Jason Pagoulatos 2.0 9 ideas

"Volatility is super mispriced... we're thinking it should be trading much higher than it is probably like mid-20s upper 20s versus 17-18." The market is complacent at all-time highs with thinning momentum and accelerating geopolitical rumors (Iran). A "V-spike" (capitulation event) is statistically overdue and necessary to reset valuations for a safe entry. Long volatility as a hedge or speculative play on a market correction. Continued market apathy/grind-up (theta decay on volatility products).

"Software names... trading like our altcoins... it's more of like a repricing now that everybody's kind of realizing that software is commoditized with cloud code." AI agents and coding assistants allow for the cheap, rapid replication of software products. This destroys the "moat" that historically justified high valuation multiples for SaaS companies. Avoid the sector as it undergoes a structural de-rating. AI integration actually boosts SaaS productivity/margins faster than commoditization hurts pricing power.

Helium (HNT) is down ~99% from highs but is now profitable, generating revenue, and expanding operations (e.g., Mexico launch). The "DePin" (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) sector has been decimated, creating deep value opportunities. Unlike the hype phase, the project now has fundamental business traction while trading at a distressed valuation (<$200m implied). Long HNT as a deep value/turnaround play. The DePin sector may never recover investor sentiment; execution risk on physical network expansion.

Bitcoin has corrected to $74k. There are major technical levels (200-week moving average) and psychological support at $60k. The US administration has an incentive to stimulate the economy ("run it hot") leading into the midterm elections. This liquidity injection will eventually lift risk assets. The $60k-$74k zone represents a long-term accumulation area for strategic buyers. Buy spot BTC in the $60k-$74k range, anticipating a liquidity-driven rally later in the year. Equities market collapse (S&P 500 puking) would drag BTC lower; Quantum computing FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) causing structural selling.

Hyperliquid is trading at $33.70 and showing relative strength while the rest of the market (BTC/ETH/SOL) is selling off aggressively. It is generating significant revenue and volume (over $1 billion on silver perps). In market downturns, assets that show relative strength tend to lead the recovery ("the fastest horse"). Hyperliquid is decoupling from the broader crypto beta because it is a revenue-generating business shipping products users need now (HIP-3, Spot, EVM), rather than promising future tech. Long HYPE as the primary "flight to quality" within crypto. Regulatory crackdown on decentralized exchanges; valuation concerns if the broader market capitulates further.

Solana has dropped under $100, a psychological and technical support level. While the "L1 premium" is fading, Solana is viewed as a functional business compared to Ethereum. Even if L1s re-rate lower, Solana is significantly undervalued relative to Ethereum at these levels. The speaker explicitly states they "don't see how you can hold ETH over SOL" and would rather ride SOL to zero than hold ETH. Accumulate SOL in the $90s as a high-beta play for when risk appetite returns. Continued apathy toward L1s; further market-wide liquidation cascades.

Ethereum is trading at $2.15k with a market cap of ~$260 billion. Vitalik Buterin recently posted about pivoting back to scaling the L1, admitting the L2 roadmap had flaws. Ethereum is priced like a massive tech monopoly (comparable to Anthropic) but operates like a "non-profit research experiment" with bureaucracy and no cohesive product direction. The pivot back to L1 scaling after years of L2 focus destroys confidence in the roadmap. It lacks the revenue of Hyperliquid and the performance culture of Solana. Avoid ETH; it is the "funding source" for the market correction and lacks a bullish narrative compared to competitors. ETH flows could return if it is viewed as a safe haven or "money" during extreme volatility.