Yan Liberman 2.2 12 ideas

Speaker states he is "pretty long" on Bitcoin, citing favorable positioning and highlighting the news that Iran may charge for tolls in Bitcoin or Yuan as a "huge" fundamental development. Bitcoin's value proposition as a neutral, global store of value is strengthened in an increasingly multipolar world where the U.S. is no longer the undisputed guarantor of order, and nation-state adoption increases its utility. Bullish on Bitcoin as it fulfills its core purpose amid geopolitical fragmentation and new demand channels. A smooth geopolitical resolution reduces safe-haven demand; the toll news may be more headline than substance.

Speaker lists Hype as a core holding, expecting it "will do well as RWA becomes a bigger share of their OI," and notes positive headlines around volume and their evolution into "everything exchanges." The growth of Real-World Assets (RWA) on-chain directly increases the open interest and utility of the Hype perpetual exchange. Its upcoming Hippo 4 upgrade expands its product suite into prediction markets and unified accounts, potentially capturing new market share. Bullish due to fundamental growth drivers in its core business and successful product expansion. The protocol, like others discussed, carries significant admin key risk which could lead to a catastrophic exploit.

Speaker bought ENA after its announcement to diversify yield sources beyond treasuries, calling it "insanely underowned, super beaten down," and noting USDe supply has hit a floor. Ethena's plan to integrate new yield sources (e.g., prime lending, other debt) demonstrates the team's ability to find creative growth avenues. A floor in USDe supply establishes a base for potential future expansion. Bullish as the token is undervalued relative to the team's execution capability and the protocol's capacity for growth beyond the initial carry trade. New yield sources fail to perform or introduce unexpected risks; competition from other yield-bearing stablecoins intensifies.

Speaker names Venice and NEAR as interesting AI tokens, citing that teams are "still building" during the bear market. He states Venice's growth has been "through the roof" but is underappreciated. In a bear market, attrition makes high-quality, building teams more visible. Venice's significant but under-the-radar user growth and NEAR's continued development position them well for the next growth phase in AI and compute. Bullish on these specific AI-related crypto assets due to strong fundamental development and growth metrics that are not fully priced in. The broader AI narrative in crypto fades; growth metrics fail to translate into sustainable value capture.

Near Protocol is launching "Near AI" (private models with Trusted Execution Environments) and has pivoted successfully to "Intents." The token is now slightly deflationary due to fee burns. Near is positioning itself as the "User-Owned AI" stack, competing with centralized models by offering privacy and sovereign control. The deflationary tokenomics provide a fundamental floor that didn't exist in previous cycles. Long NEAR as a beta play on the intersection of Crypto and AI. Failure to gain traction against centralized AI giants; "pivot fatigue" if the narrative shifts again.

"Historically, it's usually touched the 200 week moving average... 200 week moving average at like 58k." Bitcoin is currently in a "chop" zone with downward variance. Technical history suggests a retest of the 200WMA is the standard bottoming procedure for the 4-year cycle. Wait for the ~$58k level to deploy capital; do not rush to bid the current chop. Front-running of the 200WMA level prevents the dip from going that low.

"It's really hard to own the index when you're that concentrated... seeing those [active] managers actually outperform because breadth is increasing." The "Mag 7" trade is overcrowded and facing diminishing returns. Capital is rotating into the remaining 493 S&P stocks (value/industrials) which have better relative valuations. Long Equal Weight S&P 500 to capture widening market breadth. A recession hits cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies.

"Apple... they do kind of own the end user... gargantuan balance sheet. They spend nothing on capex." In an environment where other tech giants are leveraging balance sheets for massive AI capex (increasing risk), Apple's cash-rich position and control of distribution (the iPhone) make it the premier defensive flight-to-safety trade within Big Tech. Long as a defensive rotation play. Failure to innovate in AI leads to perceived obsolescence.

"Options are still like it makes way too much sense for Robinhood to kill that... seems like such a natural fit for them." As crypto derivatives and on-chain options gain traction, Robinhood is the logical venue to capture retail flow by integrating these products (potentially via their own chain or simple UI). Long on the potential for dominant capture of the retail crypto-options market. Regulatory hurdles prevent product rollout; failure to execute against crypto-native competitors.

There is "blood in software names." AI agents are allowing users to bypass traditional SaaS tools by coding their own solutions or using APIs directly, eroding pricing power. The market is repricing software companies because their "moats" are being destroyed by AI efficiency. High-margin SaaS businesses are losing their ability to charge premiums, leading to a structural de-rating of the sector. Avoid Software/SaaS equities (represented by IGV). AI adoption might actually increase software usage volume, offsetting pricing power declines.