economic transformation in future technologies including AI robotics, quantum computing and defense tech. He says Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are innovating more than other Asian economies, supporting stronger Japanese potential growth.
EWJ LONG
Yen likely strengthens over medium term
While wide US-Japan policy rate differentials can still push the yen weaker in the short term, Roubini expects the BOJ to hike in September and October and Japanese potential growth to improve, so over the medium term the yen should strengthen gradually rather than weaken further.
FXY LONG
HIGH
08:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO
WTI
XLE 1ST
UGA 1ST
DIESEL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Iran's strategy keeps oil prices elevated.
Park Hyun-do argues that Iran is deliberately pushing crude oil higher as one of its two war aims; with Hormuz shipments disrupted and alternative export routes still constrained, Brent was already around $96, WTI around $92 and Dubai around $104, and Iran views Brent between $90 and $130 as its preferred range. He also notes US pump gasoline already exceeds $4 and diesel exceeds $5, with risk of $5-6 gasoline if oil keeps rising, reinforcing an environment that keeps energy prices biased upward.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
UGA LONG
DIESEL LONG
Iran oil strikes would crash stocks.
Park Hyun-do warns that if the U.S. directly strikes Iran's oil facilities such as Kharg Island, Iran will retaliate against neighboring states, causing oil prices to spike and stock prices to plunge; he adds that the economy would be severely damaged because inflation and rate hikes are already a problem. This is an event-driven downside setup for equities tied to Middle East escalation.
VT WATCH
HIGH
08:17
Sep 04
Sep 04
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
SMH
NVDA
DELL
AVGO
SNOW 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI semiconductor infrastructure demand stays strong
OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch and Broadcom's disclosure of OpenAI and Anthropic data center demand show model competition is accelerating again. Every new model cycle pulls in GPU, memory, networking and data center capex, so the AI semiconductor infrastructure chain remains fundamentally strong even while macro and Fed worries dominate short-term price action.
SMH LONG
Nvidia Hugging Face acquisition extends AI ecosystem
Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face clarifies how Nvidia intends to operate and control the AI ecosystem, giving it the power to pull the whole market along. This reinforces Nvidia's strategic positioning beyond current AI hardware demand.
NVDA LONG
Dell proves real AI server demand
Dell's strong earnings and follow-through rally are direct evidence that current AI infrastructure demand is real. It is showing up in delivered fundamentals, not just in the AI narrative.
DELL LONG
Broadcom AI revenue set to double
Broadcom's near-term stock reaction was hurt by softer margin commentary and no buyback, but management gave specific AI revenue visibility: AI semiconductor revenue is expected to double in two years, supported by OpenAI and Anthropic data center commitments. This is a strong industry signal even though the stock's short-term setup is less clean.
AVGO WATCH
Snowflake AI growth is re-accelerating
Snowflake beat and its growth rate accelerated, reversing fears that AI would disrupt SaaS. Management indicated AI is a major growth contributor, proving AI is becoming a real application-layer growth engine, not only an infrastructure trade.
SNOW LONG
Korean semiconductor fundamentals justify catching up
Korean semiconductor stocks, especially Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, are only catching up to U.S. AI names. Their fundamentals are strong and HBM/memory pricing is better than feared, so current underperformance is a macro and supply-demand mismatch rather than a reason to exit.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Robotis rides Nvidia robot supply chain
Robotis is levered to Nvidia's robot ecosystem through Hugging Face's MicroDuck robot, for which Robotis supplies about 15 actuators plus other components. KB and Goldman published positive notes, and KB detailed a low-cost Uzbekistan data-learning center strategy, reinforcing the company's humanoid robot data supply-chain position.
108490.KQ LONG
Wonik Holdings proxies unlisted robotics arm
Wonik Holdings rallied because its unlisted subsidiary Wonik Robotics is working with Meta on RobotStone, making the parent a listed proxy for that robotics collaboration. After a deep decline to around 13,000 won, the rebound reflects renewed robot-sector interest.
032940.KQ LONG
Hanmi packaging equipment wins OSAT qualification
Hanmi Semiconductor's 2.5D bonding equipment appears to have qualified with a major Taiwanese OSAT, opening the door to follow-on orders and a potential TSMC or Amkor opportunity. Bonding equipment is critical for HBM and AI accelerator packaging, so validation beyond its traditional Hynix link expands its addressable market.
042700.KS LONG
Equipment names may outlast memory majors
In this semiconductor upcycle, Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names may have a longer runway than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix because packaging and capex investment are still expanding. Investors should consider holding some equipment and materials exposure as part of the semiconductor allocation.
