Hivemind: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $80k, State of The Market & The AI Trade
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Resilience: Despite geopolitical tensions (US/Iran strikes) and equity volatility, Bitcoin and crypto markets have shown decoupling strength, breaking key levels while stocks faltered.
- The AI Pivot: The "Hyperscaler" trade (Microsoft, Amazon) is viewed as crowded and potentially lower-margin moving forward as they become commoditized hardware businesses. The real value is shifting to the energy bottleneck and specific model/application layers.
- Generational Short: A high-conviction bearish thesis is forming around IT outsourcing (specifically Indian firms), as AI agents are expected to decimate white-collar service jobs.
- Defense Supercycle: European defense spending is viewed as "up only" due to structural rearmament needs (800B EUR commitment), regardless of US political outcomes.
Trade Ideas
Bitcoin held strong (-5% to -7% historically, but flat/up this time) while equities sold off on bad weekend news (Iran strikes). It is breaking important technical levels at $73k. The decoupling of crypto from equities during a "risk-off" geopolitical event signals a shift in market structure and renewed institutional appetite. Long Bitcoin as a hedge and momentum play. Escalation of war in the Middle East leading to a broader liquidity crunch.
Near Protocol is launching "Near AI" (private models with Trusted Execution Environments) and has pivoted successfully to "Intents." The token is now slightly deflationary due to fee burns. Near is positioning itself as the "User-Owned AI" stack, competing with centralized models by offering privacy and sovereign control. The deflationary tokenomics provide a fundamental floor that didn't exist in previous cycles. Long NEAR as a beta play on the intersection of Crypto and AI. Failure to gain traction against centralized AI giants; "pivot fatigue" if the narrative shifts again.
Hyperscalers are becoming hardware businesses with compressing margins, but the compute build-out will last for 5 years. The primary bottleneck is energy. To play the AI boom without the crowded hyperscaler valuation risk, capital must flow to the power generation infrastructure required to run the chips. Gas turbines (Siemens, Bloom) and nuclear/grid infra (Constellation) are the "picks and shovels" of the next phase. Long Energy Infrastructure and Gas Turbine manufacturers. Regulatory hurdles for new energy deployment or a slowdown in AI capex.
Europe has committed 800 billion euros to rearmament by 2030. Trump is forcing NATO members to hit 5% spending targets. Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is structurally forced to re-arm. This creates a guaranteed revenue pipeline for European defense contractors that is decoupled from the US tech cycle. Long European Defense Prime Contractors (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems). Geopolitical de-escalation reducing urgency for spending.
Speaker is traveling to China to meet founders; believes the market is mispricing the innovation happening there. Contrarian stance—while the West focuses on US AI, Chinese markets have been battered and offer deep value, particularly in tech and manufacturing sectors that are innovating independently of US supply chains. Long China Tech/Indices. Further US sanctions or domestic regulatory crackdowns in China.
Leopold Aschenbrenner (referenced investor) has shorted Infosys. The Indian IT outsourcing sector is a $300B industry representing 8% of the economy. AI agents are rapidly becoming capable of performing the specific white-collar tasks (coding, support, data) that are currently outsourced. This structural displacement renders the traditional "body shop" outsourcing model obsolete. Short IT Outsourcing firms. AI adoption takes longer than expected; companies successfully pivot to "AI-enabled" services.
Galaxy Digital is "coming back from the dead" (up 12%) and investors are repurposing Bitcoin miners for High-Performance Computing (HPC). As the market hunts for compute capacity, companies with existing power and hardware infrastructure (miners/Galaxy) are being repriced as AI infrastructure plays rather than just crypto proxies. Long Galaxy Digital (US OTC ticker for Galaxy). Bitcoin price crash or failure to execute on the HPC transition.
Up Next
This Empire video, published March 05, 2026, features Ceteris, Yan Liberman, José María Macedo discussing BTC, NEAR, SIEGY, BE, CEG, RNMBY, BAESY, KWEB, FXI, INFY, BRPHF. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ceteris, Yan Liberman, José María Macedo · Tickers: BTC, NEAR, SIEGY, BE, CEG, RNMBY, BAESY, KWEB, FXI, INFY, BRPHF