Hivemind: Surviving Market Chop, Is Crypto Bottoming & Reasons to Be Optimistic in 2026
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Apathy & Volatility Mispricing: Markets are characterized by "apathy." Equities are grinding near all-time highs despite losing momentum, while crypto chops downward (BTC ~66k). The panel believes volatility (VIX ~17-18) is significantly mispriced and should be trading in the mid-to-upper 20s given geopolitical risks (Iran) and liquidity conditions.
- SaaS Commoditization: A structural repricing is occurring in the Software/SaaS sector. AI and "cloud code" have commoditized software creation, eroding moats. Consequently, software stocks are trading with high volatility ("like altcoins") and are no longer viewed as safe compounders.
- The "Capex" Rotation: There is a shift away from high-capex Mag 7 names toward companies with cleaner balance sheets (Apple) or broader market exposure (Equal Weight S&P). The massive debt/capex required for AI infrastructure is creating balance sheet risks for traditional tech leaders.
- Crypto Cycle Positioning: Bitcoin is expected to test its 200-week moving average (~$58k) before a true bottom forms. The "easy" beta trade is over; the market is transitioning to a stock-picker's environment where value accrues to high-margin "tech" businesses (Exchanges) rather than generic governance tokens.
Trade Ideas
"Historically, it's usually touched the 200 week moving average... 200 week moving average at like 58k." Bitcoin is currently in a "chop" zone with downward variance. Technical history suggests a retest of the 200WMA is the standard bottoming procedure for the 4-year cycle. Wait for the ~$58k level to deploy capital; do not rush to bid the current chop. Front-running of the 200WMA level prevents the dip from going that low.
"Apple... they do kind of own the end user... gargantuan balance sheet. They spend nothing on capex." In an environment where other tech giants are leveraging balance sheets for massive AI capex (increasing risk), Apple's cash-rich position and control of distribution (the iPhone) make it the premier defensive flight-to-safety trade within Big Tech. Long as a defensive rotation play. Failure to innovate in AI leads to perceived obsolescence.
"Options are still like it makes way too much sense for Robinhood to kill that... seems like such a natural fit for them." As crypto derivatives and on-chain options gain traction, Robinhood is the logical venue to capture retail flow by integrating these products (potentially via their own chain or simple UI). Long on the potential for dominant capture of the retail crypto-options market. Regulatory hurdles prevent product rollout; failure to execute against crypto-native competitors.
Yan Liberman
Managing Partner, Delphi Ventures
"It's really hard to own the index when you're that concentrated... seeing those [active] managers actually outperform because breadth is increasing." The "Mag 7" trade is overcrowded and facing diminishing returns. Capital is rotating into the remaining 493 S&P stocks (value/industrials) which have better relative valuations. Long Equal Weight S&P 500 to capture widening market breadth. A recession hits cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies.
Jason Pagoulatos
Head of Markets, Delphi Research
"Volatility is super mispriced... we're thinking it should be trading much higher than it is probably like mid-20s upper 20s versus 17-18." The market is complacent at all-time highs with thinning momentum and accelerating geopolitical rumors (Iran). A "V-spike" (capitulation event) is statistically overdue and necessary to reset valuations for a safe entry. Long volatility as a hedge or speculative play on a market correction. Continued market apathy/grind-up (theta decay on volatility products).
Jason Pagoulatos
Head of Markets, Delphi Research
"Software names... trading like our altcoins... it's more of like a repricing now that everybody's kind of realizing that software is commoditized with cloud code." AI agents and coding assistants allow for the cheap, rapid replication of software products. This destroys the "moat" that historically justified high valuation multiples for SaaS companies. Avoid the sector as it undergoes a structural de-rating. AI integration actually boosts SaaS productivity/margins faster than commoditization hurts pricing power.
Up Next
This Empire video, published February 19, 2026, features Yan Liberman, Jason Pagoulatos discussing IBIT, BITO, AAPL, HOOD, RSP, UVXY, VXX, IGV, CLOU. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Yan Liberman, Jason Pagoulatos · Tickers: IBIT, BITO, AAPL, HOOD, RSP, UVXY, VXX, IGV, CLOU