The Clarity Act, State of Crypto VC & LayerZero Launches Zero | Weekly Roundup
Speakers
Summary
- Regulatory Optimism: There is a growing consensus (estimated 45-55% probability) that a crypto market structure bill could pass in the US this year, providing a framework for token issuance and clarity for digital asset businesses.
- The "Stablecoin-ification" of Finance: The speakers predict a massive convergence where every major bank, asset manager, and fintech (Visa, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton) launches or integrates a stablecoin in 2024.
- Infrastructure vs. Demand: Santiago Roel Santos argues the industry is over-indexing on infrastructure upgrades (new L1s, faster consensus) while failing to solve the "demand side" problem, noting that current L2s could handle 100M more users without breaking.
- Prediction Markets War: The CFTC is aggressively asserting jurisdiction over prediction markets (Polymarket), setting the stage for a Supreme Court battle between federal regulators and state rights regarding "event contracts."
Trade Ideas
Rebecca states that the industry is "closer to the finish line than ever" regarding the market structure bill, estimating a ~45% chance of passing. She notes specific wins in the bill regarding "self-custody" and "issuing tokens in the US." Coinbase has been trading at a discount due to regulatory existential risk (SEC lawsuits). If a bill passes that explicitly allows for token issuance and protects non-custodial software, the primary bear case for Coinbase evaporates, and they become the primary regulated venue for these new assets. LONG as a play on regulatory clarity and the legalization of the US crypto-token market. The bill fails to pass in an election year; the "yield" component of stablecoins gets banned, hurting COIN's revenue from USDC.
Santi observes that despite the "hate" Ethereum receives, "Ethereum is winning that market" regarding traditional finance settlement. However, he argues the industry hasn't "solved for the demand side" and questions if new infrastructure is actually needed. While bullish on the concept of finance moving on-chain, Santi implies that simply building faster chains (supply) doesn't create users (demand). If TradFi moves on-chain, they will likely stick to the established winner (Ethereum) rather than speculative new L1s, but the overall sector growth depends on demand, not tech specs. WATCH ETH as the default settlement layer for TradFi, but remain cautious on "Alt-L1s" that promise speed without users. L2 fragmentation fractures liquidity; high fees on L1 drive users to Solana or other high-throughput chains.
Rob and Rebecca discuss the "BlackRock Uniswap integration" and mention that "Franklin Templeton" (BEN) is actively involved, with an executive potentially sitting on the LayerZero board. Rob states, "Global finance is moving on-chain." Traditional asset managers are not just dabbling; they are integrating DeFi rails (Securitize, tokenized funds). This opens a new distribution channel for their products (money market funds on-chain) and modernizes their backend, reducing costs. LONG these asset managers as they capture the "Real World Asset" (RWA) tokenization trend. Regulatory friction slows down institutional adoption; on-chain liquidity remains fragmented.
Rob Hadick
General Partner, Dragonfly
Rob predicts, "On the crypto credit card side we're going to get hundred billion dollars worth of settlement with Visa." He also notes that "businesses are using stablecoins today" for B2B payments regardless of legislation. Stablecoins are moving from speculative trading tools to genuine payment rails. Visa is explicitly named as the settlement layer capturing this volume. As stablecoin usage grows to $10T (Rob's aggressive prediction) or even $100B in settlement, Visa captures fees without taking crypto balance sheet risk. LONG as a beneficiary of stablecoin volume settlement. Regulatory crackdown on stablecoins reduces overall transaction volume; competing L1 rails bypass Visa entirely.
Up Next
This Empire video, published February 13, 2026, features Rebecca Rettig, Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick discussing COIN, ETH, BLK, BEN, V. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Rebecca Rettig, Santiago R. Santos, Rob Hadick · Tickers: COIN, ETH, BLK, BEN, V