Hivemind: Are L1s Still Overvalued, Hyperliquid’s End Game & State of The Market
Speakers
Summary
- The crypto market is undergoing a severe correction (BTC at $74k, ETH at $2.15k, SOL under $100), driven by apathy and a rotation out of "L1 premiums" into revenue-generating assets.
- A major regime shift is occurring where "Store of Value" or "Tech Roadmap" assets (like Ethereum) are losing favor to businesses with immediate product-market fit and revenue (like Hyperliquid).
- The "L1 Thesis" is being challenged; simply being a blockchain infrastructure layer is no longer sufficient for a multi-billion dollar valuation without specific, profitable applications.
- Despite short-term bearishness, the macro view remains that the US administration will run the economy "hot" into the midterms, providing a floor for risk assets later in the year.
Trade Ideas
Ethereum is trading at $2.15k with a market cap of ~$260 billion. Vitalik Buterin recently posted about pivoting back to scaling the L1, admitting the L2 roadmap had flaws. Ethereum is priced like a massive tech monopoly (comparable to Anthropic) but operates like a "non-profit research experiment" with bureaucracy and no cohesive product direction. The pivot back to L1 scaling after years of L2 focus destroys confidence in the roadmap. It lacks the revenue of Hyperliquid and the performance culture of Solana. Avoid ETH; it is the "funding source" for the market correction and lacks a bullish narrative compared to competitors. ETH flows could return if it is viewed as a safe haven or "money" during extreme volatility.
Bitcoin has corrected to $74k. There are major technical levels (200-week moving average) and psychological support at $60k. The US administration has an incentive to stimulate the economy ("run it hot") leading into the midterm elections. This liquidity injection will eventually lift risk assets. The $60k-$74k zone represents a long-term accumulation area for strategic buyers. Buy spot BTC in the $60k-$74k range, anticipating a liquidity-driven rally later in the year. Equities market collapse (S&P 500 puking) would drag BTC lower; Quantum computing FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) causing structural selling.
Hyperliquid is trading at $33.70 and showing relative strength while the rest of the market (BTC/ETH/SOL) is selling off aggressively. It is generating significant revenue and volume (over $1 billion on silver perps). In market downturns, assets that show relative strength tend to lead the recovery ("the fastest horse"). Hyperliquid is decoupling from the broader crypto beta because it is a revenue-generating business shipping products users need now (HIP-3, Spot, EVM), rather than promising future tech. Long HYPE as the primary "flight to quality" within crypto. Regulatory crackdown on decentralized exchanges; valuation concerns if the broader market capitulates further.
Jason Pagoulatos
Head of Markets, Delphi Research
Helium (HNT) is down ~99% from highs but is now profitable, generating revenue, and expanding operations (e.g., Mexico launch). The "DePin" (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure) sector has been decimated, creating deep value opportunities. Unlike the hype phase, the project now has fundamental business traction while trading at a distressed valuation (<$200m implied). Long HNT as a deep value/turnaround play. The DePin sector may never recover investor sentiment; execution risk on physical network expansion.
Jason Pagoulatos
Head of Markets, Delphi Research
Solana has dropped under $100, a psychological and technical support level. While the "L1 premium" is fading, Solana is viewed as a functional business compared to Ethereum. Even if L1s re-rate lower, Solana is significantly undervalued relative to Ethereum at these levels. The speaker explicitly states they "don't see how you can hold ETH over SOL" and would rather ride SOL to zero than hold ETH. Accumulate SOL in the $90s as a high-beta play for when risk appetite returns. Continued apathy toward L1s; further market-wide liquidation cascades.
Yan Liberman
Managing Partner, Delphi Ventures
There is "blood in software names." AI agents are allowing users to bypass traditional SaaS tools by coding their own solutions or using APIs directly, eroding pricing power. The market is repricing software companies because their "moats" are being destroyed by AI efficiency. High-margin SaaS businesses are losing their ability to charge premiums, leading to a structural de-rating of the sector. Avoid Software/SaaS equities (represented by IGV). AI adoption might actually increase software usage volume, offsetting pricing power declines.
Up Next
This Empire video, published February 05, 2026, features Jason Pagoulatos, Yan Liberman discussing ETH, BTC, HYPE, HNT, SOL, IGV. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jason Pagoulatos, Yan Liberman · Tickers: ETH, BTC, HYPE, HNT, SOL, IGV