Building The Perfect Portfolio In 2026 | Tushar Jain & Pranav Kanade
Speakers
Summary
- The "Phoenix" Market Cycle: The speakers argue the crypto market is in the "apathy" phase (the bottom), where the "phoenix has burnt down and is about to hatch." They believe the industry has structurally changed due to institutional underwriting (BlackRock, politicians), making a zero-value outcome impossible.
- The "Pair Trade of the Cycle": A major capital rotation is predicted from Layer 1 blockchains (Infrastructure) to Applications (DeFi/DePIN). Tushar notes that applications currently capture 60% of the value but hold a minority of the market cap, creating a massive mispricing.
- AI as a Deflationary Force: Tushar argues AI will be massively deflationary, prompting governments to print money (stimulus) to redistribute surplus. This monetary expansion will drive asset prices up, particularly for scarce assets.
- The "Fake Job" Thesis: A contrarian view that AI won't automate "fake jobs" (regulatory/compliance/union-mandated roles) as quickly as predicted because those jobs exist for political, not productive, reasons.
Trade Ideas
"I don't think stable coin transfers deliver almost any value to a blockchain... they have to be essentially free." The market overvalues L1 blockchains based on the metric of "transfer volume." If transaction fees race to zero (to support AI agents and payments), L1s lose their primary revenue driver. The "fat protocol" thesis is dead; value accrues to the app, not the base layer. AVOID Layer 1s relative to Applications (The short leg of the pair trade). L1s could develop new monetization layers or maintain a monetary premium as "digital gold/oil."
"Whoever owns the customer relationship... and whoever owns the liquidity [wins]." AI agents and users will seek the path of least resistance. The value in crypto infrastructure won't accrue to the "pipes" (blockchains) but to the regulated endpoints that own the customer (Robinhood) and the deep liquidity pools (Coinbase). They are "natural monopolies." LONG Regulated Crypto/Fintech Infrastructure. Fee compression; decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Hyperliquid stealing market share.
Tushar Jain
Co-founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital
"Applications capture 60% of the value but have a minority of the market cap... that to me looks like an opportunity." As professional investors enter the space, they will value assets based on discounted cash flows (DCF). DeFi protocols (Aave, Maker) generate sustainable revenue ($10s of millions), whereas Layer 1 blockchains are priced on speculative monetary premiums. Capital will rotate into these cash-flowing "equities of crypto." LONG DeFi "Blue Chips" with proven revenue models. Regulatory hurdles remain; "fee switches" (returning capital to token holders) could face legal challenges.
Tushar Jain
Co-founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital
"Markets hate uncertainty and with the two cap table structure right now markets perceive some uncertainty on value capture." Helium is undervalued because of the complex split between the company (Nova Labs) and the token (HNT). As the industry consolidates these structures (folding labs into protocols to align value), the uncertainty discount will vanish, repricing the asset higher to match its utility. LONG HNT as a restructuring play. Regulatory "hangover" persists; failure to successfully merge/align the entities.
Tushar Jain
Co-founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital
"I think nuclear has a ton of opportunity... not just because of demand side because of AI but also I think the innovations to build safe nuclear reactors will be faster." AI drives a dual-tailwind for nuclear: 1) Massive energy demand from data centers, and 2) AI accelerates the material science required to build safer, cheaper reactors. This creates a structural supercycle for uranium and nuclear infrastructure. LONG Nuclear producers and miners. Regulatory gridlock; public perception of nuclear safety; long lead times for reactor construction.
Tushar Jain
Co-founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital
"I think we're going to see ASICs everywhere because chip design has been one of the most human capital constrained things out there." Chip design software (EDA) has been limited by the number of human engineers. AI removes this bottleneck, allowing companies to design custom chips (ASICs) for every specific workload. This leads to an explosion in volume for the software providers that power chip design. LONG EDA Software monopolies (Cadence/Synopsys). AI models eventually writing their own chip design code without legacy EDA tools (disintermediation).
Tushar Jain
Co-founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital
"AI is not making any more land." In a future where AI creates an abundance of digital goods and labor (deflation), capital will flee to assets that cannot be printed or automated. Physical land becomes the ultimate store of value and scarcity. LONG Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Commercial real estate collapse due to remote work/AI displacing office jobs.
Pranav Kanade
Portfolio Manager, VanEck
"The winners in the equity markets right now have been concentrated in... memory stocks... areas of scarcity where there's a supply demand imbalance." While the rate of change for general Hyperscaler Capex may slow, specific components like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) remain the bottleneck for AI compute. These companies hold pricing power regardless of the broader tech cycle. LONG Memory manufacturers. Cyclical nature of the memory market; oversupply if Capex slows significantly.
Up Next
This Empire video, published March 03, 2026, features Tushar Jain, Pranav Kanade discussing ETH, SOL, COIN, HOOD, MKR, AAVE, UNI, HNT, CCJ, URA, CDNS, SNPS, VNQ, MU. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Tushar Jain, Pranav Kanade · Tickers: ETH, SOL, COIN, HOOD, MKR, AAVE, UNI, HNT, CCJ, URA, CDNS, SNPS, VNQ, MU