State of The Market, How to Value Hyperliquid & Tempo Launches Mainnet

Summary

• Macroeconomic risks from the Iran conflict have driven oil prices from ~$70 to over $120 per barrel, with supply shocks due to Strait of Hormuz closure and attacks on LNG infrastructure, creating inflationary pressures and reducing Fed rate cut expectations to one in 2024, which is negative for risk assets like crypto.
• Hyperliquid announced a partnership with S&P to license S&P 500 perpetuals, reinforcing its dominance in on-chain derivatives; it generated $140M in revenue over the last 90 days, leading among protocols.
• Valuation debate: Santiago Santos argues that applications like Hyperliquid can accrue more value than underlying L1s and should be valued on revenue multiples, while Jason Yanowitz contends that L1s enable value without directly capturing it, making revenue-based valuation incomplete.
• Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain by Stripe and Paradigm, launched mainnet, prioritizing stablecoin transfers and partnering with Visa; discussion centers on whether Tempo itself accrues value or primarily benefits Stripe's ecosystem.
• Agentic commerce protocols like Tempo's MPP (Machine Payments Protocol) and others (e.g., X42) are emerging, but real activity is minimal, with adoption likely far in the future.
• Kraken's IPO is reportedly delayed, but speakers expect it within the next year absent major market disruptions, reflecting ongoing regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties.
• Competition in payments infrastructure (e.g., Solana, Polygon) is intensifying with Tempo's entry, which may benefit applications and consumers through lower costs and improved services.
• Hyperliquid's growth suggests strength in on-chain perpetual markets, but regulatory risks remain a headwind for expansion into institutional trading.
• The Iran war's duration and downstream effects on energy markets and inflation are key uncertainties that could dampen crypto rallies despite Bitcoin's relative resilience.
• Narrow observation: Poly Market opening a bar in DC is noted as a customer retention strategy, but not central to investment theses.