Korean semiconductor equipment and materials LONG
S-Oil is best Korean refining play
Refining margins are strong and U.S. refiners are at all-time highs as Ukrainian drone strikes degrade Russian refinery capacity. Among Korean refining names, S-Oil is the cleanest way to play the theme, though he would wait for a pullback rather than chase today's spike.
010950.KS LONG
Foreign futures positioning favors near-term upside
Foreign investors bought about 2.5 trillion won of futures today and are positioned upward into next week's futures and options expiry, while institutions are positioned downward. Lee thinks the balance of probabilities still favors overseas-driven upside for KOSPI and KOSDAQ unless employment or CPI data surprises sharply.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ Index LONG
HIGH
08:15
Sep 04
Sep 04
USD/JPY
TLT
LQD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Yen strength could force short capitulation.
After the sharp yen move, the market is taking stock but momentum could quickly resume. A move below the prior intervention lows and below 155 could force more capitulation because JPMorgan estimates around $100 billion of yen shorts remain and carry trades are already being unwound through the options market. The trade depends more on the BOJ than on US data.
USD/JPY WATCH
Norway shifts from Treasuries to corporate bonds.
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is looking to scale back its government-debt holdings, especially US Treasuries, and shift toward corporate bonds and other bond markets. The fund believes it can take on more risk while keeping the same liquidity, and there is a broader declining appetite for government bonds as investors seek more yield or equities.
TLT AVOID
LQD LONG
HIGH
08:02
Sep 04
Sep 04
INDA 1ST
Indian real estate
India 10-year government bonds
Indian rupee
US private credit
▾
HIGH
India's growth data is credible.
India's GDP data is credible because non-government high-frequency indicators such as auto sales, cement volumes, corporate earnings and CapEx are improving; services exports are growing double digits, commercial real estate and pre-sales are strong, and system credit growth of 15-16% supports roughly 7.5% growth, so India's above-trend expansion is likely to persist.
INDA LONG
Indian real estate cycle is healthy.
Indian real estate activity is genuinely strong: commercial real estate leasing is robust, residential pre-sales are doing well, and the Indian real estate cycle is currently playing out well, giving the property sector a domestic tailwind.
Indian real estate LONG
India bond yields likely headed lower.
The RBI does not need to raise rates despite above-trend growth because there is still slack in the economy and sticky inflation is not yet visible; with fiscal consolidation underway, India's 10-year yield at 6.8% is likely headed lower, making Indian duration attractive.
India 10-year government bonds LONG
Rupee stability funded by inflows.
Large foreign deposit inflows, around $136 billion, have bought the rupee stability for one and a half years or more, and with India's current account deficit staying small even if oil is at $100, the risk that the RBI has to hike rates to defend the currency is very low.
Indian rupee LONG
US private credit looks wobbly.
The US private credit market is looking very wobbly after a long period of unusually low interest rates; with the US 10-year yield already elevated and bond markets not responding to official attempts to dampen yields, sustained high rates are likely to cause financial accidents.
US private credit AVOID
Watch US 10-year threshold.
US 10-year yields are already elevated at 4.8%, and a 5% threshold would be quite worrying; with bond markets refusing to respond to the Treasury secretary and volatility likely, the US long end is an important risk setup to monitor for broader market stress.
US10Y WATCH
HIGH
08:01
Sep 04
Sep 04
India space sector
India private space sector
▾
MED
Successful launch supports India space sector growth.
India's successful GSLV launch after two SLV failures restores confidence that ISRO's rocket technology is sound and paves the way for more missions, supporting India's broader space-sector growth.
India space sector LONG
Success revives India private space participation.
The launch success removes an overhang on private-sector participation and global interest in India's space ecosystem, with many private missions planned and reusable rocket tests underway.
India private space sector LONG
MED
07:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
KORU 1ST
Cosmax 1ST
161890.KS 1ST
Cosmecca Korea
Korea Cosmetics Manufacturing
▾
HIGH
Korean cosmetics stocks are defensive earnings leaders
The product mix is shifting from cheap, easy-to-switch mask packs toward higher-priced, stickier basic skincare such as sunscreen, serum and mist. Selling a 10,000 won serum at a 10% margin earns much more profit than a 1,000 won mask, and recent results show improving margins. For US sunscreen, OTC/FDA-style certification limits manufacturers to few players like Hankook Kolmar and Cosmecca Korea's subsidiary Englewood Lab, creating a barrier for competitors.
KORU LONG
Indie brand growth benefits Korean OEM/ODM makers
Korean OEM/ODM cosmetics makers are key beneficiaries because indie brands now scale globally through SNS and influencers, but still need to outsource manufacturing to companies like Cosmax, Hankook Kolmar, Cosmecca Korea and Korea Cosmetics Manufacturing. Global multi-brand shops such as Olive Young, Sephora and Ulta give these indie products offline experience and volume, supporting continued orders for Korean manufacturers.
