Rebecca states that the industry is "closer to the finish line than ever" regarding the market structure bill, estimating a ~45% chance of passing. She notes specific wins in the bill regarding "self-custody" and "issuing tokens in the US." Coinbase has been trading at a discount due to regulatory existential risk (SEC lawsuits). If a bill passes that explicitly allows for token issuance and protects non-custodial software, the primary bear case for Coinbase evaporates, and they become the primary regulated venue for these new assets. LONG as a play on regulatory clarity and the legalization of the US crypto-token market. The bill fails to pass in an election year; the "yield" component of stablecoins gets banned, hurting COIN's revenue from USDC.
Rebecca states that the industry is "closer to the finish line than ever" regarding the market structure bill, estimating a ~45% chance of passing. She notes specific wins in the bill regarding "self-custody" and "issuing tokens in the US." Coinbase has been trading at a discount due to regulatory existential risk (SEC lawsuits). If a bill passes that explicitly allows for token issuance and protects non-custodial software, the primary bear case for Coinbase evaporates, and they become the primary regulated venue for these new assets. LONG as a play on regulatory clarity and the legalization of the US crypto-token market. The bill fails to pass in an election year; the "yield" component of stablecoins gets banned, hurting COIN's revenue from USDC.