Terra vs Jane Street, Circle Earnings & Robinhood’s Venture Fund | Weekly Roundup
Speakers
Summary
- Stablecoin Regulatory Moat: The OCC's new guidance restricting yield pass-through on stablecoins is interpreted as a defensive move by the banking lobby to protect low-cost deposits from fintech disruption.
- Robinhood's Private Equity Pivot: Robinhood is launching a publicly traded closed-end fund to give retail investors access to late-stage private companies (Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks), potentially solving the "access" problem and creating a scalable revenue stream.
- Circle's Valuation Surge: Secondary market data suggests Circle's stock price has jumped from ~$60 to ~$90 (+50%) recently, driven by a better revenue mix shift (more off-platform USDC) and strong earnings (EPS $0.43 vs $0.16 expected).
- Tether's Diversification: Tether is using its massive balance sheet to entrench its position, investing $200M into the creator marketplace Whop (referred to as "WAP" in transcript).
Trade Ideas
Circle (issuer of USDC) posted strong earnings (beating consensus $0.43 vs $0.16) and its secondary market stock price is up ~50% ($60 to $90). Coinbase is the primary strategic partner and equity holder in Circle. While the speaker notes a "mix shift" where more USDC is off-Coinbase (meaning Coinbase takes a smaller % of the *total* pie), the massive expansion of the pie (Circle's valuation and adoption) directly benefits Coinbase's balance sheet and equity investment. If Circle is the "only pure play" on stablecoins and is winning, Coinbase is the best public proxy. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoins; continued margin compression if USDC moves off-platform.
Robinhood is launching a "billion-dollar closed-end fund" (likely an IPO'd vehicle) that holds shares in high-demand private companies like Stripe, SpaceX, and Databricks. Historically, Robinhood struggled to offer private shares due to transfer restrictions (RoFRs) and operational friction (SPVs). By aggregating this into a public closed-end fund, they solve the "access" problem for retail and the "liquidity" problem for employees/founders. This creates a highly differentiated product with a recurring 2% management fee, positioning HOOD as the bridge between retail and private equity. LONG. This is a scalable structural advantage that competitors lack. Volatility in the underlying private marks; potential discount to NAV for the closed-end fund.
The host highlights Michael Burry's recent analysis on Palantir, calling it "pretty eye-opening." Michael Burry is a legendary contrarian value investor. His attention on a specific ticker usually signals a deep dislocation (either a value buy or a conviction short). While the specific direction wasn't detailed in the clip, the endorsement of the *analysis* suggests PLTR is at a pivotal inflection point worthy of immediate attention. WATCH. Burry's positions are often volatile and contrarian; without reading the specific Substack entry, the direction is ambiguous.
Santiago R. Santos
Founder and CEO, Inversion Capital
The OCC released guidance effectively prohibiting stablecoin issuers from passing yield to end customers. The speaker notes, "This is basically just being done to protect the banks... banks are scared shitless." While the speaker views this as "regressive" for innovation, the second-order effect is bullish for incumbent banks. By legally blocking fintechs/stablecoins from offering yield on deposits, the government is enforcing a "regulatory moat" that protects the banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) and prevents deposit flight to higher-yielding digital alternatives. LONG (Regulatory Capture Play). The banking lobby is successfully neutralizing the fintech threat. The guidance is just a proposal; future legislation could reverse this and allow yield pass-through.
Up Next
This Empire video, published February 27, 2026, features Jason Yanowitz, Santiago R. Santos discussing COIN, HOOD, PLTR, XLF, KRE. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jason Yanowitz, Santiago R. Santos · Tickers: COIN, HOOD, PLTR, XLF, KRE