Cosmax LONG
161890.KS LONG
Cosmecca Korea LONG
Korea Cosmetics Manufacturing LONG
Multi-brand beauty retailers earn recurring entry fees
Global multi-brand beauty retailers such as Ulta Beauty, Sephora and Olive Young run a fee/commission model, taking roughly 20-30% of sales like a department-store or platform fee. As indie beauty brands enter and sell through these stores, the retailers earn recurring, sales-linked fee income, which is why Olive Young is expanding into the US and global chains are widening their footprint.
ULTA WATCH
Watch companies mixing cosmetics with other businesses
Companies that combine cosmetics with other businesses deserve attention because cosmetics is becoming a meaningful earnings driver. Dongkook Pharmaceutical's cosmetics sales have grown to about 30% of revenue; Shinsegae International sells fashion and perfume alongside cosmetics; Aekyung Industrial also runs a cosmetics business, providing diversified exposure to the K-beauty theme.
Dongkook Pharmaceutical WATCH
003070.KS WATCH
A122900.KQ WATCH
Low-price beauty brands expand overseas now
Low-price legacy Korean beauty brands such as It's Hanbul, TonyMoly and Able C&C (Missha) have not rallied as much as premium/overseas-focused leaders, and they are now building overseas distribution. TonyMoly is preparing to sell through US Costco and Ulta Beauty, and their target market differs from higher-priced brands, so they have catch-up potential.
ITHUF LONG
TonyMoly LONG
078520.KS LONG
F&F benefits from foreign tourist MLB purchases
F&F, which owns the MLB brand, benefits from inbound tourism because Chinese consumers prefer buying MLB apparel in Korea rather than China. The Korean-made/original brand image creates a reason for foreign tourists to purchase in Korea, supporting F&F as a tourism-adjacent consumer play.
F&F LONG
HIGH
07:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
CNBC
11h
CAT 1ST
CMI 1ST
PWR
SPY
▾
HIGH
CAT, CMI, PWR uptrends bottom before November.
Caterpillar, Cummins, and Quanta Services are in good long-term uptrends; the current pullbacks are corrections in uptrends and, following the typical midterm pattern, these names should bottom ahead of November and move higher.
CAT LONG
CMI LONG
PWR LONG
September stocks face midterm-year seasonal weakness.
Historically, September is the worst month for stocks and the only down month of the year; in a midterm year it is particularly painful, so investors may face a month of real choppiness.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
06:56
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO
DIESEL
▾
MED
Watch oil and diesel amid Hormuz risk.
Military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz appears to be easing, which is pressuring crude intraday, but oil flows remain below prewar levels and Brent is still heading for a weekly gain; she says to monitor energy prices, especially U.S. diesel, which remains at a four-year high.
BNO WATCH
DIESEL WATCH
MED
06:54
Sep 04
Sep 04
EWY FLIP
KWEB FLIP
Japanese Exporters
Japanese domestic demand stocks
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Asian tech gains on Fed hold bets
Asian stocks extended gains as investors pared Federal Reserve rate-hike bets after Christopher Waller's comments. Technology shares led because they are most sensitive to rates, with the KOSPI up more than 1% and Hong Kong tech stocks up more than 2%, while a weaker dollar also supported Asian currencies.
EWY LONG
KWEB LONG
Stronger yen favors Japan domestic demand
A stronger yen driven by Bank of Japan rate-hike bets and intervention wariness is hitting Japanese exporters, especially automakers, because dollar earnings translate into fewer yen. Domestic demand-driven stocks such as supermarkets, retailers and restaurants are gaining because a stronger yen is likely to boost local spending power.
Japanese Exporters AVOID
Japanese domestic demand stocks LONG
BOJ meeting shapes USD/JPY big move
The Bank of Japan's September meeting is a marquee event. Investors may not want to test pushing dollar-yen higher before it, but if the BOJ does not deliver a hike or guidance for another hike, investors will likely push dollar-yen back up toward 160. If the BOJ tone changes, the downside move could become disorderly.
USD/JPY WATCH
Brent rises on Iran risk premium
Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks and the absence of a peace deal are reviving a geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude. Brent is back in the 90s as fear emerges again, even though it is not yet at the 120 level seen in March when pipeline and refinery attacks were worse.
BNO LONG
European gas stays costly into winter
Europe is not facing immediate gas shortages, but storage at the lowest level in a decade means refilling before winter will be very expensive. EU gas prices are already more than double prewar levels and may need to reach triple prewar levels with Asia competing for LNG, keeping procurement costs high.
UNG LONG
HIGH
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