José María Macedo 5.0 8 ideas

Hyperscalers are becoming hardware businesses with compressing margins, but the compute build-out will last for 5 years. The primary bottleneck is energy. To play the AI boom without the crowded hyperscaler valuation risk, capital must flow to the power generation infrastructure required to run the chips. Gas turbines (Siemens, Bloom) and nuclear/grid infra (Constellation) are the "picks and shovels" of the next phase. Long Energy Infrastructure and Gas Turbine manufacturers. Regulatory hurdles for new energy deployment or a slowdown in AI capex.

Leopold Aschenbrenner (referenced investor) has shorted Infosys. The Indian IT outsourcing sector is a $300B industry representing 8% of the economy. AI agents are rapidly becoming capable of performing the specific white-collar tasks (coding, support, data) that are currently outsourced. This structural displacement renders the traditional "body shop" outsourcing model obsolete. Short IT Outsourcing firms. AI adoption takes longer than expected; companies successfully pivot to "AI-enabled" services.

Europe has committed 800 billion euros to rearmament by 2030. Trump is forcing NATO members to hit 5% spending targets. Regardless of the US election outcome, Europe is structurally forced to re-arm. This creates a guaranteed revenue pipeline for European defense contractors that is decoupled from the US tech cycle. Long European Defense Prime Contractors (Rheinmetall, BAE Systems). Geopolitical de-escalation reducing urgency for spending.

Speaker is traveling to China to meet founders; believes the market is mispricing the innovation happening there. Contrarian stance—while the West focuses on US AI, Chinese markets have been battered and offer deep value, particularly in tech and manufacturing sectors that are innovating independently of US supply chains. Long China Tech/Indices. Further US sanctions or domestic regulatory crackdowns in China.